As discussed previously by Luke Winn, while top 100 players don't always contribute right away, the top 10 are rarely busts. Here's a list of Top 10 recruits that are still in college:
While I agree this is more fair than tracking McDonald's All-Americans, there are fewer busts to joke about. You'll note I presented the standard numbers and not the tempo-free numbers. If you just looked at the tempo free numbers (and didn't properly account for the percentage of minutes and shots), you might think John Henson was having a solid year. But the old-fashioned statistics paint the story here. Henson has had a very quiet debut. Similarly, Delvon Roe has been efficient, but not prolific. Everyone else on this list would have to be deemed a major contributor. And indeed, every one of these top 10 recruits who is playing in college has an invididual offensive efficiency rating over 100.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Lance Stephenson NBA Superstar
You know how at the end of the game the officials swallow the whistle? Well Lance Stephenson just got a relatively phantom call in the lane in a tie game in the final seconds. Moreover, the call looked like it happened after time expired. But somehow Stephenson, like an NBA star player with a "wouldn't miss the shot" reputation, earned the call. (He also laid on the floor for 80 seconds, in what seemed like an unsportsmanlike celebration to me.) And after an official review, Lance was determined to have been fouled with 0.7 seconds left in the tie game. Stephenson then knocked down two free throws as Cincinnati beat Connecticut.
It wasn't the only timing question in the game. 55 seconds earlier, UConn tipped the ball away with the shot clock running down, but Cincinnati dived on the loose ball and called time out. Problem was, the shot clock should have expired. Instead Cincinnati was awared a generous 1 second. Let's just say fate was on Cincinnati's side tonight.
But more importantly, the Bearcats survived a game when its best two players, Yancy Gates and Deonta Vaughn had foul trouble. This will be a really nice win to have on Selection Sunday.
Elsewhere
-Northwestern may fall out of the AP poll for the first time in 40 years this week, but after they lost in OT at Illinois, they didn't lose my respect. Northwestern is always reliant on threes and backdoor cuts, but the thing that has hurt them in recent years is the lack of true athletes. Look, I love the Princeton offense, but sometimes threes and backdoor cuts don't work and you just need someone to make a play. Northwestern now has two of those players. Michael "Juice" Thompson is the terrific point guard with a ridiculously low 10.9% TO rate for a player that drives as often as he does. But the key addition this year is freshman Drew Crawford. He's a slasher and athletic rebounder that provides some incredible balance to what Northwestern does. And with a 125.9 ORtg, Crawford is the kind of freshman that can keep Northwestern in the hunt.
-William & Mary is an upper division ACC school this year. They won at Wake Forest and now Maryland. Hmm, it's looking like Colonial Williamsburg will be more than just a fun vacation spot this year, it might be the home of the CAA favorites.
It wasn't the only timing question in the game. 55 seconds earlier, UConn tipped the ball away with the shot clock running down, but Cincinnati dived on the loose ball and called time out. Problem was, the shot clock should have expired. Instead Cincinnati was awared a generous 1 second. Let's just say fate was on Cincinnati's side tonight.
But more importantly, the Bearcats survived a game when its best two players, Yancy Gates and Deonta Vaughn had foul trouble. This will be a really nice win to have on Selection Sunday.
Elsewhere
-Northwestern may fall out of the AP poll for the first time in 40 years this week, but after they lost in OT at Illinois, they didn't lose my respect. Northwestern is always reliant on threes and backdoor cuts, but the thing that has hurt them in recent years is the lack of true athletes. Look, I love the Princeton offense, but sometimes threes and backdoor cuts don't work and you just need someone to make a play. Northwestern now has two of those players. Michael "Juice" Thompson is the terrific point guard with a ridiculously low 10.9% TO rate for a player that drives as often as he does. But the key addition this year is freshman Drew Crawford. He's a slasher and athletic rebounder that provides some incredible balance to what Northwestern does. And with a 125.9 ORtg, Crawford is the kind of freshman that can keep Northwestern in the hunt.
-William & Mary is an upper division ACC school this year. They won at Wake Forest and now Maryland. Hmm, it's looking like Colonial Williamsburg will be more than just a fun vacation spot this year, it might be the home of the CAA favorites.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
What College Basketball does better than the NFL
Does anyone really watch college basketball between the ACC Challenge and the start of conference play? OK, sure I remember a few things from this month. I remember John Wall’s slashing dunk against Indiana. I remember Stanford’s ferocious comeback against Oklahoma St. in the Pac-10 / Big 12 shootout that came up just short.* And I remember Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell hitting a pair of three pointers to tie the game against West Virginia and send the game to OT before Seton Hall ultimately lost. But I, like most college basketball fans consider this to be the “ticket exchange” season. This is the time of the year when you end up spending more time trying to give your tickets away then actually enjoying the games.
*In case you didn’t notice, Stanford is the unluckiest BCS program as of today. Sometimes Pomeroy’s “luck” is a statistical fabrication where teams win big and lose by five or six, but Stanford has several legitimate heartbreaking losses. The Cardinal lost to Kentucky in OT, Oklahoma St. by 1, and Oral Roberts by 2.
And although I’ve paged through the numbers and amused myself with a few facts, there hasn’t been enough to hold my attention. Here’s one topic: Louisville, Syracuse, and West Virginia all entered the season with serious ball distribution questions and the fate of each team has been linked to the addition/return of a turnover plagued point guard.
For Syracuse, it was Scoop Jardine. He missed 2009 due to injury and had huge shoes to fill in the place of Johnny Flynn. For West Virginia, it was Darryl “Truck” Bryant who was suspended this summer after a hit-and-run and was questionable to play and start early this season. And for Louisville, it was McDonald’s All-American freshman Peyton Siva whose ball handling was needed with point forward Terrence Williams graduating in the off-season.
So far, the results have matched the team standings.
-Syracuse’s Scoop Jardine sports an assist rate of 38.2% which is good for 15th in the nation. His ability to set up his teammates has Syracuse in Pomeroy’s Top 5.
-West Virginia’s Darry “Truck” Bryant sports a 26.5% assist rate which given the Mountaineer’s depth has been good enough for a Top 5 Pomeroy Rank.
-But Louisville’s Peyton Siva has turned the ball over 34.3% of the time which has been good enough for a spot on the bench. This has meant no real challenge for playing time for the inconsistent Edgar Sosa, and an inconsistent start for Louisville.
By the way, I’ve always been puzzled by Pomeroy’s characterization of Major Contributors and Nearly Invisible based on possessions used. But what does it mean for a player like Siva? Siva only takes 17.4% of the team’s shots but is classified as a major contributor because he turns it over so much he takes 25.4% of the team’s possessions. Amusing.
But none of that was the point of this post. The point of this post was that watching other sports reminds me why college basketball has a near perfect system for selecting the post-season.
The Play to Win Principle
This week, the Colts rested their starters because the games were meaningless. This robbed the season ticket holders of an entertaining game. And it provided an unfair advantage in playoff positioning. Whereas Houston had to play Indianapolis twice when Indy was at full strength, the Jets got to play Indy for 2.5 quarters, and a JV squad for 1.5 quarters.
But one beautiful feature of college basketball is that this rarely happens. Because a committee evaluates and seeds teams, teams need to keep playing hard at the end of the year. No one can wrap up a 1 seed on Feb. 15th, and play the bench the rest of the year. The finishing stretch is a vital component of seeding, and the good teams try to play their best at the end of the year.
Imagine if the NFL was like college basketball this year. Would a 13-2 Saints team really be a “lock” for a 1 seed after a bad loss to Tampa Bay? Or would streaking San Diego be moved out of their “region” and given a 1 seed in the NFC? And what about a team like Carolina which sits at 7-8 after crushing wins over Minnesota and the New York Giants. How big would their game against New Orleans be this weekend if New Orleans was fighting to hold a 1 seed and if Carolina was a hot bubble team? The property that team’s have to play hard at the end of the regular season is something most sports leagues should want, but is sadly missing in most pro leagues in the US.
I note that the “play-to-win late in the year” principle isn’t unique to college basketball. The World Cup implicitly includes it. That’s because soccer teams are seeded in the draw for World Cup slots. Thus even if England clinches a World Cup Berth in their Euro Qualifying Pod, they still have to try to win the remaining games to maintain their FIFA ranking and earn a protected seed in future tournaments.
Keeping this in mind, there are several solutions the NFL could implement to get more incentive compatibility. First, like the FIFA rankings, the Colts wins this year could have some minimal impact on future seeding. I.e., this year’s record could be a tie-breaker for next year’s playoff spot.
Or for something wacky, the NFL could do the reverse of the NBA draft lottery. What if playoff seeding was determined through a draw where the more wins a team had, the better odds they have of getting a favorable slot? Nothing is set until the final draw, so every game counts. Maybe this wouldn’t be ideal, but it would be incentive compatible. And it is an issue the NFL should think about, particularly if the NFL goes to 18 games in the future.
*In case you didn’t notice, Stanford is the unluckiest BCS program as of today. Sometimes Pomeroy’s “luck” is a statistical fabrication where teams win big and lose by five or six, but Stanford has several legitimate heartbreaking losses. The Cardinal lost to Kentucky in OT, Oklahoma St. by 1, and Oral Roberts by 2.
And although I’ve paged through the numbers and amused myself with a few facts, there hasn’t been enough to hold my attention. Here’s one topic: Louisville, Syracuse, and West Virginia all entered the season with serious ball distribution questions and the fate of each team has been linked to the addition/return of a turnover plagued point guard.
For Syracuse, it was Scoop Jardine. He missed 2009 due to injury and had huge shoes to fill in the place of Johnny Flynn. For West Virginia, it was Darryl “Truck” Bryant who was suspended this summer after a hit-and-run and was questionable to play and start early this season. And for Louisville, it was McDonald’s All-American freshman Peyton Siva whose ball handling was needed with point forward Terrence Williams graduating in the off-season.
So far, the results have matched the team standings.
-Syracuse’s Scoop Jardine sports an assist rate of 38.2% which is good for 15th in the nation. His ability to set up his teammates has Syracuse in Pomeroy’s Top 5.
-West Virginia’s Darry “Truck” Bryant sports a 26.5% assist rate which given the Mountaineer’s depth has been good enough for a Top 5 Pomeroy Rank.
-But Louisville’s Peyton Siva has turned the ball over 34.3% of the time which has been good enough for a spot on the bench. This has meant no real challenge for playing time for the inconsistent Edgar Sosa, and an inconsistent start for Louisville.
By the way, I’ve always been puzzled by Pomeroy’s characterization of Major Contributors and Nearly Invisible based on possessions used. But what does it mean for a player like Siva? Siva only takes 17.4% of the team’s shots but is classified as a major contributor because he turns it over so much he takes 25.4% of the team’s possessions. Amusing.
But none of that was the point of this post. The point of this post was that watching other sports reminds me why college basketball has a near perfect system for selecting the post-season.
The Play to Win Principle
This week, the Colts rested their starters because the games were meaningless. This robbed the season ticket holders of an entertaining game. And it provided an unfair advantage in playoff positioning. Whereas Houston had to play Indianapolis twice when Indy was at full strength, the Jets got to play Indy for 2.5 quarters, and a JV squad for 1.5 quarters.
But one beautiful feature of college basketball is that this rarely happens. Because a committee evaluates and seeds teams, teams need to keep playing hard at the end of the year. No one can wrap up a 1 seed on Feb. 15th, and play the bench the rest of the year. The finishing stretch is a vital component of seeding, and the good teams try to play their best at the end of the year.
Imagine if the NFL was like college basketball this year. Would a 13-2 Saints team really be a “lock” for a 1 seed after a bad loss to Tampa Bay? Or would streaking San Diego be moved out of their “region” and given a 1 seed in the NFC? And what about a team like Carolina which sits at 7-8 after crushing wins over Minnesota and the New York Giants. How big would their game against New Orleans be this weekend if New Orleans was fighting to hold a 1 seed and if Carolina was a hot bubble team? The property that team’s have to play hard at the end of the regular season is something most sports leagues should want, but is sadly missing in most pro leagues in the US.
I note that the “play-to-win late in the year” principle isn’t unique to college basketball. The World Cup implicitly includes it. That’s because soccer teams are seeded in the draw for World Cup slots. Thus even if England clinches a World Cup Berth in their Euro Qualifying Pod, they still have to try to win the remaining games to maintain their FIFA ranking and earn a protected seed in future tournaments.
Keeping this in mind, there are several solutions the NFL could implement to get more incentive compatibility. First, like the FIFA rankings, the Colts wins this year could have some minimal impact on future seeding. I.e., this year’s record could be a tie-breaker for next year’s playoff spot.
Or for something wacky, the NFL could do the reverse of the NBA draft lottery. What if playoff seeding was determined through a draw where the more wins a team had, the better odds they have of getting a favorable slot? Nothing is set until the final draw, so every game counts. Maybe this wouldn’t be ideal, but it would be incentive compatible. And it is an issue the NFL should think about, particularly if the NFL goes to 18 games in the future.
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