Other than a few stat dumps, I’ll admit my posts have been rather limited this year. But if I’m going to start posting more observations, I have to start with the three teams I follow:
Georgetown
Wasn't life better when every game was an unknown? The problem with knowing the numbers is that it can ruin the surprise.
-I knew Seton Hall did not play defense, so I wasn’t surprised to see Georgetown have its best offensive rating of the year on Thursday.
-I knew UConn did not have great margin-of-victory stats. So I wasn’t shocked to see Georgetown come back from down 19. (I was thrilled they completed the comeback, but I was almost sure they’d come back somewhat.)
-I knew Marquette had great margin-of-victory stats. So I wasn’t crushed by Georgetown’s loss to a team lacking quality wins.
Yep, I’d like to thank the numbers for ruining all the suspense this season.
I’d also like to thank myself for predicting that Austin Freeman would shoot more this season, despite Hoya Prospectus accurately noting that players rarely become more aggressive in their careers. Freeman’s shot percentage has increased from 21.7% to 24.5%. I’d also like to point out that I’m completely cheating on this stat, by posting it shortly after Freeman scored 33 points in a game.
On the other hand, I’m completely shocked by how well Julian Vaughn is playing, upping his offensive rating from 88.6 to 102.5. (Again, I’m carefully posting after he just had a great game.) But the truth is, I’ve been amazed by Vaughn all season. Last year one of the things I picked up from being at the games was how totally confused Vaughn was in his first year in the Georgetown system. Vaughn was constantly in the wrong position and Monroe or Summers were constantly directing him where he needed to be. This year, it is like Vaughn is a completely different player. He’s playing with incredible confidence, and his spin move from the three point line to get a lay-up against Seton Hall, was just incredible. And the truth is, I don’t think he’s reached full potential yet. I really think Vaughn has a 25 or 30 point game in him against the right opponent.
What else can I say about attending games? Well, you see, I was in Minnesota for work for much of December. So I didn’t exactly… Blah, blah, blah. Here’s Casual Hoya with some awesome in-arena notes.
Minnesota
As previously noted, I think Minnesota’s Pomeroy ranking is inflated by crushing some bad teams in the non-conference schedule. That was just a deep experienced team picking on some smaller teams. Realistically, I think Minnesota is closer to the 30th best team in the nation than the 16th. I still like this team but my main question is whether a team can really be a Final Four contender playing a full-court pressure defense. As I’ve argued about zone defense, it just seems like the best teams know how to beat the full-court pressure. That’s why last weekend’s win against Ohio St. was so satisfying. Evan Turner was back and playing well. Trust me, Turner was dominating in the first half, and Minnesota still turned him over on about 5 possessions in a row in the second half to break the game open. And to answer my own question: Yes, a pressing team can go deep in March. But Minnesota is going to need some special individual performances to do it. And that’s why Royce White and Trevor Mbawke are missed.
Another thing I’ve been thinking about is how sometimes college basketball needs an impossible in-season goal. You know, the type of game where you look at your shoes and say, "Arggh, we never beat these guys. Can't we just get the breaks to go our way once?!"
Minnesota’s win last year at Wisconsin was so satisfying because Wisconsin is so dominate at home. It really felt like Minnesota accomplished something in that win. It is getting to that point when Minnesota plays at Michigan St. And the quotes from Lawrence Westbrook and Damian Johnson after the loss reflect that. The Seniors thought this was finally going to be the year they won at MSU. But it wasn’t. Someday Minnesota is going to win at Michigan St., and I’m sure it will be all the sweeter for those of us that watched the losses.
By the way, did anyone catch Raymar Morgan’s block of Blake Hoffarber’s three on Wednesday? Tim Doyle keeps talking about how Hoffarber has the quickest release in the Big Ten, and Morgan’s quick reaction and block, was one of the most amazing plays I’ve seen all season.
Illinois
Illinois has totally turned around my impression of Notre Dame. I usually pick on the Irish for horrible defense. And I agree that Notre Dame is unlikely to advance deep into the NCAA tournament until they figure the defense out. But Notre Dame is a really fun team to watch. And that’s how Illinois has been for most of the year. With surprisingly good offense, and shockingly poor defense for Bruce Webber, Illinois had turned into a team that was hard not to cheer for, but also hard to believe in.
This inconsistency somehow caused Seth Davis to label Illini fans as apathetic this season. But I thought the response in his mailbag was spot on. Illini fans just don’t know what to expect from their team this year.
And then just when the defense was clearly the problem, a funny thing happened. Add a little Jeffrey Jordan and Bill Cole. Subtract a little Brandon Paul (and watch Mike Davis lose his shot.) And suddenly Illinois has a worse adjusted offense than defense. Puzzling.
But while I think the move to Jordan and Cole has been good in the short term, I think the team still needs to give Brandon Paul a long-run shot to be a star. According to the St. Louis newspaper, in Fall 2003, Bruce Webber wrote the April 2005 Final Four on the blackboard and told the players they were playing for the next season. On a team with no seniors, it was perfect. And with all apologies to lone scholarship senior Dominique Keller, I think Illinois should do the same thing this year. They need to write down April 2, 2011 and play for that date. Let Paul, DJ Richardson, and Tyler Griffey develop, and hope that the sophomore jump makes this an elite team next year.
Of course, even though I’m arguing for more of the struggling Brandon Paul, I’d like to ask a simple question: How come Brandon Paul doesn’t know how to complete a fast-break basket? His attempts after Illinois gets a steal have almost become comical.
Psychic Powers
The other big thing I’m rooting for this year is my Big East predictions. John Gasaway kindly points out that a reasonable prediction for Pitt was a 10-8 mark and NIT bid. I’d like to point out that this was my exact prediction in the BP book, and while 10-8 seems a bit conservative now, I was definitely optimistic relative to most publications. With the number of player losses, and limited big time recruits, most people picked Pitt for a sub .500 finish. Let me just say this. I don’t care who they have on paper. Never pick Wisconsin or Pittsburgh for a sub .500 finish as long as Bo Ryan and Jamie Dixon are coaching.
Also, never pick against Scottie Reynolds. Did you see the drive he had against Louisville late in the game where he seemingly weaved between three players en route to a lay-up? That kind of body control is just ridiculous. But Villanova's Pomeroy ranking isn't as impressive as the poll ranking. Does that bother me? Did I predict it? The BP book is still available at Amazon.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
SEC player check, let the Kentucky man-crush continue
There are not many transfers into the Big 12 this year. Even suspended Tennessee guard Melvin Goins was technically a Junior College player last season, although I include him so you can see how inefficient he was at Ball St. two years ago. The only thing to mention is that Vernon Macklin likes the freedom to run at Florida relative to the methodical Georgetown system and his efficiency is up 20 points.
As for the Freshmen, here’s a case where the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Kentucky’s John Wall’s efficiency rate is a solid but not spectacular 114.7. But his play has been spectacular. Obviously the turnovers are dragging him down for now. But turnovers haven’t hurt Wall as much as freshman teammate Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe has posted a 32.7% turnover rate as of this last weekend.
Finishing up Kentucky, I won’t listen to any of this garbage about how DeMarcus Cousins needs to shoot less and let Patterson shoot more because Patterson is off-the-charts efficient. Cousins is a force of nature making 54% of his shots while shooting at a Luke Harangody like rate. Cousins will be in the NBA next year so we need to see him shoot while we can. Oh and did you notice that Cousins is 2nd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate and 3rd in defensive rebounding rate. Wow.
I’m going to let you in on a little secret. I like Kentucky to win the national title this year. I know this means I have to surrender my tempo-free stats appreciation card. (Sorry, the registration fee was too high anyhow.) And I’m nervous that this puts me in the camp of NBA talent fanatics. But guess what? Calipari knows how to coach defense. Memphis has been in the top 11 in defense the last 4 years. I think Kentucky will get there by the end of the year. That’s right, I’m a stats guy, and I’m saying the numbers to date are garbage. Throw them out. Kentucky is still getting better. And it isn’t that I don’t like Kansas. I think the article this week claiming the Kansas players don’t know their roles is silly. Players aren’t supposed to know their roles at this point in the season. Big 12 players are just establishing their set rotations after evaluating the teams in the non-conference. Kansas will be the favorite, and there are plenty of other teams that can do it. But Cousins’ nation leading rebounding tells me what my eyes tell me. Cousins is a man among boys on a team with a lot more physical talent than anyone in the country.
But enough about Kentucky. I don’t hear much chatter about Vanderbilt Freshman John Jenkins yet. (Well you know, except here.) But his 37 made threes are off the charts for a bench player. Also under the radar is Alabama’s Tony Mitchell who seems to have some great stats: virtually no turnovers, a ton of steals, a ton of blocks, and his efficiency is a product of 63% shooting. Taking awareness of the small sample size, Mitchell is the ultimate sixth man so far.
Florida’s Kenny Boynton may not have the same elite ORtg, but Florida will take his minutes and made shots with Nick Calathes gone. And don’t sleep on Lakeem Jackson of South Carolina. His offensive numbers aren’t great but he’s been a lock down defender. I guess that’s the point I should be emphasizing in these tables, and what I failed to emphasize in the Big 12 table. Minutes are critical. And if someone like Lakeem Jackson is getting major minutes and not posting elite efficiency numbers, there is probably a reason:
1) The team has no depth.
2) The kid has a load of potential, but is still raw.
3) The coach is an idiot.
4) There’s something that the efficiency numbers aren’t telling you.
Some people immediately jump to #3, but I don’t think that’s fair. Coaches are heavily invested in winning. (They need to do it to keep their jobs.) So the idiots don’t last long. I’m big on #4.
As for the Junior College additions, only Arkansas’ Jemal Farmer is getting major minutes. But his biggest skill so far has simply been his ability to get fouled. Hey, a lot of teams can use a guy who takes the ball to the basket.
Scroll down to see all newcomers to the SEC. As I failed to note last week, all numbers are from kenpom.com.
Welcome Back
So what’s changed in the SEC so far this year, remembering all the caveats in the Big 12 column about opponent quality?
Earning More Minutes
A lot of players get injured, miss a year, and never come back and play well. That hasn’t been the case with Vanderbilt’s Andre Walker. He may have missed last season, but he’s come back with a vengeance hitting 65% of his shots and being a key defensive force.
Auburn Senior (and former JC transfer) Brendon Knox has been unstoppable this year making 74% of his shots. There’s nothing more glass half full, half empty then a player that develops this late. On the one hand, Auburn fans have to be cursing the fact that Knox will be gone next year, and he should have earned a chance earlier. On the other hand, you have to love the success story of someone who played JC ball, waited his turn, and has finally become a solid SEC post player.
Alabama’s Anthony Brock has incredible splits. He shoots 3’s well, but can’t make a 2 pointer to save his life. (His splits are less surprising when you note that he’s 5’9” tall.) This year he’s taking less 2’s and less shots overall, and his efficiency has received a noticeable bump upward.
Georgia’s Trey Tompkins and Travis (greatest dunk of 2010) Leslie, have been given the green light to shoot even more under new coach Mark Fox, and both have responded to the increased shots with increased efficiency. Give Mark Fox credit for inducing the “sophomore year efficiency leap” in these two, but let’s see if it lasts in SEC play.
More impressively, LSU sophomore Storm Warren has dramatically increased his minutes, increased his number of shots, and increased his efficiency, all at the same time.
What an odd career for South Carolina’s Brandis Raley-Ross. In 2007 he started for South Carolina, but made only 31% of his threes. In 2008, he came off the bench and made 51% of his threes. Back in the strating lineup in 2009, he shot only 31% from down town. And now in 2010, he’s back at 45% made threes. I guess he likes even years.
LSU’s Bo Spencer is going the other way. After an impressive 60 made threes on 40% three point shooting last year, he’s now shooting under 30% and his efficiency has gone in the tank. Meanwhile Florida’s Erving Walker has gotten minutes at the point guard role with Nick Calathes out, but he hasn’t responded well in the role. The former 42% three point shooter with 70 made threes last year can’t seem to buy a basket when someone isn’t setting him up.
Losing Minutes
Ole Miss has gotten a couple players back from injury last year, and the overall depth has improved efficiency across the board. I’m not sure Zach Graham and Terrance Henry are really better this year, but they’ve played well when they’ve been on the floor.
On the other hand, former South Carolina three point gunner Evan Baniulis can’t make a shot and now the senior can’t stay on the floor. And for all of us convinced that there is a sophomore leap in production, there’s always a player like Vanderbilt sophomore Brad Tinsley to ruin that prediction. Tinsley isn’t just missing shots this year, he’s turning the ball over at a high rate.
And you aren’t sure whether to feel good or bad for Kentucky’s Perry Stevenson. On the one hand, he’s going to be part of a pretty special Kentucky team this year. On the other hand, his minutes have fallen by 47%, he doesn’t get to shoot, and somehow he’s been turning the ball over when he does get it in his hands.
Still a Large Role
Meanwhile Kentucky’s Darius Miller has stayed in the rotation, and has simply benefited from all the stars around him. Miller is now shooting 43% on threes, but let’s just say he’s been wide open more than last year. And Arkansas’ Rotnei Clark has definitely taken the sophomore leap in terms of both possessions used and conversions.
Mississippi St. brought back its top eight players in terms of minutes from last year, and no one has benefited more from the continuity than forward Ravern Johnson who has upped his shooting percentage inside and outside the arc and is currently one of the most efficient players in the SEC.
Finally, Florida’s Dan Werner and Alex Tyus are another pair of players missing Calathes. Both are struggling relative to last season.
As for the Freshmen, here’s a case where the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Kentucky’s John Wall’s efficiency rate is a solid but not spectacular 114.7. But his play has been spectacular. Obviously the turnovers are dragging him down for now. But turnovers haven’t hurt Wall as much as freshman teammate Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe has posted a 32.7% turnover rate as of this last weekend.
Finishing up Kentucky, I won’t listen to any of this garbage about how DeMarcus Cousins needs to shoot less and let Patterson shoot more because Patterson is off-the-charts efficient. Cousins is a force of nature making 54% of his shots while shooting at a Luke Harangody like rate. Cousins will be in the NBA next year so we need to see him shoot while we can. Oh and did you notice that Cousins is 2nd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate and 3rd in defensive rebounding rate. Wow.
I’m going to let you in on a little secret. I like Kentucky to win the national title this year. I know this means I have to surrender my tempo-free stats appreciation card. (Sorry, the registration fee was too high anyhow.) And I’m nervous that this puts me in the camp of NBA talent fanatics. But guess what? Calipari knows how to coach defense. Memphis has been in the top 11 in defense the last 4 years. I think Kentucky will get there by the end of the year. That’s right, I’m a stats guy, and I’m saying the numbers to date are garbage. Throw them out. Kentucky is still getting better. And it isn’t that I don’t like Kansas. I think the article this week claiming the Kansas players don’t know their roles is silly. Players aren’t supposed to know their roles at this point in the season. Big 12 players are just establishing their set rotations after evaluating the teams in the non-conference. Kansas will be the favorite, and there are plenty of other teams that can do it. But Cousins’ nation leading rebounding tells me what my eyes tell me. Cousins is a man among boys on a team with a lot more physical talent than anyone in the country.
But enough about Kentucky. I don’t hear much chatter about Vanderbilt Freshman John Jenkins yet. (Well you know, except here.) But his 37 made threes are off the charts for a bench player. Also under the radar is Alabama’s Tony Mitchell who seems to have some great stats: virtually no turnovers, a ton of steals, a ton of blocks, and his efficiency is a product of 63% shooting. Taking awareness of the small sample size, Mitchell is the ultimate sixth man so far.
Florida’s Kenny Boynton may not have the same elite ORtg, but Florida will take his minutes and made shots with Nick Calathes gone. And don’t sleep on Lakeem Jackson of South Carolina. His offensive numbers aren’t great but he’s been a lock down defender. I guess that’s the point I should be emphasizing in these tables, and what I failed to emphasize in the Big 12 table. Minutes are critical. And if someone like Lakeem Jackson is getting major minutes and not posting elite efficiency numbers, there is probably a reason:
1) The team has no depth.
2) The kid has a load of potential, but is still raw.
3) The coach is an idiot.
4) There’s something that the efficiency numbers aren’t telling you.
Some people immediately jump to #3, but I don’t think that’s fair. Coaches are heavily invested in winning. (They need to do it to keep their jobs.) So the idiots don’t last long. I’m big on #4.
As for the Junior College additions, only Arkansas’ Jemal Farmer is getting major minutes. But his biggest skill so far has simply been his ability to get fouled. Hey, a lot of teams can use a guy who takes the ball to the basket.
Scroll down to see all newcomers to the SEC. As I failed to note last week, all numbers are from kenpom.com.
Welcome Back
So what’s changed in the SEC so far this year, remembering all the caveats in the Big 12 column about opponent quality?
Earning More Minutes
A lot of players get injured, miss a year, and never come back and play well. That hasn’t been the case with Vanderbilt’s Andre Walker. He may have missed last season, but he’s come back with a vengeance hitting 65% of his shots and being a key defensive force.
Auburn Senior (and former JC transfer) Brendon Knox has been unstoppable this year making 74% of his shots. There’s nothing more glass half full, half empty then a player that develops this late. On the one hand, Auburn fans have to be cursing the fact that Knox will be gone next year, and he should have earned a chance earlier. On the other hand, you have to love the success story of someone who played JC ball, waited his turn, and has finally become a solid SEC post player.
Alabama’s Anthony Brock has incredible splits. He shoots 3’s well, but can’t make a 2 pointer to save his life. (His splits are less surprising when you note that he’s 5’9” tall.) This year he’s taking less 2’s and less shots overall, and his efficiency has received a noticeable bump upward.
Georgia’s Trey Tompkins and Travis (greatest dunk of 2010) Leslie, have been given the green light to shoot even more under new coach Mark Fox, and both have responded to the increased shots with increased efficiency. Give Mark Fox credit for inducing the “sophomore year efficiency leap” in these two, but let’s see if it lasts in SEC play.
More impressively, LSU sophomore Storm Warren has dramatically increased his minutes, increased his number of shots, and increased his efficiency, all at the same time.
What an odd career for South Carolina’s Brandis Raley-Ross. In 2007 he started for South Carolina, but made only 31% of his threes. In 2008, he came off the bench and made 51% of his threes. Back in the strating lineup in 2009, he shot only 31% from down town. And now in 2010, he’s back at 45% made threes. I guess he likes even years.
LSU’s Bo Spencer is going the other way. After an impressive 60 made threes on 40% three point shooting last year, he’s now shooting under 30% and his efficiency has gone in the tank. Meanwhile Florida’s Erving Walker has gotten minutes at the point guard role with Nick Calathes out, but he hasn’t responded well in the role. The former 42% three point shooter with 70 made threes last year can’t seem to buy a basket when someone isn’t setting him up.
Losing Minutes
Ole Miss has gotten a couple players back from injury last year, and the overall depth has improved efficiency across the board. I’m not sure Zach Graham and Terrance Henry are really better this year, but they’ve played well when they’ve been on the floor.
On the other hand, former South Carolina three point gunner Evan Baniulis can’t make a shot and now the senior can’t stay on the floor. And for all of us convinced that there is a sophomore leap in production, there’s always a player like Vanderbilt sophomore Brad Tinsley to ruin that prediction. Tinsley isn’t just missing shots this year, he’s turning the ball over at a high rate.
And you aren’t sure whether to feel good or bad for Kentucky’s Perry Stevenson. On the one hand, he’s going to be part of a pretty special Kentucky team this year. On the other hand, his minutes have fallen by 47%, he doesn’t get to shoot, and somehow he’s been turning the ball over when he does get it in his hands.
Still a Large Role
Meanwhile Kentucky’s Darius Miller has stayed in the rotation, and has simply benefited from all the stars around him. Miller is now shooting 43% on threes, but let’s just say he’s been wide open more than last year. And Arkansas’ Rotnei Clark has definitely taken the sophomore leap in terms of both possessions used and conversions.
Mississippi St. brought back its top eight players in terms of minutes from last year, and no one has benefited more from the continuity than forward Ravern Johnson who has upped his shooting percentage inside and outside the arc and is currently one of the most efficient players in the SEC.
Finally, Florida’s Dan Werner and Alex Tyus are another pair of players missing Calathes. Both are struggling relative to last season.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Who is New, Who is Better, and Who is Worse in the Big 12?
Today I thought I’d look at some of the Big 12 individual player statistics. The concern with looking at these numbers this early in the year is that individual offensive ratings are not adjusted for the quality of opponent. Thus players that played a lot of cupcakes early will look better than expected. And I suspect that many post players look better since they’ve been up against shorter non-conference teams. But let's take a look at what we can learn.
I start with a complete list of all the new players in the Big 12.
-Of the four transfers getting playing time, all are playing well. I read early on how UConn transfer and Kansas State forward Curtis Kelly was going to be a star, and I remain skeptical how he’ll perform in the tough Big 12 after posting mediocre numbers at UConn. (In fact, he nearly fouled out and played just 9 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Missouri.) But Kelly has performed well on the season to date, posting an offensive rating of 109.4. Baylor forward Ekpe Udoh, who didn’t like John Beilein’s system and transferred from Michigan has looked even better, playing 84% of his team’s minutes, posting an offensive rating of 119.1, and posting elite offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Baylor has been a fun, fast, guard-oriented team the last few years, but having a real post presence in Udoh may be key to Baylor’s success this year.
-As for the freshman, the obvious names are getting a lot of minutes and using them well from Xavier Henry to Avery Bradley. But don’t overlook the efficiency of someone like Nebraska’s Eshaunte Jones. The three point gunner is making over 50% of his threes and continuing the perimeter-oriented-tradition in Cornhusker land. And what about Texas wing Jordan Hamilton? He isn’t getting as much playing time on a deep Texas squad, but Hamilton’s combined inside and outside game make him a possible future star for the Longhorns. Finally, Oklahoma may be struggling, but not because its three freshman don’t know how to score. It’s because Oklahoma doesn’t play any defense this season.
-As for the new junior college transfers, Texas Tech’s David Tairu is a pure shooter. Not only has he made about half his three attempts, he’s earned a ton of free throws and made about 80% of them. But no one has been more important to his team’s success than Iowa St.’s Marquis Gilstrap. He’s fit in well in the Iowa St. system which lets the good scorers shoot as much as they want.
Scroll down in the next table to see all the new names. Finally, note that these numbers ignore the mid-season transfers who might make an impact. (Why? Because mid-season transfers don’t have any numbers yet.) But that doesn’t mean they won’t be key down the stretch. In particular, Christian Standhardinger of Nebraska looks like he might play a key role after leading Nebraska in scoring on Saturday.
Getting Better, Worse
Why are Kansas forwards Marcus and Markieff Morris substantially more efficient than last year? Is it the fact that sophomore year is usually the biggest jump in efficiency for players? Is it because of the addition of Xavier Henry and another weapon to double team on Kansas? Is it simply the smaller non-conference opponents allowing the Morris twins to get unimpeded looks at the basket? Who knows? But like many players, they’ve been more efficient so far this year.
Let’s break it down into different categories:
-I start with players earning more playing time. Texas A&M point guard Dash Harris has substantially cut down his turnovers and is earning free throws at an amazing rate this year while earning a 31 point jump in offensive efficiency. Now if only he would make some of those free throws. (Currently under 60%) Harris was expected to mature into the point guard role, but other jumps in efficiency are more uncertain. Is Texas Tech’s D’Walyn Roberts really that much better this year? Or is his high shooting percentage and incredible rebounding for a 6’7” player a function of playing a parade of cupcakes. Like Texas Tech’s “poll” ranking, I need to see more in conference play. Similarly, Oklahoma’s Ryan Wright seemingly couldn’t make a lay-up last year when he posted an 81.1 ORtg. Will his sudden proficiency in the paint and 104.7 ORtg continue? Lance Bowers of Missouri has been feasting on lay-ups this year bringing his ORtg all the way up to 132.2, but that isn’t even much of an increase given how well he shot last year. Bowers is one sophomore starter who should remain efficient in Big 12 play because the Missouri defense should continue to create fast break opportunities.
On the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma St.’s Marshall Moses and Missorui’s Justin Safford have been given a larger role in the post this year, and both have been inconsistent, watching their ORtgs drop below 100. Both players are shooting at a higher rate when on the floor, so perhaps the increase in volume explains the drop in efficiency.
-Next I look at players earning fewer minutes. This is mostly players on Colorado (which now has more depth), and Kansas (which has unbelievable depth this year.) Colorado players Nate Tomlinson and Austin Dufault are playing substantially better, but they’ve been able to be more selective this year on their three point attempts. When this team gets behind in conference games and has to force some threes, I’m not sure the efficiency will stay there.
Kansas’s Tyrel Reed is a classic example of the Kansas depth. He now barely plays, but has moved his ORtg up to 128.2. Similarly Sherron Collins has really benefited from Xavier Henry’s presence. He’s been able to play less minutes, and by taking about 7% fewer possessions when on the floor, Collins has raised his ORtg over 10 points.
Texas’s Gary Johnson has also been encouraged to take substantially fewer shots, and he’s seen a 20 point jump in his efficiency rating.
But less playing time isn’t always a good thing. Texas guard Justin Mason has struggled enormously and his high turnover rate has not only killed his ORtg this year and dropped him from the starting lineup, it is threatening to drop him from the rotation completely. And let’s not even talk about what happened to Texas Tech’s Robert Lewandowski this year as his ORtg has fallen to an abysmal 70.0.
More worthy of discussion this year is the fact that Kansas center Cole Aldrich has seen the team become more talented around him, and yet Aldrich has actually become less efficient this year.
-Next I look at players whose minutes have stayed high, both last year and this year. Kansas St.’s Jacob Pullen might be benefiting from more talent around him, or the Junior might just be getting better. His 23 point jump in ORtg to 125.0 is a function of a player who has already made 47 threes this year.
I’d also be impressed with Iowa St.’s Craig Brackins 18 point jump in efficiency this year, but I have a feeling he’ll keep shooting until he gets it lower by the end of the year. But Iowa St.’s Lucca Staiger may stay efficient, for the simple reason that no one else on the team lets him shoot.
The real story though might be Texas A&M’s Donald Sloan. He’s shooting more often and making a higher percentage. His ability to move to off-guard at times thanks to Dash Harris’ emergence has made him an even more dangerous offensive weapon. (This by-the-way is exactly what Cincinnati thought would happen with Cashmere Wright allowing Deonta Vaughn to move to off-guard, but Wright hasn’t panned out.)
On the negative side, everyone wants to point fingers at Willie Warren, but he’s using about 10% more possessions this year, and he’s now the focal point of the defense, so I don’t think his numbers are terrible at all. A 10 point drop in efficiency is not a disaster, when Warren has an elite assist rate and when his teammates are all either playing well as freshman, or getting better (as in the case of Tony Crocker.) The problem, as mentioned above, is the Oklahoma defense.
-As for role players, I’m less inclined to read much into changes for these players, since the opponent and time of game matters so significantly. But Kansas St.’s Chris Merriewether was playing terrible, even before he was “bumped” by Frank Martin on Saturday. Perhaps most notable for this group is the fact that Dexter Pittman still only averages 48.3% of his teams minutes. Call it conditioning, call it dumb fouls, but the Senior forward needs to be on the floor for his team to compete for a national title.
-Finally, I list a group of players that have missed time due to injury / suspension, ect. With such a small sample, there isn’t much to say here. Brady Morningstar is good, but he isn’t 151.5 ORtg good.
I start with a complete list of all the new players in the Big 12.
-Of the four transfers getting playing time, all are playing well. I read early on how UConn transfer and Kansas State forward Curtis Kelly was going to be a star, and I remain skeptical how he’ll perform in the tough Big 12 after posting mediocre numbers at UConn. (In fact, he nearly fouled out and played just 9 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Missouri.) But Kelly has performed well on the season to date, posting an offensive rating of 109.4. Baylor forward Ekpe Udoh, who didn’t like John Beilein’s system and transferred from Michigan has looked even better, playing 84% of his team’s minutes, posting an offensive rating of 119.1, and posting elite offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Baylor has been a fun, fast, guard-oriented team the last few years, but having a real post presence in Udoh may be key to Baylor’s success this year.
-As for the freshman, the obvious names are getting a lot of minutes and using them well from Xavier Henry to Avery Bradley. But don’t overlook the efficiency of someone like Nebraska’s Eshaunte Jones. The three point gunner is making over 50% of his threes and continuing the perimeter-oriented-tradition in Cornhusker land. And what about Texas wing Jordan Hamilton? He isn’t getting as much playing time on a deep Texas squad, but Hamilton’s combined inside and outside game make him a possible future star for the Longhorns. Finally, Oklahoma may be struggling, but not because its three freshman don’t know how to score. It’s because Oklahoma doesn’t play any defense this season.
-As for the new junior college transfers, Texas Tech’s David Tairu is a pure shooter. Not only has he made about half his three attempts, he’s earned a ton of free throws and made about 80% of them. But no one has been more important to his team’s success than Iowa St.’s Marquis Gilstrap. He’s fit in well in the Iowa St. system which lets the good scorers shoot as much as they want.
Scroll down in the next table to see all the new names. Finally, note that these numbers ignore the mid-season transfers who might make an impact. (Why? Because mid-season transfers don’t have any numbers yet.) But that doesn’t mean they won’t be key down the stretch. In particular, Christian Standhardinger of Nebraska looks like he might play a key role after leading Nebraska in scoring on Saturday.
Getting Better, Worse
Why are Kansas forwards Marcus and Markieff Morris substantially more efficient than last year? Is it the fact that sophomore year is usually the biggest jump in efficiency for players? Is it because of the addition of Xavier Henry and another weapon to double team on Kansas? Is it simply the smaller non-conference opponents allowing the Morris twins to get unimpeded looks at the basket? Who knows? But like many players, they’ve been more efficient so far this year.
Let’s break it down into different categories:
-I start with players earning more playing time. Texas A&M point guard Dash Harris has substantially cut down his turnovers and is earning free throws at an amazing rate this year while earning a 31 point jump in offensive efficiency. Now if only he would make some of those free throws. (Currently under 60%) Harris was expected to mature into the point guard role, but other jumps in efficiency are more uncertain. Is Texas Tech’s D’Walyn Roberts really that much better this year? Or is his high shooting percentage and incredible rebounding for a 6’7” player a function of playing a parade of cupcakes. Like Texas Tech’s “poll” ranking, I need to see more in conference play. Similarly, Oklahoma’s Ryan Wright seemingly couldn’t make a lay-up last year when he posted an 81.1 ORtg. Will his sudden proficiency in the paint and 104.7 ORtg continue? Lance Bowers of Missouri has been feasting on lay-ups this year bringing his ORtg all the way up to 132.2, but that isn’t even much of an increase given how well he shot last year. Bowers is one sophomore starter who should remain efficient in Big 12 play because the Missouri defense should continue to create fast break opportunities.
On the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma St.’s Marshall Moses and Missorui’s Justin Safford have been given a larger role in the post this year, and both have been inconsistent, watching their ORtgs drop below 100. Both players are shooting at a higher rate when on the floor, so perhaps the increase in volume explains the drop in efficiency.
-Next I look at players earning fewer minutes. This is mostly players on Colorado (which now has more depth), and Kansas (which has unbelievable depth this year.) Colorado players Nate Tomlinson and Austin Dufault are playing substantially better, but they’ve been able to be more selective this year on their three point attempts. When this team gets behind in conference games and has to force some threes, I’m not sure the efficiency will stay there.
Kansas’s Tyrel Reed is a classic example of the Kansas depth. He now barely plays, but has moved his ORtg up to 128.2. Similarly Sherron Collins has really benefited from Xavier Henry’s presence. He’s been able to play less minutes, and by taking about 7% fewer possessions when on the floor, Collins has raised his ORtg over 10 points.
Texas’s Gary Johnson has also been encouraged to take substantially fewer shots, and he’s seen a 20 point jump in his efficiency rating.
But less playing time isn’t always a good thing. Texas guard Justin Mason has struggled enormously and his high turnover rate has not only killed his ORtg this year and dropped him from the starting lineup, it is threatening to drop him from the rotation completely. And let’s not even talk about what happened to Texas Tech’s Robert Lewandowski this year as his ORtg has fallen to an abysmal 70.0.
More worthy of discussion this year is the fact that Kansas center Cole Aldrich has seen the team become more talented around him, and yet Aldrich has actually become less efficient this year.
-Next I look at players whose minutes have stayed high, both last year and this year. Kansas St.’s Jacob Pullen might be benefiting from more talent around him, or the Junior might just be getting better. His 23 point jump in ORtg to 125.0 is a function of a player who has already made 47 threes this year.
I’d also be impressed with Iowa St.’s Craig Brackins 18 point jump in efficiency this year, but I have a feeling he’ll keep shooting until he gets it lower by the end of the year. But Iowa St.’s Lucca Staiger may stay efficient, for the simple reason that no one else on the team lets him shoot.
The real story though might be Texas A&M’s Donald Sloan. He’s shooting more often and making a higher percentage. His ability to move to off-guard at times thanks to Dash Harris’ emergence has made him an even more dangerous offensive weapon. (This by-the-way is exactly what Cincinnati thought would happen with Cashmere Wright allowing Deonta Vaughn to move to off-guard, but Wright hasn’t panned out.)
On the negative side, everyone wants to point fingers at Willie Warren, but he’s using about 10% more possessions this year, and he’s now the focal point of the defense, so I don’t think his numbers are terrible at all. A 10 point drop in efficiency is not a disaster, when Warren has an elite assist rate and when his teammates are all either playing well as freshman, or getting better (as in the case of Tony Crocker.) The problem, as mentioned above, is the Oklahoma defense.
-As for role players, I’m less inclined to read much into changes for these players, since the opponent and time of game matters so significantly. But Kansas St.’s Chris Merriewether was playing terrible, even before he was “bumped” by Frank Martin on Saturday. Perhaps most notable for this group is the fact that Dexter Pittman still only averages 48.3% of his teams minutes. Call it conditioning, call it dumb fouls, but the Senior forward needs to be on the floor for his team to compete for a national title.
-Finally, I list a group of players that have missed time due to injury / suspension, ect. With such a small sample, there isn’t much to say here. Brady Morningstar is good, but he isn’t 151.5 ORtg good.
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