Saturday Notes
-Nice calls by Seth Davis in his Friday column. He picked Kentucky to upset Vanderbilt and Cincinnati to beat Villanova. Kentucky is getting healthy just in time to torture the SEC and hurt the RPI of everyone else in the league.
-Roy Hibbert of Georgetown hit a three pointer to beat UConn. That is not a misprint. He is now 2 for 2 in his career. He said he set a preseason goal to make a three pointer this year, but he never said his goal was to hit one to win the game.
-What was more embarrassing, Thursday’s 20 point performance by Saint Louis which included 1 point over an 18 minute span, or the 36 point performance by #6 Michigan St. at Iowa, including 0 points in a 10 minute span? Having watched Michigan St.’s exhibition loss to a Division 2 team, I felt pretty comfortable projecting Michigan St. to finish 3rd in the Big Ten standings behind Indiana and Wisconsin. My logic was that the team was so dependent on Neitzel that if Neitzel had a bad night, the team could lose to anyone. Then along came Raymar Morgan:
Morgan 2007 11.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 96.5 ORtng, 49.6 eFG%
Morgan 2008 18.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 120.3 ORtng,, 60.0 eFG%
Taking essentially the same large volume of shots as last year, Morgan has become a much more efficient player for the Spartans. Part of his high efficiency this year comes from his speed and his ability to leak out for the fastbreak. But Morgan has simply been a much more consistent player across the board this year, scoring in double figures in every game for the Spartans. On the other hand, Goran Suton is also much more efficient this year, but he has been very inconsistent, particularly against the better defensive teams. (Suton posted the big 0 point, 4 rebound game against UCLA.) Still, now that Morgan has become a consistent second option, I figured Michigan St. would be a lock to beat all the lower division teams in the Big Ten this year. But, not so fast my friend. Thanks to Kalin Lucas shooting 0-8 from the field and Neitzle chipping in a 4-14 shooting performance, the Spartans went down to the Hawkeyes.
-As I alluded to in my column earlier in the week, UConn is one three point shooter away from becoming a great team. If you watched UConn against Georgetown, you really saw it all. John Thompson the 3rd opened with a surprising trapping defense at the start of the game. Usually Georgetown stays home and tries to play position defense, but with little fear that Connecticut’s guards would burn them in the corners, Georgetown trapped the ball handler, and left three players at home in the paint. The net result were some early turnovers and an early 9-1 lead for Georgetown. But then Jerome Dyson got in foul trouble and Doug Wiggins came in and #3 quickly went 3 for 3 from 3 point range. Suddenly, Georgetown had to stay honest on the perimeter and Connecticut was back in the game. As odd as it may seem, the best thing that could have happened to UConn was Dyson getting in foul trouble. Unfortunately for the Huskies, Wiggins is not that consistent from long range, but for at least one game, his shooting had a large impact on the Huskies fortunes.
Non-Conference Update
Now that conference play is officially underway in all of the BCS leagues, I thought I would update my summary of the non-conference part of the season. Despite some surprising losses in the last few weeks, the ACC managed to hold its lead in the BCS cup. Here is how the BCS teams performed against other BCS teams:
30-19 .612 ACC
26-21 .553 Big12
15-14 .517 Pac10
19-23 .452 BigEast
17-22 .436 Big10
16-24 .400 SEC
The 73 BCS teams played only 123 total games against each other in the non-conference part of the season. (Yes, there are still a few more games left on the schedule like Duke-St. John’s which I’m not including here.) In other words, the entire non-conference slate was just about equal to two weeks of conference action. That was 246 team games total or 3.4 non-conference BCS opponents per team. On average, ACC teams played the most non-conference BCS opponents.
Avg BCS Opponents by League
4.1 ACC
3.9 Big 12
3.5 Big 10
3.3 SEC
2.9 Pac 10
2.6 Big East
Big East teams obviously fattened up on non-BCS opponents, but when you consider that the Big 10, Pac 10, and Big East play two more conference games than the other leagues, the SEC ends up with the weakest schedule. SEC teams play on average 19.3 BCS games on the season, while Big East teams play 20.6 BCS games.
Ouch
In the non-conference games the BCS teams have suffered 37 “bad losses”. You know the games I’m talking about. These are the games that the die-hard fans always have an excuse about. Player X was injured. Player Y had the flu. Player Z broke up with his girlfriend. But as long as they don’t happen to your team, they are so much fun. I had already tallied 22 of these bad losses last month, but I like them so much, let’s list them all again:
11/17 Alaska Fairbanks 62 Oregon St. 60
12/16 Tennessee Tech 79 Oregon St. 62
11/10 Mercer 96 Southern California 81
12/01 Harvard 62 Michigan 51
11/25 St. Peter's 65 Rutgers 58
11/07 Gardner Webb 84 Kentucky 68
12/30 Tennessee St. 60 Illinois 58
12/01 Centenary 70 Texas Tech 66
11/30 Louisiana Monroe 72 Iowa 67
12/22 American 67 Maryland 59
12/30 Montana St. 60 Oregon St. 59
11/18 New Orleans 65 North Carolina St. 63
12/12 New Orleans 67 Colorado 65
12/22 Oakland 68 Oregon 62
11/23 Rider 82 Penn St. 73
12/21 Rider 61 Rutgers 57
11/09 Belmont 86 Cincinnati 75
11/19 Belmont 85 Alabama 83
12/19 Wofford 69 Purdue 66
01/07 Robert Morris 57 Boston College 51
12/22 Appalachian St. 74 Arkansas 67
11/24 Utah St. 75 Iowa 6211/24 North Carolina A&T 96 DePaul 93
11/09 NC Greensboro 83 Georgia Tech 74
01/05 NC Asheville 61 South Carolina 58
12/08 Stephen F. Austin 66 Oklahoma 62
12/05 Western Kentucky 69 Nebraska 62
11/24 Western Kentucky 73 Michigan 69
11/14 North Texas 82 Oklahoma St. 73
12/20 East Tennessee St. 76 Georgia 58
11/24 Brown 73 Northwestern 67
11/17 Siena 79 Stanford 67
12/15 Niagara 77 St. John's 73
12/20 Oral Roberts 74 Oklahoma St. 59
11/18 Winthrop 79 Georgia Tech 73
12/29 Winthrop 76 Miami FL 70
11/14 Sam Houston St. 56 Texas Tech 54
12/15 South Alabama 71 Mississippi St. 67
-How great did things work out for Gardner Webb? They got a ton of early season publicity before everyone figured out that Kentucky was overrated.
-Oregon St. lost to Alaska-Fairbanks (not Division 1) and Tennessee Tech (4-11, RPI over 300). After those two games, the loss to Montana St. barely registers as embarrassing.
-It is bad enough to lose early in the year, see Mercer over USC. But how do you excuse late December games? How does Illinois lose its final non-conference game to Tennessee St.? Pomeroy had them as a 99% favorite prior to the game. And what about the January losses by Boston College and South Carolina? Now that’s how you crush morale prior to the conference season.
Look, I love a lot of these small conference teams. Winthrop has already proven it can be an NCAA giant killer, and you can do a lot worse than watching Western Kentucky tangle with South Alabama in the Sun Belt. (The team’s played last Saturday and South Alabama won by 4 at home.) But the fact is, these teams all play in RPI killing conferences. South Alabama could win all its remaining games and with a little bad luck end up with 0 RPI Top 100 wins. No, you need to play in a conference with some depth to have a legitimate shot at a BCS berth.
Mid-Major Wins to Brag About
CUSA
11/15 Memphis 63 Oklahoma 53
11/16 Memphis 81 Connecticut 70
12/04 Memphis 62 Southern California 58
12/19 Memphis 79 Cincinnati 69
12/22 Memphis 85 Georgetown 71
12/29 Memphis 76 Arizona 63
11/09 Tulane 77 Auburn 62
12/21 Tulane 70 Georgia 69
12/22 Tulane 79 St. John's 71
12/01 UAB 73 Cincinnati 54
12/15 UAB 79 Kentucky 76
12/08 East Carolina 75 North Carolina St. 69
11/25 Central Florida 70 Penn St. 59
01/07 Tulsa 81 Colorado 68
12/18 Houston 83 Kentucky 69
Memphis has been a juggernaut, but they aren’t the only CUSA team to make some noise this year against BCS competition.
A10
12/12 Xavier 64 Cincinnati 59
11/24 Xavier 80 Indiana 65
12/31 Xavier 103 Kansas St. 77
01/03 Xavier 108 Virginia 70
01/06 Xavier 80 Auburn 57
11/16 Rhode Island 74 South Florida 67
12/04 Rhode Island 77 Providence 60
12/08 Rhode Island 91 Syracuse 89
12/08 Dayton 70 Louisville 65
12/29 Dayton 80 Pittsburgh 55
12/12 Massachusetts 83 Boston College 80
11/28 Massachusetts 107 Syracuse 100
11/29 Charlotte 63 Wake Forest 59
01/09 Charlotte 82 Clemson 72
12/01 Saint Joseph's 79 Penn St. 67
01/03 Richmond 52 Virginia Tech 49
Xavier has beaten almost as many BCS teams as Memphis, and is very deserving of their Top 25 ranking. And when you look at this list, you can see why people are saying that the A10 is back.
Horizon
11/21 Butler 79 Michigan 65
11/23 Butler 84 Virginia Tech 78
11/24 Butler 81 Texas Tech 71
12/01 Butler 65 Ohio St. 46
12/15 Butler 79 Florida St. 68
11/17 Cleveland St. 69 Florida St. 68
11/09 Cleveland St. 73 South Florida 70
12/15 Illinois Chicago 85 DePaul 80
NCAA veterans Wright St. and Valparaiso didn’t bother to chip in any non-conference BCS wins, but Butler’s cleaning house for this league.
WCC
11/24 Gonzaga 82 Virginia Tech 64
12/01 Gonzaga 85 Connecticut 82
01/05 Gonzaga 75 Georgia 67
11/20 St. Mary's 99 Oregon 87
12/01 St. Mary's 85 Seton Hall 70
12/29 San Diego 81 Kentucky 72
Gonzaga’s profile is not as overwhelming as in some years. But St. Mary’s emergence could be great for the league.
MVC
12/05 Drake 79 Iowa St. 44
12/14 Drake 56 Iowa 51
11/09 Creighton 74 DePaul 62
11/24 Creighton 74 Nebraska 62
11/14 Bradley 65 Iowa St. 56
11/23 Bradley 67 Iowa 56
12/08 Illinois St. 62 Cincinnati 52
11/27 Northern Iowa 61 Iowa St. 48
11/23 Southern Illinois 63 Mississippi St. 49
12/19 Wichita St. 67 Louisiana St. 47
Everyone plays a good schedule and everyone is contributing to league RPI. But is the league too balanced this year?
MWC
11/09 New Mexico 54 Colorado 47
12/15 New Mexico 80 Texas Tech 63
12/30 Nevada Las Vegas 81 Minnesota 64
12/08 Wyoming 73 Colorado 64
11/23 Brigham Young 78 Louisville 76
12/22 Utah 67 California 65
11/15 Colorado St. 69 Oregon St. 56
Not quite the glory days for the MWC, but this league is in much better shape than the WAC.
MAC
12/12 Ohio 61 Maryland 55
12/19 Ohio 71 St. John's 69
11/25 Miami OH 67 Mississippi St. 60
12/20 Miami OH 61 Illinois 58
11/11 Bowling Green 69 Cincinnati 67
11/13 Buffalo 76 South Florida 69
12/15 Central Michigan 78 Michigan 67
Miami (OH) probably played too tough a schedule. They have some nice wins (including Xavier which I didn’t list here), but with 7 losses already, Miami could have a tough road to an at-large bid.
CAA
11/22 George Mason 87 Kansas St. 77
11/25 George Mason 69 South Carolina 68
12/02 Virginia Commonwealth 85 Maryland 76
12/16 Old Dominion 72 Virginia Tech 69
The CAA may not be deep enough to get multiple bids this year.
These mid-major teams may have other important games on their resume, but come tournament time, these wins over BCS teams will be huge.