Baseball Brackets

I love printable PDF brackets. Here are the upcoming college baseball conference tournaments:

8 Teams, Double Elimination
SEC Tournament Subtle Point: Notice that the upper and lower bracket undefeated teams flip (the winners of Games 7 & 8 flip). This helps reduce the number of redundant games.
Conference USA Tournament
Big East Tournament
Sun Belt Tournament
Southern Conference Tournament (includes bonus opening round games)

8 Teams, Two Round Robin Tournaments
ACC Tournament
Big 12 Tournament

6 Teams, 2 Byes, Double Elimination
MVC Tournament
MWC Tournament
Big Ten Tournament

6 Teams, Double Elimination
Big South Tournament (includes bonus opening round games)
CAA Tournament

Championship Series
The WCC pits its first and second place teams in a weekend series. This year San Diego faces Pepperdine.

No Tournament
Long Beach St. got some nice publicity from Paul Goydos during The Players Championship, but they don’t believe in playing conference tournaments out west. Oh well, if we peruse the Big West schedule there are plenty of good games including Long Beach St. vs Cal St. Fullerton. Similarly, the Pac10 has some solid bubble teams finishing out the regular season.

ESPN’s college baseball coverage is one of the few things that isn’t “insider only” yet. Check out Jeremy Mills columns if you want a nice summary of weekend action. He also runs some bubble projections. Here was an earlier bracket projection. Baseball America has a more recent projection and some good coverage overall. As you know, I’m always stumping for Basketball Prospectus. And I’d do the same for Baseball Prospectus, except that the college baseball coverage requires a subscription.

Baseball’s championship week isn’t nearly as fun as basketball’s championship week, but it can still be a fun time. For example a team like Coastal Carolina is essentially like Memphis in basketball. They are far and away the best team in the Big South, and they’ll get a good tournament seed. But if they falter in the conference tournament, someone loses an at-large bid. That always makes for fun scoreboard watching.

Meanwhile, the SEC could send 9 teams to the NCAA tournament, despite only 8 teams qualifying for the SEC tournament. When a league is that deep, in a sport as unpredictable as baseball, you have a recipe for a great tournament.

Ouch

Associated Press, May 8, 2008 - 3:01 PM

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - West Virginia University officials say basketball coach Bob Huggins has been taken to a hospital in Charlotte, N.C., for precautionary reasons after tripping on an airport tarmac and hitting his head on the pavement.

Athletic director Ed Pastilong says Huggins had a bump on his head, and never lost consciousness.

Pastilong says Huggins and other athletic department staff flew to Charlotte on Thursday morning for a Mountaineer Athletic Club event. After Huggins got off the plane, he was checking his cell phone messages when he tripped over a cone on the tarmac and hit his head.

Pro-Sports Filler

Unless you are a potted plant in Tom Crean’s office, we’re in the quiet period on the college sports calendar. The major coaching vacancies have been filled, the early entry deadline has passed, and we are left to wait for some of the early entrants to remove their names from the draft list.

(By the way I’m thrilled as a college basketball fan that Tyler Hansbrough and Darren Collison are coming back next year. After Collison performed so poorly against Memphis, I’m glad to see him come back. And as much as I root against Hansbrough in the regular season, his intensity and energy are a perfect reflection of what college basketball is all about.)

No, instead we’ve come to the time of the year when I take a casual peak at the NBA. And despite numerous columns reporting how this is the greatest year of NBA basketball in recent memory, I’m just not seeing it. Other than a handful of great endings (West jumper, Butler lay-up, Duncan three pointer), the slate of games has been ridiculously predictable. Jason Kidd was slow just like everyone said. Shaq didn’t have enough left in the tank just like everyone said. Tracy McGrady lost again in the first round. And the teams seeded 1-4 won every single first round series. “The NBA, where predictability happens.”

But wait a minute, didn’t I praise the Final Four that included all 1 seeds? Yes, but that’s because the Final Four produced three great games where I had no idea who would win. The second round of the NBA playoffs has had no more drama than the first round. The second round has opened up with the better seeds taking a 2-0 advantage in every series and again there is little drama.

Sadly, it isn’t a new trend for the favored team to keep winning in these NBA playoff series. The NBA playoffs do a fabulous job of determining the best team at the expense of a potential Cinderella. As Charles Barkley has said numerous times, the best team might not win a five game series, but they’ll usually win a seven game series. While the NCAA tournament does a horrible job of picking the best team in the country (great teams can often lose one game), the NBA model often results in the favored teams eventually crushing all hope of an upset.

That’s all fine and good as long as there is some similarity in quality between the very best teams so there is some uncertainty about the best team. And at the start of the playoffs, we thought we had that. In fact, all 8 Western Conference teams looked legit, with 4-5 Eastern Conference teams looking pretty good too. But after a month of NBA playoff basketball, instead of looking forward to future potential match-ups, things have become all too clear: The Lakers are the best team in the NBA. After acquiring Gasol, they were the most dominant team in the regular season, and after crushing in 6 straight playoff games, it is hard to picture anyone from the East, or even the New Orleans / San Antonio winner slowing this team down. (Those brutal Boston – Cleveland games are particularly disheartening.)

So since the NBA has taken only 3 weeks to crush all my enthusiasm (Chris Paul and Dwight Howard notwithstanding), let’s move on to the NFL. I loved the shortened draft. It was almost watchable. Normally I sit around waiting, and waiting, and waiting for my team to pick. This year, with my Vikings trading out of the first round, I flipped it on as a casual viewer and I was still hooked. Nice job NFL.

The Vikings pre-draft trade for DE Jared Allen received mostly positive reviews, but I have a few comments on it.

1) The coaching staff must have a lot of faith in Tarvaris Jackson because Brad Childress has basically put himself in a position where he’s either going to win with Jackson or get fired.

2) I have no idea which of those two things will happen.

3) I feel a lot better about the trade after Jacksonville traded a virtually equivalent package of picks to draft rookie DE Derrick Harvey. Would you rather trade a bunch of picks for an untested rookie or for the NFL’s leading sack-getter in 2008? (OK, the Vikings also had to pay a lot more, but they had the cap room for it.)

4) I hear some minor criticism that Allen is often out of position against the run, and isn’t the most complete DE in the NFL. I still don’t care. Last year the Vikings were great against the run and opponents often abandoned the run for a highly successful, all-pass strategy. The issue was that no one on the Vikings could lay a hand on the QB and that teams could pass with impunity. Even if Jared Allen was so weak against the run that he could only play in obvious passing situations, he would still be a worthwhile acquisition because he fills such a glaring weakness for the team.

5) Dimitrius Underwood et al. One of a long line of failed DE’s drafted in the first round of the NFL by the Vikings. Hey, maybe Derrick Harvey will be a star, but you can only fail at drafting a DE so many times.

Coach Rankings Part 2

Yesterday, I explained the concept of my coach rankings. Today I provide the detailed numbers for each conference.

Big East      Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
Connecticut   Jim Calhoun       0.91  1.96  0.52  3.39  
Louisville    Rick Pitino       0.91  1.09  0.46  2.46  
Georgetown    John Thompson III 0.84  1.27  0.22  2.33  
Pittsburgh    Jamie Dixon       0.44  2.04 -0.17  2.32  
Syracuse      Jim Boeheim       0.93  0.82  0.30  2.04  
Villanova     Jay Wright        0.92  0.91  0.15  1.99  
Notre Dame    Mike Brey         0.68  0.33 -0.12  0.89  
St. John's    Norm Roberts      0.23 -0.23    
West Virginia Bob Huggins             1.32 -0.47   
South Florida Stan Heath              0.35  0.40   
DePaul        Jerry Wainwright       -0.09  0.07   
Cincinnati    Mick Cronin             0.20    
Seton Hall    Bobby Gonzalez          0.06    
Rutgers       Fred Hill      
Providence    Keno Davis      
Marquette     Buzz Williams

Recent Hires: Keno Davis has zero NCAA wins, but one very shiny national coach of the year trophy. Buzz Williams has only one (moderately successful) year of head coaching experience. He was a serious downgrade for Marquette.

Hot Seat: Norm Roberts dodged the hot seat this year, but he needs to make the tournament.

ACC            Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
North Carolina Roy Williams      1.41  2.47  0.55  4.43  
Duke           Mike Krzyzewski   1.80  2.33 -0.34  3.79  
Georgia Tech   Paul Hewitt       1.02  0.43  0.29  1.73  
Maryland       Gary Williams     0.69  0.50  0.47  1.66  
Boston College Al Skinner        0.14  1.42 -0.24  1.32  
Clemson        Oliver Purnell    0.20  0.55 -1.04 -0.30  
Miami          Frank Haith       0.33  0.24    
Virginia Tech  Seth Greenberg    0.32  0.23    
Florida State  Leonard Hamilton  0.84 -0.69    
Virginia       Dave Leitao             0.24    
NC State       Sidney Lowe      
Wake Forest    Dino Gaudio

Recent Hires: Dino Gaudio has some very talented young players and a great chance to prove himself in the coming years.

Hot Seat: Leonard Hamilton has clearly recruited a lot of talent to Florida St., but his teams can't seem to put it together.

Big 12        Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
Kansas        Bill Self         1.57  2.19  0.25  4.00  
Texas         Rick Barnes       1.02  2.14 -0.07  3.09  
Baylor        Scott Drew        0.50  0.03    
Missouri      Mike Anderson           0.42  0.45   
Iowa State    Greg McDermott          0.50 -0.44   
Texas A&M     Mark Turgeon            0.44    
Colorado      Jeff Bzdelik            0.31    
Oklahoma      Jeff Capel III          0.31    
Nebraska      Doc Sadler              0.22    
Oklahoma St   Travis Ford            -0.18    
Kansas State  Frank Martin      
Texas Tech    Pat Knight      

Recent Hires: I think Travis Ford will be fine at Oklahoma St., but you usually do not get hired after you narrowly miss the NCAA tournament.

Hot Seat: Frank Martin doesn't have Beasley anymore. Can he hang onto the job?

Big 10         Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
Ohio State     Thad Matta        1.13  1.45  0.32  2.90  
Michigan State Tom Izzo          1.03  1.09  0.72  2.84  
Wisconsin      Bo Ryan           0.55  2.02  0.13  2.70  
Illinois       Bruce Webber      0.42  1.42  0.41  2.25  
Penn State     Ed DeChellis      0.04  0.03    
Northwestern   Bill Carmody      0.00 -0.02    
Minnesota      Tubby Smith             1.77 -0.05   
Purdue         Matt Painter            1.23 -0.13   
Indiana        Tom Crean               1.07 -0.15   
Michigan       John Beilein            0.55    
Iowa           Todd Lickliter          0.47

Recent Hires: Tom Crean will have his work cut out for him, but he can get it done at Indiana.

Hot Seat: Ed DeChellis, Bill Carmody, nothing new here.

Pac 10        Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
UCLA          Ben Howland       1.10  1.90  0.67  3.68  
Arizona       Lute Olson        0.88  1.49 -0.14  2.22  
Washington    Lorenzo Romar     0.81  0.88 -0.46  1.23  
Oregon        Ernie Kent        0.44  0.39 -0.07  0.76  
Arizona State Herb Sendek             0.61  0.09   
USC           Tim Floyd               1.12    
California    Mike Montgomery              -1.14
Washington St Tony Bennett      
Stanford      Johnny Dawkins      
Oregon State  Craig Robinson

Recent Hires: In his last stint in the Pac10, Mike Mongomery was dominant in the regular season and struggled in the tournament. Johnny Dawkins looks to prove that Duke assistants are better than people think. Craig Robinson needs to work a miracle.

SEC            Coach             RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
Florida        Billy Donovan     1.31  1.57  0.71  3.58  
Alabama        Mark Gottfried    0.81  0.48 -0.10  1.19  
Vanderbilt     Kevin Stallings   0.43  0.74  0.01  1.18  
Mississippi St Rick Stansbury    0.60  1.01 -0.53  1.09  
Georgia        Dennis Felton     0.34  0.07 -0.30  0.12  
Auburn         Jeff Lebo         0.31 -0.38    
Tennessee      Bruce Pearl             1.77  0.01   
LSU            Trent Johnson           0.82  0.09   
Kentucky       Billy Gillispie         0.86 -0.02   
Arkansas       John Pelphrey           0.07    
South Carolina Darrin Horn            -0.06    
Mississippi    Andy Kennedy           -0.21    

Recent Hires: Trent Johnson is a proven winner and a great hire by LSU. Believe it or not, Darrin Horn actually recruited some talent to Western Kentucky, otherwise his regular season rating would be higher. South Carolina hopes he can recruit in the SEC.

Hot Seat: Jeff Lebo needs to show some signs of progress. Dennis Felton may have saved his job with an SEC tournament win. Still, what does it say that his team played better when they did not have time to practice?

Notable Non-BCS  Coach           RECR  REG   PASE  TOT
Memphis     CUSA John Calipari   0.90  2.02  0.20  3.12  
Gonzaga      WCC Mark Few        0.35  1.99 -0.17  2.17  
Xavier       A10 Sean Miller     0.28  0.84  0.47  1.59  
S. Ill.      MVC Chris Lowery    0.02  1.31  0.05  1.38  
UNLV         MWC Lon Kruger      0.24  0.62  0.32  1.18  
George Mason CAA Jim Larranaga   0.00  0.36  0.66  1.02  
Nevada       WAC Mark Fox        0.00  1.22 -0.20  1.02  
Arkansas St   SB John Brady            0.65  0.28   
Saint Joes   A10 Phil Martelli   0.05  1.11 -0.34  0.83  
Davidson     Sth Bob McKillop    0.00  0.33  0.46  0.78  
UAB         CUSA Mike Davis            0.16  0.56   
Pacific       BW Bob Thomason    0.00  0.41  0.19  0.60  
Saint Louis  A10 Rick Majerus          0.79 -0.33   
G. Wash.     A10 Karl Hobbs      0.09  0.58 -0.22  0.45  
Creighton    MVC Dana Altman     0.11  0.75 -0.42  0.43  
Utah State   WAC Stew Morrill    0.00  0.48 -0.14  0.34  
Wichita St   MVC Gregg Marshall        0.31  0.02   
Temple       A10 Fran Dunphy           0.58 -0.36   
Belmont     ASun Rick Byrd       0.00  0.19 -0.04  0.15  
Oral Roberts Sum Scott Sutton    0.01  0.23 -0.14  0.10  
Wright State Hor Brad Brownell         0.51 -0.42   
New Mexico   MWC Steve Alford          0.27 -0.21   
Charlotte    A10 Bobby Lutz      0.29  0.09 -0.35  0.02  

Coach Rankings Part 1

Although I've discussed this at length before, let's stick to the numbers. The perception of the top coaches is mostly based on NCAA tournament appearances and wins. Here are the coaches who have the most appearances plus wins in the last 10 years (NCAA tournaments 1999-2008).

NCAA Appearances – Wins, Coach - School
10 – 28, Roy Williams - North Carolina
10 – 26, Mike Krzyzewski - Duke
10 – 24, Tom Izzo - Michigan State
10 – 22, Bill Self - Kansas
10 – 16, Rick Barnes - Texas
9 – 22, Billy Donovan - Florida
9 – 17, Tubby Smith - Minnesota
9 – 15, Lute Olson - Arizona
9 – 9, Mark Few - Gonzaga
8 – 22, Jim Calhoun - Connecticut
8 – 9, Bob Huggins - West Virginia
7 – 17, Gary Williams - Maryland
7 – 11, Jim Boeheim - Syracuse
7 – 10, Bo Ryan - Wisconsin
6 – 17, Ben Howland - UCLA
6 – 12, Thad Matta - Ohio State
6 – 10, Bruce Webber - Illinois
6 – 8, Mike Montgomery - California
6 – 7, Jay Wright - Villanova
6 – 6, Al Skinner - Boston College
6 – 5, Mike Brey - Notre Dame
5 – 12, John Calipari - Memphis
5 – 9, Rick Pitino - Louisville
5 – 7, John Thompson III - Georgetown
5 – 7, Bruce Pearl - Tennessee
5 – 6, Ernie Kent - Oregon
5 – 6, Jamie Dixon - Pittsburgh
5 – 6, Paul Hewitt - Georgia Tech
5 – 5, Mark Gottfried - Alabama
5 – 5, Herb Sendek - Arizona State
5 – 5, Tom Crean - Indiana
4 – 7, Mike Davis - UAB
4 – 6, John Brady - Arkansas State

My rankings evaluate how coaches obtain these appearances and wins. Is it through recruiting? Is it through player development and by earning a high seed in the regular season. Or is it by exceeding expectations in the tournament?

Let’s start with coaches that exceed expectations in the tournament. Based on past NCAA tournament data, here are the wins expected for each seed.

ExpWins - Seed
3.42 - 1
2.41 - 2
1.82 - 3
1.49 - 4
1.15 - 5
1.24 - 6
0.88 - 7
0.67 - 8
0.58 - 9
0.64 - 10
0.49 - 11
0.50 - 12
0.25 - 13
0.18 - 14
0.04 - 15
0.00 - 16

This spring I discovered that ESPN also uses this concept. ESPN calls it PASE or Performance Against Seed Expectations. Here are the coaches with the highest PASE in the last 10 years, averaged over the number of NCAA appearances, with a minimum of three NCAA appearances.

PASE Coach -School
0.72 Tom Izzo - Michigan State
0.71 Billy Donovan - Florida
0.67 Ben Howland - UCLA
0.66 Jim Larranaga - George Mason
0.56 Mike Davis - UAB
0.55 Roy Williams - North Carolina
0.52 Jim Calhoun - Connecticut
0.47 Sean Miller - Xavier
0.47 Gary Williams - Maryland
0.46 Rick Pitino - Louisville

Jim Larranaga and Mike Davis show that if you rarely make the tournament, but then make the Final Four, you look like a good tournament coach.

PASE Coach -School
-1.14 Mike Montgomery - California
-1.04 Oliver Purnell - Clemson
-0.53 Rick Stansbury - Mississippi State
-0.47 Bob Huggins - West Virginia
-0.46 Lorenzo Romar - Washington
-0.44 Greg McDermott - Iowa State
-0.42 Dana Altman - Creighton
-0.42 Brad Brownell - Wright State
-0.36 Fran Dunphy - Temple
-0.35 Bobby Lutz - Charlotte

California is getting a good regular season coach, but Mike Montgomery had some colossal tournament flops before he left Stanford for the NBA. Oliver Purnell took Dayton to the tournament as a 4 seed and 11 seed and took Clemson as a 5 seed, but has won zero tournament games. Rick Stansbury has taken Mississippi St. to the tournament five times in the last decade, but he has never advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Bob Huggins improved his numbers with a deep tournament run this year. In the last decade, Fran Dunphy took Penn to the tournament 6 times and Temple once, but he does not have a tournament win to show for it.

Some coaches earn their NCAA tournament wins and appearances through recruiting.
I ran a regression to estimate the impact of talent, looking within coaches over time. Not surprisingly, McDonald's All-Americans and upperclassmen that were top 100 recruits had the biggest impact on success. Based on these regressions I assigned a value to each type of recruit. I also lowered the value of McDonald's All-Americans based on the fact that most leave early for the NBA. With these numerical evaluations, I assigned a value to each recruiting class for the last 9 years. I only evaluated coaches at their current school, and I threw out the first year in the current job. Based on these numbers, the top recruiters are:

RECR Coach - School
1.80 Mike Krzyzewski - Duke
1.57 Bill Self - Kansas
1.41 Roy Williams - North Carolina
1.31 Billy Donovan - Florida
1.13 Thad Matta - Ohio State
1.10 Ben Howland - UCLA
1.03 Tom Izzo - Michigan State
1.02 Rick Barnes - Texas
1.02 Paul Hewitt - Georgia Tech
0.93 Jim Boeheim - Syracuse

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated had a great article pointing out that Coach K gets a lot of McDonald's All-Americans, but the causality may be wrong. His recruits may be called McDonald's All-Americans simply because they decided to go to Duke, not because they are really top 20 players. If this is true, you may want to lower Coach K's recruiting rank.

Also, according to my evaluation, recruits aren't everything. Tom Izzo has enough of a tournament coaching advantage (see above) over someone like Bill Self, that he can make up for having less talented recruits. (The key problem for Izzo in recent years is that he has struggled in the regular season.)

Here are the worst recruiters at a BCS school for at least 4 years (i.e. minimum 3 recruiting classes.)

RECR Coach - School
0.00 Bill Carmody - Northwestern
0.04 Ed DeChellis - Penn State
0.14 Al Skinner - Boston College
0.20 Oliver Purnell - Clemson
0.23 Norm Roberts - St. John's
0.31 Jeff Lebo - Auburn
0.32 Seth Greenberg - Virginia Tech
0.33 Frank Haith - Miami
0.34 Dennis Felton - Georgia
0.42 Bruce Webber - Illinois

The worst of the worst recruiters tend to lose their jobs at about the 3 year mark, so I should add that Greenberg, Haith, Felton, and Webber are hardly horrible. In fact, the only way you keep your job if you can't recruit at the elite level is by knowing how to coach.

You can also earn wins and appearances during the regular season by developing players and earning a high seed. For the last 6 years, I take expected wins based on seed and subtract off expected wins based on talent and get regular season performance. (I only have 9 years of recruiting data, and I can only evaluate each team's seniors for the last 6 years, so I can only make this calculation for the last 6 years.)

REG Coach - School
2.47 Roy Williams - North Carolina
2.33 Mike Krzyzewski - Duke
2.19 Bill Self - Kansas
2.14 Rick Barnes - Texas
2.04 Jamie Dixon - Pittsburgh
2.02 John Calipari - Memphis
2.02 Bo Ryan - Wisconsin
1.99 Mark Few - Gonzaga
1.96 Jim Calhoun - Connecticut
1.90 Ben Howland - UCLA

Not surprisingly, the best coaches at winning in the regular season were also some of the best recruiters. (Players like to play for a winning coach.) The interesting feature here is that Jamie Dixon and Bo Ryan show up on this list even though they weren't on the recruiting list. Even with less talent, these coaches have been consistent winners in the regular season.

REG Coach - School
-0.69 Leonard Hamilton - Florida State
-0.38 Jeff Lebo - Auburn
-0.23 Norm Roberts - St. John's
-0.21 Andy Kennedy - Mississippi
-0.18 Travis Ford - Oklahoma State
-0.09 Jerry Wainwright - DePaul
-0.02 Bill Carmody - Northwestern
0.03 Scott Drew - Baylor
0.03 Ed DeChellis - Penn State
0.06 Bobby Gonzalez - Seton Hall

On the flip side, Leonard Hamilton has turned some great recruiting classes into zero NCAA tournament appearances at Florida St. I also give less weight to success at non-BCS schools based on the fact that most coaches making the transition fail. Even so, I find it a little surprising that Travis Ford earned the Oklahoma St. job after FAILING to qualify for the NCAA tournament with a talented team.

REC , REG , PASE , TOT, School - Coach
1.41 , 2.47 , 0.55 , 4.43, North Carolina - Roy Williams
1.57 , 2.19 , 0.25 , 4.00, Kansas - Bill Self
1.80 , 2.33 , -0.34 , 3.79, Duke - Mike Krzyzewski
1.10 , 1.90 , 0.67 , 3.68, UCLA - Ben Howland
1.31 , 1.57 , 0.71 , 3.58, Florida - Billy Donovan
0.91 , 1.96 , 0.52 , 3.39, Connecticut - Jim Calhoun
0.90 , 2.02 , 0.20 , 3.12, Memphis - John Calipari
1.02 , 2.14 , -0.07 , 3.09, Texas - Rick Barnes
1.13 , 1.45 , 0.32 , 2.90, Ohio State - Thad Matta
1.03 , 1.09 , 0.72 , 2.84, Michigan State - Tom Izzo

This list should look a lot like the list of wins and appearances at the start of this post. I've simply broken apart where the success comes from. Bill Self is a star recruiter; John Calipari fattens up in the regular season and earns a high seed and better NCAA tournament path; and Tom Izzo makes his money by exceeding expectations in the tournament.

The above number says Bill Self should average 4.0 wins plus appearances per year. But Bill Self's numbers in the initial list were 10 appearances and 22 wins, or 3.2 per year. The key difference is that the recruiting figure is ONLY for Kansas. This does not include Self’s recruiting at Tulsa and Illinois which was at a slightly lower level. The regular season and tournament figures are derived from all of Bill Self’s jobs. Even though he only earned 3.2 wins plus appearances per year, if he stays at Kansas, this model suggests that Bill Self should average 4.0 wins plus appearances in the future.

For someone like Coach K at the same school, the discrepancy between the actual 3.6 wins and 3.8 wins is explained by the different time horizons for the various factors. I evaluate RECR for 9 years, REG for the last 6 years, and PASE for the last 10 years.
Differences will also occur when there is an unusual amount of early entry at a school. I currently do not penalize coaches for early entry.

I'll be back later with a conference by conference breakdown.