tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86455024689677995782024-02-19T00:09:16.968-05:00Yet Another Basketball Blog (YABB)Championship Week, Printable Brackets, Coach Rankings, and Tempo Free Predictions for the SeasonDan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comBlogger446125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-51093326100606742172018-06-30T01:54:00.002-04:002018-06-30T01:54:20.155-04:00Comparing 2017-18 Preseason Rankings<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Five teams received first place votes in either the preseason AP or coach’s poll last year; Villanova was not one of those teams. But Ken Pomeroy's computer pegged Villanova as the best team in the nation in the preseason. Perhaps this is a reminder to poll voters to avoid group-think and not be afraid to stray from the consensus. <span style="color: #111111;">If Ken was best at the very top last year, John Gasaway had the most accurate Top 50 last year. And for the third time in four year's Sports Illustrated's projection of all 351 teams proved to be the most accurate for the full rankings.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Relative to the baseline (simply running the final Pomeroy rankings from the prior year), David Hess of Team Rankings, Ken Pomeroy, and John Gasaway all improved the average team's ranking by 9.5 to 9.9 slots. <span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Clearly, their model's moved the needle quite far in the correct direction. The SI model, a combination of effort from me (Dan Hanner), Chris Johnson, and Jeremy Fuchs ended up being the most accurate, improving the average team's ranking by 11.65 spots relative to simply running the prior year's final standings.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Rank, Publication (Author), Improvement over Baseline<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;">1<sup>st</sup>, SI (Hanner, Johnson, Fuchs), +11.65 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;">2<sup>nd</sup>, Team Rankings (Hess), +9.90<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">3<sup>rd</sup>, Pomeroy Preseason, + 9.55<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">4<sup>th</sup>, ESPN (Gasaway), +9.53<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">5<sup>th</sup>, ESPN BPI, +6.70<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">6<sup>th</sup>, Torvik Rank, +6.68<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">7<sup>th</sup>, CBS Sports, +5.49<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br /></span>Full details about these numbers are found at the end of this post.<br />
<strong></strong><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">For the last seven years, I have had the honor of ranking 351 teams for either ESPN the Magazine or Sports Illustrated. I am thankful to everyone who gave me this opportunity and worked with me along the way. <span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">I still remember when my late grandfather gave me my
first subscription to SI. I fell in love with the SI preview editions
and it was a dream come true to contribute to these for so many years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
But it shouldn't be a huge surprise when I announce I am stepping away from this process. After I gave up my column on RealGM.com a few years ago, I have been cutting back on how much college basketball I watch. And I don't feel it is appropriate to rank all these players and teams as I continue to cut-back on how much I watch.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Our SI player level projections have always been partly based
on crunching the numbers, and partly based on scouting. We would take input
from coaches and beat reporters to tweak the rotations for teams (usually the
minutes for players, but also sometimes ORtg and usage rates), based on what
people were seeing in practice. We got to the point of even including summer
tour data in our analysis. It was awesome to see the results every year, but it
became almost too time consuming to include all these inputs. Once you allow
the ability to make these manual scouting adjustments, you essentially add a
potentially unlimited amount of work to the project.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">No one has quite matched what we have done, but I also go
back to the above numbers and conclude that the effort is not quite worth it.
At SI we were able to improve on what Pomeroy, Gasaway, and Hess have done, but not
to a huge degree. And there remains substantial noise, substantial uncertainty
each year, that will probably never be overcome, due to the fact that college basketball players are at a very developmental point of their
lives.</span></span></div>
<br />
You probably assume my departure from SI is related to all the media shake-ups that have happened. I would say only barely so. Sure, if there were huge amounts of money being thrown around for basketball columns, I might stick around. But this is more about personal time than money. I was fortunate to do this as a part-time job for as long as I did.<br />
<br />
I also don't assume this will be the end of my sports writing career. I hope that some day I have the energy to blog every day of the NCAA tournament again. I hope that I can do more to publicize sporting events the public is missing out on. (<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">For example, I think it is a crime that more people did not hear about this year’s NCAA women’s gymnastics final. Oklahoma posted a dominant score only to see UCLA’s red-shirt senior Peng Peng Lee close the meet with back to back perfect 10’s to give UCLA the National Title by the slimmest of margins. It was easily one of the most compelling sports moments of this entire year.) There are still stories to tell, and I am not done telling them. But I am done ranking college basketball teams for now.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">...If you are sad to see the player projections go away…<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Please continue to follow the work of Bart Torvik. While his
team model did a little worse last year, his website started to show some
player projections last year, and I feel he is on the brink of greatness.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">...If you want some input on doing this yourself…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">I continue to make two points. First, scouting matters.
Follow the twitter feeds of beat reporters. College players develop rapidly and
what beat reporters see happening in practice is real.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Second, I continue to believe that the AAU data is getting
more and more accurate at predicting college. Trae Young wasn’t a Top 10
recruit, but his AAU data was off the charts. He had a 32% usage rate and 130
ORtg on the AAU circuit. His success in college should not have been a
surprise. Whether it translates to the NBA is another question, but when projecting college basketball, don’t overlook the statistically
dominant AAU players who don’t have NBA size or quickness. If someone is
efficient and high volume on the AAU circuit, they can play college basketball.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p><span style="color: #111111;"></span></o:p><span style="color: #111111;"><strong>Final Details</strong></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">And for you raw number nerds, here is how I evaluated the preseason rankings from last year. <span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">For each set of preseason predictions, I take the difference between each team’s preseason ranking and its final Sagarin ranking, take the absolute value of each difference, and add up the total over 351 teams. (I am using the final Sagarin rating rather than the final Pomeroy ranking, since one of the things we are evaluating is Pomeroy’s system. Nonetheless, if we used the Final Pomeroy instead, the results are very similar.)<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">I start with a baseline which is simply the final Pomeroy ranking of teams 1-351 from 2016-2017, and I take the difference between each ranking system and this baseline in the table above.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">Here was the raw data before the calculations:</span></span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: #111111;">2017-18 Preseason Predictions:</span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbUA3iimNal2Bkd6mD8rTCgrW403BT0aYml9GhOkS1qkylqV2tzbHgKZMTwDy1rbeR651PS4a_zZtI/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" style="height: 7500px; width: 900px;"></iframe><br />
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-27352975432942406842017-10-04T23:06:00.005-04:002017-10-04T23:07:50.645-04:00Comparing 2016-17 Preseason Rankings<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Quick FYI: Our preseason SI college basketball material begins to roll out next week.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">One piece of business I wanted to take care of before the rollout of this year's material, is a comparison of last year's preseason rankings.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">2017 was
a weird year. Every ranking system under the sun had Duke #1 and they did not
live up to the hype despite immense talent. Meanwhile many of the top freshman
(I’m thinking of Dennis Smith Jr. and Markelle Fultz) were great statistically,
but failed to elevate their teams. Meanwhile, Ken Pomeroy added transfers to
his model, but it turned out to be a year where transfers were not as impactful
as usual, and Pomeroy was actually hurt by this addition in a lot of places.
(See Syracuse). Finally, ESPN launched a second preseason rankings, the BPI preseason rankings, but the new system actually performed worse than the system their own ESPN Insider John Gasaway put online at the same time. Gasaway's preseason 351 crushed the BPI preseason 351.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Now, some people will look at the variance in college basketball and say that predicting the season is a fool's errand. And while there is always a lot of uncertainty, that doesn't mean that things like star ratings and AAU stats don't have some predictive power. I happen to believe that all of these rankings are useful, and together they paint a fair picture of preseason expectations. In fact, I personally consider the CBS rankings, that have fallen at the back of the pack in recent years, to be among the most important because they are based on coaching interviews and opinions, and that's an important additional data-point that many of the similar statistical systems don't catch.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As you will see below, last year our SI rankings beat CBS and ESPN again, so of the major websites, we won for a third year in a row. But the folks behind Torvik Rank actually took the top spot this year. After finishing 5th in 2016, I'm not quite convinced Torvik Rank has found the special sauce yet. I'd like to see a little more consistency first. But after last year, I highly recommend you follow them and read their work. Some of their ideas for evolving coach effects, i.e. allowing for the possibility that Thad Matta and John Thompson III got worse over time, turned out to be an important part of Torvik Rank winning last year. </span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2015/09/t-rank-2016-preview-nuts-and-bolts.html"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2015/09/t-rank-2016-preview-nuts-and-bolts.html</span></a>
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">OK, so now onto the numbers. </span><span style="font-family: "calibri";">In the table below, I compared Sports Illustrated preseason rankings,
the ESPN preseason rankings by John Gasaway, the ESPN BPI preseason rankings,
the CBS Sports preseason rankings, Ken Pomeroy’s preseason rankings, David Hess’s
preseason rankings, and the Torvik Rank preseason rankings.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Then I calculated the total absolute error in each ranking system. The total absolute error is found by taking the absolute value of the
difference between each team’s preseason ranking and the end of season Sagarin
ranking and adding up the total.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">For the end of season rankings, David Hess
asked me to use Sagarin instead of Pomeroy so we were not using Pomeroy to
score Pomeroy, but I actually ran the numbers both ways and it didn’t make a major difference this year.
The astute reader will notice that switching from a Pomeroy system to a Sagarin system did raise David Hess’s ranking in 2016, however. (I kid, I'm sure that was unintentional.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This is certainly not the only way to compare the rankings. You may prefer to look at NCAA bids or conference titles or something else. But if you care about where every team is ranked, last year Torvik Rank finished first and Sports Illustrated finished second:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTKeQqWkJM7W-Kwo6Kh5a0yQoKJzLFn42V1QrKN6MeADY0VvMlLsZByn718Dxt2Emmlb03jp-z_ulIB/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" style="height: 500px; width: 500px;"></iframe></span></span><br />
<br />
I have intentionally left John Gasaway's rankings out of the second table, since they were only available behind a paywall, but I can assure you, he did in fact finish 3rd.<br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Onto the new season!</span></div>
</div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-55918310451748567252016-11-04T18:42:00.001-04:002016-11-04T18:45:51.854-04:00Returning Minutes and Number of Players Who Were Former Top 100 RecruitsIn our SI projections, we project every player and lineup to get our team projections.<br />
<br />
But I still get lots of requests for a list of returning minutes. That isn't a direct input into our model, though it is something I can easily calculate with the roster data I have.<br />
<br />
I cannot say that these numbers will be 100% accurate. We typically don't pull walk-on data unless those walk-ons are expected to play a lot. And we have to make some decisions about certain players. For example, this assumes Coastal Carolina's Shivaughn Wiggins will be able to return in the second semester. But it should be mostly accurate.<br />
<br />
I also list the number of RSCI Top 100 recruits on each roster. This includes current RSCI Top 100 freshmen, former RSCI Top 100 recruits (who are now sophomores, juniors, and seniors), and players that we think were incorrectly ranked by RSCI because they changed classes.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F-uig_ZNapVFTebWOmKQgjKLOBHYVb6A7Zy9iNPe6r0/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" style="height: 1200px; width: 340px;"></iframe></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span> </div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-76128137676640503282016-10-12T22:16:00.000-04:002016-10-12T22:32:56.161-04:00Comparison of 2016 Preseason Rankings<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">(Quick note: This column is talking about last year's preseason rankings. The 2016-17 preseason rankings will be released soon.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Ever since I partnered with Luke Winn at Sports
Illustrated, we’ve been doing something rather unique when it comes to projecting
the college basketball season. We project every D1 player, project every D1
lineup, and use those lineups to project every D1 team. I tend to think this is
a unique and worthwhile exercise regardless of the accuracy, but every year we
get questions about how our model has done in the past.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This year, we <a href="http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/10/12/team-rankings-projections-predictions-system"><span style="color: #0563c1;">wrote
a column</span></a> that shows that we think we have had the most accurate projections
for two years in a row. That said, as anyone who knows about statistics will
tell you, there are often different ways to spin results. Our approach is to
judge the preseason rankings based on the final ranking of teams 1-351 based on
margin-of-victory (MOV). If you focus on NCAA tournament bids, NCAA wins, or
conference wins, one of the other models may beat our model. But our feeling is
that since the season-long MOV does a good job predicting those other outcomes,
it is the best way to evaluate the rankings.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">To judge the models I simply took the absolute value
of the difference between each team’s preseason ranking minus the team's final MOV ranking and added up the absolute error for each model. (Taking the sum of the
squared errors produced the same ordering of the various ranking systems.) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The column linked to above also highlighted some of the teams where
the SI.com model did better than the other models and the teams where the SI.com model fell short.
But I was asked on Twitter for a full
comparison of all five preseason rankings from last year. In the interest of transparency, I list all five preseason rankings from last year below.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The first thing you will notice when you look at the full list of teams is that there were plenty of teams that surprised everyone. College basketball players are at a developmental
stage of their career, and we only have a small sample of useful statistics, so
not surprisingly there are positive and negative surprises every season. Still,
all of the models meaningfully improved on simply running the final rankings
from the previous year.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">One final comment, the Final 2016 MOV 1-351 ranking is based on
Ken Pomeroy’s final 2016 ranking as was on his website from April to August. I did
not update this analysis after he recently made the decision to tweak his
formula heading into this year.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jDqBtEKEyq0YFsieH_EvEn-_v4J-jVK3GZgKn7EWprQ/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" style="height: 800px; width: 800px;"></iframe><br />
<br />Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-42417075797558000182016-02-09T19:11:00.002-05:002016-02-09T19:11:49.487-05:00Big Ten Player Development<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I started this series to try to show the uniqueness of players like Colorado's George King and TCU's Vladamir Brodziansky. </span><span style="font-family: "calibri";">I look at the box scores every week and continue to be
surprised to see a three-star bench-warmer (King) become a breakout star and to see a JUCO transfer who was not highly publicized (Brodziansky) lead his team. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I also started this
series to check in on <span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">our
<a href="http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/20/top-scoring-freshmen-ben-simmons-lsu-jaylen-brown-cal"><span style="color: blue;">impact
freshmen</span></a> and <a href="http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/22/top-breakout-players-grayson-allen-duke-vj-beachem-notre-dame"><span style="color: blue;">breakout
scorers</span></a> lists </span>from
SI.com. For that reason, I wish I had time to show all the high major leagues
we previewed at SI. But due to time constraints, I am going to wrap this up
with the Big Ten. Part 6 of the series looks at every player in the Big Ten playing
roughly 20% of is team's minutes when active. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Big Ten Freshmen<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">15.9, 82%, 27%, 98.8, *Corey
Sanders, Rutgers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">12.9, 54%, 29%, 115.9, *+Diamond
Stone, Maryland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">12.3, 70%, 24%, 108.1, +Ethan
Happ, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">12.1, 56%, 22%, 125.1, *+Thomas
Bryant, Indiana<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">10.7, 59%, 24%, 105.5,
Jordan Murphy, Minnesota<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.9, 70%, 25%, 94.6, *+JaQuan
Lyle, Ohio St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.8, 66%, 24%, 94.1, *+Caleb
Swanigan, Purdue<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.8, 59%, 19%, 103.7, *+Jalen
Coleman, Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.1, 50%, 19%, 127.4,
Dererk Pardon, Northwestern<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.0, 61%, 17%, 116.7,
Aaron Falzon, Northwestern<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">8.8, 55%, 20%, 113.7,
Michael Finke, Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">8.6, 56%, 22%, 104.5, *+Glynn
Watson, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.8, 45%, 19%, 117.6, *+Deyonta
Davis, Michigan St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Players marked with a *
were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked
as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I am still kicking
myself about our SI Corey Sanders projection. The stats model loved Sanders to be
a major scorer in the preseason. He was Rutgers best player by far. But our SI
scouting said that Sanders was attempting to be a pass-first PG. And that might
have been true at first. But there is only so many times you can pass someone
the ball and watch them miss a wide open shot. At some point in the season, the
team just decided to give Sanders the ball and get out of the way, as seen by
his team freshman record 39 points in a recent game.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">And even if the scouting
led us astray on Sanders, scouting has substantially improved the projections. Despite
the fact that he was just a 3-star prospect, Luke Winn's personal scouting said
that Ethan Happ was going to be a star. And my limited scouting moved
Minnesota's Jordan Murphy up in the preseason. Murphy's recruiting rank suggested
he would barely play, but I at least moved him up into Minnesota's Top 7. So
even though the scouting caused us to miss on Sanders, if you look across the
board at all the teams, 95% of the time scouting made our projection better. A few other notes:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-The big question for Indiana's
Thomas Bryant wasn't whether or not he would score. The question was whether or
not he could improve Indiana's defense. And he has delivered as Indiana's two
point defense has improved from 283rd nationally to 137th. Overall, Indiana's defense
has improved from 214th to 49th. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-A lot of people thought
this might be the year that Northwestern finally made the NCAA tournament, but
in a down year in the Big Ten, their performance isn't quite good enough. And
distressingly, a lot of points will likely graduate along with Tre Demps and
Alex Olah. But that's why Dererk Pardon's story is so awesome. His 28 point, 12
rebound performance soon after debuting mid-season bring a lot of hope for next
year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-Illinois' Michael Finke
was a 3-star red-shirt player, the kind you might not expect that much from. In
fact, among Illinois forwards he had the 6th best statistical expectation when
I first ran the team's numbers this summer. But as three other big men left the
team or were injured, he moved up. Finke's development is one of the only
things that has gone right for Illinois this year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6.7, 54%, 17%, 96.3, Jonathan Jean Laurent, Rutgers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6.7, 45%, 25%, 85.9, Kevin Dorsey, Minnesota<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.7, 56%, 20%, 84.6, Josh Reaves, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.1, 37%, 15%, 124.9, Nicholas Baer, Iowa<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.9, 53%, 19%, 83.8,
Dupree McBrayer, Minnesota<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.9, 41%, 17%, 106.7,
Jack McVeigh, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.5, 41%, 14%, 121.2,
Michael Jacobson, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.2, 29%, 17%, 118.1,
Ogugua Anunoby, Indiana<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, 46%, 16%, 86.4, *Daniel
Giddens, Ohio St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.0, 31%, 16%, 106.5,
Aaron Jordan, Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.9, 41%, 14%, 113.2, *Matt
McQuaid, Michigan St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.8, 34%, 15%, 113.4,
Ryan Cline, Purdue<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.8, 34%, 17%, 98.9, *Ed
Morrow, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 35%, 15%, 104.6,
Deividas Zemgulis, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.1, 28%, 18%, 93.4,
Charlie Thomas, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.0, 35%, 15%, 90.9,
Khalil Iverson, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, 33%, 17%, 88.5, *A.J.
Harris, Ohio St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, 22%, 19%, 100.4, *Victor
Wagner, Michigan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 24%, 13%, 128.2,
Ahmad Wagner, Iowa<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 27%, 14%, 118.1,
Alex Illikainen, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.0, 37%, 9%, 96.3,
Justin Goode, Rutgers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 25%, 12%, 111.3,
Kenny Goins, Michigan St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, 22%, 18%, 82.5,
Mickey Mitchell, Ohio St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.7, 22%, 17%, 70.5, *D.J.
Williams, Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, 20%, 11%, 102.5,
Juwan Morgan, Indiana<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Four names I am not
listing above: Wisconsin's Brevin Pritzl, a Top 100 recruit forced to redshirt
due to injury; Ohio St.'s Austin Grandstaff, a Top 100 recruit who is
transferring; Penn St.'s Mike Watkins, a 4-star prospect who was not eligible,
and Rutger's Ibrahima Diallo, who played quite a bit early, but was injured.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Big Ten D3 Transfer<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">12.1, 70%, 18%, 132.0,
Duncan Robinson, Michigan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">There are not many players
that transition from D3 to D1, so I can't really show you comps to explain how
special Duncan Robinson's season has been. But there is no question he is very
unique. The experts were right that he is a lights out three point shooter. But
I'm not quite sure they were right about his ability to play in the paint.
Michigan's interior defense has been pretty poor this year and teams expose
Robinson inside when they can. I think Michigan views him as a stretch-four,
but I think he would be better off as a true-wing. Or perhaps he will be a
better interior defender and rebounder with another year of bulking up in the
weight room.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Big Ten JUCO<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.1, 19%, 15%, 114.4,
Jaylen Brantley, Maryland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">No debuting JUCOs have played a big role in the Big Ten this
year. Rutger's DeShawn Freeman and Iowa's Dale Jones might have made a bigger impact but they both
got hurt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Big Ten D1 Transfers<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">17.2, 72%, 24%, 123.3,
Andrew White, Nebraska, 2.6, Kansas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">13.1, 65%, 24%, 116.7,
Robert Carter, Jr., Maryland, 11.4, Georgia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">10.9, 80%, 18%, 114.1,
Rasheed Sulaimon, Maryland, 7.5, Duke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9.7, 51%, 25%, 110.6,
Eron Harris, Michigan St., 17.2, West Virginia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.9, 43%, 20%, 123.7,
Max Bielfeldt, Indiana, 5.1, Michigan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.9, 52%, 18%, 107.4,
Omari Grier, Rutgers, 7.9, Bradley<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6.5, 42%, 19%, 113.0,
Trevor Thompson, Ohio St., 5.0, Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.3, 45%, 18%, 114.9,
Johnny Hill, Purdue, 9.6, UT Arlington<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, 33%, 20%, 96.3,
Joey van Zegeren, Northwestern, 9.8, Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 56%, 14%, 88.9,
Khalid Lewis, Illinois, 5.8, La Salle<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, 29%, 10%, 100.4,
Alex Austin, Illinois, 7.0, Eastern Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Andrew
White was expected to be a major scorer for Nebraska, but he has done more than
that. He has become the efficient superstar Nebraska needed to have a top
flight offense again. (According to Kenpom.com, this is the best Nebraska
offense since 2004.) Unfortunately for Cornhusker fans the defense has fallen
off. The best news I can give is that Nebraska's two point defense has been
better than its three point defense and free throw defense. And two point
defense tends to have more predictive power going forward. (FYI: the same 2Pt/3Pt/FT
defense split holds true for Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Penn St.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I saw
people in the preseason saying that Rasheed Sulaimon could average 15 to 20
PPG. And of course he could if he was the only good player on his team. The
problem is that on a good team, shots are at a premium. That is why my model
tries to account for the number of possessions available to each player.
Sulaimon has not been a statistical disappointment; he is just one part of an
offense with a lot of good players.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I am
not listing Mike Thorne from Illinois due to his injury, but the play of
Illinois' two guard transfers makes me think the team really does miss Tracy
Abrams. Khalid Lewis and Alex Austin are just not as versatile. The losses at
forward and point-guard have clearly caused Illinois to drop from a bubble team
to a team that is just hanging on.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Finally Playing<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This group of players were technically on the roster last
year, but they didn't play meaningful minutes.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">10.2, 71%, 22%, 99.2,
Payton Banks, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">8.6, 57%, 22%, 102.1,
Vitto Brown, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.5, 79%, 13%, 115.8,
Zak Showalter, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.0, 50%, 14%, 102.9,
Bakary Konate, Minnesota<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.8, 44%, 16%, 104.6,
Julian Moore, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 51%, 13%, 103.2,
Devin Foster, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.7, 34%, 17%, 106.1,
Javon Bess, Michigan St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 19%, 24%, 105.2,
D.J. Wilson, Michigan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.3, 26%, 14%, 112.4,
Brady Ellingson, Iowa<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.0, 27%, 17%, 107.1,
Gavin Skelly, Northwestern<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.0, 36%, 13%, 101.3,
Jordan Hill, Wisconsin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, 18%, 20%, 111.1,
Alvin Ellis III, Michigan St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.4, 20%, 18%, 102.2,
Nick Fuller, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, 27%, 16%, 94.7,
Jake Hammond, Nebraska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 23%, 19%, 69.9,
Isaiah Washington, Penn St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Banks and Brown are the
leading scorers in this group, but I'm not convinced either is playing well.
Banks misses way too many threes and Brown is neither the outside shooter nor
defensive rebounder that Wisconsin could really use.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Returning Players<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Once again, when
interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and
opponent defense. Indiana's schedule has been easier defensively this year than
it was on the whole season last year. Meanwhile, Rutgers games have had over 6
more possessions than their games had on the full year last year. Obviously
that is going to inflate scoring totals.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">ChOppDef, Team,
ChRawPace<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.4, Indiana, 3.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, Rutgers, 6.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.5, Michigan, 5.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.5, Minnesota, 0.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.4, Northwestern, 4.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.2, Wisconsin, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, Michigan St., 4.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, Nebraska, 4.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, Purdue, 4.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.4, Iowa, 5.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, Illinois, 4.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.9, Penn St., 0.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.7, Ohio St., 2.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.6, Maryland, 2.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Here are the biggest changes in PPG:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">8.4, 15%, 4%, 19.8,
Peter Jok, Iowa, Jr, 15.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.9, 52%, 1%, -6.4, +Keita
Bates-Diop, Ohio St., So, 11.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.5, 17%, 8%, 10.7, +Brandon
Taylor, Penn St., Sr, 16.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6.0, 23%, 3%, 19.3, Tai
Webster, Nebraska, Jr, 10.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6.0, -1%, 5%, 6.6,
Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa, Sr, 18.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.7, 17%, 5%, 7.0, Mike
Williams, Rutgers, So, 12.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.7, 3%, 4%, 12.2, Bryn
Forbes, Michigan St., Sr, 14.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.6, 11%, 3%, -0.1,
Kendrick Nunn, Illinois, Jr, 16.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5.2, 22%, 3%, 31.2,
Dominique Uhl, Iowa, So, 7.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.7, 8%, 7%, -13.6,
Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin, Jr, 17.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.7, 14%, 3%, -11.4, +Bronson
Koenig, Wisconsin, Jr, 13.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.5, 11%, 3%, -3.1,
Malcolm Hill, Illinois, Jr, 18.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.4, 15%, 4%, -1.1, +Shep
Garner, Penn St., So, 13.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.4, 22%, 1%, 1.3,
Maverick Morgan, Illinois, Jr, 7.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, 22%, 2%, 6.9,
Anthony Clemmons, Iowa, Sr, 8.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, -2%, 4%, 9.6,
Denzel Valentine, Michigan St., Sr, 18.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Players marked with a +
are players we projected as breakout scorers at SI.com. With DJ Newbill
graduating, Brandon Taylor seemed like a good bet to increase his workload and
he has. Taylor has increased his usage rate more than any other player in the
Big Ten. Nigel Hayes has the next biggest increase in usage, but unlike Taylor,
Hayes has seen his efficiency plummet now that he has a larger role in the
offense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">There are not a ton of
players in the Big Ten who have seen big improvements in efficiency (at least
relative to the other top 5 conferences). But most of the big improvements are
on Iowa. Dominique Uhl has had the biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten,
Adam Woodbury (next table) has had the third biggest jump in efficiency in the
Big Ten, Peter Jok has had the fifth biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten
along with a big jump in usage, and Jarrod Uthoff has seen his efficiency
improve slightly despite the third biggest jump in usage in the Big Ten. Even
Anthony Clemmons is passing better and finishing better around the rim.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Don't let anyone tell
you we should have seen this coming with the Hawkeyes because they have a
veteran team. Iowa had a veteran team last year and they didn't become elite.
The difference this year is that Iowa's players have put in the work and
improved across the board.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I am a little nervous
about Iowa's defense going forward. Their three point and free throw defense
looks a little unsustainable given that they are not a dominant team at
defending two point shots. But that is just my way of saying I am not sure Iowa
is the #1 team in the country (the current Kenpom.com rank). Because of massive
offensive improvements by multiple players, Iowa is miles better than their
preseason bubble status.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.7, 26%, 0%, 4.5, D.J.
Foreman, Rutgers, So, 7.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.6, 16%, 4%, -4.8, +Nate
Mason, Minnesota, So, 13.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 20%, 3%, -1.1, Mark
Donnal, Michigan, So, 7.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 28%, 4%, -19.8,
Marc Loving, Ohio St., Jr, 13.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.4, 5%, 2%, 8.9, Bryant
McIntosh, Northwestern, So, 14.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3.4, 26%, 0%, 40.9, P.J.
Thompson, Purdue, So, 5.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 5%, 4%, 2.8, Matt
Costello, Michigan St., Sr, 9.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, -1%, 0%, 9.9, A.J.
Hammons, Purdue, Sr, 14.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, 1%, -1%, 19.9,
Isaac Haas, Purdue, So, 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.5, 26%, -1%, -8.8,
Charles Buggs, Minnesota, Jr, 6.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.4, 14%, 1%, -2.2, +Kam
Williams, Ohio St., So, 7.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.4, 16%, 1%, -6.3, +Jae'sean
Tate, Ohio St., So, 11.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.2, 10%, 0%, 0.6, Tre
Demps, Northwestern, Sr, 14.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.0, 11%, 0%, 12.3,
Scottie Lindsey, Northwestern, So, 6.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.0, 17%, -2%, 19.0,
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan, So, 6.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 8%, -3%, 21.2, Adam
Woodbury, Iowa, Sr, 8.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 13%, 2%, 16.7, Tum
Tum Nairn, Jr., Michigan St., So, 4.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Other than Iowa, the
other big jumps in efficiency are concentrated on the Purdue Boilermakers. PJ
Thompson has seen the biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten. Thompson still
isn't consistent and he and Johnny Hill have split starts this year, but
Thompson's huge drop in turnover rate and improved shooting have been a great
asset for the team. And Isaac Haas has improved his free throw percentage from
55% to 69% allowing him to become an efficient player.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Meanwhile Ohio St.'s
Marc Loving has had the biggest drop in efficiency in the Big Ten. Loving has had
to take on a larger role in his team's offense and he has struggled.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.7, 2%, 1%, 10.6, Joey
King, Minnesota, Sr, 11.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, 0%, 3%, -0.1, Vince
Edwards, Purdue, So, 10.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.2, -4%, 2%, 10.4,
Aubrey Dawkins, Michigan, So, 8.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.0, 10%, -1%, 9.5, Mike
Gesell, Iowa, Sr, 8.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.9, 3%, 0%, 10.2,
Derrick Walton, Jr., Michigan, Jr, 11.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.9, -2%, 2%, 0.6, Yogi
Ferrell, Indiana, Sr, 17.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.5, -7%, 1%, 12.1,
Benny Parker, Nebraska, Sr, 4.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.5, 0%, 2%, -8.9,
Donovon Jack, Penn St., Sr, 4.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.4, 8%, 2%, -8.4,
Nathan Taphorn, Northwestern, Jr, 4.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.4, 1%, 0%, 8.3, Jordan
Dickerson, Penn St., Sr, 3.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.3, -2%, 0%, 16.5,
Dakota Mathias, Purdue, So, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.3, 10%, -1%, 1.1,
Bishop Daniels, Rutgers, Sr, 8.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.2, -12%, 1%, 7.5,
Shavon Shields, Nebraska, Sr, 15.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.0, 4%, 0%, -0.2,
Sanjay Lumpkin, Northwestern, Jr, 4.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">0.0, -1%, 1%, -9.7, Nick
Zeisloft, Indiana, Sr, 6.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">These tables do not
include Michigan's Caris LeVert, Indiana's James Blackmon, Illinois' Leron Black, and Michigan's Spike Albrecht. Injuries have kept all of these players
out of a significant number of games. LeVert and Blackmon were projected to be
stars and Black was one of our projected breakout players at SI.com, meaning
all three injuries were critical. The injury to Albrecht has been tempered by
Derrick Walton's big improvement in efficiency this year. Walton was really hampered
by injuries last year but he is back to being an efficient and effective PG this season.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I really thought heading
into the season that Penn St.'s front-court would be an asset, but it hasn't
been. First super-frosh Mike Watkins was declared ineligible. Meawnhile Donovan
Jack stopped making his free throws and started turning the ball over more
leading to the 9 point drop in efficiency you see here. But my biggest
disappointment is Penn St. senior Jordan Dickerson. A lot of big men are late
bloomers and the 7 footer seemed like he was making strides last year. It seemed
quite possible he would anchor the defense and provide some surprising offense
in his final season. The best I can say is that he has remained a solid
rim-protector and shot-blocker. But he has been too foul prone and he hasn't
been able to stay on the floor and take that next step. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"></span></o:p></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.1, 6%, 1%, -12.3,
Collin Hartman, Indiana, Jr, 4.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, -3%, 2%, -5.4,
Michal Cekovsky, Maryland, So, 2.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, -2%, 1%, -5.9,
Troy Williams, Indiana, Jr, 12.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.6, -2%, -2%, -10.0,
Damonte Dodd, Maryland, Jr, 3.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.7, 4%, -2%, -6.9,
Jared Nickens, Maryland, So, 5.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.8, 1%, 0%, -11.6,
Carlos Morris, Minnesota, Sr, 10.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-0.9, -11%, 2%, -4.8,
Gavin Schilling, Michigan St., Jr, 4.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.0, -7%, 0%, 3.9,
Marvin Clark Jr., Michigan St., So, 3.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.1, -7%, 1%, -14.9,
Greg Lewis, Rutgers, Sr, 4.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.1, -17%, -2%, 8.2,
Alexandru Olah, Northwestern, Sr, 10.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.1, -6%, -1%, 9.0,
Robert Johnson, Indiana, So, 7.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.3, 0%, -4%, -3.0,
Jaylon Tate, Illinois, Jr, 2.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.5, -4%, 0%, 2.0, Melo
Trimble, Maryland, So, 14.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.6, -16%, 0%, 3.6,
Kendall Stephens, Purdue, Jr, 7.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-1.6, -9%, -3%, 1.0,
Rapheal Davis, Purdue, Sr, 9.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-2.0, 2%, -6%, 2.3, Jake
Layman, Maryland, Sr, 10.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-2.2, -12%, -1%, -11.3,
Ricky Doyle, Michigan, So, 4.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-3.1, -10%, -2%, 3.5,
Zak Irvin, Michigan, Jr, 11.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Maryland's Jake Layman has had to sacrifice a lot of shots
with the additions of Robert Carter and Rasheed Sulaimon. Layman has seen the
biggest drop in usage rate in the Big Ten.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-82855168614124569462016-02-06T12:27:00.000-05:002016-02-06T12:27:12.827-05:00ACC Player Development
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Part 5 of the series looks at every player in the ACC playing
roughly 20% of his team's minutes when active. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ACC Freshmen<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">17.4, 73%, 24%, 121.6, *Malik
Beasley, Florida St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">17.0, 81%, 24%, 119.1, *+Brandon
Ingram, Duke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">16.4, 72%, 28%, 102.8, *+Dwayne
Bacon, Florida St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">13.5, 76%, 26%, 97.1, *Bryant
Crawford, Wake Forest<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">13.4, 83%, 22%, 102.6, *+Malachi
Richardson, Syracuse<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">12.6, 83%, 19%, 105.7, *Maverick
Rowan, North Carolina St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">11.9, 62%, 21%, 125.9, *Luke
Kennard, Duke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">11.6, 82%, 23%, 90.2,
Jerome Robinson, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">8.9, 74%, 15%, 121.3, *Tyler
Lydon, Syracuse<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">8.5, 63%, 20%, 104.3, *+Derryck
Thornton, Duke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7.6, 50%, 19%, 119.3, *+Donovan
Mitchell, Louisville<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7.2, 35%, 23%, 117.1,
John Collins, Wake Forest<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.8, 48%, 18%, 106.4,
Kerry Blackshear, Jr., Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.9, 69%, 14%, 90.9, +A.J.
Turner, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Players marked with a *
were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked
as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A few notable players
are missing from this list. Virginia Tech's Chris Clarke was off to a nice
start before he fractured his foot, but since he played so few games, I am not
listing his stats. Two consensus Top 100 recruits are barely playing and didn't
meet my minutes cut-off, Wake Forest's Doral Moore and North Carolina's Kenny
Williams.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Let's start off by
noting that Malik Beasley is putting up numbers very similar to Duke's Brandon
Ingram. This is extremely impressive because unlike Ingram, Beasley didn't
enroll at Florida St. with the expectation that he would be the go-to-player.
The team brought in Dwayne Bacon, who was more highly rated, and the team
brought back nearly all its starters from last year. Beasley had to practice
hard to earn his large role, and he has not only delivered
in practice, he has delivered on the court.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The second thing I want
to discuss is how critical the injury was to transfer Terry Henderson for NC
State. With Henderson out, Anthony Barber and Maverick Rowan have had to log
huge minutes. Cat Barber has been phenomenal, but Maverick Rowan has been the
typical quality freshman. Rowan has a great game and then he has a bad game. In
a normal season if Rowan wasn't playing well, Mark Gottfried could put him on
the bench. But this season he doesn't really have a choice; he has to keep
Rowan on the floor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Syracuse's Franklin
Howard and Kaleb Johnson have scored 26 points and 16 points respectively on
the season. I find this pretty shocking, but even with Howard playing a little
bit more in a few games, Michael Gbinije has pretty much become the full-time
PG. I thought he might be the part-time PG, but as the full-time PG that has
opened the door for Malachi Richardson to play a ton at the wing and he has made the most
of his opportunity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Duke has been on an
incredible roll with freshmen point-guards that are highly ranked out of high
school. Tyus Jones, Austin Rivers, and Kyrie Irving were all highly ranked recruits
that received major playing time when healthy and were eventually selected in
the first round of the NBA draft after their freshman season. But this time
Derryck Thornton has to count as a mild disappointment. Thornton was the RSCI
#13 recruit, and despite the team having an open slot at point-guard, he is
only starting sporadically. He is also Duke's least efficient regular rotation
player. He isn't bad by any normal standard, but by elite prospect Duke
standards, he isn't great. And Chase Jeter has been even worse. In the
preseason at SI we projected Duke's Chase Jeter to be the 40th most
impactful freshman, despite the fact that he was the RSCI #14 recruit, but even
that seemingly pessimistic projection was way too optimistic:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.8, 53%, 18%, 98.1, *Justin
Robinson, Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.7, 42%, 15%, 124.4,
Matt Ryan, Notre Dame<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.6, 43%, 18%, 109.4, *Raymond
Spalding, Louisville<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.6, 28%, 18%, 133.7,
Anthony Lawrence Jr., Miami FL<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.5, 40%, 16%, 104.4,
Terance Mann, Florida St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.5, 36%, 14%, 116.7,
Matt Milon, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.3, 28%, 21%, 88.9,
Sammy Barnes-Thompkins, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.0, 28%, 20%, 108.1,
Damon Wilson, Pittsburgh<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.5, 48%, 13%, 88.0,
Ervins Meznieks, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.0, 22%, 24%, 86.4, *+Deng
Adel, Louisville<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.5, 30%, 10%, 142.5,
Rex Pflueger, Notre Dame<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.3, 26%, 15%, 82.1, Idy
Diallo, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.9, 19%, 19%, 91.9,
Jack Salt, Virginia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.7, 19%, 17%, 85.6, *+Chase
Jeter, Duke<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.4, 23%, 18%, 82.9, *Franklin
Howard, Syracuse<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Boston College has
played a lot of freshman, but only Matt Milon (over 50% of his threes) has been
efficient and Milon is a role player who rarely plays or shoots. Don't knock Deng
Adel for his low production; he is recovering from an injury. Notre Dame plays
its starters a lot of minutes, but Matt Ryan has somehow earned his way into
the rotation with some great shooting. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ACC Guys Who Sat Out 2
Years Due to Injury<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.0, 34%, 18%, 90.8,
Darryl Hicks, Boston College<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is brutal to be
injured for two years and then get healthy in time to play for such a depleted
team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ACC JUCOs<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.5, 25%, 18%, 102.1,
Benji Bell, Florida St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.2, 20%, 17%, 105.7,
Johnny Hamilton, Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Benji Bell picked the wrong year to join Florida St. The
guard and wing positions are just too loaded for him to earn playing time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ACC D1 Transfers<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">17.0, 81%, 21%, 128.4,
Damion Lee, Louisville, 21.4, Drexel<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">16.8, 82%, 33%, 92.0,
Eli Carter, Boston College, 8.8, Florida<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">15.8, 76%, 25%, 117.1,
Zach LeDay, Virginia Tech, 3.5, South Florida<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">14.6, 70%, 29%, 96.0,
Seth Allen, Virginia Tech, 13.4, Maryland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">14.5, 72%, 21%, 120.8,
Adam Smith, Georgia Tech, 13.4, Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">12.1, 70%, 21%, 116.5,
Trey Lewis, Louisville, 16.3, Cleveland St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">11.5, 56%, 25%, 108.1,
Nick Jacobs, Georgia Tech, 8.4, Alabama<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">9.8, 76%, 19%, 107.9,
Avry Holmes, Clemson, 12.5, San Francisco<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.6, 55%, 13%, 124.2,
Sterling Smith, Pittsburgh, 14.1, Coppin St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.9, 57%, 15%, 102.7,
Kamari Murphy, Miami FL, 6.1, Oklahoma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.7, 54%, 15%, 114.7,
Darius Thompson, Virginia, 2.5, Tennessee<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.9, 36%, 17%, 105.3,
James White, Georgia Tech, 11.9, Arkansas Little Rock<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.5, 34%, 13%, 111.8,
Rafael Maia, Pittsburgh, 9.9, Brown<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.9, 24%, 13%, 100.9,
Alonzo Nelson-Ododa, Pittsburgh, 6.6, Richmond<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Damion
Lee was pushed pretty hard by Deng Adel in the preseason and when Adel went
down, Lee was more than ready to be one of the nation's best wing-players. Eli
Carter has had to score by default for Boston College, as expected. Thus the
transfer that has probably surprised the most is Virginia Tech's Zach LeDay. My
model thought he might get the most playing time in Virginia Tech's
front-court, but he wasn't a very physical player at South Florida, and it
wasn't clear he could be this good. Instead he's raised his rebounding rates
substantially, he's increased his block rate, and he is shooting better across
the board to boot.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Pittsburgh frontcourt transfers have been a bit of a bust. After the team
struggled to defend the paint last year they were supposed to fill the gap, but
instead the team has looked in-house at players like Sheldon Jeter and Ryan
Luther.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Finally Playing<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The following players were not rotation players last year
and have finally cracked the lineup:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.3, 60%, 16%, 108.9,
Cody Martin, North Carolina St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.4, 49%, 19%, 89.5,
Gabe DeVoe, Clemson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.2, 42%, 18%, 108.4,
Jaylen Johnson, Louisville<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.0, 41%, 18%, 106.3,
DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.8, 24%, 21%, 122.6,
Cameron Johnson, Pittsburgh<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.8, 37%, 12%, 130.2,
Ben Lammers, Georgia Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.7, 27%, 17%, 111.6,
Ryan Luther, Pittsburgh<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.5, 33%, 18%, 96.9,
Anas Mahmoud, Louisville<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.1, 37%, 13%, 95.5,
Rondale Watson, Wake Forest<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.2, 29%, 13%, 108.7,
Matt Farrell, Notre Dame<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.8, 38%, 9%, 80.1,
Trent VanHorn, Wake Forest<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Players who have barely played don’t typically become high
scorers. Jumping back to the Pac-12 column, that is why what George King is
doing at Colorado is so impressive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Syracuse's DaJuan Coleman isn’t a major scorer, but his
defense seems pretty critical to me at this point. There are a lot of times
when he is on the bench that Syracuse looks over-matched in the paint.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Returning Players<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Once again, when
interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and
opponent defense. Louisville's schedule has been significantly easier
defensively this year than it was on the whole season last year. Meanwhile, Florida
St.’s games have had almost 8 more possessions per game than their games had on
the full year last year. Obviously that is going to inflate scoring totals.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChOppDef, Team,
ChRawPace<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.1, Louisville, 2.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.3, Boston College, 4.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.3, North Carolina, 3.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.7, North Carolina St.,
3.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.7, Pittsburgh, 6.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.9, Virginia Tech, 7.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.8, Duke, 3.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.4, Miami FL, 5.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.3, Notre Dame, 2.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.2, Clemson, 1.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.0, Syracuse, -1.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.7, Georgia Tech, 4.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.2, Wake Forest, 3.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.6, Virginia, 3.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.3, Florida St., 7.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Here are the biggest changes in PPG:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">16.1, 66%, 3%, 11.6, +Grayson
Allen, Duke, So, 20.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">11.3, 19%, 6%, 10.6,
Anthony Barber, North Carolina St., Jr, 23.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">8.1, 50%, 3%, 4.3, Joel
Berry, North Carolina, So, 12.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7.9, 26%, 6%, 20.4,
Ja'Quan Newton, Miami FL, So, 11.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7.2, 14%, 10%, 16.7,
Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville, So, 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.6, 40%, 0%, -1.2, +Bonzie
Colson, Jr., Notre Dame, So, 12.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.4, 20%, 5%, 5.9,
Abdul-Malik Abu, North Carolina St., So, 12.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.2, 38%, 1%, 0.7, Caleb
Martin, North Carolina St., So, 11.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.1, 30%, 2%, 8.0, Matt
Jones, Duke, Jr, 12.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6.0, 49%, 3%, -8.8,
Marshall Plumlee, Duke, Sr, 8.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.9, 45%, -2%, 7.7, +V.J.
Beachem, Notre Dame, Jr, 11.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.5, 31%, 2%, 25.5,
Quentin Snider, Louisville, So, 9.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5.3, 22%, 3%, 10.3, +Amile
Jefferson, Duke, Sr, 11.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.8, 2%, 4%, 17.0,
London Perrantes, Virginia, Jr, 11.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.5, 3%, 8%, 19.8,
Mangok Mathiang, Louisville, Jr, 7.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/22/top-breakout-players-grayson-allen-duke-vj-beachem-notre-dame"><span style="color: blue;">Players
marked with a + are players we projected as breakout players at SI.com</span></a>. We
were 4 for 4 in the ACC as Allen, Colson, Beachem, and Jefferson have all
scored at a much higher level than last year when healthy.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As discussed earlier,
Terry Henderson’s injury opened the door for Anthony Barber to be even more
aggressive for North Carolina St. Joel Berry also benefited from Marcus Paige
missing the start of the season. He’s become a confident polished player as a
sophomore.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Louisville’s Chinanu
Onuaku is the ACC player to show the biggest increase in aggressiveness. Onuaku
used just 13% of his team’s possessions last year. This year he uses 23%. And
he’s lowered his turnovers and improved slightly at his free throw shooting at
the same time which is a great accomplishment. Mangok Mathiang was making
similar progress though an injury interrupted that. Meanwhile Quentin Snider
has become a much more efficient player this year. Rick Pitino is mostly
winning because he is a dominant defensive coach, but he knows a thing or two
about developing players too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ja’Quan Newton has
an argument for the most improved player in the ACC as he is tied for third
with a huge 6% jump in aggressiveness, and his efficiency has jumped by 20
points. Newton’s turnover rate, free throw shooting, and two point percentage
are all much better than last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.5, 10%, 4%, 6.1,
Michael Gbinije, Syracuse, Sr, 17.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.2, 7%, 0%, 13.6, Devin
Thomas, Wake Forest, Sr, 16.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4.1, 6%, 1%, 11.7, Jaron
Blossomgame, Clemson, Jr, 17.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.9, 12%, 4%, 16.0,
Sheldon Jeter, Pittsburgh, Jr, 8.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.8, 5%, 0%, 14.4, Brice
Johnson, North Carolina, Sr, 16.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.8, 2%, 2%, 8.7,
Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia, Sr, 17.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.7, -8%, 6%, 2.9, Mike
Young, Pittsburgh, Jr, 17.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.6, 1%, 6%, -0.4,
Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame, Jr, 16.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.1, 9%, -1%, 22.2,
Isaiah Hicks, North Carolina, Jr, 9.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.0, 32%, -4%, 17.7, Jordan
Roper, Clemson, Sr, 9.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.0, 9%, 0%, 1.3,
Anthony Gill, Virginia, Sr, 14.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3.0, 10%, 6%, 8.1, Sidy
Djitte, Clemson, Jr, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.6, 23%, 1%, 17.5,
Devon Hall, Virginia, So, 4.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.6, 8%, 3%, -0.5, Steve
Vasturia, Notre Dame, Jr, 12.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.5, 28%, -2%, 27.5, Isaiah
Wilkins, Virginia, So, 4.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.5, 30%, 2%, 0.2, Theo
Pinson, North Carolina, So, 5.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Virginia's Isaiah Wilkins turnover
rate has plummeted this year leading to the biggest jump in efficiency in the
ACC, but he is such a low-usage role player that it matters less than you might
think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.1, 13%, 3%, -9.4,
Davon Reed, Miami FL, Jr, 10.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.0, 2%, 1%, 7.4, Marcus
Georges-Hunt, Georgia Tech, Sr, 15.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.8, -8%, 3%, 2.4, Jamel
Artis, Pittsburgh, Jr, 15.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.7, -2%, -1%, 11.1,
Sheldon McClellan, Miami FL, Sr, 16.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.6, 13%, 2%, 4.2, Tyler
Roberson, Syracuse, Jr, 9.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.5, 7%, -1%, 9.8, Donte
Grantham, Clemson, So, 10.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.4, 10%, -4%, -2.8,
Jalen Hudson, Virginia Tech, So, 8.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.3, 3%, 6%, -18.9,
Dennis Clifford, Boston College, Sr, 8.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.2, 2%, 1%, -0.3,
Justin Jackson, North Carolina, So, 12.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.2, 5%, 1%, -1.0, Nate
Britt, North Carolina, Jr, 6.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.1, 9%, -3%, 8.3,
Charles Mitchell, Georgia Tech, Sr, 10.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.1, 14%, 1%, -8.7, Zach
Auguste, Notre Dame, Sr, 13.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1.0, -10%, 0%, 12.6,
James Robinson, Pittsburgh, Sr, 9.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.9, 3%, -2%, 20.2, Ivan
Cruz Uceda, Miami FL, Sr, 6.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.9, -7%, 3%, 5.5,
Landry Christ Nnoko, Clemson, Sr, 8.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dennis Clifford has had
to take a larger role in the Boston College offense this year and he has seen
the biggest drop in efficiency in the ACC. And certainly, the increase in shot
volume explains his increase in turnover rate and lower shooting percentage.
But what explains his drop in free throw percentage?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.8, 4%, 0%, 0.1, Kostas
Mitoglou, Wake Forest, So, 10.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.8, 11%, -8%, 27.5,
Justin Bibbs, Virginia Tech, So, 12.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.7, 4%, 1%, -6.2, Boris
Bojanovsky, Florida St., Sr, 5.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.6, 7%, 3%, -4.9,
Garland Owens, Boston College, Jr, 4.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.4, 1%, 2%, 1.1, Joel
James, North Carolina, Sr, 2.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.3, -8%, 1%, 13.0, Greg
McClinton, Wake Forest, So, 3.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.3, 9%, -2%, 6.7,
Lennard Freeman, North Carolina St., Jr, 3.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.2, -3%, -1%, 5.1, Mike
Tobey, Virginia, Sr, 7.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.2, -1%, 1%, 2.8,
Trevor Cooney, Syracuse, Sr, 13.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.1, 8%, 0%, 0.3,
Mitchell Wilbekin, Wake Forest, So, 7.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.1, -1%, 0%, 5.5,
Marial Shayok, Virginia, So, 3.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.1, -3%, 0%, 6.9, James
Palmer, Miami FL, So, 3.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.1, 0%, -4%, 4.6, Shane
Henry, Virginia Tech, Sr, 2.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0.0, -1%, -1%, 4.1,
Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina, Jr, 11.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Justin Bibbs is tied
with the biggest jump in efficiency in the ACC, but that is largely because he
has become a more passive player. He is taking less bad two point jumpers this
season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.1, 9%, -1%, -9.3,
BeeJay Anya, North Carolina St., Jr, 4.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.3, 12%, -5%, 10.7,
Angel Rodriguez, Miami FL, Sr, 11.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.3, 0%, -4%, 9.5,
Tadric Jackson, Georgia Tech, So, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.6, 1%, -3%, 3.1,
Tonye Jekiri, Miami FL, Sr, 8.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.7, 4%, 1%, -12.6,
Cornelius Hudson, Wake Forest, So, 6.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.8, -2%, -2%, -6.0,
Josh Smith, Clemson, Sr, 1.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-0.9, -12%, 0%, 14.2,
Devon Bookert, Florida St., Sr, 9.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-1.0, 3%, -4%, 13.3,
Josh Heath, Georgia Tech, Jr, 3.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-1.0, -13%, -3%, 23.5,
Travis Jorgenson, Georgia Tech, Jr, 2.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-1.1, -7%, -1%, 8.8,
Quinton Stephens, Georgia Tech, Jr, 4.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-1.6, -7%, -1%, 0.9,
Marcus Paige, North Carolina, Sr, 12.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-1.7, -22%, 3%, -17.8,
Evan Nolte, Virginia, Sr, 1.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-2.0, -9%, -1%, -13.4,
Jarquez Smith, Florida St., Jr, 4.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-2.7, -26%, 0%, 4.4,
Chris Jones, Pittsburgh, Jr, 5.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-3.1, -26%, -4%, 14.0,
Phil Cofer, Florida St., So, 3.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-3.2, -10%, -4%, 5.9,
Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida St., So, 11.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-4.1, -20%, -7%, -15.5,
Devin Wilson, Virginia Tech, Jr, 2.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-7.3, -4%, -8%, -14.3,
Codi Miller-McIntyre, Wake Forest, Sr, 7.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-8.1, -32%, -7%, -11.2,
Montay Brandon, Florida St., Sr, 3.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Several Florida St.
players, most notably Montay Brandon, have seen their playing time and shot
volume squeezed out by Florida St.’s elite recruiting class. Wake Forest’s Codi
Miller-McIntyre hasn’t been the same player since returning from his injury. It
is sad to see the senior go out like this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-35460032287398412632016-02-05T12:39:00.000-05:002016-02-05T12:39:18.958-05:00Big East Player Development<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Part 4 of the series looks at every player in the Big East
playing over 20% of his team's minutes when active. </span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Big East Freshmen</span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">16.0, 80%, 27%, 100.6, *+Henry
Ellenson, Marquette</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">12.3, 81%, 21%, 94.7,
Federico Mussini, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.6, 69%, 21%, 95.3, *Haanif
Cheatham, Marquette</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.3, 62%, 23%, 108.6, *+Jalen
Brunson, Villanova</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.5, 66%, 20%, 91.8,
Elijah Cain, DePaul</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.4, 66%, 18%, 101.9, +Yankuba
Sima, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.3, 51%, 16%, 124.9, *Mikal
Bridges, Villanova</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.9, 50%, 18%, 109.0,
Khyri Thomas, Creighton</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.6, 39%, 23%, 103.3, *+Jessie
Govan, Georgetown</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.5, 50%, 19%, 105.1, *Marcus
Derrickson, Georgetown</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.5, 50%, 25%, 75.7,
Malik Ellison, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.3, 56%, 19%, 83.8, *Kassoum
Yakwe, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.8, 53%, 12%, 118.6,
Ryan Fazekas, Providence</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.1, 56%, 19%, 91.5,
Traci Carter, Marquette</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.0, 27%, 15%, 94.6,
Amarveer Singh, Seton Hall</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, 29%, 14%, 106.4,
Kaleb Johnson, Georgetown</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 24%, 17%, 98.6,
Kaiser Gates, Xavier</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 24%, 20%, 99.8, *Ronnie
Harrell, Creighton</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.7, 29%, 14%, 104.2,
Drew Edwards, Providence</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.0, 39%, 13%, 76.8,
Erten Gazi, DePaul</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Players marked with a *
were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked
as instant impact freshmen at SI.com<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">.</span> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Marquette is a bit of an
enigma. The team has quite a bit of "recruiting" talent. The team ha<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">s</span>
six players in the rotation who were former Top 100 recruits. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">Mor<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">eover</span></span> last year's
struggles on defense appeared to be due to the team's limited size. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">I</span>n the preseason my model pegged Marquette as a
defense-led team, who would be elevated by the play of the team's super-elite
freshman Henry Ellenson. It saw them as likely one of the last teams in the NCAA
tournament. As it turns out, Marquette has mostly followed the script. The
defense is much better than the offense. And Ellenson really has elevated the
level of the team's play.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">But turnovers have
absolutely crippled Marquette. Both freshman Traci Carter and Hannif
Cheatem are playing a lot of minutes and turning the ball over at an
exceptionally high rate. That's killing the offense and the defense and causing
the team to underperform in both areas. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Turnovers aren't the
only reason the team has lost. They've had games where they shot poorly. The
team has been unlucky to have opponents make 76% of their FTs, partly because
they've frequently trailed in close games. Marquette has sometimes lacked size when
the team gets into foul trouble, since despite a Top 100 recruiting rank,
freshman big man Matt Heldt is clearly not ready for Big East basketball.
(Heldt and Xavier's Makinde London are the only two Top 100 freshman not to
play over 20% of the minutes for their team.)</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">But turnovers are
probably the biggest reason a tournament run is looking like a long-shot for
Marquette. The only good news I can offer is that players that make lots of
mistakes tend to be the most likely to benefit from the sophomore leap as they
clean up their game.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Besides Ellenson, the
next most hyped Big East recruit was probably Villanova's Jalen Brunson<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">Brunson</span></span> has played well<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";"> and</span> teammate Mikal Bridges has made a remarkable 74% of
his twos. With Villanova continuing to recruit well and putting their players
in position to be efficient, their dominance in the Big East is not close to
coming to an end.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Big East Guys Who Sat
Out 2 Years</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">12.3, 81%, 20%, 103.4,
Rodney Bullock, Providence</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">When Ben Bentil leaves
the floor, Providence is just not the same team. He brings so much on offense
and defense, and we saw that against DePaul. But of course, Kris Dunn is
probably the conference player of the year. So is it fair to say that Rodney
Bullock is also essential? Providence often needs Bullock's scoring to get the
victory. When Bullock has played poorly (the team's three home losses), they
often don't have enough complimentary scoring to get it done. These three
players have absolutely carried an otherwise lackluster roster into a Top 25
poll ranking.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Big East JUCOs</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">None</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">All the transfers in the Big East to crack their team's rotation had previous D1 experience. The Big East's only notable JUCO recruit, Darien
Williams of St. John's, was hurt early in the season.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Big East D1 Transfers</span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam</span><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">14.2, 76%, 28%, 109.3,
Mo Watson, Creighton, 13.3, Boston University</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">12.4, 72%, 22%, 97.0,
Durand Johnson, St. John's, 8.8, Pittsburgh</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">9.6, 51%, 22%, 104.2,
Cole Huff, Creighton, 12.4, Nevada</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.9, 67%, 17%, 101.5,
Ron Mvouika, St. John's, 6.8, Missouri St.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.5, 61%, 22%, 93.6,
Derrick Gordon, Seton Hall, 9.8, Massachusetts</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.0, 59%, 17%, 119.0,
Tyler Lewis, Butler, 4.4, North Carolina St.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, 38%, 15%, 96.4,
Jordan Gathers, Butler, 8.2, St. Bonaventure</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 23%, 13%, 99.5,
Wally Ellenson, Marquette, 2.3, Minnesota</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">A lot of people seemed shocked that Creighton is playing
well this year but the numbers really liked transfers Mo Watson and Cole Huff
and they have delivered. All of these players have performed about as expected.</span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Finally Playing</span></u><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This group of players were technically on the roster last
year, but they didn't play meaningful minutes.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.4, 63%, 24%, 103.2,
Edmond Sumner, Xavier</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.9, 54%, 23%, 103.9,
Bradley Hayes, Georgetown</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.7, 59%, 22%, 88.8,
Felix Balamou, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.5, 65%, 19%, 87.6,
Christian Jones, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.7, 50%, 16%, 111.5,
Reggie Cameron, Georgetown</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.0, 41%, 19%, 87.7,
Amar Alibegovic, St. John's</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.8, 67%, 12%, 104.2,
Ismael Sanogo, Seton Hall</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.5, 37%, 14%, 118.6,
Michael Nzei, Seton Hall</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.7, 20%, 22%, 109.7,
Sean O'Mara, Xavier</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.6, 25%, 22%, 95.1,
R.J. Curington, DePaul</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.4, 28%, 16%, 92.0,
Larry Austin, Xavier</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, 43%, 10%, 106.2,
Darryl Reynolds, Villanova</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, 24%, 14%, 83.7,
Peter Ryckbosch, DePaul</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Edmond Sumner's emergence is a huge reason Xavier was able to climb in the polls this season.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Georgetown has traditionally played a very tight rotation,
and players that don't crack that rotation often transfer. But Bradley Hayes
and Reggie Cameron are two of the rare players to stick it out, sitting on the
bench for extended seasons, and then finally earn playing time. While both are
to be complimented for what they've been able to do offensively, Georgetown's
defense has been suspect, and both have played a role in that.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Returning Players</span></u></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Once again, when
interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and
opponent defense. Providence's schedule has been slightly easier defensively
this year than it was on the whole season last year. Meanwhile, Creighton's
games have had 9 more possessions than their games had on the full year last
year. Obviously that is going to inflate scoring totals.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChOppDef, Team, ChRawPace</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.3, Providence, 4.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.2, Marquette, 8.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, Creighton, 9.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, Georgetown, 4.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, Xavier, 5.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, Villanova, 1.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.1, DePaul, 1.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.0, St. John's, 4.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.7, Butler, 5.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.6, Seton Hall, 4.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Here are the biggest changes in PPG:</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">13.3, 29%, 9%, 10.9, +Ben
Bentil, Providence, So, 19.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.5, 29%, -1%, 18.6,
Kelan Martin, Butler, So, 15.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.4, 13%, 5%, 27.9,
James Farr, Xavier, Sr, 10.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.2, 22%, 1%, 10.7, Desi
Rodriguez, Seton Hall, So, 11.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.0, 36%, 1%, 26.2,
Tyler Wideman, Butler, So, 8.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.5, 22%, 0%, 15.1,
Geoff Groselle, Creighton, Sr, 10.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.4, 11%, 2%, 6.8,
Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall, So, 14.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.4, 14%, 4%, -7.0, Josh
Hart, Villanova, Jr, 15.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.7, 21%, 4%, -3.9, Kris
Jenkins, Villanova, Jr, 11.0</span></div>
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Players marked with a +
are players we projected as breakout players at SI.com. We were high on Bentil
coming into this off-season, but I don't think anyone could have expected him
to become as invaluable a player as <span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">he </span>has become. He not only is the heart
of the defense and an elite offensive rebounder, he has also developed enough
of a jump shot to really scare defenses and spread the floor. Through four
conferences (Big 12, SEC, Pac12, Big East), Bentil has the biggest jump in PPG
since last season. He is also the only Big East player with a significant jump
in aggressiveness as Bentil went from using 18% of the possession's when on the
floor last year to 27% this year.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">James Farr is second
with a 5% increase in possession's used, but due to Farr's phenomenal increase
in efficiency, his jump in PPG is also extremely impressive. Farr used to
struggle with free throws, but he has improved in that area this year and I
have to wonder if that hasn't also contributed to his ability to finish around
the rim. He is no longer afraid of contact. Farr's turnover rate is also down
noticeably. We pegged Jalen Reynolds as a breakout post-player for Xavier based
on his stellar per minute numbers last year, but Farr's improvement has stolen
much of the focus on Reynolds. That might not be great for Reynold's draft
prospects, but having a super-athletic player like Reynolds off the ball isn't
a bad thing for the team as a whole.</span><br />
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.5, 43%, 2%, 12.2,
Junior Lomomba, Providence, Jr, 6.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 6%, 1%, 6.1, Trevon
Bluiett, Xavier, So, 15.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.2, 7%, 1%, 7.8, Isaiah
Whitehead, Seton Hall, So, 16.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.8, 13%, -1%, 33.2,
Zach Hanson, Creighton, Jr, 7.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 27%, -1%, 14.7,
Sandy Cohen, Marquette, So, 7.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 22%, -3%, 22.5,
J.P. Macura, Xavier, So, 8.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, 28%, 0%, -4.1, +Isaac
Copeland, Georgetown, So, 9.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, -4%, 4%, 11.4, L.J.
Peak, Georgetown, So, 10.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, 1%, 0%, 12.0, Myke
Henry, DePaul, Sr, 14.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, 17%, 4%, -8.2,
Jalen Lindsey, Providence, So, 6.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, 3%, 2%, -0.1, Ryan
Arcidiacono, Villanova, Sr, 12.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.1, 12%, 0%, -0.5,
Isaiah Zierden, Creighton, Jr, 11.6</span></div>
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Creighton's Zach Hanson actually has
the biggest jump in ORtg in the Big East (just ahead of Farr). His two point
percentage has improved from 55% last season to 69% this season. Tyler Wideman
had the third biggest jump in ORtg, but like Georgetown's Bradley Hayes, that
comes with a caveat to me. While Wideman has been a good offensive player, he
isn't nearly the defensive player that Kameron Woods was due to his lower
rebounding totals. Teams are getting a lot more second chances against Butler
this year.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">The biggest reason for
Georgetown's slightly disappointing season is probably the defense, but another
factor is that Isaac Copeland has not emerged. John Thompson III has done a
great job developing players like Otto Porter and Hollis Thompson into sophomore st<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">ars</span>. But Copeland<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";"> has not matched that t<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">rajectory and his</span></span> three point shot
has been broken this year.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, -5%, -1%, 17.8,
Roosevelt Jones, Butler, Sr, 14.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 17%, -2%, 8.5,
Aaron Simpson, DePaul, Sr, 6.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 9%, 2%, 1.8, Kyron
Cartwright, Providence, So, 5.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, 0%, 0%, 2.5, Kris
Dunn, Providence, Jr, 17.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, -4%, 4%, -4.2,
Billy Garrett, DePaul, Jr, 13.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.4, -2%, 1%, 9.3, Luke
Fischer, Marquette, Jr, 12.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, 0%, -4%, 17.7, JaJuan
Johnson, Marquette, Jr, 8.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, 9%, 0%, -2.4,
Rashaun Stimage, DePaul, Sr, 5.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.2, 21%, 3%, -31.9, +Phil
Booth, Villanova, So, 7.0</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.0, 8%, -4%, 12.6,
Darrick Wood, DePaul, Jr, 5.5</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Villanova's Phil Booth
was also supposed to step into a slightly larger role for Villanova this year,
but his three point shot has gone in the tank and his efficiency drop is the
biggest in the Big East. Notably, players that depend on outside shooting
suffer much wilder fluctuations in ORtg than other players.</span><br />
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.8, 3%, -1%, 0.8, Angel
Delgado, Seton Hall, So, 10.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.7, 14%, 0%, -11.4, Tre
Campbell, Georgetown, So, 4.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.6, 9%, -2%, 9.0, Myles
Davis, Xavier, Jr, 11.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.5, -5%, 2%, -3.2,
Daniel Ochefu, Villanova, Sr, 9.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.3, 1%, -3%, 3.9, Duane
Wilson, Marquette, So, 12.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.3, 5%, 1%, -7.2,
D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown, Sr, 16.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.1, -6%, 1%, 3.0,
Austin Etherington, Butler, Sr, 2.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.2, -6%, 0%, 1.3,
Kellen Dunham, Butler, Sr, 16.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, 0%, 2%, -10.1, +Jalen
Reynolds, Xavier, Jr, 9.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, 0%, -2%, -4.1,
Toby Hegner, Creighton, So, 6.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.6, 11%, -5%, 15.4,
Andrew Chrabascz, Butler, Jr, 10.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.9, 5%, -3%, -1.7,
Tommy Hamilton, Jr., DePaul, Jr, 9.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.8, -4%, -2%, -6.4,
James Milliken, Creighton, Sr, 7.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-2.1, -5%, -1%, -9.5,
Remy Abell, Xavier, Sr, 6.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Of course Copeland isn't the only Georgetown
player to see his efficiency fall. The same can be said for Tre Campbell and
D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera.</span></div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-89278931857118693932016-02-02T21:00:00.000-05:002016-02-02T21:00:10.086-05:00Pac 12 Player Development
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Pac-12 has really been hit with the injury bug this
year. Injuries to Stanford's Reid Travis and Oregon's Dylan Ennis have
significantly changed the makeup of those teams. Arizona has lost two critical
freshmen in Ray Smith and Alonzo Trier, and Elliot Pitts is also out. Utah's
Kenneth Ogbe and Washington St.'s Valentine Izundu have missed time. UCLA's
Gyorgy Goloman and Oregon St.'s Daniel Gomis have only recently returned and
Oregon St.'s Jarmal Reid was out due to injury and then because he was
suspended for tripping a referee. None of these players are shown below. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But I will show the stats for Cal's Tyrone Wallace because
he played 18 games and the team is hoping to have him back before the Pac-12
tournament. I also show the numbers for Arizona's Kaleb Tarczewski and Oregon's
Jordan Bell who have returned to the lineup for their respective teams. But
before we get to the returning Pac-12 players, let's start with the debuts:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Pac 12 Freshmen<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">15.8, 67%, 33%, 99.4, *+Jaylen Brown, California<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">14.6, 80%, 25%, 96.7, *+Dejounte Murray, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">13.5, 72%, 22%, 115.1, *+Tyler Dorsey, Oregon<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">12.5, 70%, 21%, 121.0, *+Ivan Rabb, California<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">12.4, 67%, 24%, 108.1, *Tres Tinkle, Oregon St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">12.2, 61%, 22%, 112.1, *Bennie Boatwright, USC<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">12.0, 55%, 23%, 109.7, *Marquese Chriss, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">11.1, 79%, 20%, 98.1, *Aaron Holiday, UCLA<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">9.9, 49%, 25%, 100.2, *+Stevie Thompson, Oregon St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Players marked with a * were consensus Top 100 recruits.
Players marked with a + were players we picked as instant impact freshmen at
SI.com.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The recruiting rankings for the Pac-12 were pretty much
spot-on. Brown, Murray, Dorsey, and Rabb were viewed by all scouting services
to be instant impact guys and all four have delivered. Brown could improve his
game by taking a few less threes and making a higher percentage of his free
throws, but he has been a huge part of Cal's offense. I'm surprised a freshman
averaging 16 points and 6 boards per game barely gets mentioned on national
telecasts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br /></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">9.4, 58%, 19%, 101.5, David Crisp, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.6, 57%, 19%, 96.0, *+Noah Dickerson, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.9, 53%, 19%, 107.7, Drew Eubanks, Oregon St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.1, 43%, 20%, 103.5, *Chimezie Metu, USC<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.0, 43%, 24%, 101.1, Marcus Sheffield, Stanford<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6.0, 57%, 14%, 100.0, Matisse Thybulle, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.4, 30%, 19%, 88.4, *+Prince Ali, UCLA<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.1, 50%, 13%, 101.2, *+Jonah Bolden, UCLA<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br /></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jonah Bolden was a partial qualifier last year so
technically he only has 3 years of eligibility left, but this is his first year
playing college basketball, so I think it is best to compare him to the group
of freshmen. It is fascinating to me how a year away from college basketball
makes some players better, but hurts other players. After a year of
ineligibility, Jonah Bolden and Florida's Brandone Francis-Ramirez have looked rusty. Meanwhile Providence's Rodney Bullock has returned from two years
away from basketball to play great.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">At SI we thought Prince Ali and Jonah Bolden would both get
ample opportunity to earn playing time given UCLA's lack of depth. Ali and
Bolden were both ranked 36th by RSCI (in 2014 and 2015 respectively). But their
lack of production just goes to show that outside the Top 30, recruits don't
always play well right away. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you are
looking for a reason that UCLA has a losing record in conference play, most
people want to complain about Bryce Alford's inconsistency or the team's lack
of defense. But it would help a lot of UCLA was getting more out of its bench.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There are not a lot of surprises in the Pac-12 as most of
the freshmen that are producing were consensus Top 100 recruits. David Crisp is
probably the biggest surprise in the Pac-12. He was viewed as somewhere between
the 4th and 6th best recruit in Washington's recruiting class and he wasn't a
consensus Top 100 player. His ORtg may not be spectacular, but it is fair to
say the rest of the freshmen in the Pac-12 would like to be posting that level
of efficiency:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.6, 39%, 15%, 98.7, Thomas Akyazili, Colorado<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.7, 21%, 21%, 86.1, Robert Franks, Washington St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.6, 20%, 21%, 88.5, *Justin Simon, Arizona<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.4, 23%, 15%, 89.5, Dominic Green, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.2, 25%, 16%, 89.9, Kendall Small, Oregon<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.0, 24%, 16%, 85.7, Derrick Bruce, Oregon St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.6, 20%, 15%, 91.6, Alex Olesinski, UCLA<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.3, 21%, 13%, 84.1, Cameron Walker, Stanford<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Arizona's Justin Simon was a Top 100 recruit, but he's stuck
as the team’s #3 PG. I think it is too early to call him a bust given his
limited playing time at his natural position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Arizona's Chance Comanche and Oregon's Trevor Manuel were also Top 100
recruits and they have not even cracked the rotation for their respective
teams. At SI, we also pegged Josh Sharma as a possible breakout player given
how much he played on Stanford's summer overseas tour, but he has barely played
and didn't even crack the 20% minutes threshold for the above table.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Pac 12 JUCOs<o:p></o:p></span></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">12.7, 66%, 21%, 121.6, Chris Boucher, Oregon<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">10.3, 66%, 20%, 118.3, Lorenzo Bonam, Utah<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">9.5, 55%, 21%, 109.9, Obinna Oleka, Arizona St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">9.0, 62%, 21%, 110.3, Kadeem Allen, Arizona, Jr<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.8, 58%, 21%, 97.1, Charles Callison, Washington St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6.7, 52%, 13%, 119.9, Malik Dime, Washington<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6.4, 37%, 27%, 90.5, Renard Suggs, Washington St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.5, 48%, 18%, 94.7, Andre Spight, Arizona St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.6, 28%, 21%, 86.5, Derrien King, Washington St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">No one is great at projecting how JUCOs will do at the
college level. I say this to note the curious case of Arizona's Kadeem Allen.
Allen was viewed as one of the top shooting guards and a top scorer when he
played JUCO ball. But in this year's early practices he became Arizona’s most
consistent ball-handler and one of the team's best perimeter defenders. And
suddenly despite the presence of elite prospects Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Justin
Simon, Allen became Arizona’s starting PG. Allen is good, but for completely
different reasons than what the initial JUCO scouting reports said.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The reason it is so hard to scout JUCO players is because
the change in competition from JUCO basketball to D1 basketball is huge. But if
you had to pick someone to find a quality JUCO recruit, you would probably want
to choose Oregon's Dana Altman. Altman just has an eye for identifying players
that have skills that will translate to the D1 level. And Chris Boucher is one
of the only JUCOs to really become a star this year. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Of course, Lorenzo Bonam has been pretty productive too. You
might not think these performances are that special, but Bonam and Boucher are
more efficient and scoring at a higher rate than any of the JUCOs we saw in the
Big 12 and SEC in Part 1 and 2 of this series.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Pac-12 D1 Transfers<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team, Last PPG, Last Team<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">15.2, 72%, 23%, 121.3, Ryan Anderson, Arizona, 14.3, Boston
College<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">10.6, 58%, 24%, 105.4, Josh Fortune, Colorado, 8.4,
Providence<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.4, 61%, 14%, 134.5, Mark Tollefsen, Arizona, 14.0, San
Francisco<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.0, 33%, 23%, 114.2, Conor Clifford, Washington St., 2.5,
UC Irvine<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.0, 30%, 11%, 111.4, Stephen Domingo, California, 0.5,
Georgetown<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not counting Oregon's Dylan Ennis who ended up injured,
Arizona's Ryan Anderson was the Pac-12 transfer expected to have the biggest
impact. And Anderson has lived up to the hype. Overall, the D1 transfers in the
Pac-12 have all performed about as expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Finally Playing<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This group of players were technically on the roster last
year, but they didn't play meaningful minutes:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">14.7, 62%, 25%, 112.5, George King, Colorado<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">11.5, 73%, 20%, 114.0, Dorian Pickens, Stanford<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">11.4, 58%, 26%, 106.7, Kyle Kuzma, Utah<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.1, 59%, 18%, 106.1, Kodi Justice, Arizona St.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.4, 37%, 21%, 97.1, Tory Miller, Colorado<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.6, 55%, 16%, 95.0, Christian Sanders, Stanford<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.8, 38%, 12%, 115.0, Kameron Rooks, California<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.3, 27%, 17%, 74.3, Malcolm Allen, Stanford<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.3, 28%, 13%, 103.3, Grant Verhoeven, Stanford</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">George King makes me happy to be a college basketball fan.
King was a player who was lightly recruited out of high school. He played
sparingly as an emergency reserve as a freshmen. Then he red-shirted last year.
If he had scored 2 PPG this year, no one would have thought anything of it.
Instead King has become a major scorer. And thanks to his emergence, Josh Scott
is playing in meaningful games as a senior.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Returning Players<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">As noted in part 1 and 2, when interpreting changes in PPG,
you should keep in mind the changes in pace and opponent defense. Oregon and
Oregon St. have actually played a tougher slate of defenses so far this year
than they face on the whole year last year, while Colorado and UCLA's schedule
has been slightly easier. Meanwhile, Washington's games have had nearly 12 more
possessions than their games had on the full year last year. Obviously that is
going to inflate scoring totals.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ChOppDef, team, ChRawPace<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.7, Colorado, 6.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.6, UCLA, 4.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.2, Arizona, 2.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.8, Washington St., 4.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.6, USC, 5.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.6, Washington, 11.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.4, Utah, 5.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.2, Arizona St., 4.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.1, California, 1.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.8, Stanford, 1.7<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.0, Oregon, 2.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.1, Oregon St., 6.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Here are the biggest changes in PPG:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.5, 31%, 3%, 21.4, Thomas Welsh, UCLA, So, 12.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.3, 15%, 5%, 17.2, Tra Holder, Arizona St., So, 15.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">8.2, 16%, 4%, 13.3, Jakob Poeltl, Utah, So, 17.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.9, 27%, 5%, 11.1, Rosco Allen, Stanford, Sr, 15.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.4, 44%, 0%, 29.0, Willie Atwood, Arizona St., Sr, 10.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">7.1, 37%, 7%, -7.6, Michael Humphrey, Stanford, So, 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6.1, 1%, 3%, 13.3, Isaac Hamilton, UCLA, Jr, 16.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6.0, -3%, 4%, 10.6, Andrew Andrews, Washington, Sr, 21.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.9, 10%, 5%, 6.4, +Ike Iroegbu, Washington St., Jr, 14.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.9, 27%, 5%, -4.2, Marcus Allen, Stanford, Jr, 12.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.4, 24%, 4%, -7.8, Gabe York, Arizona, Sr, 14.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">5.2, 14%, 3%, 7.0, Dillon Brooks, Oregon, So, 16.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.9, 23%, 6%, -8.4, Dusan Ristic, Arizona, So, 8.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.3, 11%, 0%, 26.0, Elijah Stewart, USC, So, 10.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.0, 14%, 1%, 9.4, Que Johnson, Washington St., Jr, 10.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.9, 17%, 2%, 24.7, +Dominique Collier, Colorado, So, 8.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Arizona St. senior Willie Atwood has had the biggest jump in
efficiency in the conference. He has improved his shooting across the board.
USC's Elijah Stewart is next as he has improved his shooting and his turnover
rate. But Dominique Collier and Thomas Welsh's improvement in efficiency is
arguably more impressive given that they are both using more possessions for
their teams as well.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
</span></span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Stanford's Michael Humphrey, Stanford's Marcus Allen, Arizona's Gabe York, and Arizona's Dusan Ristic have something in common. They are all being more aggressive, but they have had to sacrifice some efficiency in the process.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.6, 9%, 2%, 13.2, Julian Jacobs, USC, Jr, 12.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.9, 20%, 1%, 0.8, Josh Scott, Colorado, Sr, 17.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.9, -5%, 5%, 2.3, Gary Payton II, Oregon St., Sr, 16.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.5, 22%, 0%, 13.9, Casey Benson, Oregon, So, 6.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.1, 29%, -2%, -7.7, +Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Arizona,
So, 5.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.0, -7%, 8%, -10.7, Jordan Bell, Oregon, So, 7.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.8, 10%, 0%, 0.7, Tony Parker, UCLA, Sr, 13.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.6, 8%, 1%, -0.6, +Tre'Shaun Fletcher, Colorado, Jr, 7.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">At SI, we viewed Iroegbu, Collier, Fletcher, and Jackson-Cartwright
as breakout scorers, but George King has been a huge suprise for Colorado
supplanting some of Collier and Fletcher's shots. And as noted earlier, Kadeem
Allen became the Arizona starting PG taking playing time away from
Jackson-Cartwright. Some of that is based on Allen, but it also appears that
Parker Jackson-Cartwright wasn't totally ready for a larger role. Jackson-Cartwright's
efficiency and usage are down this season.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The biggest increase in usage in the Pac-12 belongs to Oregon's
Jordan Bell, but again, he's sacrificed efficiency with his increased
aggressiveness.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.6, 3%, 0%, 2.6, Bryce Alford, UCLA, Jr, 17.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.3, -2%, 1%, -1.5, Josh Hawkinson, Washington St., Jr, 16.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.2, 9%, -2%, 4.8, Jordan Loveridge, Utah, Sr, 11.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.2, -3%, 1%, 13.1, Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona, Sr, 10.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.7, 13%, -1%, -8.4, Junior Longrus, Washington St., Sr, 2.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.7, -1%, -4%, 19.1, Jordan McLaughlin, USC, So, 12.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.5, 4%, 0%, -1.7, Elgin Cook, Oregon, Sr, 13.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.4, 3%, 0%, -14.6, Isaiah Wright, Utah, So, 2.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.2, 4%, -1%, -6.1, Dwayne Benjamin, Oregon, Sr, 8.7<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.1, -7%, -2%, 15.0, Nikola Jovanovic, USC, Jr, 12.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.1, 1%, 0%, -8.2, Wesley Gordon, Colorado, Jr, 6.7<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bryce Alford and Josh Hawkinson may be close to their
ceiling. They haven't shown any meaningful improvement from last year. That said, they are still plenty good.</span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.1, -1%, -3%, 13.5, Katin Reinhardt, USC, Jr, 12.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.3, -8%, 0%, 1.0, Sam Singer, California, Jr, 4.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.3, 10%, -5%, 4.1, Gerry Blakes, Arizona St., Sr, 10.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.3, -4%, -1%, 5.6, Jordan Mathews, California, Jr, 13.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.4, -13%, 0%, 15.7, Xavier Talton, Colorado, Sr, 3.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.9, -15%, 0%, 6.0, Eric Jacobsen, Arizona St., Sr, 7.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.9, -15%, -1%, 13.8, Olaf Schaftenaar, Oregon St., Sr, 6.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-0.9, -5%, -3%, -17.4, Kingsley Okoroh, California, So, 1.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.0, -8%, -2%, 12.2, Donaven Dorsey, Washington, So, 2.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.0, -26%, 4%, 6.9, Malik Marquetti, USC, So, 2.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.0, 7%, 0%, 1.2, Savon Goodman, Arizona St., Jr, 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.1, 5%, 0%, -19.2, Brandon Taylor, Utah, Sr, 9.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.3, -17%, 1%, 7.2, Chris Reyes, Utah, Jr, 3.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.5, -4%, -1%, 0.3, Brekkott Chapman, Utah, So, 4.3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.6, -5%, -4%, 9.3, Tyrone Wallace, California, Sr, 15.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.9, 15%, -4%, 2.7, Jabari Bird, California, Jr, 8.5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-1.9, -4%, -3%, -0.5, Dakarai Tucker, Utah, Sr, 5.2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-2.5, -17%, -3%, -1.0, Brett Boese, Washington St., Sr, 1.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-2.8, -25%, -1%, 5.0, Darion Clark, USC, Jr, 2.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-3.1, -21%, -6%, -17.9, Ny Redding, Washington St., So, 1.0<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-3.2, -25%, -2%, 3.6, Langston Morris-Walker, Oregon St.,
Sr, 6.1<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">-4.3, -22%, -7%, 1.8, Malcolm Duvivier, Oregon St., Jr, 6.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ty Wallace and Jabari Bird have had to sacrifice possessions
(sacrifice shots) to their talented freshmen teammates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">If you think these drops in minutes are significant,
consider that three players UCLA's Noah Allen, USC's Malik Martin and USC's Srahinja
Gavrilovic have essentially all fallen out of the rotation after being rotation
players last year. <span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">USC's resurgence is based on a number
of things. The freshmen have played well; players like Elijah Stewart have
become more efficient. But one symptom of that is inefficient players are no
longer being forced into playing time. A year ago Martin and Gavrilovic were
needed for their size. That is no longer the case.</span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-4021295484813602362016-02-02T09:26:00.001-05:002016-02-02T09:26:41.700-05:00SEC Player Development<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This is part 2 of a series. As with the Big 12, the goal of
this column is to look at which players are performing above or below what we
would expect. I am focusing on players that have played at least 20% of their
teams minutes when active.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">SEC Freshmen</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">19.5, 85%, 28%, 118.3, *+Ben
Simmons, LSU</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">17.4, 85%, 25%, 109.3, *+Jamal
Murray, Kentucky</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">13.7, 74%, 22%, 108.3, *+Malik
Newman, Mississippi St.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">11.9, 63%, 21%, 117.4, *Kevaughn
Allen, Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">11.5, 54%, 23%, 118.5, *Tyler
Davis, Texas A&M</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">11.0, 60%, 23%, 104.7,
Kevin Puryear, Missouri</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.8, 62%, 22%, 111.6, *Quinndary
Weatherspoon, Mississippi St.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.3, 80%, 21%, 96.4, *+Isaiah
Briscoe, Kentucky</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">9.8, 70%, 15%, 111.3, *+Antonio
Blakeney, LSU</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.7, 56%, 18%, 101.7,
Bryce Brown, Auburn</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.0, 65%, 21%, 91.6,
Terrence Phillips, Missouri</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.5, 42%, 21%, 107.7, *+Skal
Labissiere, Kentucky</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.3, 48%, 27%, 81.4, *+P.J.
Dozier, South Carolina</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Players marked with a *
were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked
as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Too many words have already
been written about Ben Simmons for me to provide any new insights. Among
Kentucky's trio of Top 15 recruits, Jamal Murray has been brilliant, while Skal
Labissiere's efficient shooting masks his lack of strength and low rebounding
totals. Isaiah Briscoe has been great at getting to the line, but terrible at
converting at the charity stripe, which makes for an inefficient player.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Top 10 recruit Malik
Newman got off to a slow start due to injury, but he has been performing well.
In fact, Mississippi St.'s offense has improved substantially from 255th last
season to 58th this season. The problem is the Mississippi St. defense has
somehow gotten worse. Defense is supposed to be Ben Howland's specialty, but
the lack of quality post players has prevented him from fielding a quality
defensive team.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">As for the other Top 25
recruits, Antonio Blakeney rarely touches the ball which has kept his turnover
numbers down and boosted his efficiency. But since Blakeney rarely touches the
ball, it is hard to rate his overall game at this point. And PJ Dozier's size
has helped him become effective at feeding the post and creating turnovers, but
he is still a little too turnover prone for South Carolina to truly be an elite
team.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Sometimes a player's
performance is a little bit about opportunity. Missouri's Terrence Phillips has
been lucky enough to play for a bad team where minutes were available right
away. But that doesn't mean Phillips has been efficient. But do not knock Kevin
Puryear. Puryear has been Missouri's most efficient starter and a real bright
spot on a struggling team. Puryear was not considered to be an elite prospect
by any of the recruiting services.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Because of his injury,
Alabama's Dazon Ingram is not listed in the table, but he was playing
significant minutes early in the season.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">6</span>.9, 43%, 18%, 116.0,
Admiral Schofield, Tennessee</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.8, 45%, 18%, 108.1, *D.J.
Hogg, Texas A&M</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.7, 48%, 19%, 103.7, *Admon
Gilder, Texas A&M</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.2, 46%, 21%, 87.9, *+Jimmy
Whitt, Arkansas</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.8, 34%, 23%, 102.4,
Chris Silva, South Carolina</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.5, 35%, 22%, 105.4,
K.J. Walton, Missouri</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.4, 40%, 18%, 98.1, *Brandon
Sampson, LSU</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 42%, 19%, 84.5, *Horace
Spencer, Auburn</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 31%, 18%, 112.8,
Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, Mississippi</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Admiral Schofield has
been a total surprise for Tennessee. None of the scouting services expected
anything significant from him. But what is crazy is there have actually been
times when the 6'5" Schofield has been used at center by the Volunteers.
That makes me wonder if his skill set will really translate when the Volunteers
have a better team, but kudos to the freshman for making it work.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">We pegged Jimmy Whitt as
an instant impact player because Anton Beard's legal situation was not resolved
at the start of the season and it wasn't clear when Beard would play. Moreover,
Jabirl Durham has always been a little too turnover prone, and Whitt had some
ball-handling skills. But players ranked in the 50-100 range like Whitt aren't
always ready for a large role right away, and his situation tells a bit about
Arkansas' season. Whitt started early, the team struggled, and Arkansas fell
out of the Top 100. But when Beard came back, Whitt saw his minutes shrink, and
Arkansas is now projected by Kenpom.com to win 10 games in the SEC.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">The point of this isn't
to knock Whitt. His profile (playing early but making some mistakes) points to
the exact type of player you would expect to make a big sophomore leap next
season. But the point is to highlight what Florida's Kevaughn Allen has done.
(Allen was in the first table.) Allen and Whitt were almost ranked identically
by the scouting services, but Allen has become a super-efficient, super
effective scorer in his first year. For someone outside the Top 50, that is
very impressive.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Texas A&M had a trio
of prospects ranked in the 30-50 range where it was very difficult to project
how good they would be. As it turned out, the results were across the board.
Tyler Davis has been phenomenal, DJ Hogg has been a solid back-of-the-rotation
player, and Elijah Thomas struggled with turnovers and free throw shooting
before electing to transfer. Admon Gilder, RSCI #85 has also been a solid
reserve.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.8, 40%, 14%, 95.8, Cullen
VanLeer, Missouri</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.6, 31%, 21%, 87.0,
Derek Ogbeide, Georgia</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 21%, 20%, 107.3,
Joe Toye, Vanderbilt</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 28%, 16%, 97.5,
Camron Justice, Vanderbilt</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.2, 24%, 19%, 91.3,
Shembari Phillips, Tennessee</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.9, 41%, 14%, 79.6,
Mike Edwards, Georgia</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.7, 27%, 14%, 105.1,
Donta Hall, Alabama</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, 28%, 14%, 97.1, *Kevarrius
Hayes, Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.2, 30%, 14%, 92.7, *Charles
Matthews, Kentucky</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.2, 29%, 16%, 67.8, *+Brandone
Francis-Ramirez, Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, 24%, 11%, 94.1,
E'Torrion Wilridge, Georgia</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, 21%, 14%, 67.6,
Brandon Austin, Alabama</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, 20%, 17%, 78.7,
Will Jackson, Georgia</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.4, 26%, 9%, 109.0,
Kyle Alexander, Tennessee</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.1, 21%, 15%, 60.5,
Aric Holman, Mississippi St.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">How many freshmen are playing meaningful minutes? In the Big
12 there were 1.5 freshman per team, in the SEC, the number is 2.6 per team. I
really feel like the SEC is in the best shape it has been at in several years.
But sometimes, to get better, you have to play young players in the rotation,
and that isn't always a painless process. A number of the players in this last
group have been flat out ineffective, despite earning minutes at the back of
the rotation.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Florida St.'s Xavier Rathan-Mayes was an elite prospect who
was ineligible, sat out a year, and debuted at 15 PPG. Florida's Brandon
Francis-Ramirez was an elite prospect who was ineligible, sat out a year, and
is now scoring 2 PPG.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Francis-Ramirez struggles are even more surprising given
that the team was expecting to give him the ball early and often. Florida was a
dreadful offensive team last year and an outsider shooter was sorely needed.
Unfortunately, Francis-Ramirez shot has broken this year. He had made 1 of his
last 23 three point attempts heading into Saturday's game against West Virginia,
and had made only 5 of 40 threes on the season. So of course he was 3 of 3 from
deep in the Gator's win over the Mountaineers. I have no idea if that turns his
season around, but Florida should be thankful that </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Kevaughn Allen has played so well, because Francis-Ramirez has
not.</span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I
am not listing Kentucky's Isaac Humphries in the table, though he was viewed as
a Top 100 level recruit. Humphries played major minutes in exactly one game
this year.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">SEC Jucos</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.9, 71%, 16%, 109.4,
Rasheed Brooks, Mississippi</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.9, 31%, 17%, 113.9,
Justin Leon, Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 39%, 14%, 102.6,
Russell Woods, Missouri</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">If JUCOs are lottery tickets, no one in the SEC won the Powerball. Mychal Mulder was considered the Top JUCO
player joining the SEC this year and he isn't playing for Kentucky. TJ Dunans
was probably the next highest rated JUCO recruit, but he got
hurt. And Tennessee's Ray Kasongo isn't playing
either.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">SEC D1 Transfers</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">18.5, 86%, 28%, 108.2,
Kareem Canty, Auburn, 16.3, Marshall</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">17.0, 65%, 25%, 118.8,
Dusty Hannahs, Arkansas, 7.7, Texas Tech</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">15.3, 72%, 28%, 102.0,
Tyler Harris, Auburn, 9.9, Providence</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">13.0, 68%, 24%, 100.9,
Craig Victor, LSU, 3.1, Arizona</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.5, 60%, 23%, 104.3,
John Egbunu, Florida, 7.4, South Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">9.8, 70%, 18%, 103.4,
Arthur Edwards, Alabama, 3.9, New Mexico</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.9, 61%, 19%, 97.9,
Tomasz Gielo, Mississippi, 12.0, Liberty</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.4, 33%, 24%, 90.0, Sam
Finley, Mississippi, 12.5, UC Riverside</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.8, 68%, 12%, 116.4,
Anthony Collins, Texas A&M, 7.1, South Florida</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.7, 35%, 19%, 95.6,
Nolan Cressler, Vanderbilt, 16.8, Cornell</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.6, 31%, 15%, 104.1,
Johnny Zuppardo, Mississippi St., 1.3, Arkansas St.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.6, 23%, 13%, 111.2,
Willy Kouassi, Arkansas, 4.6, Kennesaw St.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The biggest surprise to me is Anthony Collins of Texas
A&M. Though he still isn't a major scorer, the fifth year senior has never
been efficient before this season. His ORtg has been 99, 97, 88 (injury year),
and 96. This year he's achieved unparalleled levels of efficiency by never
shooting. His shot percentage of 8% is the lowest of his career. And even
adding in assists, his overall usage rate of 12% is also a career low. I
honestly did not think Collins could be the PG of an elite team, but Texas
A&M is proving me wrong.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Dusty Hannahs, Tyler Harris, Craig Victor, and John Egbunu
were all expected to be key players for their new teams, so it is not a surprise
they would be playing a lot of minutes. But what is surprising is that all four
have become much more aggressive scorers with their new teams, all while
maintaining solid levels of efficiency.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Auburn's Kareem Canty has improved his efficiency this
season by shooting much better than he did at Marshall. (Auburn has been
slightly disappointing this year. Daniel Purifoy's ineligibility and TJ Dunans
injury are a part of that, but Canty has more than done his part.)</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The only transfer on this list who is trending below
expectations is probably Sam Finely of Ole Miss. Finley is a very aggressive
player on the floor and at UC Riverside he wasn't very efficient. But with a
year of JUCO in between, it seemed plausible he might have found his shot. He
hasn't and as a result Andy Kennedy is reluctant to play him.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div>
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Finally Playing</span></u><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.8, 42%, 17%, 125.9,
Derek Willis, Kentucky</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.1, 44%, 19%, 108.4,
Marcanvis Hymon, Mississippi</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.5, 26%, 19%, 109.8,
Aaron Epps, LSU</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.8, 29%, 20%, 100.3,
Josh Henderson, Vanderbilt</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, 39%, 19%, 77.8,
Keaton Miles, Arkansas</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.2, 42%, 13%, 98.0,
Trey Thompson, Arkansas</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.8, 24%, 19%, 84.6,
Elbert Robinson III, LSU</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.7, 46%, 12%, 84.3,
Houston Kessler, Georgia</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">I didn't do the above
table in the Big 12 column, but I probably should have. There are a handful of
returning players that have played so few minutes last season, that we should
probably view their presence in the rotation as a debut.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Because of the one-and-done nature of the program, Kentucky fans get to
cheer for fewer players who develop over the course of their career. But Derek
Willis is the classic player who has worked hard and is finally earning playing
time.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Elbert Robinson was a former Top 100 recruit, and while big men
sometimes develop later, he is clearly still behind the curve.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Josh Henderson played more minutes in 2013 (his first full season) then
he has in the next three seasons combined. That is a weird statistical profile.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Returning Players</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As noted in the Big 12 column, when interpreting changes in
scoring, we should consider the difference in defenses faced and the
differences in pace year to year. While South Carolina has played a much easier
slate of defenses relative to the full year last year, Vanderbilt's schedule is
almost on par with last year. Thus we should discount any improvements in ORtg
for South Carolina players slightly.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChDef, Team, ChRawPace</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.5, South Carolina, 7.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.7, Missouri, 5.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, Alabama, 4.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, Mississippi, 2.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.2, Kentucky, 5.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, Georgia, 3.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, Auburn, 5.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.4, Texas A&M, 5.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.4, Arkansas, 1.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, Florida, 7.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.1, Mississippi St.,
6.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.9, LSU, 4.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.9, Tennessee, 11.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.8, Vanderbilt, 6.6</span></div>
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Similarly, even the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>team with the biggest drop in pace in the SEC (Arkansas) is currently
tracking about two more possessions per game than they did over the full season
last year. (Games slow down later in the year.) So when we compare this year's
PPG numbers to last year's numbers, keep that in mind.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Here are the players with the largest changes in PPG this
year, with the current PPG on the far right:</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">12.8, 45%, 6%, 15.4, +Moses
Kingsley, Arkansas, Jr, 16.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">12.7, 9%, 8%, 14.1,
Kevin Punter, Tennessee, Sr, 23.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.8, 29%, 9%, 13.7, +Yante
Maten, Georgia, So, 15.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10.4, 30%, 8%, 2.8,
Tyler Ulis, Kentucky, So, 16.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">9.4, 35%, 7%, 5.5, +Retin
Obasohan, Alabama, Sr, 15.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">8.5, 25%, 2%, 11.9,
Anthlon Bell, Arkansas, Sr, 16.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.0, 7%, 7%, 6.0, J.J.
Frazier, Georgia, Jr, 16.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.0, 11%, 3%, 3.0,
Stefan Moody, Mississippi, Sr, 23.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">6.8, 17%, 3%, 17.0,
Michael Carrera, South Carolina, Sr, 14.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.7, 3%, 3%, 20.6, Gavin
Ware, Mississippi St., Sr, 15.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.5, 23%, 5%, 37.3,
Tonny Trocha-Morelos, Texas A&M, So, 7.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.1, 3%, 5%, -5.1,
Sebastian Saiz, Mississippi, Jr, 12.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">5.0, 17%, 1%, 17.7,
Detrick Mostella, Tennessee, So, 8.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.9, 0%, 7%, -6.5, Wade
Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt, So, 14.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.6, 4%, 3%, 0.5, +Robert
Hubbs III, Tennessee, Jr, 11.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Players we projected as
breakout scorers at SI.com are marked with a +. We projected eight SEC players
in this category. Three of our breakout players (Kingsley, Maten, and Obasohan)
have clearly delivered. I'll discuss the failures below.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">First, Robert Hubbs is
scoring at a higher clip, but much of that jump in scoring is pace-related.
After averaging 61 possessions per game last year, Tennessee is up to 73
possessions per game this year. Hubbs isn't really any more efficient. You can
say Hubbs is shooting a little more, but his is probably the least impressive
jump from 7.2 PPG to 11.8 PPG that you are going to find.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Kevin Punter on the
other hand really has gotten better. Yante Maten has seen the largest jump in
usage rate in the SEC, but Punter is a close second. To use 8% more possessions
and see your efficiency jump substantially is amazing. And Punter has improved
in every area. He has a higher assist rate, lower turnover rate, and better shooting
percentage in FTs, twos, and threes. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Tyler Ulis has seen his
usage rate increase substantially too. Ken Pomeroy always used to show these
graphs about how players rarely shoot more. I think he used it to argue that
Patric Young was likely to stay a role player for Florida. But here is the
thing, when a player goes from being the 5th or 6th best player on his team to
the first or second best, the coach is going to draw up a lot more plays to get
him the ball. Ulis driving the basketball is now a much more important option
for Kentucky and he has delivered.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">It was fair to ask
before the season if Tony Trocha-Morelos was even going to play. Texas A&M
had a great recruiting class coming in, and after he made just 30% of his two
point attempts last season, he seemed like the odd man out. But Trocha-Morelos
has had the biggest jump in efficiency in the SEC. And he did that while
raising his usage rate as well. He still isn't a star, but he is no longer an
offensive liability for the Aggies.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.6, 21%, 0%, 2.1,
Mindaugas Kacinas, South Carolina, Sr, 10.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.4, 43%, 3%, 13.9,
Jabril Durham, Arkansas, Sr, 6.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.4, 23%, 3%, -0.5,
Marcus Lee, Kentucky, Jr, 7.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 36%, -1%, 13.5,
Anthony Perez-Cortesia, Mississippi, Sr, 7.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.3, 36%, -1%, -8.3,
Devon Baulkman, Tennessee, Sr, 9.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.1, 17%, -1%, 24.3,
Jeff Roberson, Vanderbilt, So, 8.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">4.0, 15%, 0%, 10.9, +Alex
Poythress, Kentucky, Sr, 9.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.6, 29%, -1%, 36.1,
T.J. Lang, Auburn, So, 6.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.2, 16%, 4%, 11.5,
Manuale Watkins, Arkansas, Jr, 5.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.1, 2%, 5%, 13.7, Chris
Chiozza, Florida, So, 7.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.1, -12%, 2%, 3.8,
Jalen Jones, Texas A&M, Sr, 16.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.1, 16%, -1%, -7.8,
Shannon Hale, Alabama, Jr, 11.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.1, 12%, 1%, 10.5,
Riley Norris, Alabama, So, 7.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">3.0, 19%, 3%, 5.1, +Justin
Coleman, Alabama, So, 7.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">The quickest way to a
big jump in efficiency is usually outside shooting. Auburn's TJ Lang raised his
three point percentage from 34% to 44% and saw a big efficiency rise. He still
rarely shoots so he is still not a major scorer, but that was the second
biggest jump in efficiency in the SEC this year. The third biggest jump belong
to Vanderbilt's Jeff Roberson. Roberson's jump in efficiency is largely due to
a decrease in turnover rate.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">But jumps in efficiency
for role players are usually less interesting. That is why the jump in
efficiency for Buddy Hield was so phenomenal. He is shooting much better and he
is no role player. Probably the best the SEC can say about a major scorer
upping his efficiency is Gavin Ware upping his shooting percentage from 50% to
62% this season which led to that 21 point jump in efficiency in the previous
table.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Justin Coleman was the
#72 recruit in 2015. We pegged him as a breakout candidate this year because he
almost certainly had to shoot better than the 27% he shot on twos and 23% on
threes that he shot as a freshman. His free throw percentage suggested he could
work hard and become a good shooter. But that has not happened. The best thing
you can say is Coleman has raised his percentage on twos to 39%, but that isn't
good enough. (Coleman seems stuck on Kasey Hill’s trajectory and that isn’t
necessarily a good thing.)</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">I am showing the numbers
for Kentucky's Alex Poythress and DeVon Walker (below) relative to two years
ago as both players missed most of last season due to injury. Poythress hasn't
been a total disappointment, but with Labissierre struggling, he hasn't taken
advantage and become the dominant low-post option Kentucky needs.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.7, 6%, -2%, 20.3,
Devin Robinson, Florida, So, 9.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.3, -16%, 2%, -0.6,
Anton Beard, Arkansas, So, 7.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">2.0, 15%, 0%, 8.0, I.J.
Ready, Mississippi St., Jr, 10.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.9, 16%, 2%, -1.6, +Namon
Wright, Missouri, So, 8.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, 5%, -3%, 18.2,
Matthew Fisher-Davis, Vanderbilt, So, 9.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.8, 0%, 2%, 2.7, Kenny
Gaines, Georgia, Sr, 13.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.7, 17%, -3%, 7.8,
Dorian Finney-Smith, Florida, Sr, 14.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.6, -3%, 2%, 6.5,
Laimonas Chatkevicius, South Carolina, Sr, 10.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.5, 3%, 1%, 1.6,
Tramaine Isabell, Missouri, So, 5.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, -1%, 0%, -6.5,
Armani Moore, Tennessee, Sr, 11.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, 16%, 0%, -3.3,
Craig Sword, Mississippi St., Sr, 12.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.3, 33%, 1%, -0.9,
Kenny Paul Geno, Georgia, Jr, 2.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.2, 1%, 0%, 12.7, Ryan
Rosburg, Missouri, Sr, 4.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.1, -16%, 4%, -2.2,
Kasey Hill, Florida, Jr, 8.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">1.1, 7%, 2%, 2.4, Danuel
House, Texas A&M, Sr, 15.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.8, 8%, 0%, -9.1,
Martavious Newby, Mississippi, Sr, 4.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.7, 1%, -2%, 9.1,
Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina, Jr, 11.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.4, -14%, 2%, 8.1, Tim
Quarterman, LSU, Jr, 11.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.2, 3%, -6%, 19.9,
Travis Daniels, Mississippi St., Sr, 6.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.1, -5%, 2%, -15.0,
Luke Kornet, Vanderbilt, Jr, 8.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">0.1, 9%, 1%, 4.4, Wes
Clark, Missouri, Jr, 10.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">I realize that
Vanderbilt's Luke Kornet has had a knee injury this season and that probably
accounts for some of his loss of efficiency. But the truth is, Kornet's hot
three point shooting last year is starting to look like a fluke. He shot 24%
from deep as a freshman, 41% last season, and is now shooting 23% this season.
Even when Vanderbilt was winning early in the year before Kornet had to miss a
few games, he started the year 0-13 from deep.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.2, 13%, 0%, -7.5, +Jakeenan
Gant, Missouri, So, 4.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.2, 0%, 1%, -17.7,
DeVon Walker, Florida, Jr, 2.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.2, -5%, 1%, -11.2,
Jimmie Taylor, Alabama, Jr, 5.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, 6%, 0%, -14.1,
Tavario Miller, Texas A&M, Jr, 2.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.3, -13%, -2%, 14.4,
Duane Notice, South Carolina, Jr, 11.4</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.5, -36%, -1%, 8.6,
Keith Hornsby, LSU, Sr, 12.9</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.7, -16%, 0%, 7.9,
Josh Gray, LSU, Sr, 6.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.7, -3%, -2%, -0.6,
Charles Mann, Georgia, Sr, 10.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.8, -9%, 1%, -0.6,
Damian Jones, Vanderbilt, Jr, 13.6</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-0.8, -8%, -4%, 22.6,
Jordon Granger, Auburn, Sr, 4.1</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.1, -23%, 2%, -6.4,
D'Angelo Allen, Missouri, So, 2.2</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.3, -10%, -3%, 11.7,
Alex Caruso, Texas A&M, Sr, 7.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.4, -6%, -4%, -2.1,
Cinmeon Bowers, Auburn, Sr, 10.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.5, -13%, -1%, -11.4,
Jalyn Patterson, LSU, So, 5.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.6, -7%, -6%, 18.3,
Michael Kessens, Alabama, Jr, 4.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.8, -5%, -7%, -0.5,
Marcus Stroman, South Carolina, So, 2.5</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-1.9, -6%, -1%, -12.2,
Justin McKie, South Carolina, Jr, 1.3</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-3.0, -13%, -6%, 8.4,
Derek Reese, Tennessee, Sr, 3.0</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-3.5, -9%, -2%, -14.1,
Riley LaChance, Vanderbilt, So, 8.8</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">-4.4, -6%, -9%, 1.5,
Fred Thomas, Mississippi St., Sr, 4.7</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Riley LaChance's decline is <span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">o<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">ne</span></span> reason that Vanderbilt is trending below expectations on th<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">e season<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif";">.</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Missouri has lost a lot
of talent in recent years, but the team was not devoid of elite recruits. Namon
Wright and Jakeenan Gant were top 100 recruits heading into their sophomore
campaign. With good effort, the coaching staff would certainly consider using
them more. Instead, both have gotten lost and the Missouri offense is broken.
Both Gant and Wright have seen their shooting percentages plummet since last
season and Missouri is now definitively the worst team in the SEC.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The tables do not show
Auburn's Tahj Shamsid-Deen or Florida's Alex Murphy who have barely played due
to injuries. Tennessee's Jabari McGhee and Mississippi St.'s Fallou Ndiaye and
Demetrius Houston have also transferred or been kicked off their respective
teams.</span>Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-25285815004499935622016-01-30T00:04:00.001-05:002016-01-30T00:04:28.978-05:00Big 12 Player Development<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This is the first of several posts on player
development in the major conferences. I basically wanted to look at every
player in the top leagues and see who was performing above or below what we
should typically expect.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I am sure someone is going to complain that I am not
writing enough about all the stats (rebounding, blocks). Ideally I would show
25 stats on every player to tell the whole story, but this is hard enough to
read just focusing on scoring and efficiency, so I’m electing not to expand
this further. Also, while it may seem odd to focus so much on PPG and playing
time, I think that playing time is a very under-rated metric of player quality.
A player with a 130 ORtg who rarely plays (like Brannen Greene of Kansas) is
clearly not perceived by the coaching staff as one of the team’s most important
players.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The minutes’ percentages in the following tables are
based on games played, not the full season, so I am showing a higher percentage
of minutes for a mid-year transfer like Deonte Burton than you would see on
Kenpom.com. I am going to focus on players that have played over 20% of their
team’s minutes when they have played. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Big 12 Freshmen<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player,
Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">12.6, 73%, 26%, 108.5, *+Jawun
Evans, Oklahoma St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">10.4, 66%, 20%, 111.0,
Dean Wade, Kansas St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">9.9, 68%, 21%, 99.6,
Kamau Stokes, Kansas St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.7, 53%, 23%, 98.3,
Barry Brown, Kansas St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.1, 54%, 18%, 105.3, *+Eric
Davis, Texas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">6.4, 42%, 26%, 84.1, *Kerwin
Roach, Jr., Texas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">6.1, 43%, 24%, 86.7,
J.D. Miller, TCU<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.6, 36%, 25%, 90.2, *Tevin
Mack, Texas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.6, 26%, 22%, 110.3, *Carlton
Bragg, Kansas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.5, 46%, 17%, 93.1, *+Esa
Ahmad, West Virginia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.4, 23%, 22%, 104.9, *+Cheick
Diallo, Kansas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.3, 30%, 14%, 120.5, *King
McClure, Baylor<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.5, 27%, 19%, 99.3, Dante
Buford, Oklahoma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.8, 31%, 16%, 111.0,
Jake Lindsey, Baylor<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.4, 21%, 16%, 91.1,
Christian James, Oklahoma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There are other freshmen in the Big 12. Kansas’
Lagerald Vick was even a Top 100 recruit. But the above 15 players are the only
ones to earn meaningful playing time. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Players marked with a * were consensus Top 100
recruits. Players we pegged as instant impact recruits at SI.com are marked
with a +. Tempo is playing somewhat of a role here, as Oklahoma is getting
about 10% more possessions per game than Oklahoma St. But I didn’t think it
mattered enough to warrant listing another number in the table. If you care, you
can find pace stats at Kenpom.com, but keep in mind that when comparing PPG you
should think about raw pace, not adjusted pace.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Cheick Diallo was the only Top 10 recruit in the
conference this year and he has struggled for playing time in Kansas’ unsettled six-man
frontcourt rotation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously getting a
late start on the season (due to eligibility issues) put him behind the curve.
And there were always a chorus of people who said his defense was ahead of his
offense. But for Diallo to be sitting at 4.4 PPG and barely playing is hugely
disappointing. There was certainly ample reason to think that with his size and
athleticism that he would putting home a number of put-back dunks at this point.
In fairness, none of Diallo’s per-possession statistics have been terrible, but
the coaching staff still does not trust him for major minutes at this point.
The same can be said of Kansas’ Carlton Bragg.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Jawun Evans was the only other Big 12 prospect ranked
high enough to expect an immediate impact, and Evans has delivered. We pegged
Esa Ahmad as one of the next most likely stars based on the fact that West
Virginia planned to start him. But while Ahmad has started almost every game
for the Mountaineers, he has also been the team’s least efficient rotation
player. Ahmad is essentially playing because of his athleticism and reach. He’s
among the nation’s best at getting blocks and steals. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Top 100 recruit King McClure should not be viewed as a
bust despite his low PPG. Due to his heart condition diagnosis, McClure is not
being pushed into major college minutes right away, and his efficiency has been
very solid.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The big surprise is Kansas St. having three of the
league’s top scoring freshman. Certainly, any team with Bruce Weber on the
sideline is going to play solid defense. But there were a lot of reasons to
expect Kansas St. to be horrible offensively this season. Yet somehow, the
Wildcats have played well enough on offense to have a Top 50 margin-of-victory.
And those three freshman have more than held their own. Notice that no one in
Kansas St.’s recruiting class was a consensus Top 100 recruit. And while only
Dean Wade has been super-efficient, Stokes and Brown have done quite well for
unranked freshmen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Big 12 JUCOs<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player,
Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">11.3, 59%, 22%, 115.2,
Vladimir Brodziansky, TCU<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">11.2, 67%, 26%, 89.0,
Malique Trent, TCU<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.0, 31%, 15%, 106.6,
Corlbe Ervin, Kansas St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.9, 22%, 19%, 93.2,
Akolda Manyang, Oklahoma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.9, 33%, 12%, 104.1,
Austin Budke, Kansas St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.3, 22%, 15%, 96.1,
Teyvon Myers, West Virginia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Austin Budke was recruited as a walk-on, but the JUCO
transfer has made it into Kansas St.’s rotation. All of these players (except
Budke) were considered Top 100 JUCO transfers, but that label is virtually
meaningless. If you learn anything from me about college basketball, please
learn that JUCO transfers are lottery tickets. Because of the differences in
competition, it is extremely hard to tell what skills will transfer from the
JUCO game to the D1 game. If you read the limited scouting on the JUCO ranks, Oklahoma’s
Akolda Manyang, Oklahoma St.’s Igor Ibaka, and West Virginia’s Teyvon Myers
were the three Big 12 JUCO players that received the most hype. Now Manyang has
struggled to make twos on a dominant offense where he gets almost no defensive
attention, Ibaka has barely played at all and didn’t play enough to show up in
my table, and Myers has fallen out of the deep West Virginia rotation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile, Vladamir Brodziansky received some hype,
but over the summer I read that due to TCU’s veteran front-court, Brodziansky
was expected to redshirt. And then, lo and behold, Brodziansky became TCU’s
best front-court player and stole the playing time away from his teammates. No
one can predict JUCOs. You just never know with these guys.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Big 12 Walk-On<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player,
Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.4, 27%, 21%, 92.1,
Matthew Temple, Texas Tech<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Somehow Matthew Temple has become a rotation player
for Texas Tech. Good for him.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Big 12 D1 Transfers<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player,
Team, Former PPG, Former Team<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.9, 40%, 27%, 111.5,
Chris Olivier, Oklahoma St., 13.0, Eastern Illinois<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.5, 39%, 23%, 119.9,
Deonte Burton, Iowa St., 6.4, Marquette<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.5, 33%, 15%, 100.7,
Hallice Cooke, Iowa St., 8.2, Oregon St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.2, 37%, 15%, 96.9,
Devon Thomas, Texas Tech, 3.2, Missouri St.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.1, 27%, 16%, 106.6,
Shaquille Cleare, Texas, 3.0, Maryland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Shaquille Cleare is mildly disappointing. The former
Top 100 recruit has been stuck as the back-up center for Texas even with the
injury to Cameron Ridley. But the Big 12’s D1 transfers have all performed
about as expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Returning Players<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I am not going to show stats for the injured Phil
Forte, Naz Long, or Cameron Ridley. Obviously injuries to Forte and Long have
been devastating to those teams. The loss of Forte turned Oklahoma St. from a
dark-horse NCAA tournament team to a team that is barely hanging on in the
ferocious Big 12. Oklahoma St. isn’t terrible, but with the league as deep as
it is, it is just so hard to win without the team’s lights out scorer. And
Long’s injury probably knocked Iowa St. from the ranks of teams likely to make
the Elite Eight. It isn’t that Long isn’t replaceable, but Iowa St.’s depth is
now sorely lacking. I’m not sure that Ridley’s absence has been a huge negative
to Texas, only because Shaka Smart wants to play a smaller lineup, and he has
been more empowered to do so with Ridley out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Notably, Texas Tech’s Isaiah Manderson and Texas’ Jordan Barnett played
very little this year, are transferring, and are not included in the tables.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I am going to switch the format now to focus more on
player development. Thus in the next tables I am going to focus on changes in
production. But comparing seasons is a little bit difficult. In particular,
most teams are nearly done with their “easy” games and have some of their
hardest games left on the schedule. And this has been complicated by the rule
changes that have made it easier to score this year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The table below shows the change in the average
opponent defense (this year relative to last year). While Texas Tech has
actually played a nearly equivalent schedule of defenses to last year, West
Virginia’s opponent’s defenses have been much easier this season. And thus any
inflation in the ORtg of players on West Virginia should be discounted
slightly.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">I also show the change
in raw pace and while Oklahoma St.’s games have had slightly more possessions
so far this year (compared to the full year last year), Texas Tech’s games have
had a full 6 more possessions per game. Pace slows later in the year, so when we have a full season of data, the increases will be smaller. But right now, comparing half a season to a full season, that is the appropriate comparison.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChOppDef, Team, ChPace<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.3, West Virginia, 3.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.2, Oklahoma St., 2.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.8, Kansas St., 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.4, Baylor, 5.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.3, Kansas, 3.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.6, Iowa St., 4.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.0, Texas, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.9, Oklahoma, 5.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.6, TCU, 5.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.3, Texas Tech, 6.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Taking the difference in defense and pace into consideration, here are the
players with the biggest jumps in scoring in the Big 12 relative to last season.
I start with the change in PPG, then I show the change in percentage of minutes,
then the change in possessions’ used, then the change in ORtg. The current PPG
is shown on the far right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChPPG, ChMin%, ChPoss%,
ChORtg, Player, Team, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.5, 3%, 2%, 16.9, Buddy
Hield, Oklahoma, 25.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">7.9, 20%, 4%, 18.2,
Jaysean Paige, West Virginia, 13.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">7.6, 36%, 5%, 11.4,
Leyton Hammonds, Oklahoma St., 9.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">7.4, 32%, 1%, 18.8, +Allerik
Freeman, Baylor, 12.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">7.1, 36%, 0%, 11.4,
Abdel Nader, Iowa St., 12.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">7.1, 48%, -3%, 6.1,
Chauncey Collins, TCU, 10.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">6.5, 15%, 4%, 13.4,
Wesley Iwundu, Kansas St., 12.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.7, 21%, 2%, 10.2, +Justin
Edwards, Kansas St., 12.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.6, -5%, 2%, 27.5,
Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma, 14.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.4, 27%, -2%, 44.3,
Aaron Ross, Texas Tech, 8.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.2, 41%, -2%, 9.4, Matt
Thomas, Iowa St., 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.1, -1%, 1%, 19.5,
Wayne Selden, Kansas, 14.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">As of Saturday morning,
January 30<sup>th</sup>, Oklahoma has the top margin-of-victory in the nation
and has been voted #1 by many pollsters. In the preseason, everyone thought
this team would be strong, but few experts suspected it would be this strong.
At this point, Jordan Woodard has had the biggest improvement in efficiency in
the entire Big 12. He did it be reducing his turnovers and improving his three
point shooting. But it also helps a lot that Buddy Hield is now drawing a
ridiculous amount of defensive attention, making Woodard’s job substantially
easier. To say Hield’s improvement is jaw-dropping is an understatement. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hield improved from 16.5 PPG as a sophomore to
17.4 PPG as a junior. It would be logical for him to improve by another point
or two in his senior year. But for a player like Hield, who was not believed to
have can’t-miss NBA-level athleticism in the preseason, to somehow increase his
scoring to 25.9 PPG as a senior, is ridiculous. And almost all that improvement
is due to improved shooting accuracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Technically Aaron Ross
has seen a greater jump in efficiency than Woodard, but Ross was injured last
year and his low efficiency should be thrown out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">In the preseason, we
picked breakout players at SI.com. Two Big 12 players, Allerik Freeman, and
Justin Edwards, made our list. These are noted with a “+”. Both have delivered.
We also predicted a rather substantial leap in efficiency for Wayne Selden.
After a strong freshman year, last year’s shooting slump looked like a statistical
fluke, and that has proven to be the case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Jaysean Paige’s
development is a key reason West Virginia has gone from a borderline Top 25
team in the preseason to a Top 10 team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Big 12’s biggest
improvements are impressive. You will not see nearly as many experienced
players with huge efficiency gains in the other leagues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChPPG, ChMin%, ChPoss%,
ChORtg, Player, Team, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.1, 33%, -5%, 11.1,
T.J. Maston, Baylor, 7.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.8, 42%, -3%, 12.6, Devonte'
Graham, Kansas, 10.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.7, 20%, 1%, 6.5, Jeff
Newberry, Oklahoma St., 11.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.4, 42%, -1%, -3.4,
Jeffrey Carroll, Oklahoma St., 8.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.3, 28%, 2%, 19.9,
Khadeem Lattin, Oklahoma, 6.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.0, 21%, 4%, 1.9, Tarik
Phillip, West Virginia, 8.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.9, 4%, -1%, 12.3,
Georges Niang, Iowa St., 19.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.9, 33%, 5%, 0.8,
Ishmail Wainright, Baylor, 5.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.6, 10%, 3%, 8.8, D.J.
Johnson, Kansas St., 6.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.5, 7%, 2%, 2.8, Monte
Morris, Iowa St., 15.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.5, 9%, 0%, 21.5,
Toddrick Gotcher, Texas Tech, 10.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.4, 9%, 3%, 1.5, Zach Smith,
Texas Tech, 9.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.3, 12%, 1%, -0.8,
Daxter Miles, Jr., West Virginia, 10.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.3, 66%, -4%, -40.0,
Michael Williams, TCU, 5.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.3, -4%, 0%, 22.9,
Johnathan Motley, Baylor, 11.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.1, 23%, 1%, 20.1,
Tyree Griffin, Oklahoma St., 4.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">TJ Maston and Devonte’ Graham’s
improvement in efficiency comes with a caveat. They are using fewer
possessions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">In addition to Hield
and Woodard, Khadeem Lattin has become much more efficient for Oklahoma. He is
mostly taking wide-open lay-ups this year, but his two point percentage is substantially
elevated over last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Don’t overlook the
improvement of Georges Niang. Like Hield, Niang is showing that even polished
veteran offensive players can get better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">DJ Johnson’s stats are
relative to two years ago. He missed last season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Michael Williams barely
played last year, so don’t read too much into his decline.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChPPG, ChMin%, ChPoss%,
ChORtg, Player, Team, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.9, 6%, -1%, 10.2,
Perry Ellis, Kansas, 16.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.8, 10%, 1%, 8.5, Jevon
Carter, West Virginia, 11.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.8, 10%, 5%, 14.7,
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Kansas, 5.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.8, 21%, 0%, 13.1,
Isaiah Taylor, Texas, 15.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.7, 26%, -15%, 30.7,
Joe Burton, Oklahoma St., 4.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.6, 25%, 1%, 18.1, Justin
Gray, Texas Tech, 9.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.4, 14%, 4%, -7.8,
Mitchell Solomon, Oklahoma St., 3.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.4, 27%, -2%, 0.3,
Brandon Parrish, TCU, 8.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.4, 13%, 1%, -7.0,
Devonta Abron, TCU, 5.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.3, 19%, -4%, 6.4,
Stephen Hurt, Kansas St., 6.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.3, 12%, -1%, 12.6,
Javan Felix, Texas, 11.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.3, 18%, 1%, 10.8,
Anthony Allen, Jr., Oklahoma St., 3.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.2, -4%, 7%, -4.7,
Karviar Shepherd, TCU, 8.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.1, 4%, -1%, 21.0,
Jonathan Holton, West Virginia, 9.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.1, 8%, 0%, 0.4,
Devaugntah Williams, Texas Tech, 12.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">No one in the Big 12
has seen a bigger jump in possession’s used than TCU’s Karviar Shepherd, and
his efficiency has fallen because of it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChPPG, ChMin%, ChPoss%,
ChORtg, Player, Team, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.0, -7%, 3%, 3.4,
Norense Odiase, Texas Tech, 9.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.9, 29%, 0%, 2.0,
Jameel McKay, Iowa St., 12.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.7, 5%, 0%, 11.9,
Elijah Macon, West Virginia, 6.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.7, 0%, 2%, 6.7, Devin
Williams, West Virginia, 13.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.4, -1%, 1%, -9.6,
Tavarius Shine, Oklahoma St., 4.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.4, 4%, 2%, 9.2, Lester
Medford, Baylor, 9.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.4, 3%, 0%, 10.2,
Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma, 13.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.4, 13%, -2%, 5.6,
Keenan Evans, Texas Tech, 7.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.3, 11%, -2%, 5.8,
Connor Lammert, Texas, 6.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.2, 10%, 0%, -1.7,
Taurean Prince, Baylor, 15.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.1, -11%, -1%, 13.6,
Brannen Greene, Kansas, 6.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.1, 12%, 0%, 6.9,
Prince Ibeh, Texas, 3.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.1, 4%, 0%, -0.1, Ryan
Spangler, Oklahoma, 10.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Tavarious
Shine</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">’s
efficiency is down, but in fairness he is returning from an injury AND he
didn’t get to play as many cupcake teams in the preseason.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">ChPPG, ChMin%, ChPoss%,
ChORtg, Player, Team, CurrentPPG<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.9, -6%, 0%, 6.4, Rico
Gathers, Baylor, 12.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.8, -4%, 2%, 0.5, Frank
Mason, Kansas, 13.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.8, 8%, -3%, 9.7,
Dinjiyl Walker, Oklahoma, 4.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.5, -3%, 1%, 13.6,
Landen Lucas, Kansas, 4.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.5, 11%, -3%, 14.7,
Hunter Mickelson, Kansas, 2.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.5, 0%, -1%, 5.9,
Nathan Adrian, West Virginia, 3.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.2, -32%, 5%, -24.3,
Chris Washburn, TCU, 7.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">-2.1, -18%, -3%, 9.3,
Jamari Traylor, Kansas, 2.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">-3.7, -34%, -2%, -11.1,
Demarcus Holland, Texas, 3.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">-3.7, -33%, -3%, 4.9,
Kendal Yancy, Texas, 2.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Kansas’ Frank Mason got a lot of love in the
preseason, but he hasn’t delivered. Part of that may be because of the
increased defensive attention he is facing, but if you want a reason why
Oklahoma has risen and Kansas has fallen relative to preseason expectations,
here is a pretty clear explainer. Mason plays the most minutes for Kansas and he
is not any more efficient than last year. Meanwhile, Buddy Hield plays the most
minutes for Oklahoma and he has gotten substantially better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Chris Washburn’s numbers are way worse than last
year, but in fairness he is returning from an injury AND he didn’t get to
play any cupcake teams in the preseason.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As a freshman and sophomore, Texas’ Demarcus Holland struggled
to make three point shots. Then as a junior, he suddenly shot 46% from deep. This
year, as a senior, he is struggling again. His good junior season appears to
have been a fluke.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Is Kendal Yancy
going to transfer out of Texas? His minutes have ticked up some lately, but
that is a pretty serious decline in playing time. Most players won’t accept
that.</span>Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-54626429622471311452015-12-04T13:37:00.001-05:002015-12-04T13:37:06.959-05:00Early Season Thoughts
I am taking the year off from writing about college
basketball. But I still follow the sport closely, and occasionally I need to share
a few thoughts. Thus today’s rare column.<o:p></o:p><br />
<o:p> </o:p><br />
<u><span style="font-size: small;">Butler’s Transformation<o:p></o:p></span></u><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Teams are usually pretty consistent stylistically from year
to year. You know you have to fear Michigan’s offense every season. They will
have some quick guards and some big men who can shoot and their perimeter-oriented
attack is lethal year-after-year. You know Louisville is going to let its
guards gamble for steals, rely on a solid back-line to protect the rim, and
play elite defense every year. You know Syracuse is going to play zone defense
and rely on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. You know Duke is
going to deny threes and make a lot of threes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Styles rarely change, but in the preseason our SI
projections thought Butler might change its spots from a defense-oriented team:<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler Last Year, 82<sup>nd</sup> ranked offense, 7<sup>th</sup>
ranked defense<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler SI Projection, 49<sup>th</sup> ranked offense, 35<sup>th</sup>
ranked defense<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
We thought the addition of NC State transfer Tyler Lewis
would help take the Butler offense to the next level, but that the loss of
Kameron Woods physicality and next-level rebounding would cause the defense to
drop off. So far, the effect has been even more dramatic than expected:<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler KenPom Early, 12<sup>th</sup> ranked offense, 79<sup>th</sup>
ranked defense<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Now preseason projections still factor heavily into KenPom’s
numbers, so you might question whether the swing has been this dramatic. But the
raw numbers also support this. Butler misses Woods’ defensive rebounding:<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler Defensive Rebounding Rank<o:p></o:p></div>
2015 9<sup>th</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
2016 142<sup>nd</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
But on offense, things are much better. Last year Alex
Barlow was a passable ball-handler, but he wasn’t great. This year Tyler Lewis
is playing at a much higher level:<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler Offensive Turnover Rate<o:p></o:p></div>
2015 51<sup>st</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
2016 4<sup>th</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler Offensive eFG%<o:p></o:p></div>
2015 201<sup>st</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
2016 27<sup>th</sup><o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Butler remains a fringe Top 25 team, but they are winning in
a completely different way than last season.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="font-size: small;">Over 1000 Words on Providence where I barely mention Kris Dunn<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
In the preseason, SI projected Providence as a fringe bubble
team. We didn’t have them in the field and we thought it would take some
unexpected player performance for them to get there.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
There were a couple of reasons for this skeptical projection.
First, Providence did not have a great defensive team last season. And that was
with two 7-footers Carson Desrosiers and Paschal Chukwu, and another
experienced big man in Tyler Harris playing significant minutes. The Friars
have much less size this season and we expected the Providence defense to be
worse this year.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Second, as great as Kris Dunn is, a lot of Providence’s
returning players just didn’t have great individual projections. Kyron Cartwright,
Jalen Lindsey, and Junior Lomomba were all very passive players last season,
and they still weren’t that efficient given how rarely they shot. Throw in a
freshman Ryan Fazekas who wasn’t ranked high enough to expect an
instant-impact, and you had a group of players who was likely to drag Dunn down
quite a bit.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The key player in the preseason that was intriguing was
Rodney Bullock. CBS Sports.com wrote about how Bullock could score over 15 PPG.
But frankly, that seemed a little optimistic. Players that sit out don’t always
come in and play at a high level.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Here is a list of some of Bullocks peer-type players. These
are players who sat out most or all of last season and who do not have
significant D1 experience. I’m going to exclude intentional red-shirts since
that may suggest players who were not ready. This is a list of players who were
ineligible, injured, or on mission trips.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
10.0 PPG, 95 ORtg, 76% of minutes, Ohio St.’s JaQuan Lyle,
#30 Recruit<o:p></o:p></div>
3.1 PPG, 73 ORtg, 44% of minutes, Florida’s Brandone
Francis-Ramirez, #31 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
4.3 PPG, 104 ORtg, 40% of minutes, UCLA’s Jonah Bolden, #36
Recruit <o:p></o:p><br />
9.8 PPG, 95 ORtg, 64% of minutes, Gonzaga’s Josh Perkins,
#60 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
14.7 PPG, 103 ORtg, 73% of minutes, BYU’s Nick Emery, #61
Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
8.3 PPG, 97 ORtg, 47% of minutes, San Diego St.’s Zylan
Cheatem, #79 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
These teams were all hoping that these players could all step
into a meaningful role this year. But even though they were a year older and
ranked highly out of high school, the results have been inconsistent at best.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
I am not going to list all the similar players from 2014,
but here are a few of the stronger performances for players that sat out un-intentionally
in 2013 and debuted in 2014:<o:p></o:p></div>
10.0 PPG, 101 ORtg, 84% of minutes, UCLA’s Isaac Hamilton,
#19 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
14.9 PPG, 97 ORtg, 84% of minutes, Florida St.’s Xavier
Rathan Mayes, #43 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
11.9 PPG, 99 ORtg, 70% of minutes, Marquette’s Duane Wilson,
#59 Recruit<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The key to me is that even though some of these players were
able to step in and play big roles, none was able to do so at a star-level of
efficiency. So when I read about Rodney Bullock being the key second piece to
take Providence to the NCAA tournament, I was skeptical. Bullock might play a
lot of minutes. And he might have to shoot a lot. But after not playing
basketball for two full seasons, could he really score and be efficient at the
same time? Here are the numbers so far:<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
13.1 PPG, 110 ORtg, 77% of minutes, Providence’s Rodney
Bullock<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
That’s not a bad start. Oh, but let me mention one more
thing. Bullock was NOT a Top 100 recruit like all the other players listed
above. He was not considered a can’t-miss prospect out of high school. His name
has been in the news a lot, but remember that when Brandon Austin and Rodney
Bullock were suspended, it was Austin who was the prized Top 100 recruit.
Bullock was just expected to be another player. Scout, Rivals, and ESPN all
considered Bullock to be a 3-star recruit, which is pretty much the lowest
ranking major conference recruits typically get. ESPN gave him a 77 rating.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
So while I give CBS Sports a ton of credit for going to
practice and raving about Bullock, I also have to say that for a non-elite
recruit to sit out for two seasons and then debut above most Top 100 players
who had to sit out, that’s pretty remarkable.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Of course teams are starting to scout Bullock, and he may
not be able to sustain this level of performance. Bullock was great in the
first four games of the season and he’s been below average in the most recent
four game stretch. But there aren’t very many comparable players who have done
what Bullock is doing. If he keeps it up, he deserves a lot of praise.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
…</div>
<br />
Of course I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Ben Bentil. We
had him on our SI Breakout player list, and while he has exceeded even our
expectations, his breakout is not that unusual for a sophomore. The shocker is
that Bentil is playing 83% of the available minutes for his team. That’s
extremely difficult to do, especially since Providence can rarely afford to let
Bentil guard a less-physical big man. Since Ryan Fazekas and Jalen Lindsey have
to play at the 4-spot whenever Bullock is out, Bentil is playing most of the
game against the opposition’s strongest and most physical post player.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Providence’s two point defense has fallen off to 223<sup>rd</sup>
nationally, which is to be expected when you don’t have any true tall post
players defending the rim. But Bentil’s ability to avoid foul trouble has at
least kept opponent’s honest.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
And most importantly, Providence has been forcing turnovers
at a very high rate. After ranking just 134<sup>th</sup> in turnovers forced
last year, Providence is up to 26<sup>th</sup> in turnovers forced this year.
And that has allowed the team to compensate for the weaker rim protection.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
I can’t tell you how many coaches talk in the preseason
about forcing more turnovers and getting out in transition. Everyone says they
want to do that, but it is hard to force turnovers if players do not prepare
the right way.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
I love UNLV’s roster this year. They have great size and
great athleticism across the board, and quality experience at the PG position.
UNLV looks like they would be an automatic tournament team. But their defense
is just a bad gambling defense. They take way too many chances, and when they
don’t get steals, they give up easy baskets.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Providence is just the opposite. They aren’t getting quite
as many steals. But by pressuring the ball-handler, hugging players off the ball,
and taking away passing lanes, they prevent teams from getting in easy scoring
position.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The difference between UNLV and Providence is that
Providence lets teams make mistakes. They play pressure defense while
maintaining good guarding position and wait for their opponents to make a bad
pass. That’s more effective than gambling. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Ben Bentil will get into foul trouble at some point. And
Dunn is playing on the edge. He might not be so lucky with calls when he goes
on the road in Big East play. So Providence’s lack of depth is going to cost
them in some games. But right now, Providence is playing like a team that can
win in the NCAA tournament.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
And I think my biggest point is that while Kris Dunn will
get most of the credit, and he deserves most of it, this shouldn’t be all about
Dunn. Because of transfers and defections, Ed Cooley has pretty much had an
undermanned roster for several years now. But he continues to develop less-heralded
players into stars. And this year he has found the right buttons to push to
make the defense work. The coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for putting
these pieces together too. There are a lot of coaches that would have performed
worse with this mismatched roster, and we shouldn’t lose sight of that as our
jaws drop at what Dunn is doing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<u><span style="font-size: small;">Quick Thoughts<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
1) Our SI’s projections probably had San Diego St. too high
in the preseason, but I’m shocked at how much Malik Pope has regressed. Pope
was an elite prospect who was on a lot of NBA-watch lists. Last year he had a
5.7% block rate, a 106 ORtg, and he made 20% of his 3’s as a big man. As a sophomore
everything pointed to him becoming a breakout star. Instead his block rate has
fallen in half, his ORtg is down to 65, and that’s largely due to his eFG% of
23%. He just can’t make any jump shots right now.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The guard positions were supposed to be the weak spot for
San Diego St. And if you had told me that Jeremy Helmsley and Dakarai Allen
were going to play as well as they have, I would have expected San Diego St. to
be playing at a high level. I did not expect the forward spot to be such a
weakness.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
2) We knew Vanderbilt’s offense was going to be good, but
the big surprise early on is that they are also shutting teams down
defensively. Kevin Stallings has never had a Top 30 defense in the previous 14
seasons Ken Pomeroy maintained the stats. The next few weeks should tell us a
lot more about whether they have found the right formula on defense or just run
into some cold teams early.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
3) SI had Xavier at 21<sup>st</sup> in the preseason which
was higher than almost every expert. Our model saw a very deep team where even
players at the tail end of the rotation had a strong individual projection. And
Chris Mack is a quality coach who has taken Xavier to the NCAA tournament in 5
of the last 6 years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">It wasn’t that others hated Xavier. There seemed
to be a consensus that Xavier would finish in the Top 3 in the Big East. But
most people were skeptical of the team’s PG situation. Well guess what, even
though Edmond Sumner and Larry Austin have been turnover prone (a 26% and 32%
turnover rate respectively), the team’s overall depth has been able to overcome
that. Xavier is undefeated, has a number of Top 100 wins, and has been winning
convincingly. Point guard is probably the most important position on a college
basketball team, but this just goes to show that if you have quality players
throughout the lineup, having a great PG isn’t everything.</span></div>
Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-23266820929801874182015-04-02T06:00:00.000-04:002015-04-02T06:00:07.635-04:00Leaving RealGM.com<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As a quick FYI to my loyal readers, I am stepping away from
my weekly column at RealGM.com. I would not rule out the possibility that I
will return someday. But I needed to take a break from the 52-week grind, at
least for the time being. I want to re-focus myself and set up some new
challenges.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In the early 2000's I went to graduate school at the
University of Illinois. In 2005, my final year of graduate school, my wife and
I had enough season ticket priority to get tickets at courtside. Of course 2005
was a dream season. #1 ranked Wake Forest and Chris Paul visited Illinois
during the ACC/Big Ten challenge and Illinois crushed them. It was the
beginning of the Chris Paul vs Deron Williams’ rivalry, and I got to see it up
close. And then the wins kept coming. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Illinois lost just once in the regular season and my wife and I went to 5 of the 6 NCAA
tournament games on Illinois' run to the title game. The night after the title
game loss my wife and
I went to dinner and ran into Coach Bruce Weber who was at the restaurant picking up dinner for his family. My wife said, "Great job coach!" and Weber said
in an incredibly raspy voice, "Thank you!" I will never forget that
magical run. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In 2007, I started writing about college basketball. I
would watch a bunch of games on Saturday, think of a few statistical things I
wanted to do to entertain myself, and blog about it. I never thought I would
make any money writing about sports. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">But I owe a huge debt of gratitude to </span><a href="https://twitter.com/johngasaway"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">John Gasaway</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> for encouraging me at
Basketball Prospectus, and for continuing to drop my name when he moved to
ESPN. John and </span><a href="https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Ken Pomeroy</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> not
only invited me to be the third ever author in the Basketball Prospectus book,
they also inspired me by all the creative stuff they had written for so long.
There were others I should thank from this time period. People like </span><a href="https://twitter.com/ericangevine"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Eric Angevine</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">, and </span><a href="https://twitter.com/mikemillernbc"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Mike Miller</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> who was the voice of
NBC's College Basketball Talk in that day, made me believe that what I was
doing was interesting. And I cannot tell you how many times a link or a tweet
from CBS Sports’ </span><a href="https://twitter.com/mattnorlander"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Matt Norlander</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
came at exactly the right time to encourage me to do more.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In 2011, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/cr_reina"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Chris Reina</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
from RealGM.com offered me a job as a college basketball columnist. It was a
dream come true to earn money for something I loved. I covered 5 NCAA
tournaments for RealGM.com from 2011 to 2015. I wrote at least 200 weekly columns
in that time span, and probably closer to 250 columns overall. </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/news/analysis/author/133/Dan-Hanner"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Here is
my digital archive</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">My most famous pieces were probably my statistical ones,
like </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/229173/Star-Ratings-In-Depth"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">this
one on how star ratings predict player performance</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">. The follow-up, showing </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/229362/Diamonds-In-The-Rough"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">the
variation in performance by star rating</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> was also important, as was </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/227237/JUCO-Expectations"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">this
piece on JUCO recruits</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">. But there were lots of unique pieces I wrote in
this time period. Here is </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/232123/Year-Four-to-Six-The-Hot-Seat-Years"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">an
article I wrote about the timing when coaches lose their jobs</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">. But my
favorite pieces were probably my running diaries of March, </span><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/237003/Major-Conference-Tournaments-Day-1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">starting
with the first day of the major conference tournaments</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">, and wrapping up
with the national title game.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Other dreams came true in this time period. My preseason
prediction model was </span><a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9859613/projections-all-351-division-teams-college-basketball"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">featured
in ESPN the Magazine</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> and Sports Illustrated. </span><a href="http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/10/30/college-basketball-preview-teams-ranked"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">The
Sports Illustrated publication</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> really resonated with me, not only because
my name was on the cover, but because I still have a subscription to that
magazine dating back to when my late grandfather first ordered it for me as a
teenager. I owe </span><a href="https://twitter.com/lukewinn"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">Luke Winn</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> a huge
debt of gratitude for pitching my rankings to his editors. I knew when my work
was featured in SI that I had come full circle.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWmduKuSxGiuVxZiqK8T8XHmFJkQrb03ZHPdUUiZLtE2mD8a7myuXEC9ogr4DrMfsnWUDv5vrutlRKHvSCz5dT0JS065ZB4KvIhJd6Gh923OgQiYbhJ97ETjTnkFtF38IuAznZz0sckA/s1600/45COVv9wiscon_Promo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWmduKuSxGiuVxZiqK8T8XHmFJkQrb03ZHPdUUiZLtE2mD8a7myuXEC9ogr4DrMfsnWUDv5vrutlRKHvSCz5dT0JS065ZB4KvIhJd6Gh923OgQiYbhJ97ETjTnkFtF38IuAznZz0sckA/s1600/45COVv9wiscon_Promo.jpg" height="640" width="482" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But it also felt like an ending in some way. Writing something
for Sports Illustrated had essentially been my goal since I got started as a
college basketball writer. It occurred to me when that dream came true, that I
needed some new dreams.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I will forever be thankful to RealGM.com for not only giving
me the opportunity to get paid to do what I love, but also for challenging me.
Writing a weekly column takes discipline, and churning out content 52 weeks a
year inspired me to invest in college basketball at a whole new level. Things
change the more you invest in a sport. Today I look forward to events like the
Nike Hoop Summit (the most under-rated high school hoops event), I love the
Thanksgiving tournaments, and I care whether elite freshman live up to
expectations. Twenty years ago, I cared about none of those things.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I thought my material in 2014-15 became too much of a repeat
of 2013-14. One of the things that happens when you write a weekly column
throughout the whole year is that you tend to find a set of annual topics that
you can use to fill the space. And I was getting angry at myself for writing
the same story every year. A sense of creativity was a key part of why I was
doing this.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I also have a couple of larger college basketball projects that I
want to work on. But instead of investing in those long-term projects, I found
myself worried about my weekly column. And lately, I have started attending
fewer college basketball games. And that is when I knew it was time for a
change. When writing a weekly column was taking away from my ability to work on
some unique projects and causing me to attend fewer games, I knew I had to switch
things up. I love writing game stories. I love writing recaps. And I am sure I
will do those things again. But for this year at least, you will have to live
with a little less. I am not going to do a Way-Too-Early Top 25 or a Nike Hoop
Summit Recap.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I will have preseason rankings in the fall. And I am not done
writing about college basketball. If you continue to follow me on Twitter, you
will still see my latest work. But after 5 years covering the NCAA tournament
for RealGM.com, I need to step away for now.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
...Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-40646784246087472132011-11-04T20:01:00.003-04:002011-11-16T16:11:56.330-05:00ESPN the MagWith many thanks to John Gasaway, I am pleased to announce that my preseason rankings appear in <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/espn-the-magazine/">ESPN the Magazine’s Nov. 14th College Basketball Preview</a>. If you are not familiar with my preseason predictions model, here is an overview:<br /><br />The best predictor of future success is opponent adjusted margin-of-victory. This is the basis for Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor Rankings and Ken Pomeroy’s Tempo Free Rankings. But college rosters experience significant turnover between seasons. Fortunately, Dean Oliver developed statistics that estimate each player’s contribution to the offense and defense. These individual “tempo free” statistics can be used to estimate how each team’s offense and defense will change from one year to the next. Today I use this information to predict the 2011-12 season.<br /><br />The basic model incorporates several well-established basketball facts: First, experience matters. Teams that have more returning minutes (and possessions) tend to improve. Second, teams that return more efficient scorers (i.e. better shooting percentage, fewer turnovers) improve more than teams that return less efficient scorers. Third, the biggest leap in development is from a player’s freshman year to his sophomore year. Teams that give major minutes to freshmen tend to improve significantly the following season. Fourth, the loss of injured players (such as USC’s Jio Fontan), and the return of injured players (such as Purdue’s Robbie Hummel) has a predictable impact on team performance. Fifth, for incoming transfers, the performance with the previous team provides some information about the player’s future performance. Sixth, coaching ability impacts performance in a predictable manner. And finally, high school recruits can have a significant impact on a team’s performance. High school recruits ranked in the Top 10 have the biggest impact, but players ranked in the Top 100 are also important. This year I also account for the fact that historical team prestige impacts recruiting. (This is less important for BCS teams where the biggest factor is Top 10 and Top 100 recruits. But for smaller schools, historical team prestige is often the only factor we have to separate the quality of recruiting classes.) These factors are combined to produce a numeric ranking of teams for the upcoming college basketball season.<br /><br />ESPN voted for the Top 25 and only used my rankings to rank the other 319 teams. For the most part, I think ESPN got the top 25 right. But if you have questions about why my model loves or hates certain teams, send me a tweet @DanHanner.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-30882111679503123692011-09-12T00:37:00.004-04:002011-11-04T20:05:43.680-04:00Where You Can Find MeI write for RealGM.com. You can find my columns at <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa">http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa</a>. But if you want a direct link to my content, I actually have two archives on the website:<br /><br /><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/news/articles/author/133/Dan_Hanner">Here is the archive for articles</a><br /><br /><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/news/blogs/author/133/Dan_Hanner">Here is the archive for blog posts</a><br /><br />What is the difference between an article and a blog post? I have no idea. I just write them and send them in and they appear somewhere.<br /><br />Starting today, I am going to try to highlight my new content on Twitter. Find me @DanHanner. But if you want to know what you missed this summer, here is a quick summary.<br /><br />You probably do not want to read more about conference expansion, but I tried to be creative when I wrote about it. For the record, I am the rare person who enjoys it when conferences re-arrange themselves. I would like to see Texas become an independent in football and join C-USA in all other sports. <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/215523/How_The_Big_12_Looks_Like_A_Typical_Little_League_Team">Here I wrote something about Baylor that was a little bit mean</a>. I also wrote this where <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/215229/Conference_Expansion_And_Logic">I blame Texas for Texas A&M leaving</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/215185/A_Formula_For_Finding_Dark_Horse_Teams">This is a fun article where I try to pick dark horse teams</a> in 2011-2012.<br /><br />When writing the article for the Tar Heel tip-off, I started thinking about <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/214796/Is_Tony_Bennett_Still_Viewed_As_An_Elite_Coach">whether Tony Bennett was really an elite basketball coach</a>.<br /><br />Here is something I wrote about <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213821">whether college stats predict NBA draft position</a>. For the record, I have tried to adopt the philosophy of <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213716">embracing early entrants</a>. I am not sure I can always do it, but that’s my new philosophy.<br /><br />I went looking for players with <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/214987/Show_Me_Something">great stats but an under-achieving team</a>. It was harder than I thought.<br /><br /><a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/214826">This is the worst title for a post.</a> I would never click on any link that said that. But the article includes a number of tangents and I think it is one of the better pieces I have written. I seriously need to go back and come up with a better title.<br /><br />If you can read these tables (wow those things are hideously ugly), here is a <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/214096">nice analysis of Harrison Barnes and Jared Sullinger</a>.<br /><br />Some nice <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/214685">blurbs on the 2012 holiday tournaments</a>.<br /><br />Here are some things that seemed good at the time, but may be slightly out of date. I tried to average the coaching stats again this year. I thought these articles were a bit bland, because I have hit this topic before and I didn’t really learn anything new in the process. But if you haven’t seen it before, it is useful. <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/212983">Part 1</a>, <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213079">Part 2</a>, <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/213226">Part 3</a>, <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213327">Part 4</a>, <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213453">Part 5</a>, <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/213594">Part 6</a>. Also, my “predictions” model is being updated, and the predictions are all out-of-date. But the theme about the <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/article/214025">Big 12 being wide open this year</a> (found at the end of this column) is something you will be reading everywhere soon. In my opinion, nothing else is worth going back to read.<br /><br />And now this blog will go back to being dormant.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-17717538385776288202011-09-11T22:58:00.006-04:002011-09-11T23:08:12.398-04:00Welcome to TwitterI have finally caved.<br /><br />You can now follow me @DanHanner<br /><br />I have been reluctant to join Twitter for several reasons:<br /><br />1) I cannot seem to write anything that is less than 140 characters.<br /><br />2) Twitter is often about sharing thoughts instantly. I like to wait. Allow me to explain. Most live blogs are exceptionally boring. Bill Simmons' live blogs work because they are retro diaries. He jots down numerous thoughts during a game, and then edits those into a humorous summary later. I give credit to people who can think of witty things to say on a moments notice, but that is not me. When I think of random Twitter-length things to say, I jot them down in a notebook and try to turn them into a column. In fact, this is exactly how I generate my Monday Morning column during the college basketball season.<br /><br />3) When my wife and I went to Maui for our 10 year annivesary, we were walking on the Kaanapali beach boardwalk and there was this gorgeous sunset. We walked by one of the restaurants and I noticed a table of six people, all sitting with their heads down staring at their smart phones. That doesn't make any sense to me. And that's one of the reasons I'm afraid to go on Twitter. If you send me an @reply, there's a good chance I'm not going to check your message right away, and I hate to be the guy who never responds. But I am that guy.<br /><br />But a few things have swung me to the dark side:<br /><br />1) Every once in awhile I write something that I enjoy. Usually I hate everything I write, but when I write something good, I want to be able to shout about it to the world. But email is a poor way to do this. Twitter seems better.<br /><br />2) I am afraid Ballin is a Habit is going to do another one of those, "People to Read" features and I'm going to be the only one without a Twitter account.<br /><br />3) People tell me it is a better way to communicate. I'm skeptical, but why not try?<br /><br />But I am warning you in advance: I am not going to check it every day, and I would like to apologize in advance for anything stupid that I do.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-89399375206184243062011-09-01T21:48:00.001-04:002012-04-30T01:02:38.596-04:00MiscUploading an image for a RealGM.com post.<br />
I will explain on Twitter later.<br />
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Is the problem that I was supposed to include some text between the graphs?</div>
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<img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5683585586268843090" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmHwvPYJK2pgST6iTCO2eE644wRnEMpda3Q60vs8-BnyatgsqejZRrP_kI0uhwFEQGI5t81jDA9biEQZnKSjLxPUEl0UZh-dbOJUmOhfpfh4Md-LgvrAq-HEwAR6p5wcQ_s5ublBmRWaA/s400/image001.png" style="display: block; height: 291px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" />Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-24413868577000757402011-04-03T19:54:00.003-04:002014-05-26T20:35:26.056-04:00For Monday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span id="goog_1508452566"></span><span id="goog_1508452567"></span>First</div>
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Three<br />
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Older</div>
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Space Here</div>
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Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-30052963093988448272011-02-14T11:10:00.011-05:002011-07-22T16:40:37.574-04:00A New HomeAs YABB is approaching its four-year anniversary, the time has come to make a change. My content will now be appearing on a website called RealGM.com. If your interests are only college basketball, you may not have heard of these folks before. But RealGM has been covering the pro sports since 2000 with a focus on analytics and player movement.<br /><br />Recently they have decided to expand their NCAA coverage, and they have asked me to join them. The type of material that I write is not going to change, but my internet home can now be found at <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa">http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa</a><br /><br />I realize that there is a crowded landscape of sports coverage on the internet. You have a lot of choices about who to read and when to link to content. But I want to emphasize that I am committed to providing the best original and unique content that I can develop.<br /><br />In February on RealGM.com, I contrasted how Roy Williams and Bo Ryan utilize their players. I looked at the 4th through 6th year head coaches (the ones whose job is normally on the line). I reviewed of this year’s surprises and flops, using my tempo free predictions to identify who “broke out” and who “broke down” this season. In a column staple, I provided the latest injury splits. And of course, I talked about the games.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Why Partner with RealGM.com?</span></strong><br /><br />I am joining RealGM.com because they sought me out and asked me to join. But as a data person, I was also attracted to the chance to work with new databases and features. The goal is not to replace your favorite stats. You should still get your Tuesday Truths from John Gasaway and your tempo free euphoria from Ken Pomeroy. But I want to emphasize that there are other interesting ways to think about teams and players. RealGM.com has a number of databases that I think will make for an exciting opportunity.<br /><br />The one thing I fell in love with immediately is a database that links players by high school. Here is my ridiculous insider example of how to use this. Suppose you plan to interview Indiana’s Victor Oladipo and want to strike up a conversation. Why not <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/highschool/teams/254/DeMatha_Catholic_High_School_(MD)/">ask him about his high school</a> and the players who recently played on the team? On the list you will quickly see some familiar names. Why not ask him if he ever played with fellow DeMatha graduate Austin Freeman? Was Austin that impressive in high school? Even if you don’t plan on meeting one of the players, I think these are fun to explore. People always talk about all the graduates to come out of <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/highschool/teams/2/Oak_Hill_Academy_(VA)/">Oak Hill Academy</a>. But when I sorted by graduation year, I recognized fewer of these players than I expected.<br /><br />One word of caution: The NCAA section is currently under construction, with a few bugs and kinks preventing them from signing off completely on the content. (See the “Beta” moniker in the upper left hand corner.) But as those last kinks are worked out, I think you will find features, like the <a href="http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Big_Ten_Conference/2/Illinois/3/Depth_Charts">last 5 games depth charts</a>, to be an extremely useful resource.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Final Notes<br /></span></strong><br />Please keep YABB in memory. As you may know, I am very reluctant to go on twitter. That may eventually change, but I want to continue to use this space to highlight when my work appears elsewhere on the web.<br /><br />And as I make the transition to a new internet home, I would sincerely like to thank all the people that have read my content and linked to YABB over the last four years. Every time I see a link it gives me all the more motivation to work a little harder to do something new and unique. And thank you for all your kind words and support over the years.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br />Dan Hanner<br /><a href="mailto:DLHanner@gmail.com">DLHanner@gmail.com</a>Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-19787649619457719772011-02-10T23:28:00.011-05:002011-02-10T23:55:52.198-05:00Litmus TestHere is how you know if you are an unmitigated “homer”. Has your favorite team ever been over-seeded in the NCAA tournament? Have you ever looked at the bracket and seen a 4 seed next to your team and thought “that seems a little generous.” If that answer is no, you probably see your team through rose-colored glasses.<br /><br />Note: This litmus test does not work if you are a Northwestern fan.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">What is the line between fan and analyst?<br /></span></strong><br />One of the things that constantly baffles me is the little games people play about admitting their affiliations. Jay Bilas and Kirk Herbstreit are two of the most knowledgeable, articulate, and effective commentators in the business. But if one of their colleagues asks them if they might be exerting a little “Duke” or “Ohio St.” love, you can practically feel the fingernails scratching on the chalkboard. I much prefer Clark Kellogg’s style. If someone mentions that Ohio St. is his alma mater, he says he is happy to see the Buckeyes do well. And then he moves on. There is nothing wrong with being human. The may be “no cheering in the press box”, but being an alum does not prevent someone from being a successful analyst.<br /><br />In 2011, the myth has long been debunked that someone cannot provide passion and insight at the same time. Bill Simmons is the most famous “fan” commentator of all time, and he is also one of the most insightful NBA writers on the planet. Lou Holtz may be the target of constant ribbing on the College Football post game show because of his Notre Dame ties, but he still knows a thing or two about football. Doug Gottlieb may have once played for Oklahoma St., but that does not prevent him from stating the biting truth.<br /><br />And truthfully, Joe Posnanski might be the best at the business at using his past affiliations appropriately. He includes details from his personal past in stories without making it seem disruptive. When Posnanski wrote about the Cavs recent losing streak, he so subtly mentioned the terrible Cavs teams of his youth that you forget he might still care for the team.*<br /><br />No, the worry about analysts should not be whether or not they are alumni or fans. The worry should be whether their opinions are well-founded. Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune is a long-time newspaper reporter. He has covered Twin Cities sports teams for over 50 years and a statue of him was even built in front of the Target Center. No one questions his success. But many people question his unrelenting praise. No matter what happens at a Minnesota sporting event, the players never did wrong. The loss can always be blamed on an injury or bad luck. And no Gopher or Viking coach has ever been fired for cause. Many believe that Hartman praises individual targets to retain access. Whether this is true or not, trading access for one-sided commentary does no one justice.<br /><br />But caring about a team, or articulating the passion of the game is not a crime. From the joy of a fanbase when Baylor beat Oklahoma for the first time in 30 games last January, or the resigned disgust as Clemson lost for the 54th time at Chapel Hill, passion is a large part of the equation. As we enter the pulse-pounding portion of the season, the games mean something to everyone. To the elite teams, the goal is to get a high seed to reward a season of hard work. For the bubble teams, the goal is one more quality win to impress the selection committee. And for the bad teams, the goal is to win one more time for the seniors. In college basketball every game counts, and communicating that truth should never get lost.<br /><br />So certainly I condemn the inappropriate praise and unsubstantiated propaganda. But if the insights are real, and the content is true, I don’t care if the analyst is a fan or not.<br /><br />*An honorary Posnanski star note. Have you seen his SI photo that appears in the magazine - the man with the cowboy hat and hand extended? That is one amusing photo.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-86922359924488862392011-02-07T23:11:00.004-05:002011-02-07T23:41:02.571-05:00Will Bruce Pearl’s return to the sideline make a difference for Tennessee?<a href="http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/26283066">Eric Angevine</a> emailed me tonight with this very interesting question. Here was my response:<br /><br />First, let me emphasize the value of basketball coaches relative to the other sports. According to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2010/05/21/phil-jackson-belichick-mike-shanahan-business-sports-coaches.html">Forbes</a> <a href="http://www.ehow.com/about_7562836_average-salary-pro-sports-coach.html">magazine</a> NBA head coaches make slightly more than NFL head coaches, and both make significantly more than MLB head coaches. There may be numerous reasons NBA coaches earn more. But a reasonable inference is that incrementally, basketball coaches can make a significant difference to winning. Phil Jackson isn’t earning $10 million a year because he is a lucky rabbit’s foot. He is earning $10 million a year because he understands all the little details of what it takes to win. From the X’s and O’s, to in-game adjustments, to how to motivate his players over the long grind, Jackson has the formula down to a science. Or a zen art.<br /><br />The lesson for college basketball is that coaching is a lot more than simply deciding whether to bring the walk-ons into the game at the 2 minute mark or the 1 minute mark in a blowout. Coaches can make a significant difference to whether a team is ahead when the final buzzer sounds.<br /><br />And Bruce Pearl is not just another coach. I currently rank Bruce Pearl as the 30th best coach in terms of adjusted efficiency margin from 2002-2011, (which includes his successful final 3 seasons at UW-Milwaukee.) That might not seem phenomenal, but I don’t think the margin-of-victory numbers really do Pearl justice. Tennessee plays a very long rotation which tends to make some games closer than they should be. But in crunch time, Bruce Pearl always has the best lineup on the floor. And over the last seven years, <a href="http://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/yet-another-set-of-coaching-numbers.html">no BCS coach has out-performed his efficiency margin more than Pearl</a>. Ken Pomeroy refers to this as luck. Bruce Pearl’s teams have been consistently lucky. And there is certainly an element of winning close games that is good fortune. (Florida’s Erving Walker hit one of the biggest shots of the year to force a second overtime against Georgia, but I’d be shocked if he could repeat it.) But there’s also something to the cliché that you make your own luck.<br /><br />But none of this really gets to the key question. Will Bruce Pearl make a difference when he returns to the sideline this year? The difficulty is that we know Pearl is a good coach, but we don’t know what makes him a good coach. Is it his recruiting? Is it his unique drills in practice? Is it his style of offense? Is it his pressure defense? If it is those things, then his return to the sideline should have little impact on Tennessee.<br /><br />But what if Bruce Pearl’s teams win for other reasons? Is it his ability to know when to apply pressure defense? Is it his calling of set-plays? Is it his ability to draw up plays on the clipboard? Is it his half-game adjustments? Is it his key substitutions? Is it his ability to motivate players in the locker-room?<br /><br />Unfortunately, when it comes to the data, we don’t have a lot of variation to sort out these factors. Coaches don’t usually leave their team in the middle of the season. I think there is some anecdotal evidence that coaching absences hurt a team. Connecticut struggled at times when Jim Calhoun was missing because of health issues. (And when Louisville’s defense was historically bad last year, I wondered how much of that was because Pitino was mentally checked out with the Karen Sypher situation.)<br /><br />Perhaps most relevant this season, Rick Majerus somehow cut his leg during the Bowling Green game and missed the next three games with a leg infection. St. Louis lost all three games without Majerus on the sideline. Based on the quality of opponents, the Sagarin Predictor method says St. Louis should have lost those three games by a total of 27 points. But St. Louis was defeated by 36 points in those 3 games, or about 3 points more per game than we should have expected.<br /><br />Was Rick Majerus really worth 3 points a game? That number seems a little high. Although I cannot find the citation online, I think the top coaches tend to be worth about 2 points in the Vegas lines.<br /><br />Will Bruce Pearl make that big a difference when he returns to the sideline? I’d assume he is worth a little less than a point a game. But over the course of the season, when lots of games come down to the wire, you never know when that extra something will be the difference between winning and losing. And in an SEC East, where no team is under .500, every win means a lot.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Unintentional Comedy</span></strong><br /><br />Note to self: Learn how to take screen-shots. If anyone can send me a screenshot or youtube link of Stacey and Ray Paine, (10:41 to go in the Kansas - Missouri game), this item will be much more amusing.<br /><br /><a href="mailto:DLHanner@gmail.com">DLHanner@gmail.com</a><br /><br />But the Paines are not the subject of this header. After a commercial break, we had this exchange.<br /><br />Brent Musberger, "I can't believe, especially given that his dad is in the basketball business, that Larry Drew would just walk out on North Carolina in the middle of the season. To walk out on a team like that, I'm surprised the young man would act that way."<br /><br />Bob Knight - No Response<br /><br />Hmm, recalling the Texas Tech situation? You just cannot make this stuff up.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-52570031608488320182011-02-07T00:02:00.000-05:002011-02-09T23:46:43.915-05:00Have new coaches made a difference?What can Ken Pomeroy’s Efficiency Margin data tell us about how new coaches have done? Have they turned their programs around?<br /><br />Scroll down for the tables, but first some comments:<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Big Improvements<br /></span></strong><br />-In two years, John Calipari’s average efficiency margin has clearly outshined that of former Kentucky head coach Billy Gillispie. But Calipari has even exceeded the average efficiency margin of Tubby Smith’s Kentucky teams from 2003 to 2007. I think that is pretty amazing given the reliance on freshman over the last two years. Like most people, I’m puzzled by the recent close losses, but I think there is no doubt that Kentucky hit a home run when it hired Calipari.<br /><br />-I hope people are not overlooking the job Mike Rice Jr. has done at Rutgers this year. Sometimes his expressions on the sideline seem overzealous, but he is holding his players accountable and delivering results. I thought his most impressive result of the season was his three point home loss to Pittsburgh, but his team has played well in close losses at St. John’s and at Notre Dame since that game. Interestingly, Fred Hill is starting to look like a negative blip for Rutgers, as Gary Waters at least had Rutgers fielding passable teams from 2003 to 2006.<br /><br />-Is it fair to question whether Jeff Bzdelik is a good coach at this point? Colorado has improved since he left, and Wake Forest has gotten much worse since he arrived. Of course there are extenuating circumstances. Colorado is a veteran team, Wake Forest lost a ton of talent and has started over with a bunch of freshman. But the decision to remove Dino Gaudio is looking more and more puzzling.<br /><br />-St. John’s coach Mike Jarvis was fired mid-season in 2003-04, and interim coach Kevin Clark could not keep the recruits. This meant Norm Roberts inherited a disaster. Meanwhile, Steve Lavin has started with a group of experienced seniors and been in much better position to succeed immediately. That’s the story most people tell to be kind to Norm Roberts. But I also think it is also fair to credit Lavin with getting his senior group to play at a higher level. I think Lavin did the right thing in increasing St. John’s strength-of-schedule. St. John’s is not a dominant enough group to win every day. But by playing enough quality teams, they’ve put together enough nice wins to look like an NCAA team at this point.<br /><br />-No one is surprised to see Mike Montgomery’s teams playing at such a high level once again. The man who once dominated the Pac-10 at Stanford has California playing winning basketball again. (Did anyone see highlights of Saturday’s 3OT thriller against Arizona? The game was not on ESPN3, or any of the three Fox Regional channels on my Verizon Fios box. Where was it? On the Sportscenter U program on ESPNU, they only showed the box score. Did this game really happen?)<br /><br />-I cannot give enough love to Fran McCaffery for bringing some up-tempo basketball back to Iowa. But he also has his team playing better basketball. They won at Indiana this weekend, something Illinois and Minnesota could not do.<br /><br />-I’m surprised Mark Fox did not get a job offer for a BCS gig sooner. And Nevada has taken an epic fall since he left.<br /><br />-Is Buzz Williams a better coach than Tom Crean? His teams have had better efficiency margins than Crean’s did. And this data includes Crean’s team with Dwayne Wade. Until Williams gets to a Final Four, I think the answer is no. But I will say this: Buzz Williams' teams almost never get blown out.<br /><br />-I’m not quite in agreement that Iowa St. has played well this year. They beat Creighton early in the year before Gregory Echenique was eligible, beat an Iowa squad that was still learning to play for Fran McCaffery, and currently sit 1-8 in the Big 12. Obviously the close losses to Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. Nebraska, and particularly Kansas mean this team is competitive. But until they start winning some Big 12 games, it is hard to proclaim this a success story yet. Realistically, the true evaluation of Fred Hoiberg will come next year when all those transfers become eligible.<br /><br />Notes on the table:<br /><br />EM is the average efficiency margin over the coach’s tenure.<br />Impact is the difference in EM between the current coach and the previous non-interim head coach.<br /><br />Avg adj off is the average adjusted offense over the coach’s tenure.<br />Avg adj def is the average adjusted defense over the coach’s tenure.<br /><br />Scroll to the right to see the average performance of the former coaches. Ken Pomeroy only tabulates data back to 2003, so there is no coaching data before the 2002-2003 season.<br /><br /><iframe height="350" src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ag5UAvHDU474dHBWWWR4MExrV1BJX0RvWEhjYk1QV1E&hl=en&output=html&widget=true" frameborder="0" width="800"></iframe><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Not a Good Start<br /></span></strong><br />-Wake Forest suffered a huge talent drain, and Indiana suffered an epic talent drain, but those teams are still performing substantially below historical expectations.<br /><br />-I actually thought that when Oliver Purnell took over at DePaul, he could get the team to win some Big East games on hard work alone. But no team in a BCS league has fewer natural shooters. At 28.2% from 3 point range, DePaul shoots too poorly to run an effective offense.<br /><br />-At least Auburn has Earnest Ross who can get hot and make a game fun once in a while. (See OT loss to Georgia, where Ross scored 30 points.)<br /><br />-I really like LSU newcomer Andre Stringer, but LSU needed more than one player to turn around last year’s debacle. Two years of horrific basketball may have shortened Trent Johnson’s clock.<br /><br />-Also, shouldn’t Trent Johnson and Tony Bennett get some blame for departing along with their seniors and leaving rebuilding projects at Stanford and Washington St.?<br /><br />-I think Sean Miller is doing a fantastic job at Arizona, but it is worth noting that he has a long way to go to duplicate Lute Olson’s level of success. I think he’ll eventually get there, but it would help if the rest of the Pac-10 was not so down. Even when Arizona wins Pac-10 games, it has not improved their efficiency margin very much.<br /><br />-I don’t think anyone thinks the Pat Knight experiment is working.<br /><br /><iframe height="425" src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ag5UAvHDU474dGhtekRxOVRydlZCRFNVZFlLOVlqb0E&hl=en&output=html&widget=true" frameborder="0" width="800"></iframe><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Notable Non-BCS Impacts<br /></span></strong><br />It might seem that non-BCS turnaround projects would be a great place to find prospective BCS coaches. And while that’s true, coaches in the CAA and similar places only tend to get credit when they finish the job. Turning a team from a 1-15 doormat to an 8-8 competitive team is a nice accomplishment, but it usually will not get you hired. You usually have to make it to the NCAA tournament, and maybe even win a game. As such, I am not going to present the whole table for non-BCS turnarounds, but here are some highlights:<br /><br />- James Madison was a perennial CAA cellar-dweller under Dean Keener, and Matt Brady currently has the team at 7-6 in the conference, the second winning mark in the last 3 years. He probably needs to do more to earn a BCS job, but if James Madison makes the tournament in a couple of years, he will definitely be a top candidate. (For those of you tripping over the name, this is not former LSU coach John Brady who now coaches at Arkansas St.) Matt Brady also coached at Marist in the MAAC which has really struggled since he left.<br /><br />-With the WAC falling out of national relevance, Don Verlin probably won’t get much credit at Idaho. But he took over a team that was usually the worst in the WAC, and has them playing .500 ball.<br /><br />-North Florida had a pair of 3-26 seasons under its previous coach which is making Matthew Driscoll look like a miracle worker for finishing near .500 in the A-Sun.<br /><br />-Finally, the UCF story has been ruined by a terrible performance in conference play this year. Donnie Jones looked like a great prospect for a BCS job in December, but not right now.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-37067390014884886402011-02-05T21:47:00.006-05:002011-02-05T22:09:20.322-05:00That "game" may be on Sunday, but I live for SaturdayI think the high point of the day came around 5:30pm ET on Saturday. Four games came down to the wire simultaneously:<br /><br />1) Leading by only one point at LSU with a minute to go, Mississippi St. needed some stops. And the much-maligned pair of Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost came through for Mississippi St. First, Sidney blocked a shot in the lane. Then on the next possession, Bost stripped the ball allowing time to expire. Normally you expect star players to win the game on the offensive end, but today Mississippi St.’s stars won it on the defensive end.<br /><br />2) Trailing by one point while hosting Iowa, Indiana called time out. Then the Hoosiers wasted about 15 seconds without doing anything which caused a frustrated Tom Crean to call time out again. After this time out, Indiana’s Verdell Jones took a tough pull-up in the lane, and Victor Oladipo missed a tip-in that would have won the game at the buzzer. Iowa held on.<br /><br />3) Generally, FG droughts are a dumb statistic. If a team is still scoring at the FT line, the fact that they do not make any FGs from the floor is irrelevant. But at a certain length of time, FG droughts do become an interesting stat. And Memphis went 11:47 in the second half vs Gonzaga without making a bucket from the floor. At a certain point Gonzaga just realized that Memphis could not make jumpers and started packing 4 or 5 players in the paint. The strategy almost worked, but a couple of late baskets, most notably Antonio Barton’s game-winner, were the difference. Barton’s game-winning shot was all the more amazing because it was a complete brick. It hit the back of the rim, but instead of the normal ricochet out of the basket area, the ball died, and fell into the hoop. Hey, sometimes when you go 11:47 without a made basket, you catch a break.<br /><br />4) Meanwhile, on the tree-floor at Oregon, Washington suffered its 3rd straight loss. Despite a relentless effort by Isaiah Thomas to get the ball to the basket and extend the game, Oregon made enough free throws to hang on. Washington was rated 6th in the Pomeroy ratings last week, but 2 losses to Oregon schools have caused their rating to plummet. Credit should go to Oregon's Joevan Catron for a number of key baskets that put the game away late.<br /><br />Speaking of Washington, things have not gone that well for the Maui invitational field lately. Washington has lost 3 in a row. Connecticut barely won at Seton Hall tonight and Kemba Walker is falling out of the national POY race. Ignoring Saturday night’s game (which is in progress), Kentucky was only 4-3 in SEC play. And Michigan St. is struggling more than any of these teams. You have to believe all four coaches can get their teams back on track, but while these Maui particpants once looked like Final Four contenders, none would be a clear Final Four pick right now.<br /><br />Other thoughts in my head:<br /><br />-Thursday night my wife noted the following: Doesn’t Abromitis sound like some sort of medical condition. As in:<br /><br />“Did you know that kid has been playing with Abromitis all year?”<br />“Wow, that can really be painful. I’m glad to see he’s toughing it out.”<br /><br />-When USF plays at the St. Pete Forum in Tampa, why don’t they paint the floor green? A lot of these Big East schools have alternate arenas, but most of them make some effort to make it seem like a home floor. Poor Stan Heath, this is what he is working with.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Georgetown - Providence</span></strong><br /><br />I have not had much to say about Georgetown this year. Part of that is because this is such a veteran team, that there are not a lot of NEW observations to be made. But I still remember how upset Doug Gottlieb got when the Hoyas "got lucky" and won a ton of close games with Jesse Sapp, Jonathan Wallace, and Roy Hibbert. And I wonder if Doug Gottlieb is going to freak out when he sees the ending of the Georgetown-Providence game today. Chris Wright made an amazing play to steal the ball, but it looks an awful lot like he calls time out despite the fact that Georgetown did not have any timeouts left. The officials didn’t grant it, so it was not a technical foul. But if I was a Providence fan, I would have definitely wanted two free throws in that situation.<br /><br />Georgetown continues to struggle in games where a single player gets hot. I think of Stephen Curry in the tournament a few years ago, Armon Bassett in the tournament last year, and even Dominique Jones at the Verizon Center not that long ago. Today Marshon Brooks scored 43 points. I’ve always thought it was because Georgetown did not have a single lock-down defensive stopper. But now I wonder if it might be a flaw in John Thompson’s coaching. He said after the game that when a player is having a career day, he tells the players to focus on shutting off the other players. He figures it is rare that one player can win a game single-handedly. Over the long haul, I think that’s right. But in the NCAA tournament, I’m not sure I would want to risk it. I’d love to see someone (Jerrelle Benimon perhaps?) take it upon himself to become a lock-down defender for this team.<br /><br />Also, even though he did not play well today, I have to commend Hollis Thompson for hanging tough and realizing what a spark he can be off the bench. His three pointer against Louisville on Monday was the deciding factor, and you need players who are willing to put the team first. After Larry Drew transferred this week in response to his new role as a bench player, I am reminded what a mature decision it is for Hollis to accept a role coming off the bench. As we saw against Louisville, just because he does not start, that does not mean Thompson will not be on the floor in crunch time.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Northwestern-Illinois<br /></span></strong><br />The Illinois vs Northwestern game was not on TV in my area, but thanks to the miracle known as a “Slingbox”, I was able to watch the game. A few notes:<br /><br />-CBS claimed this was the first time CBS televised a game at Northwestern. Is that really possible?<br /><br />-CBS kept talking about how long a streak it had been since Northwestern had defeated a ranked team. But their last win over a ranked team came in 2010. I’m not saying it is a meaningless streak, but we’re not talking about DePaul here.<br /><br />-Northwestern won despite Luka Mirkovic being called for an unintentional punch to the face. Northwestern won despite a bad-offensive goaltending call wiping out a basket.<br /><br />-Davide Curletti’s block of Mike Tisdale’s shot in the first half was one of those plays that was quite symbolic of Tisdale’s career. For all the big shots he has made, smaller defenders can still easily guard the Illini’s 7 foot center. Bruce Weber responded by putting Meyers Leonard in the game and Leonard proceeded to get a monster wrap-around dunk. You sometimes wonder if the Illinois freshman should be playing more because the seniors continue to fail in key situations. Mike Tisdale seemingly can only score on the pick-and-roll, and when teams play zone he is a non-factor. Mike Davis made some key plays in this game, but he also missed a ton of two point jumpers. Davis, more than anyone, needs to realize the value of drawing contact inside. And Demetri McCamey was once again a non-factor for the first 35 minutes of the game.<br /><br />Last week I mentioned that Illinois had been unlucky for 7 years in a row, and David Hess <a href="http://audacityofhoops.blogspot.com/2011/02/free-throws-and-luck.html">recently did a little analysis of what impacts luck</a>. If you have not read it, please check it out.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">NCAA Odds<br /></span></strong><br />I really hate the focus on seeding and the bubble this time of year because there are so many games left to play. If teams win, things tend to take care of themselves.<br /><br />But Northwestern’s resume has to be mentioned. Even with this win, Northwestern is just <a href="http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/nitty">1-8 vs the RPI top 50, and 2-8 vs the RPI top 100</a>. As much as I’d like to see Northwestern make a surprise run at the NCAA tournament, if I’m going to cheer for a surprise Big Ten team at this point, it has to be Penn St.<br /><br />I’ve also started to believe that Alabama is a solid team this year based on their improving Pomeroy rating and great conference record, but we cannot overlook how terrible the SEC West is this year. Alabama is just 2-4 against the RPI top 100 (beating Kentucky and Tennessee.) With the weakness of the SEC West, Saturday Night’s OT win at Tennessee was enormous for the Crimson tide.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-37152988559594371812011-02-03T00:02:00.001-05:002011-02-03T00:20:01.622-05:0049-47 in the ACC and the Unintended Consequence of the New Injury Sub RuleI love Tony Bennett in the ACC. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to watch Big Ten teams play Wisconsin or Penn St., and I love seeing Bennett bring that painful slow-paced magic to the ACC. Clemson scored 13 in the first half of this game. Virginia had 13 through the first 19 minutes of the second half. Ouch.<br /><br />The end of this game actually had a very interesting sequence. Virginia’s Mustapha Farrakhan was 6 of 6 from the free throw line, and showed no signs that he would miss. But Clemson hit him in the gut on a late game foul which caused Farrakhan to leave the game. The unfortunate thing was that the new “replacement player” rule came into effect. Instead of Virginia choosing a replacement free throw shooter, Clemson got to choose a player, and Clemson chose Assane Sene who was shooting 56% on the year. So apparently the new best strategy when you can’t get the ball out of a good free throw shooters hands might be to innocently hit them below the belt.<br /><br />In some sense, the NCAA rule is a catch 22. The old rule rewarded teams for faking an injury. The new rule rewards teams for injuring a good player and getting him out of the game. The good news is that it is usually hard to intentionally injure a player without getting a flagrant or technical foul, so the new rule is probably the right rule. But late in the Virginia – Clemson game, it certainly did not seem that way.<br /><br />But despite this 49-47 drama, the real fun of the night was elsewhere:<br /><br />With 10 seconds left, and trailing #6 San Diego St. by 2 points, Colorado St.’s Travis Franklin got the ball in the lane and converted a bucket to tie. Then, without calling timeout, San Diego St.’s DJ Gay took the ball the length of the floor and hit a pull-up jumper for the game winner.<br /><br />Not to be outdone, Rutger’s Robert Lumpkins hit a pair of threes to pull Rutgers close to St. John’s in the final seconds. Then coming off a beautiful screen, Lumpkins hit a wide open three to tie the game with 20 seconds left. St. John’s ran some clock and called timeout, and then Justin Browlee, who injured his finger earlier this week, caught the ball in the lane and made the game-winning basket. Four fantastic end-game shots in a five minute span. This is why I watch.<br /><br />A few other notes on these games:<br />CBS CS was airing the SDSU-CSU game, and the post-game interview with Steve Fisher was one of the longest post-game interviews I have heard in some time. Um, isn’t there suppose to be a limit of 3 questions or something?<br /><br />Obviously the Duke win was more important, but in a lot of ways, this game was vital to St. John’s NCAA chances. Their schedule was front-loaded with a ton of Top 25 opponents, but if St. John’s does not beat some of the lower level Big East teams down the stretch, everything they have done so far will be meaningless. And Mike Rice’s Rutgers team is no longer a push-over. I thought Rice was going a little crazy when he was taking players out one-at-a-time for committing stupid turnovers in the second half. But Rice has Rutgers believing they can compete. Lumpkins, a transfer from New Mexico St., still has hideous three point shooting numbers on the year, but he is on fire right now. He also hit some big shots late in the loss to Pittsburgh.<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other games:<br /><br /></span></strong>-Missouri had another frantic comeback at Oklahoma St. Almost all Missouri games seem more entertaining when they are behind. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they could not finish the comeback, and they are now winless on the road in the Big 12.<br /><br />-Mason Plumlee’s dunk with 8 minutes to go when Maryland had cut the lead to 5 was one of those critical, rally interrupting plays. I keep seeing flashes of brilliance out of Plumlee, and that’s why I enjoy watching him despite his horrific turnover rate and worst efficiency rating in the Duke rotation. I assume Mike Krzyzewski puts up with his turnovers because of his great rebounding numbers.<br /><br />-I am becoming a huge fan of Villanova’s Mouphtaou Yarou. When he is in the ball-game, Villanova is just a different team defensively. 7 footers can do that. Marquette now sits as the 11th place Big East bubble team. This is probably a good time to take the trip down to USF, right?<br /><br />-On a night when C-USA leading UAB and Memphis both lost at home, UTEP’s game was postponed. Sometimes the best thing your team can do is not play. If the game is made up tomorrow and UTEP loses, there would be 6 teams in first place with 3 losses. (Southern Miss at 6-3 would technically have a half game lead.)<br /><br />-Thanks to VCU’s loss, George Mason is now tied for first in the CAA.<br /><br />-Duquesne crushed George Washington. The margin-of-victory numbers are going to continue to love this team. And thanks to Xavier’s surprise loss at Charlotte, Duquesne now sits alone in first place in the A10.<br /><br />-The bottom of the Big Ten is making the middle of the Big Ten look very incompetent. Here are my thoughts on Indiana’s three point win over Minnesota:<br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Hoosier Havoc Part 2<br /></span></strong><br />Sports do not always follow the script. I had a couple of themes in my head prior to the Minnesota – Indiana game.<br /><br />The first theme was going to be how Indiana is a bad match-up for Minnesota. The Hoosiers foul at a higher rate than any team in a BCS conference, and Minnesota is not particularly adept at the charity stripe.<br /><br />The second story was going to be how Minnesota was going to struggle with ball-handling now that Al Nolen is out. While Michigan and Northwestern, by virtue of their passive defensive, were not going to expose Minnesota’s ball-handling, Indiana surely was going to attack this weakness.<br /><br />Of course neither storyline really came to pass. Minnesota struggled with ball-handling early, and Indiana’s ball-pressure prevented Minnesota from passing the ball inside. But Minnesota’s turnover rate for the game was not excessive. And the Gophers actually forced a number of Hoosier turnovers during a late comeback.<br /><br />As for the free throws, Minnesota made only 11 of 22, and Blake Hoffarber surprisingly missed two technical free throws, but free throws hardly seemed like the story of the day either.<br /><br />The story of the day was Indiana’s tenacity on the offensive boards. Tom Pritchard scored what will be his career highlight dunk in the first half on a run-the-lane, sky-in-the air, and thunder-home the offensive rebound dunk. And despite the fact that Minnesota did grab a slightly higher percentage of offensive boards 41% to 36%, Indiana’s competitiveness in this category was the difference in the game. Amazingly the Hoosiers two big wins, against Illinois and Minnesota, came in games when Indiana did not shoot the ball incredibly well. But they made enough of the other plays to hang on for victory.<br /><br />I honestly cannot decide whether I respect Tom Crean a lot as a coach or dislike him. On the one hand, no coach in the country (outside perhaps former assistant Buzz Williams), is better at teaching great post defense to smaller players. (Note to Bill Carmody, just because the other team is bigger, does not mean they have to dominate the paint.) But I also question the length of the rebuilding process in year three at Indiana. Maybe John Calipari sets the bar too high, but you might expect a storied program to be winning some game on talent, not just grit.<br /><br />I also tend to dislike many of the defensive techniques Tom Crean’s players use. When Daniel Moore pulled Blake Hoffarber out of bounds by hooking his elbow, that was just an unnecessary play. There was also the play where one of the Indiana players kicked Trevor Mbakwe’s foot out from underneath him. After the Derek Elston’s trip at Northwestern earlier this year, I expected Tom Crean to suspend him and try to clean up the program. Instead, I’m starting to believe he teaches his players to push the boundaries. The fact that they lead the nation in fouling leads me to believe they do.<br /><br />Has Tom Crean saved his job with a nice mid-season streak of games? Who knows? Let’s see how the team finishes the season.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-7943329045382660372011-02-02T00:02:00.000-05:002011-02-09T23:48:03.792-05:00Kentucky is not a terrible road team, Harrison Barnes is getting betterAfter watching Kentucky fall on the road for the 3rd time in SEC play, I’m sure a lot of people are going to say that Kentucky is a terrible road team this year. And certainly, the splits bear that out to some degree. Here is Kentucky’s Adjusted Offense and Defense, replicating the Pomeroy formula, but NOT adjusting for venue:<br /><br />Home<br />Adj Off: 120.3<br />Adj Def: 84.3<br /><br />Neutral<br />Adj Off: 116.1<br />Adj Def: 85.6<br /><br />Away<br />Adj Off: 114.0<br />Adj Def: 94.1<br /><br />Kentucky’s defense has been a little bit worse on the road, but Kentucky’s splits are very similar to the average D1 team. In fact, when I adjust for venue, using Pomeroy's traditional home/road weights, the road/home difference is not that big, especially regarding the offense:<br /><br />Home<br />Adj Off: 118.6<br />Adj Def: 85.5<br /><br />Neutral<br />Adj Off: 116.1<br />Adj Def: 85.6<br /><br />Away<br />Adj Off: 115.6<br />Adj Def: 92.8<br /><br />The real problem for Kentucky is that the teams they have played on the road in the SEC are not as bad as people think. Georgia has at least three or four of the top players in the SEC, depending on your metric. Alabama, much like Florida St., is an incredible defensive team that can beat anyone any time. And Ole Miss was a pre-season favorite to contend for the SEC West title. Ole Miss has not played well, but that does not mean the Rebels do not have some good players on the team.<br /><br />Mississippi's Chris Warren is destined to go down as one of the most under-rated players in SEC history. Despite playing in virtual obscurity thanks to the SEC West having a limited number of TV games over the last 4 years, Warren has done nothing but produce. This year he once again has a nice assist rate, and a high number of threes made. But most importantly he is great at avoiding turnovers despite being a primary ball handler. Here are his career ORtgs according to StatSheet:<br /><br />Freshman: 108.4<br />Sophomore: 110.7<br />Junior: 116.3<br />Senior: 122.4<br /><br />Tuesday is a night we should be applauding Chris Warren for winning a big game in his senior season, not knocking the Wildcats.<br /><br />The other big story Tuesday was Harrison Barnes emerging with his second 20 point game of the season. I’m not quite ready to anoint Barnes as a star, because the debacle at Georgia Tech was not that long ago, but he has definitely improved his shooting. Here are his eFG% splits. (Remember eFG% gives 3/2 weight to made threes.)<br /><br />Harrison Barnes eFG%<br />First 9 games: 38.1%<br />Next 10 games: 47.2%<br />Last 2 games: 72.6%<br /><br />72.6% is not sustainable over the course of the season, but it is a sign that Barnes is now at least sometimes, a dominant player.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8645502468967799578.post-52984498892162945192011-01-31T22:59:00.003-05:002011-01-31T23:04:04.324-05:00Can we ask for a Delayed Reality Series?<a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/this_years_question_to_the_committee/">Ken Pomeroy asked a new question</a> on Monday. Should the NCAA committee go out and watch games? But that is not his real question. His real question is whether the NCAA committee should care about style of offense, the quality of guard play, and the quality of post play? And he answers with a resounding “no”. He argues that we should not confuse an already ridiculous process with more irrelevant variables. And I cannot imagine anyone disagreeing with him on that point. (Unless you have an injury situation to analyze, these types of data points should not come into the discussion.)<br /><br />But I think his general question is actually more fascinating. Should the NCAA committee go out and watch college basketball games? I think the answer is a resounding yes. If the NCAA committee was made up of librarians who never watched college basketball, would they really have a handle on how to rank basketball teams? NCAA committee members should care about basketball and want to watch basketball games whenever possible.<br /><br /><strong>Stats Do Not Tell Us Everything in Basketball<br /></strong><br />One of the things I love about basketball is that it is not baseball. Not every important piece of information can be found in a Sabermetric log. There are a ton of things you can learn by watching games that you just cannot pick up in the box score data. As an example, <a href="http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1430">Kevin Pelton recently posted a fantastic discussion of what stats can and cannot tell us about NBA players</a>. It is not a fair comparison, because Ken Pomeroy is asking about team quality and not player quality. And I cannot currently think of any team statistics that are not measured in the box score. But I would put it this way: Having more information is a good thing. I do not think anyone should harass the committee for attempting to learn more about teams throughout the season.<br /><br />But the real problem that Ken and others identify is what happens if watching a subset of games causes the selection committee to have biased perceptions. [[This concern about “human bias” has long been discussed in the context of the BCS. The problem is that even if humans can be biased, at least humans are dynamic. People can put the wrong weight on certain pieces of data, but absent new forms of artificial intelligence, computers can only handle the problems they have encountered before. Formulas cannot anticipate or deal with unique or unusual new situations. I don’t know which form of bias is larger. I don’t know whether “personal experience bias” or “new situation bias” is a bigger problem. But I do know that computers will never win this argument. No selection process will survive if its conclusions do not mesh with popular opinion. And in the BCS, virtually all the weight has been put on the polls because that is the only system people will accept.]]<br /><br />The idea that the NCAA selection committee may be biased by seeing a subset of games does not bother me. I happen to believe that people are quite capable of putting things in context. They can watch St. John’s win on Sunday and know that it is only one data point. Perception bias is a risk I am willing to take in order to have an engaged, aware, and thoughtful committee.<br /><br />Moreover, if we are really concerned about personal biases, I would love to see the NCAA committee institute a monitoring system. We want the committee members to be free to have open and honest discussions, so I would not release the documentary immediately. But what if CBS recorded the NCAA selection process and agreed to air it 10 years after the tournament occurred? Would that be the most fascinating reality series of all time?<br /><br />Wouldn’t you love to someday go back and listen to the discussion of where Davidson deserved to be seeded when Stephen Curry had led them on that long winning streak? What about when Memphis earned a 1-seed in 2006 with a questionable resume but a dominant late-season performance.<br /><br />And wouldn’t it be fun to hear the committee debate the age-old questions? What value should we put on winning on the road relative to at home? What value do we put on close losses? What value do we put on how a team has played recently?<br /><br />Ken Pomeroy may find his formula to be the best way to answer these dilemmas, but I think he would agree this is not a one-dimensional question. People can differ in the weights they put on different factors.<br /><br />Ken’s rightful crusade is to try to remove the RPI from team data sheets, because the RPI is very weakly correlated with anything meaningful. And his crusade to eliminate non-essential variables like “style-of-offense” from the discussion is important. But I would never discourage the committee from following college basketball and collecting more information, even if watching games induces the possibility of “subset bias”.Dan Hannerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10137259389976202567noreply@blogger.com