Saturday, December 22, 2007
Shockingly, despite Georgetown’s reputation as a half-court team, Georgetown was at its best against Memphis when the game was played at a faster tempo. Georgetown broke full-court pressure for at least three lay-ups and scored more lay-ups by getting 7 steals against Memphis, including a sick steal by Chris Wright who robbed Derrick Rose when Rose tried to use the cross-over to get past him. But in the half-court, aside from a handful of backdoor cuts in the first half, Georgetown looked pedestrian. Georgetown was 3-14 from 3 point range, Hibbert was 3-8 in the paint with 3 turnovers, and on most of Georgetown’s trips into the paint, Georgetown was fouled. This should have been a good thing except that Georgetown shot only 13-23 from the free throw line.
The net result was that Memphis was actually the first team to not only beat Georgetown, but to beat them by shutting down Georgetown in the half-court. The defensive pressure started at the end of the first half, and resulted in Memphis outscoring Georgetown by 22 points down the stretch. The key was that Memphis was able to defend Georgetown straight up. Dorsey was strong enough to hold position against Hibbert and by staying tight on Georgetown’s guards, the Half-court Hoyas looked ordinary. Not many teams are able to do that, and if Memphis can play that kind of defense in the Elite Eight, they can finally break through into the Final Four.
-Bruce Pearl got called for an out-of-the coaches violation that almost cost Tennessee the game against Xavier. I don’t agree with Doug Gottlieb that the officials need to let the rule slide in late game situations, but I do agree that this is a dumb rule to be emphasizing this year. My guess is that this will cost a team in the NCAA tournament and then the rule will be de-emphasized again next year.
-I can’t believe how little press Pittsburgh got in the pre-season polls. The same thing goes with Wisconsin. These teams may not have the biggest high school stars, but they always win and the Pittsburgh-Duke game was no shocker. From my perspective the Wisconsin-Duke game was the shocking outcome, and I'm a big believer in Duke this year.
-The Big Ten continues to struggle. Since I updated the non-conference results in my last post, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan have all lost to team's they were expected to beat. This really looks like a 3 bid year for the Big Ten.
-Posts continue to be sporadic with the holidays, but I hope to have more to say in the New Year. Happy Holidays!
Friday, December 14, 2007
Best Comeback: Villanova defeats LSU after trailing by 21 with 9 minutes left.
Biggest Upset: Mercer defeats USC
Best Coaching Move: Tim Floyd uses the triangle and two to slow down Memphis (but still loses.)
Most Impressive Win: Texas at UCLA
Best Player: DJ Augustin. His impressive 126.6 ORtng isn’t even the best on his own team, but he had one of his best nights (19 points) at UCLA. Scoring in the big game is the sign of a true star.
USC’s loss to Mercer probably won’t matter at the end of the year. But what if USC ends up 9-9 in Pac10 play and 4-6 in the last 10? Then that loss might be the factor that keeps them out of the tournament. Again, it is a long shot, but you never know which games will matter at the end of the year. With this in mind, here’s a snapshot of 22 of the biggest upsets on the season to date:
The Bad Losses
11/17 Alaska Fairbanks 62 Oregon St. 60
11/23 Rider 82 Penn St. 73
11/10 Mercer 96 Southern California 81
11/25 St. Peter's 65 Rutgers 58
11/09 NC Greensboro 83 Georgia Tech 74
11/24 North Carolina A&T 96 DePaul 93
11/07 Gardner Webb 84 Kentucky 68
12/01 Harvard 62 Michigan 51
12/01 Centenary 70 Texas Tech 66
11/30 Louisiana Monroe 72 Iowa 67
11/24 Brown 73 Northwestern 67
12/08 Stephen F. Austin 66 Oklahoma 62
11/17 Siena 79 Stanford 67
11/18 Winthrop 79 Georgia Tech 73
11/14 North Texas 82 Oklahoma St. 73
11/14 Sam Houston St. 56 Texas Tech 54
11/18 New Orleans 65 North Carolina St. 63
12/12 New Orleans 67 Colorado 65
11/09 Belmont 86 Cincinnati 75
11/19 Belmont 85 Alabama 83
12/05 Western Kentucky 69 Nebraska 62
11/24 Western Kentucky 73 Michigan 69
-Doug Gottlieb said at the time that Rider was more talented than Penn St. I’m not quite buying that. But because of Penn St.’s poor defense and good offense, they will definitely be a high variance team.
-Georgia Tech really misses Crittenton and Young, but this team can still be a factor in the ACC.
-What was Michigan thinking playing former coach Tommy Amaker at Harvard?
-Bob Knight felt flu-like symptoms in Texas Tech’s loss at Centenary. But how did he really feel after the game? (What’s the craziest part about the loss? It actually suggests that Bob Knight makes a difference. His team led at halftime, but with Knight no longer on the sidelines in the second half, Texas Tech lost the lead and the game.)
-Is Sam Houston St. really this good? No. Don't look at the RPI yet. Remember Appalachian St. last year? They beat Virginia and Vanderbilt and were #7 in the RPI. Then they lost to Elon and it was all over.
-Is Winthrop really this good? Yes, but this is still a bad loss for Georgia Tech. The sad fact for all of the winners listed above is that they play in conferences that are RPI killers. The Sun Belt is having a better year, but Western Kentucky’s RPI is going to plummet just for playing half the teams in its league. And if the Hilltoppers should lose to some of weaker teams in their league, good night.
For mid-majors on the other hand, wins against BCS teams are priceless. A top 3 finish in a mid-major league coupled with a pair of marquee wins against BCS opponents is often a ticket to the big dance. With that in mind, let's take a look at the mid-major conferences making some noise in the early going:
Mid-Major Wins to Brag About
11/24 Utah St. 75 Iowa 62
12/02 Virginia Commonwealth 85 Maryland 76
11/22 George Mason 87 Kansas St. 77
11/25 George Mason 69 South Carolina 68
11/11 Bowling Green 69 Cincinnati 67
11/13 Buffalo 76 South Florida 69
12/12 Ohio 61 Maryland 55
11/25 Miami OH 67 Mississippi St. 60
11/09 New Mexico 54 Colorado 47
12/08 Wyoming 73 Colorado 64
11/15 Colorado St. 69 Oregon St. 56
11/23 Brigham Young 78 Louisville 76
11/27 Northern Iowa 61 Iowa St. 48
12/08 Illinois St. 62 Cincinnati 52
11/23 Southern Illinois 63 Mississippi St. 49
12/05 Drake 79 Iowa St. 44
12/14 Drake 56 Iowa 51
11/14 Bradley 65 Iowa St. 56
11/23 Bradley 67 Iowa 56
11/09 Creighton 74 DePaul 62
11/24 Creighton 74 Nebraska 62
11/17 Cleveland St. 69 Florida St. 68
11/09 Cleveland St. 73 South Florida 70
11/23 Butler 84 Virginia Tech 78
11/21 Butler 79 Michigan 65
12/01 Butler 65 Ohio St. 46
11/24 Butler 81 Texas Tech 71
11/20 St. Mary's 99 Oregon 87
12/01 St. Mary's 85 Seton Hall 70
11/24 Gonzaga 82 Virginia Tech 64
12/01 Gonzaga 85 Connecticut 82
12/01 Saint Joseph's 79 Penn St. 67
11/29 Charlotte 63 Wake Forest 59
12/08 Dayton 70 Louisville 65
12/12 Massachusetts 83 Boston College 80
11/28 Massachusetts 107 Syracuse 100
11/16 Rhode Island 74 South Florida 67
12/04 Rhode Island 77 Providence 60
12/08 Rhode Island 91 Syracuse 89
12/12 Xavier 64 Cincinnati 59
11/24 Xavier 80 Indiana 65
12/08 East Carolina 75 North Carolina St. 69
12/01 UAB 73 Cincinnati 54
11/09 Tulane 77 Auburn 62
11/25 Central Florida 70 Penn St. 59
11/15 Memphis 63 Oklahoma 53
11/16 Memphis 81 Connecticut 70
12/04 Memphis 62 Southern California 58
Utah St. has very little shot at an at-large bid because the WAC has fallen apart this year. The league remained strong even after the defection of the MWC teams 7 years ago, but things have gone completely wrong this year. The WAC is currently 26th in conference RPI, and the lack of quality wins is a key reason. Other than the win over Iowa listed above, the best win for the conference is probably New Mexico St.’s victory over #116 New Mexico. Uggh.
One factor in the WAC’s struggles may be coaching turnover. There are three new coaches in the WAC this year in Bob Nash at Hawaii, Kerry Rupp at Louisiana Tech, and Marvin Menzies at New Mexico St. While these coaches may need some time to build their programs, other teams are just disappointing. Stew Morrill’s Utah St. team brought back a talented senior guard in Jaycee Carroll, but despite Carroll’s incredibly efficient play (129.6 ORtng while taking 22.9% of his teams shots), Utah St. has a disappointing 5-5 record.
Nevada lost Sessions and Fazekas in the off-season and can be forgiven for a slow WAC start this year, but without them, no one is winning. Consider that last year the league had 5 teams with RPIs in the Top 100. Right now Nevada leads the way at #107. If the WAC teams don’t start winning some non-conference games, they could be a one-bid league with the winner earning a 14 or 15 seed. Ouch.
Better news elsewhere, particularly the Atlantic 10. I’ve already seen several articles touting that the league is back. That A10 still has way too many teams for my liking, but with some very good teams at the top, at least the A10 will be back in the discussion this year.
Finally, Wright St. may have beaten Butler already in Horizon play, but Cleveland St. is the Horizon team picking up the quality non-conference victories.
Again, I can’t promise all of these wins are going to be meaningful, but some of them will turn out to be critical when making decisions on selection Sunday. Any true prognosticator of the tournament field should have the above games emblazoned in their head come March.
Besides the Small Conference teams and Mid-Major teams, the BCS teams also played a few games against each other. Through Friday Dec. 14th, there were 88 non-conference games between BCS teams. To no one’s surprise, the ACC is leading the way in the BCS showdowns.
BCS vs BCS
I should probably break these wins apart by level of quality. After all, a win over Indiana is a lot different from a win over Iowa this year. That said, I still think it is way to early to start drawing conclusions about teams based on the RPI. Consider what we saw last year. The following teams all had non-conference RPIs in the top 30 and none of them made the tournament: Clemson, Florida St., Alabama, Oklahoma St., Utah St., Air Force, Dayton, Bradley, Drexel, and Appalachian St. On the other hand, the following teams all had non-conference RPIs over 90 and still made the tournament: Stanford, USC, Texas, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Virginia.
In other words, there is still a lot to be determined. But for those of you interested in the first 88 games, here's the rest of my early season cheat sheet:
11/28 Maryland 69 Illinois 61
11/19 Georgia Tech 70 Notre Dame 69
11/26 Wake Forest 56 Iowa 47
11/28 Boston College 77 Michigan 64
11/17 Virginia 75 Arizona 72
11/27 Virginia 94 Northwestern 52
11/23 North Carolina St. 63 South Carolina 61
11/25 North Carolina St. 69 Villanova 68
11/23 Florida St. 65 Florida 51
11/27 Florida St. 75 Minnesota 61
12/01 North Carolina 86 Kentucky 77
11/28 North Carolina 66 Ohio St. 55
11/27 Clemson 61 Purdue 58
11/15 Clemson 84 Mississippi St. 82
12/01 Clemson 85 South Carolina 74
12/02 Miami FL 66 St. John's 47
11/18 Miami FL 64 Providence 58
12/13 Miami FL 64 Mississippi St. 58
11/21 Duke 77 Marquette 73
12/08 Duke 95 Michigan 67
11/27 Duke 82 Wisconsin 58
11/20 Duke 79 Illinois 66
11/20 Minnesota 68 Iowa St. 58
11/21 Ohio St. 79 Syracuse 65
12/08 Penn St. 89 Seton Hall 86
11/28 Penn St. 66 Virginia Tech 61
11/21 Illinois 65 Oklahoma St. 49
11/19 Illinois 77 Arizona St. 54
11/17 Wisconsin 78 Colorado 52
11/24 Wisconsin 68 Georgia 49
12/08 Indiana 70 Kentucky 51
11/27 Indiana 83 Georgia Tech 79
11/28 Michigan St. 81 North Carolina St. 58
11/19 Michigan St. 86 Missouri 83
12/08 Georgia 72 Wake Forest 50
11/17 Florida 88 Rutgers 63
11/28 Arkansas 94 Missouri 91
11/23 Tennessee 74 West Virginia 72
11/22 South Carolina 74 Penn St. 67
12/06 South Carolina 68 Providence 67
12/01 Vanderbilt 92 Georgia Tech 79
12/12 Vanderbilt 91 DePaul 85
12/05 Vanderbilt 83 Wake Forest 80
12/09 Kansas St. 82 California 75
11/18 Baylor 68 Notre Dame 64
12/09 Nebraska 63 Rutgers 51
12/02 Nebraska 62 Arizona St. 47
11/30 Iowa St. 71 Oregon St. 64
12/08 Iowa St. 56 Iowa 47
11/19 Oklahoma St. 83 Louisiana St. 77
12/01 Oklahoma St. 96 Washington 71
11/20 Missouri 84 Maryland 70
12/08 Missouri 73 Purdue 63
11/28 Texas A&M 76 Alabama 63
11/21 Texas A&M 77 Washington 63
11/23 Texas A&M 70 Ohio St. 47
12/08 Kansas 84 DePaul 66
11/25 Kansas 76 Arizona 72
12/02 Kansas 59 Southern California 55
11/24 Texas 97 Tennessee 78
12/02 Texas 63 UCLA 61
11/17 DePaul 54 Northwestern 53
11/18 South Florida 68 Florida St. 67
12/05 West Virginia 88 Auburn 59
11/24 Seton Hall 74 Virginia 60
12/08 Pittsburgh 75 Washington 74
12/04 Notre Dame 68 Kansas St. 59
12/06 Villanova 68 Louisiana St. 67
12/01 Providence 98 Boston College 89
11/16 Providence 67 Arkansas 51
12/05 Syracuse 70 Virginia 68
11/23 Syracuse 91 Washington 85
12/08 Marquette 81 Wisconsin 76
11/20 Marquette 91 Oklahoma St. 61
12/05 Georgetown 70 Alabama 60
11/15 Georgetown 74 Michigan 52
11/21 Arizona St. 87 Louisiana St. 84
12/01 California 86 Missouri 72
11/29 Oregon 80 Kansas St. 77
11/30 Washington St. 67 Baylor 64
11/15 Stanford 71 Northwestern 60
12/02 Stanford 67 Colorado 43
11/17 Southern California 85 South Carolina 75
11/29 Southern California 66 Oklahoma 55
12/02 Arizona 78 Texas A&M 67
12/08 Arizona 78 Illinois 72
11/19 UCLA 71 Maryland 59
11/20 UCLA 68 Michigan St. 63
I haven’t been able to adequately rant about how impressive Duke looks to me this season. Duke may be younger and smaller than North Carolina, but they have more McDonald’s All-Americans, and the hype for this team is only getting started. Duke’s also the only team listed above with 4 wins against other BCS teams. Not a bad start for a team that lost in the first round last year. I had Duke at #5 in my preseason tournament predictions, but I felt so embarrassed about this at the time that I simply listed them as one of the Elite Eight teams without revealing their actual rank. I feel a lot better about that prediction today.
Friday, December 7, 2007
I was thrilled to see Pomeroy also started looking at the numbers on Wednesday. He has a nice article that reintroduces his statistical metrics, and while I found that useful, I thought his first look inside this year’s stats was even more insightful.
For instance, who knew Chris Allen was such a shot hog? Now I really want to watch a few more of the Michigan St. games to see what’s behind this development. On the one hand, this could be a huge mistake by a selfish guard. After all, Neitzel, Morgan, and Suton are all off to incredibly efficient starts, and almost every possession should end with one of those three taking a shot. But on the other hand, maybe Allen’s large number of shots are a function of the team. After all, there are no other three point shooters besides Neitzel, and even though Allen is hitting a disappointing 32% of his threes to date, if teams pack the paint or double team Neitzel, Michigan St. is going to need someone to take three point shots. To me the key question is whether Allen is taking natural shots in the offense or forcing shots. That’s something to watch for.
I also didn’t know to watch out for Butler’s Matt Howard and his 126.5 ORtng. He’s obviously getting a lot of easy layups due to his all-star guards Graves and Green who just happen to have ORtngs of 124.4 and 125.2 respectively, but if he can keep defenses honest by providing an inside presence, this team will maintain its lofty poll status.
Of course, my jaw is still dropping over Malcolm Grant’s 128.1 ORtng and clutch baskets in Villanova’s comeback last night, but Grant is only taking 18.2% of Villanova’s possessions while Howard is taking 29.7% of Butlers.
I was also pleased that Pomeroy emphasized my biggest pet peeve in his column. You need to interpret all data within its context. Games are not played in a vacuum, and if you see a weird trend, it helps to watch the games to actually understand what is happening. For example, you need to know volume of shots to know whether efficiency is meaningful. A few weeks ago I flashed up the numbers for last year’s freshman All-Americans. As I said then, Scottie Reynolds efficiency numbers looked pedestrian compared to the others, but when you consider his importance in his team’s offense, the team needed him to take a lot of shots.
One place I differ is I think if you want to summarize the most information in the least amount of data, I’d show PPG and ORtng instead of % of Possessions and the ORtng. You can mostly back out % of Possessions if you have PPG & ORtng and since general college basketball fans can relate to PPG, I think that is a little more natural pair of numbers to examine. The key advantage of % of Possessions is that it isn’t influenced by pace, but whether or not you want to take pace out when summarizing a player is probably a personal decision.
Speaking of pace, I thought I’d take a few moments to look inside this year’s pace statistics (as found on Ken Pomeroy’s statistics pages).
Something is obviously happening in the water in Colorado. Not only does Air Force continue to have one of the slowest paced teams in the country, look what has happened to three of the other local teams:
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
Colorado St. 2007 68.9 93 68.7 92
Colorado St. 2008 61.0 324 62.0 327
Denver 2007 68.0 109 67.3 136
Denver 2008 56.6 341 58.0 339
Colorado 2007 72.8 20 72.7 13
Colorado 2008 60.2 330 63.1 311
Well what’s happening is that two of these teams hired former Air Force coaches. Both Colorado’s Coach Jeff Bzdelik, and Denver’s Coach Joe Scott (at Air Force and more recently Princeton) have always been known for slow paced teams that work the shotclock and try to get a high percentage look. Colorado St. on the other hand is a big surprise. New coach Tim Miles was not known for a slow-it-down approach at North Dakota St. Perhaps he is trying to shorten the game to make things simpler for his young team (which rotates just one senior), or maybe there really is something in the water in Colorado. I would think someone would start a fast pace team in the area, just to attract the high school recruits with something different. Perhaps the VMI coach is available, although even he has toned back his ridiculously fast paced team from last season.
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
VMI 2007 90.7 1 90.9 1
VMI 2008 80.0 3 78.4 7
Like Bzdelik, Todd Lickliter kept possessions down at Butler, and he’s trying to limit them at Iowa. And you can’t blame Lickliter. In the roaring 70 possession game against Wake Forest, Iowa had an offensive efficiency rating of 67.0 and lost by 9 Meanwhile, in the crawling 53 possession win over Northern Iowa, Iowa’s offense had an efficiency rate of 116.1 and Iowa won by 7.
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
Iowa 2007 65.5 221 67.6 126
Iowa 2008 61.1 323 61.0 330
It can take time to change a culture of losing or winning, but it is nice to know that coaches can at least change some things within their first year. For teams that maintained their coach, dramatic change is less likely, but still possible. Both Notre Dame and Texas have played significantly slower this year.
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
Texas 2007 69.7 74 68.5 97
Texas 2008 64.5 285 63.4 306
Notre Dame 2007 70.5 53 71.5 29
Notre Dame 2008 67.6 216 66.6 232
One reason may be that both teams have clamped down on defense. By allowing fewer easy looks, they’ve caused their opponents to hold the ball longer which has slowed down the game. From a defensive efficiency standpoint:
Def Eff Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
Texas 2007 100.5 131 94.6 62
Texas 2008 95.2 105 92.3 75
Notre Dame 2006 104.5 233 98.5 120
Notre Dame 2007 96.2 49 93.0 49
Notre Dame 2008 89.5 44 89.6 56
I was actually under the impression that Notre Dame’s defense was significantly worse last year than these numbers show, but that may have been because of 2006. It also may have had to do with the defensive efficiency rating of 131.8 against Georgetown in the Big East tournament last year. Either way, Notre Dame’s defense is off to a strong start this year including an impressive 81.7 in Monday’s win over Kansas St.
I’ve always been under the impression that strong defense and slow pace are highly correlated, and if you run the raw numbers you do see that trend, but to a lesser degree than I might have expected. In 2007 a 10 possession faster game only decreased the defensive efficiency rating of a team by 1.5 points. That said, most dominant defensive teams do play at a slightly slower pace. (The key exceptions are pressing teams like Tennessee which can cause lots of turnovers and ultra-talented teams like North Carolina.)
On the flip side, the biggest increase in unadjusted pace has occured at Navy and Creighton.
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
Navy 2007 63.9 269 66.2 187
Navy 2008 77.7 12 77.9 8
Creighton 2007 62.4 301 63.6 289
Creighton 2008 70.4 118 74.1 43
Navy has historically been a faster paced team, so this may simply be returning to what Billy Lange does best. Creighton on the other hand, has historically been one of the slowest teams in the country, so perhaps Dana Altman has decided to reinvent himself after a controversial off-season. Here are a few other notable faster teams:
Pace Year Raw Rnk Adj Rnk
W. Virginia 2007 63.6 277 64.1 273
W. Virginia 2008 72.0 75 69.9 133
Kansas St. 2007 67.6 130 66.5 174
Kansas St. 2008 76.7 14 76.3 19
Indiana 2007 64.0 268 65.4 217
Indiana 2008 72.0 77 71.0 93
Duke 2007 66.1 203 65.9 203
Duke 2008 73.0 56 75.0 31
Louisiana St 2007 65.0 240 63.9 279
Louisiana St 2008 70.8 103 73.4 50
Bob Huggins has made West Virginia faster, while Kansas St. has gotten even faster after he left. Indiana is riding Gordon’s skill to play at a faster pace, while Duke’s 8 McDonald’s All-American’s are pushing it at a different level than last season. Finally, LSU has sped up considerably this year now that it no longer has Big Baby Davis to feed in the paint. But after last night’s colossal collapse, LSU probably wishes they had kept the game about 3 possessions shorter.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
On the flip side, this game was all about the emergence of the next great Villanova guard. Freshman Malcolm Grant was already averaging an astounding 1.87 points per shot before tonight. And tonight all he did was score the marjority of his 18 points in the most memorable comeback of the year so far.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Rose Bowl picks Illinois to fill in for Ohio St.
Sugar Bowl picks Georgia to fill in for LSU.
Orange Bowl picks West Virginia.
Fiesta Bowl picks Kansas. Even though this sets up Kansas vs Oklahoma, these two Big 12 teams did not play each other during the regular season, and Stewart Mandel says this is possible.
Sugar Bowl gets stuck with Hawaii.
National Title, One vs Two: Ohio St. vs LSU
Rose Bowl, Pac10 vs At Large: USC vs Illinois
Orange Bowl, ACC vs Big East: Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl, Big 12 vs At Large: Oklahoma vs Kansas
Sugar Bowl, At Large vs At Large: Georgia vs Hawaii
This could be wrong for several reasons.
First, LSU may not be in the national title game. If its Georgia, just flip LSU and Georgia.
Second, if you are the Sugar bowl, and you are stuck with Hawaii, why not just pick Kansas to fill in for LSU. 12-0 Hawaii vs 11-1 Kansas might sound appealing to a certain group of fans. I doubt they would pass on Georgia though.
Third, the Rose Bowl could still choose Georgia or West Virginia or some other surprise team. But if they want to stay part of the BCS and not have the Big 10 seceed, I think they'll have to pick Illinois.
Fourth, Hawaii could still lose tonight. Washington just scored first.
Fifth, Arizona St. could still go to the Fiesta Bowl over Kansas.
If this scenario does unfold, the big loser is Arizona St. who a week ago looked like a lock for the Fiesta Bowl. You know who's watching intently? Purdue. Depending on what happens, they could be playing anywhere.
Oh, and Missouri is trailing too. I immediately thought “LSU is getting in”. Then I flipped over to ABC and you could literally see the wheels turning in Herbstreit’s head. All of a sudden he latched onto it. “LSU deserves to be number 2.”
Let’s look at the other candidates.
Hawaii – Other than Boise St., they have no marquee wins. That’s just not good enough.
Kansas – As I said last week, their best win was 7-5 Texas A&M. That’s just not good enough.
Georgia – They may have a six game winning streak, and a good chance, but they didn’t win the SEC. LSU won the SEC.
Virginia Tech – They have only two losses and won the ACC, but they were blown out by LSU.
USC – They won the Pac 10 and lost to a very bad Stanford team.
Oklahoma – Why no love? They beat Missouri twice, Texas, and lost to two bowl eligible teams.
LSU – Yep, they should get it. The computers are going to love them, but will the voters take the time to think? Or will they just move Georgia up? We’re about to find out. And no matter what happens, the controversy is about to begin.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
College football works in a similar vein. While I find the last three weeks exceptionally fascinating as teams jockey for last minute bowl position while playing all the toughest rivalry games, once the bowls actually get started, there isn't much to discuss. Teams simply show up and play.
That's why I've traditionally taken time off work for championship week, and why for the first time I live blogged championship week last March. On the flip side, I've been an utter failure this week in blogging the Thanksgiving frenzy. And that's too bad. Because a quick look back on the Thanksgiving schedule shows that there was a year's worth of drama unfolding in just a few short days. I start with a look-back at the college football and then the basketball from this weekend.
College Football Wrap-up
Thursday, USC and Arizona St. met with "the Pac-10 title on the line." This marked at least the third time this year this occurred. First was USC-Oregon, then when Arizona St. kept winning, much to everyone's surprise, suddenly the game of the year became Oregon-ASU. Then when Oregon's QB got injured, it suddenly became USC vs ASU. USC prevailed in dominant fashion on Thanksgiving night which actually sets up a possible 4th Pac10 title showdown next week. If Arizona St. loses to Arizona, USC will meet UCLA with the USC/UCLA winner going to the Rose Bowl. The BCS title picture has been crazy all year, but the Pac 10 has been just as crazy.
Friday kicked off with Colorado and Nebraska playing a win-or-go-home game. The winner would go to a bowl, the loser at 5-7 would not be eligible for a bowl. Nebraska gave up a boatload of points yet again which promptly led to Bill Callahan's firing.
Mississippi St. then met Mississippi in the Egg Bowl. Mississippi St. needed a win to ensure a bowl bid, given the large number of eligible conference teams. Coach Sylvester Croom was practially in tears as his team won to improve to 7-5 and lock up a bowl slot.
When I look back on this season, I think just about every week the best game was the SEC game on CBS, just a tremendous schedule of football this year. Next up was Arkansas vs LSU with LSU hoping to go to the National Title Game. Arkansas showed why college football will always be more fun than the pro-game as elite RB McFadden played QB on numerous occassions in an attempt to stump the LSU defense. Arkansas eventually won in Triple OT, and LSU's national title hopes finally came to an end. West Virginia is now the favorite to meet the Big 12 champ in the title game, although I still keep wondering if Ohio St. won't get an influx of votes at the last minute. If Ohio St. hadn't lost so convincingly last year to Florida, they'd have a better chance of jumping West Virginia.
Texas A&M then held off Texas and even though Franchione was forced to resign the next day after a 7-5 season, his victory over Texas knocked Texas out of a BCS bowl game which had to feel good to A&M fans.
Finally, on Friday Night, Hawaii crushed Boise St. and ended Boise St.'s hopes of a BCS repeat. I'm really curious what will happen now if Hawaii loses to Washington (last place in the Pac 10) in the final game of the season. Hawaii is currently 12th in the BCS which would ensure a BCS at large slot in the Sugar Bowl, but a Hawaii loss could open up another BCS slot for the major conferences.
Saturday kicked off with Boston College rolling over Miami. Miami dropped to 5-7 and Miami is no longer eligible for bowl participation after the loss. The story of Miami's season tended to fly under the radar, but I find it somewhat shocking. The Hurricanes were the whole reason for the big ACC expansion a few years ago, and already the program has collapsed to the point where the Hurricanes are not even going to a bowl. Yikes.
Next Virginia Tech met Virginia with the winner advancing to the ACC title game. While Virginia had a great season, Virginia Tech won convincingly and now gets a rematch with Boston College in that title game.
Next Maryland faced NC State. Like the previous day's Nebraska vs Colorado matchup, only the winner would go to a bowl. Maryland was wildly inconsistent this year, but proved to be the better team here winning 37-0.
Next up was Kentucky vs Tennessee. Tennessee needed to win to go to the SEC title game. If Tennessee lost, Georgia would go to the SEC title game. As mentioned above, the SEC game on CBS once again proved to be the most exciting game of the day as Tennessee won in 4 OTs. Georgia may feel upset that they miss out on the SEC title game, but this basically clinched a BCS bid for Georgia since the Bulldogs are now guaranteed to end the year with only 2 losses. I expect Georgia to play in the Orange bowl against the ACC champ. The big loser in this game was probably Florida. Since the SEC can only get two BCS bids and Georgia has all but locked one up, Florida will play in a non-BCS new year's day game. Could we see Ron Zook's Illini face Zook's former school Florida in the Capital One Bowl?
Next up, BYU met Utah with both teams still having a shot at the MWC championship. BYU won its rivalry game and takes the top bowl slot for the MWC.
Wake Forsest beat Vanderbilt and ensured the Commodore's lengthly bowl drought continued. Vandy fell to 5-7 and is not eligible for a bowl. Vanderbilt and Indiana were tied for the longest bowl drought among BCS teams, but Indiana's streak should end this year as discussed last week. Wake's season was kind of an under-the-radar story this year. Wake Forest didn't fall apart a year after a shocking ACC title last year, but they couldn't beat any of the elite ACC teams either (lost to BC, Clemson, Virginia). Also, Wake's non-conference loss to Nebraska looks pretty bad right now. Still, Wake Forest was at the level of Duke a few years ago, so beating Vanderbilt to finish 8-4 has to feel good.
UConn met West Virginia for the Big East title, and as expected, West Virginia won handily. In a shocking turn of events, West Virginia not only won the Big East title, but is now favored to play for the national title. They simply have to beat a mediocre Pittsburgh team in the backyard brawl to get there. I don't have anything exciting to say about that game, other than, get out a map and look how close WVU's campus is to the Pittsburgh campus. This really is the backyard brawl.
Next, Fresno St. crushed Kansas St. to deny Kansas St. a bowl bid. By the way, anyone questioning why Kansas fell to 5th in the BCS standing need look no further than their resume. Kansas is still a paper tiger with one loss. Kansas beat only three BCS bowl eligible teams this year, Colorado (6-6), Oklahoma St. (6-6), and Texas A&M (7-5).
Missouri on the other hand played some tough competition earlier in the year and was better prepared for the game against Kansas. With Missouri's victory, the BCS title game picture became relatively clear again. If Missouri beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, it should be Missouri vs West Virginia. If Oklahoma beats Missouri again, West Virginia will likely face Ohio St. for the National Title. It has finally come down to just that.
Elsewhere, Georgia won its rivalry game against Georgia Tech, earning the likely Orange bowl bid as discussed above. UCLA beat Oregon, knocking Oregon out of the Pac 10 hunt for good. Oklahoma won a suddenly meaningless bedlam matchup against Oklahoma St. And Florida won a game that meant nothing except to the Heisman voters.
This is college football nirvana folks, and if one of these stories didn't excite you, you must not be a college football fan.
To quickly recap the total BCS picture. Should Missouri win against Oklahoma, here's how I see it going down. The four at-large BCS bids should go to Kansas, Georgia, Arizona St., and Hawaii. The Fiesta Bowl will pick Kansas to replace Missouri, the Orange Bowl will next pick Georgia, the Fiesta Bowl will pick Arizona St., and the Sugar Bowl will get stuck with Hawaii. The games will then look like this:
National Title: One vs Two, Missouri vs West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Big 10 vs Pac 10, Ohio St. vs USC
Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs At Large, Virginia Tech vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: At Large vs At Large, Kansas vs Arizona St.
Sugar Bowl: SEC Champ vs At Large, LSU vs Hawaii
If Arizona St. or Hawaii lose, a 3 loss BCS team will end up taking their place. Boston College and Tennessee can also sub in as the ACC and SEC Champs if they win next week.
Turning quickly to the basketball court.
College Basketball Wrapup
Texas A&M crushed Ohio St. to win the NIT proving that either Texas A&M was a lot more than just Acie Law last year, or that Ohio St. is still pretty young. I say it was a little of both.
Iowa went winless in the South Padre Invitational, falling to Utah St. and Bradley. Bradley lost in the championship to Vanderbilt. Iowa which has struggled recently against Drake and N. Iowa cannot be happy to lose to another MVC team in Bradley.
Xavier dominated Indiana to win the Chicago Invitational Challenge. While Butler, S. Illinois, and even Davidson are getting a lot of press early, Xavier was flying under the radar. But that's about to change. Look for Xavier to be a serious March sleeper team.
In one of those, you-have-got-to-be-kidding-me moments, the organizers of the Las Vegas Invitational essentially rigged the tournament to ensure a Louisville vs UNC game in Las Vegas. But, BYU spoiled the party defeating Louisville in the semis. (Missing David Padgett stories were seen everywhere.) UNC then won the title game against BYU.
In the Philly Classic, Seton Hall edged Virginia proving that the ACC is not invincible in early season tournaments, it just looks that way.
In the Legends Classic, Texas beat Tennessee and proved all those early stories about the team not missing Durant may have some merit.
In the Great Alaska Shootout, Butler continued last year's early season tournament magic. Butler beat three BCS teams en route to the title, and made a great case for an NCAA at large selection in March. Butler beat Michigan, Virginia Tech, and Texas Tech in Alaska. The final day belonged to the mid-majors as Gonzaga also upended Virginia Tech in the 3rd place game and Western Kentucky upended Michigan in the 5th place game.
The Anaheim Classic went to the BCS leagues as USC won a tough game against Southern Illinois for the title. That game is going to be a huge feather in USC's cap come March.
Finally, in the Old Spice Classic, Penn St. went winless, losing to Rider and UCF along the way. George Mason picked up two huge wins and a quality loss, edging Kansas St. an South Carolina, while losing to Villaova. NC State won a dramatic 1 point game against Villanova to win the Old Spice title.
With Feast Week wrapped up, the ACC-Big Ten Challenge is about to get underway. As everyone knows the ACC always wins this thing. Due to time constrainsts, I doubt I'll have much of a preview, but I'm willing to bet the Basketball Prospectus link will have something to say, so click on the link in the upper left.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Byron Eaton, Okl. St. PPG RPG APG MPG
Freshman 7.8 2.3 3.2 23.7
Sophomore 7.7 2.6 3.6 24.7
First Junior Games 6.2 2.8 3.0 20.4
Eaton’s numbers are worse when you consider Oklahoma St. is really hoping he’ll still be a star for his team. Bobby Frasor’s PPG also went down last year, but his role was largely supplanted by Ty Lawson.
Bobby Frasor, UNC PPG RPG APG MPG
Freshman 6.4 2.2 4.4 27.5
Sophomore 2.4 0.7 1.6 10.1
First Junior Games 5.3 1.3 2.0 16.0
Outside of Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts, the Junior McDonald’s All-American class was never hyped to the same degree as the recent classes. This was because it was the last class to have players jump straight to the NBA. In fact, seven of the MAA’s went straight to the NBA, and two others (McRoberts and Julian Wright) jumped last year. Here’s how the other 15 have fared in their debut games this year:
Juniors PPG RPG APG MPG Results
Richard Hendrix, Alab 25.0 15.7 1.7 30.3 L Belmont, W Troy, Mercer
Jon Brockman, Wash. 22.5 12.5 1.3 30.8 L TexasA&M, W Utah, EWash, NJTech
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC 22.3 10.3 0.3 25.7 Beat Davidson, Iona, SC State
Eric Devendorf, Syr 15.8 3.0 4.3 37.3 L Ohio St., W St. Joes, Siena, Fordham
Korvotney Barber, Aub 15.0 8.0 0.8 26.5 L Tulane, W Kenn, AlabSt, CharS
Danny Green, UNC 13.7 5.0 1.7 20.3 Beat Davidson, Iona, SC State
Mario Chalmers, Kans 12.0 2.8 5.8 26.8 Beat NAriz,ULMon,UMKC,Washb
Brandon Costner, NCSt 10.3 8.0 2.7 32.3 L New Orleans, W W&M, Rider
Greg Paulus, Duke 8.0 2.2 4.6 26.6 Beat Marq,Ill,Princ,NewMexSt,NCCen
Tasmin Mitchell, LSU 7.3 5.7 2.0 22.0 L OklSt,ArSt, W Cham,SELou,McN
Byron Eaton, Okl. St. 6.2 2.8 3.0 20.4 L Marq,Ill, NTex, W LSU,PVAM
Bobby Frasor, UNC 5.3 1.3 2.0 16.0 Beat Davidson, Iona, SC State
Luke Zeller, N. Dame 5.0 2.5 0.8 14.8 L G. Tech, Baylor, W Monmouth, LIU
Two players transferred and are starting their first full year with their new teams:
Transfers PPG RPG APG MPG Results
Micah Downs, Gonzaga 6.7 4.3 2.0 26.0 Beat Montana, Idaho, UCRiverside
Eric Boateng, Ariz St 5.0 4.3 0.0 15.0 L Illinois, W LSU, Princeton
Many of the above names are known nationally, but it is worth noting that three of these players appear to have taken a more starring role in their junior season:
Richard Hendrix, Alab PPG RPG APG MPG
Freshman 9.4 8.0 0.8 27.1
Sophomore 14.6 8.7 1.9 27.6
First Junior Games 25.0 15.7 1.7 30.3
Jon Brockman, Wash. PPG RPG APG MPG
Freshman 8.4 6.5 0.7 24.1
Sophomore 14.2 9.6 1.1 28.8
First Junior Games 22.5 12.5 1.3 30.8
Korvotney Barber, Aub PPG RPG APG MPG
Freshman 6.8 4.8 0.4 21.3
Sophomore 11.3 6.6 1.1 25.5
First Junior Games 15.0 8.0 0.8 26.5
It is unclear whether or not they can keep this up, but if you haven’t heard about Hendrix, Brockman, and Barber in the hype for Love, Mayo, and Beasley, maybe you should have.
Again, I’ve been too busy eating Apple Pie and Turkey to watch much basketball, so I’ll keep it short and sweet.
CBE Classic: UCLA made a terrific second half rally to defeat Michigan St. late Tuesday Night.
Maui Invitational: The final day produced three good games, Chaminade edged Princeton, Arizona St. edged LSU, and Duke edged Marquette.
NIT: Jonny Flynn’s early heroics came to an end as he went 0-6 from the floor and watched fellow freshman MAA Kosta Koufos make a statement. And despite a 21-15 double double from Jon Brockman (listed above), Washington fell to Texas A&M in the other semifinal.
Great Alaska Shootout: For the second year in a row, Butler found early tournament success, crushing Michigan in the first quarterfinal matchup. Butler will face Virginia Tech on Friday.
The Anaheim Classic and Old Spice Classic are just kicking off. I’ll have more comments later in the week. Happy Thanksgiving!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Pomeroy’s coach ranking (actually his adaptation of a Dean Oliver idea) highlights my biggest problem with my own rankings. Within any one year, it is clear that the best coaches are the coaches that take an unsuccessful program and win more than expected. In fact, this sounds terrific, until you evaluate the flip side. Coaches that maintain a level of excellence can never rise to the top of the list.
For example, over the last 5 years, I essentially rated Ohio St.’s coach Thad Matta as the top coach in college basketball. That is because he led to a significant improvement at three straight schools. This sounds good in principle, but did it really prove that Thad Matta was a better Coach than Billy Donovan? Billy Donovan won two championships but mostly just maintained a program at the highest possible level.
To put it another way, if you lived to enjoy the end of UCLA’s glory days, was your reaction, “Eh they should win every year”, or “There goes the greatest coach of all time”? I think the answer has to be the later, and if that’s true, you really cannot overlook the most important metric of all, victories.
After all, if you put Anthony Grant at North Carolina, I’m not sure he would win the ACC or compete for a National Title. But, I’m sure that if you put Roy Williams at VCU, he would make an impact. Just look at what John Calipari did after he returned to college to coach at Memphis. From his Memphis Bio,
“Although the Tiger program wasn't as far down as UMass was when Calipari arrived, even the most loyal Memphis basketball supporters would admit their beloved Tigers had fallen on hard times in the mid-to-late 1990s. From 1993-94 through 1999-2000 (seven seasons), Memphis posted only two 20-win campaigns (1994-95 and 1995-96), and the Tigers had consecutive losing seasons in 1998-99 and 1999-2000.”
But now, “Calipari's 181 victories and 25.9 wins per year are the most by a Tiger mentor in his first seven seasons.”
Clearly a big name coach can step into a mid-level school and raise them to prominence. So for that reason, I think any reasonable measure has to reward success as a whole, not just improvement.
A Silly Criticism
To be fair, Pomeroy knew this wasn’t a tool to evaluate all coaches, and that’s why he looked at only new coaches in his article. Moreover, he also pointed out that new coaches often struggle because they inherit difficult situations. And I’m sure if you pushed him further, he would agree that there are other important factors to consider when evaluating new coaches.
For example, look at how the improvement metric would compare the new coaches Bob Huggins (now at West Virginia) and Frank Martin (now at Kansas St.). If they have equal success this year, this type of metric should rate them the same. After all, both programs were borderline NCAA teams last year. But since Frank Martin runs the same system as Bob Huggins, and because his recruits were already in place, if Bob Huggins takes West Virginia as far as Kansas St. this year, I’ll consider it a minor miracle.
In the day and age when Moneyball fanatics like to think that statistics can solve everything, including removing the need for scouting, I’m pleased to note that a regression can’t observe everything. But its still kind of fun to look. After all, why else would we have a reason to discuss Todd Bozeman?
Three Other Problems with My Rankings and Other Coach Rankings
1) Let’s assume for a moment that turning a program around will always be more impressive than maintaining a program. Then, what window do you use to measure that success? As Pomeroy said, new coaches often inherit situations where the program has bottomed out. If a team is without talent, even a top coach may not be able to get that team to win immediately. This suggests a longer time window is appropriate. It suggests we should look at coaches after five years, and see whether or not they have improved their programs. But a longer time window is also not without its downfall. After all, Roy Williams looks like a miracle maker over a short-time horizon, taking Doherty’s disappointments and turning them into National Champions. But relative to the long history of North Carolina, he’s only maintained the tradition. While Calipari clearly revitalized Memphis, the school had a tradition of success dating back to a 1973 title game against UCLA.
2) Is it easier or harder to win at a mid-major or a major school? For example, would you be more impressed with Roy Williams maintaining success at North Carolina or Mark Few maintaining success at Gonzaga? Yes, North Carolina has more tradition and a larger fanbase to fall back on, but Gonzaga faces fewer hurdles in conference play in the WCC.
3) Is it the coach or the program? The biggest problem in answering all these questions is that we don’t have enough variance in the coaching data, (we don’t have enough coaches switching between jobs) to truly identify the ability of any one coach. I think this is particularly true when it comes to recruiting. We don’t know how much the recruiting comes from the school and how much it comes from the coach. In some cases (think Duke), the two are so intertwined that it would be pointless to try to sort it out.
So who is the best coach? I guess the reason I created my rankings is to ask the question “Best at what?” Best at Recruiting? Best at Development? Best in the Tournament? And if I’ve already bored you with this level of detail, just take the easy way out. Say John Wooden.
Michigan St.’s big lead evaporated Monday night against Missouri, but they hung on for a victory. I’m sure if John Gasaway was still writing a daily column he’d discuss the fact that Michigan St.’s 17 turnovers were not terrible, particularly given last season’s MSU turnover rate and Missouri’s defense which is designed to create turnovers. But the obvious effect of all that defensive pressure was a lot of easy baskets. Michigan St.’s starting front court all shot over 50% and two of the players Gray and Morgan were perfect from the field.
The Big Ten success continued elsewhere late Monday as Illinois built a huge lead on Arizona St. Sadly for those of us Illinois fans hoping to watch the game, the large run to start the game was largely interrupted by bonus coverage of the Michigan St. vs Missouri. Not that I’m bitter or anything.
Today’s games were mostly less inspiring.
Maui: Chaminade held tough with LSU but lost in the consolation bracket and Princeton looked tired against Arizona St. in the other semifinal. Marquette on the other hand looked fresh and dominant knocking down 11 of 16 three pointers in the victory over Oklahoma St. This of course led to the incoherent rant from Doug Gottlieb about how Oklahoma St. cannot stop penetration by guards. Uh dude, I’m sure that was important and all, but that would have been a much better talking point if Marquette’s guards hadn’t just hit 11 three pointers. Just saying.
CBE Classic: Missouri outlasted Maryland, and Michigan St. vs UCLA is just kicking off.
Tommorrow Night we have the finale of the Maui Invitational, the NIT Semis, the start of the Great Alaska Shootout, and a lot of people sitting in airports.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Top of the World: Colorado St. topped off the classic with a dramatic one point comeback victory. (See recap here.)
Paradise Jam: Wichita State finally picked up a win defeating Illinois-Chicago in the 7th place game. Meanwhile Monmouth pulled its second upset of the tournament defeating Charlotte a day after defeating Wichita St. Monmouth’s overtime victory over Charlotte is recapped here. But, the game of the day may have been Georgia Tech’s dramatic one point win over Notre Dame in the 3rd place game. (Recap here.) Notre Dame cannot be happy to win only once in the Virgin Islands, but hey, they beat Monmouth. Finally, Baylor defeated Winthrop in a much less dramatic final to capture the Paradise Jam championship.
Maui: Marquette, Oklahoma St., and Duke won easily in the early games. Arizona St. vs Illinois is about to tip off.
CBE Classic: UCLA dispatched Maryland with Westbrook’s hair doing most of the talking. OK, Westbrook’s game was pretty good too. He had 13 points and 7 assists in UCLA’s win over Maryland. Oh, and Kevin Love just posted another double-double. OJ Mayo may average more points for USC, but UCLA is going to win a lot more games thanks to this guy. Michigan St. leads Missouri at halftime and if they hang on, it will set up a match-up of Top 15 teams on Tuesday. Back tomorrow.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Puerto Rico Tip-Off Final
Picture this. You’re in Puerto Rico. Your team is playing for the 3rd time in 4 days. If you’re Tim Welsh, you’re sweating it out in a suit like just about every other Division 1 coach. But if you’re Frank Haith you are wearing a white short-sleeve dress shirt with a University of Miami insignia. The look was right out of a retirement community. I mean who wears a short-sleeve dress shirt anyhow? Oh, that’s right. People that live in Miami.
You know what is often the key to winning multiple days in a row? Foul trouble. How often do you see a player in a Conference Tournament sit down one day with foul trouble and show up the next day as the only fresh player on the court? In this case it was Jack McClinton who picked up his 4th foul early in the second half and had to sit until the three minute mark. A that point in the game, almost every other shooter was coming up short on their three point shot, but when the fresh McClinton came into the tie game, he immediately hit the go ahead three pointer. This sparked a mini-run for Miami and despite the fact that McClinton then fouled out, his team had build enough of a lead to hold on for victory. Obviously it can backfire if your reserves don’t play well, but in these day-to-day tournaments, resting three point shooters can often pay dividends.
The Magic Continues
You have to give a lot of credit to Gregg Marshall. He’s had to earn his keep at every coaching destination in his career. He was never an assistant at a major program and never had the connections to quickly move up in the world. Despite being the Big South Coach of the Year 5 times, despite taking Winthrop to the NCAA tournament in 7 out of 9 years, he didn’t get a sniff at a big time coaching job. Instead, he’ll have to earn his way again, taking over a Wichita St. team in the almost major Missouri Valley Conference. The good news for Gregg is that if he wins at Wichita St., he should get a chance at a major coaching job. The bad news is that he doesn’t get to enjoy the continued ride at Winthrop.
Not only did his 11th seeded Winthrop squad defeat Notre Dame in last year’s NCAA tournament, for one of the best wins in school history, that same Winthrop team is now playing in the championship game of the Paradise Jam tournament. (At the time of this writing, Baylor vs Notre Dame is still in progress.) Winthrop defeated Georgia Tech in the PJ semis thanks to four starters in double figures. (Recap here.)
Sadly for Greg Marshall, his current team is the one that is struggling. Wichita St. has lost to Baylor and Monmouth and now must beat a dangerous Illinois-Chicago team to avoid finishing 0-3 in the Virgin Islands.
Other Tournament Games
Puerto Rico: Temple finally picked up a victory, but needed overtime to beat Marist in the 7th place game. Yikes. Houston beat Charleston for 5th place, and Arkansas outlasted VCU in the 3rd place game. The formerly cold and hot Eric Maynor was simply average in the final, scoring 12 points in 38 minutes.
Top of the World: Allow me to recap the field. Alaska, Tennessee St., Colorado St., Akron, South Carolina St., Portland St., IUPUI, and Oregon St. Oregon St. would be the only BCS team here. And that same Oregon St. team finished in 7th place, beating winless South Carolina Upstate for their only victory.
First off, how embarrassing is that for the Oregon St. team? I believe on my coach rankings page, (which I still need to update), that I said that Jay John was on the hot seat this year. This can’t have helped matters.
Second, who the heck is South Carolina Upstate? I’ve heard of South Carolina. I’ve heard of South Carolina St. But South Carolina Upstate? Here they are. Huh, I guess they play in the Atlantic Sun.
Third, the championship game between Portland St. and Colorado St. was on after my bedtime. I’ll check back tomorrow.
Do these Games Matter?
Come NCAA selection show time, we put a lot of stock into these early season tournaments because they offer some rare non-conference BCS match-ups. But, I’m not sure whether it is good to put a lot of weight on these games or not. On the one hand, the Miami-Providence final was often sloppy due to tired players. But, on the other hand, the best players often rise to the occasion in these games. Look back at Douglas-Roberts and Rose in the Coaches vs Cancer final. They were playing the second day in a row, and they looked like the elite players that they are. I guess I’ll say it’s a coin flip. These games should matter, but not as much as the long grind that is conference play.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Welcome Back PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
Chase Budinger, Arizona 25.0 6.0 4.0 32.0 Beat N. Arizona
Wayne Ellington, UNC 20.0 3.0 1.0 33.0 Beat Davidson
Jon Scheyer, Duke 17.5 4.0 3.5 25.5 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
D.J. Augustin, Texas 14.5 2.0 7.5 37.0 Beat Texas-SA, UCDavis
Sherron Collins, Kansas 16.0 3.5 5.0 27.5 Beat ULMon, UMKC, Wshb
Darrell Arthur, Kansas 12.7 7.0 1.0 25.7 Beat ULMon, UMKC, Wshb
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova 13.0 1.0 6.0 33.0 Beat Stony Brook
Earl Clark, Louisville 10.0 11.0 3.0 30.0 Beat Hartford
Robin Lopez, Stanford 9.8 6.0 1.0 24.2 L Sna W Hrv,NWSt,CSB,NW
Gerald Henderson, Duke 13.0 2.5 2.0 22.5 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
Lance Thomas, Duke 7.0 3.0 0.5 21.0 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
Tywon Lawson, UNC 8.0 1.0 1.0 21.0 Beat Davidson
Vernon Macklin, Georgetown 4.0 4.0 0.5 20.0 Beat Michigan, W&M
Tweety Carter, Baylor 6.5 1.0 1.5 20.0 Beat WichSt,JacksonSt
Sample selection may matter here, as the sophomore MAA’s that stayed in school are not quite hitting the same peak performances as the freshman MAA’s listed yesterday. The one exception is Chase Budinger who is really not getting enough press here on the East Coast. He’s an elite player and a good reason my pre-season predictions had Arizona 2nd in the Pac10.
The most important stat in the table listed above may be that only one of the teams with a sophomore MAA has lost yet, while four of the freshman MAAs play on teams that already have “bad” losses.
If you think I’m focusing too much on MAA’s, you’re right. But remember, since the inception of the MAA team, only two teams have won a National Title without a MAA on their roster.
Big Ten Network
I watched four Big Ten Games at once this afternoon thanks to the Big Ten Network (and ESPN) and all four came down to the wire. And just like that the Big Ten season is over. Here are a few thoughts:
-Wisconsin nearly blew the chance at a New Year’s Day Bowl against 1-10 Minnesota. But, in typical Gopher fashion, the Gopher’s muffed a punt late in the game which provided a critical cushion for the Badgers.
Paul Bunyan’s axe is clearly the coolest of all the rivalry trophies. Earlier in the day Illinois won the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk which is basically a tiny axe in a display box. It was passed off on the sidelines between Northwestern and Illinois staff and then casually brought into the tunnel. In other words, the players didn’t even know they won it. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin-Minnesota game always ends with a bunch of football players running across the field with an oversized axe in their hands. Note to future rivalry trophies. Oversized is better.
-Penn St.’s 4th down attempt sailed incomplete in the final minutes and Michigan St. sealed a huge comeback against the Nitany Lions. Penn St. probably wasn’t going to go to the New Year’s Day Outback Bowl two years in a row, but Saturday’s loss virtually assured Penn St. of the #5 slot in the Champs Sports Bowl. Glancing at the top 5:
Conf All Team
7-1 11-1 Ohio St.
6-2 9-3 Illinois
6-2 8-4 Michigan
5-3 9-3 Wisconsin
4-4 8-4 Penn St.
If nothing wacky happens in the BCS, Ohio St. should go to the Rose Bowl as the lone BCS bid. Thanks to their upset of Ohio St. last week, Illinois appears to be the clear choice for the Capital One Bowl. The final New Year’s Day Bow, the Outback Bowl, will have a choice between Michigan and Wisconsin. If Lloyd Carr retires, I could see that being the factor that keeps Michigan ahead of Wisconsin, but it could go either way. The loser should get the Alamo Bowl.
-Indiana meanwhile had a huge 24-3 lead, lost the lead, and needed a little magic to defeat Purdue. (Did that Indiana kicker look nervous or what?) Purdue has now lost 3 games in a row, and may have lost a chance to go to a Big Ten affiliated bowl. Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan St. now have identical records of 7-5 (3-5) and the Insight and Motor City Bowls can only choose two of them. Michigan St. beat both Purdue and Indiana this year and may have the fanbase to take the Insight Bowl. But Indiana’s 14 year bowl drought should be an attractive enough story for the Motor City Bowl to choose the Hoosiers. Purdue will have to hope a bowl slot opens up elsewhere, and the way this season has broken, there is no guarantee that will happen.
-Iowa and Northwestern on the other hand are probably going to be without a bowl. Iowa has the better chance based on a better conference record, but at 6-6 the only way these teams can take an at-large bowl slot is if every single 7-5 team already gets a bowl game. Moreover, other leagues may have more deserving 6-6 teams. When you look inside the numbers, Iowa didn’t have to play Michigan or Ohio St. this year and still only got to 6 wins. More importantly, when you lose at home to a MAC team in your final game of the season, your fanbase probably isn’t going to want to travel.
Friday, November 16, 2007
The Wow Group PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
Michael Beasley, Kansas St. 31.0 19.0 3.5 30.0 Beat SacSt., PittSt.
Eric Gordon, Indiana 33.0 6.0 4.0 35.0 Beat Tenn-Chatt
J.J. Hickson, NC State 31.0 7.0 1.0 30.0 Beat William & Mary
Kevin Love, UCLA 20.7 10.3 2.3 27.0 Beat PortSt,YSU,SBern
My Team Lost to Who? PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
O.J. Mayo, USC 24.0 7.0 4.5 37.0 L Mercer, W Citadel
James Anderson, Okl. St. 22.5 5.0 4.5 33.0 L N.Texas, W PVAM
Patrick Patterson, Kentucky 8.0 7.5 1.0 22.5 L GardWebb, W C.Ark
Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech 7.0 4.3 0.3 15.7 L UNCGB, W Chrlt,TennSt
It is probably too early to pull out the tempo free stats for these players, but BP points out that Mayo needed a lot of shots to get that many points.
For Real PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
Derrick Rose, Memphis 19.8 5.5 2.5 30.8 Beat Conn,Okl,Rchm,TMrt
Donte Greene, Syracuse 19.0 8.0 1.3 36.7 Beat StJoes,Siena,Frdhm
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse 13.0 3.3 7.7 34.3 Beat StJoes,Siena,Frdhm
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma 14.8 8.6 1.8 26.6 L Mem, W SF,Den,Alc,GaW
The above players have played at least one game against a quality opponent and they look legit. These next players look like vital cogs for their teams, but we’ll know more when they play better competition.
Need More Data PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
Nick Calathes, Florida 17.3 3.3 6.3 30.7 Beat NDSt,TennTch,NCCen
Jerryd Bayless, Arizona 18.0 1.0 5.0 34.0 Beat N. Arizona
Kosta Koufos, Ohio St. 18.5 7.5 1.0 24.5 Beat Wisc-GB, Columbia
Kyle Singer, Duke 12.5 6.0 1.5 23.0 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
James Harden, Arizona St. First Game Monday Night
And here are some players that have yet to take starring roles for their teams.
Role Players? PPG RPG APG MPG Opponents
Taylor King, Duke 13.5 5.0 1.5 18.0 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
Jai Lucas, Florida 9.0 2.0 2.7 26.0 Beat NDSt,TennTch,NCCen
Nolan Smith, Duke 9.0 0.0 3.5 18.0 Beat NCCen, NewMexSt
Austin Freeman, Georgetown 6.0 3.0 0.5 17.5 Beat Michigan, W&M
Chris Wright, Georgetown 5.0 3.0 0.5 15.0 Beat Michigan, W&M
Corey Stokes, Villanova 2.0 2.0 1.0 15.0 Beat Stony Brook
Cole Aldrich, Kansas 3.0 4.0 0.0 9.3 Beat ULMon, UMKC, Wshb
Taylor King has made the most of his minutes so far, but the jury is still out. Jai Lucas has been quiet offensively, but his team hasn’t needed him to be a big scorer yet. I could see Nolan Smith earning more minutes (particularly given my lack of faith in Paulus), but Duke might have to play its big men more in future games which could limit his minutes. Georgetown is deep enough that Freeman and Wright may have to be role players this year.
What’s the upside for players like Beasley and Mayo? Well, of last year’s 24 freshmen McDonald’s All-Americans, 8 went on to the NBA. Here’s how they fared last year:
Last Year’s Stars PPG RPG APG MPG Pick
Kevin Durant, Texas 25.8 11.1 1.3 35.9 2
Greg Oden, Ohio St 15.7 9.6 0.7 28.9 1
Mike Conley, Ohio St 11.3 3.4 6.1 31.6 4
Brandan Wright, UNC 14.7 6.2 1.0 27.4 8
Spencer Hawes, Washington 14.9 6.4 1.9 28.9 10
Thaddeus Young, G. Tech 14.4 4.9 2.0 29.6 12
Javaris Crittenton, G. Tech 14.4 3.7 5.8 31.3 19
Daequan Cook, Ohio St 9.8 4.3 1.0 19.7 21
Or, for those of you who find this more informative:
Last Year’s Stars eFG% ORtng Team Result
Kevin Durant, Texas 53.6 116.5 Lost 2nd Round
Greg Oden, Ohio St 61.6 116.2 National Runner-Up
Mike Conley, Ohio St 55.2 117.6 National Runner-Up
Brandan Wright, UNC 64.6 118.9 Elite Eight
Spencer Hawes, Washington 53.3 108.6 None
Thaddeus Young, G. Tech 53.1 112.5 Lost 1st Round
Javaris Crittenton, G. Tech 50.1 106.2 Lost 1st Round
Daequan Cook, Ohio St 53.0 103.7 National Runner-Up
Other than Durant, these numbers don’t look that impossible to duplicate. It would not shock me for Kevin Love to better Oden’s 15-10, especially since he has more experience around him.
Looking back, it’s a little shocking that Hawes, Crittenton, and Cook went pro given that they weren’t even efficient players in college. None of them have ORtngs over 110. But since they all ended up as 1st round draft picks, they obviously made the right move.
So if the high end freshman MAA produces around 15 PPG, 6 RPG and 2 APG, what’s the worst production one could observe for a MAA player? How about 36.5% eFG% and 1 PPG. That’s what James Keefe did last year. He’s one of two MAA freshman from last season who you shouldn’t look for in the NBA or college this year:
Player eFG% Ortng Team Result Status
Brook Lopez, Stanford 50.2 98.2 Lost 1st Round Suspension
James Keefe, UCLA 36.5 77.0 Final Four Inactive
I haven’t heard whether Keefe is going to try to transfer from UCLA, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise. Lopez decided not to attend class.
And while we’re at it, we might as well look at the other 14 MAA freshman performances from last year:
Player PPG RPG APG MPG
Chase Budinger, Arizona 15.6 5.8 2.0 33.0
D.J. Augustin, Texas 14.4 2.8 6.7 35.6
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova 14.8 2.8 4.0 29.6
Tywon Lawson, UNC 10.2 2.9 5.6 25.7
Jon Scheyer, Duke 12.2 3.3 1.8 33.7
Wayne Ellington, UNC 11.7 2.9 2.1 23.9
Sherron Collins, Kansas 9.3 2.3 2.9 22.3
Darrell Arthur, Kansas 9.8 4.7 0.4 19.0
Tweety Carter, Baylor 8.7 1.8 2.7 25.5
Earl Clark, Louisville 5.9 3.8 0.4 16.0
Robin Lopez, Stanford 7.5 5.5 0.9 24.0
Gerald Henderson, Duke 6.8 2.9 1.1 19.3
Lance Thomas, Duke 4.0 2.5 0.0 14.9
Vernon Macklin, Georgetown 2.9 1.5 0.5 9.8
Player eFG% Ortng 2007 Result
Chase Budinger, Arizona 55.4 120.1 Lost 1st Round
D.J. Augustin, Texas 51.5 114.4 Lost 2nd Round
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova 47.6 107.0 Lost 1st Round
Tywon Lawson, UNC 55.5 116.0 Elite Eight
Jon Scheyer, Duke 50.5 116.2 Lost 1st Round
Wayne Ellington, UNC 52.0 115.0 Elite Eight
Sherron Collins, Kansas 56.5 113.0 Elite Eight
Darrell Arthur, Kansas 53.8 107.2 Elite Eight
Tweety Carter, Baylor 48.8 110.0 None
Earl Clark, Louisville 51.4 106.7 Lost 2nd Round
Robin Lopez, Stanford 48.0 98.5 Lost 1st Round
Gerald Henderson, Duke 47.2 96.7 Lost 1st Round
Lance Thomas, Duke 56.8 89.3 Lost 1st Round
Vernon Macklin, Georgetown 74.1 119.5 Final Four
Reynolds was not nearly as efficient as the others, but he was the only scorer on his team, and had to carry the load. Macklin on the other hand was unbelievably efficient, but because he played on such a deep team, he didn’t get to take very many shots or play very many minutes.
So whether this year’s freshman MAA’s end up starring like Durant, flubbing like James Keefe, or simply posting decent numbers in limited minutes like Darrell Arthur, I’ll try to post their numbers at various times throughout the season.
Coaches vs Cancer: Despite leading the world in blocked shots last year, Connecticut had no answer for Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose driving to the basket. Memphis won 81-70.
Puerto Rico: Thursday, VCU beat Houston despite 1-12 shooting from Eric Maynor. Friday, Maynor scored 27 points, but VCU still fell to the University of Miami. Thus we learn our first non-lesson of the day. Eric Maynor needs to play a lot worse if his team is going to go very far this year.
Miami will meet former Big East rival Providence in the championship game on Sunday. Providence shot 38% from the floor and turned the ball over 20 times, but still upset Arkansas in the other semifinal. The key stat here appears to be the 32 turnovers by the Razorbacks. 32 turnovers!! With 52 turnovers, was this game played in the rain? That’s some ugly basketball.
Also in Puerto Rico, Temple lost its second heartbreaker in a row. After losing by 2 to Providence, Temple lost by 3 to the College of Charleston. With Houston beating Marist in the other side of the consolation bracket, Sunday’s games look like this:
Miami vs Providence, 1st Place Game
VCU vs Arkansas, 3rd Place Game
Houston vs Charleston, 5th Place Game
Temple vs Marist, 7th Place Game
Top of the World: The field seems extra weak this year and they set up a funny bracket with probably the two best teams, Oregon St. and Colorado St. playing on the first day. Colorado St. did the MWC proud, winning late Thursday and is now the clear favorite.
Paradise Jam: Georgia Tech was out-rebounded, turned the ball over more, and shot fewer free throws than Charlotte. But Georgia Tech shot 52% from the floor and picked up the win. Georgia Tech will now face Winthrop in one of the Sunday semifinals. The other key game Friday was Wichita St. vs Baylor. While the MVC has often earned its high ranking by winning games in these types of tournaments, Baylor’s Curtis Jerrells scored a respectable 23 points and 8 rebounds and led his team to victory. Baylor will now face Notre Dame in the other Sunday semifinal.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Coaches vs Cancer: UConn vs Memphis is set for the final on Friday. UConn still looks like an amazing defensive team, holding Gardner Webb to 31.5% shooting, but we already knew that. Memphis never lost their cool against Oklahoma, well except for that weird technical foul incident. (I shoved you into my teammate and you were knocked down and we're off-setting. Sure.)
Puerto Rico: Arkansas, Providence, Miami, and VCU were the winners Thursday setting up two great semifinals Friday. VCU won despite Eric Maynor shooting 1 for 12 from the field. Both the Providence and VCU games were nailbiters. (VCU recap here. Providence recap here.)
NIT: The Final Four was actually set Wed. and all the expected teams won. Next Wednesday Syracuse plays Ohio St. and Washington plays Texas A&M. The NIT seems quite watered down. (NJIT, really?) But we did see one interesting development. Despite playing for the second day in a row, Syracuse used a five man rotation against St. Joe's. Check out the box score here. Yikes. I think Syracuse has the potential to be a real sleeper this year, but they won't win the NIT if they don't play a few more players.
CBA Classic: The Final Four is also according to plan. Missouri plays Michigan St. and Maryland plays UCLA next Monday.
The Top of the World Classic and Paradise Jam are also underway tommorrow.
The MVC has officially hit the big time. Now its recruits are making stupid decisions.
Although I feel that linking to ESPN appears to be a blogging sin, I do it all the time, so why not link to this excellent article by Kyle Whelliston. Kyle shows that we should fear the Atlantic Sun, a conference that abandoned its TAAC name in an apparent attempt to move up in the alphabetic listings of standings. Coming soon, the Aardvark Conference.
While I miss the flow of the Ken and John's old posts, I'm definitely warming up to Basketball Prospectus. I just wish they'd get rid of the NBA guy. I'm sure he's nice and all, but there's no natural synergy between college basketball and the NBA. The synergy is with college football ;). Did you see Arizona beat Oregon tonight? Oy, I feel bad for the Oregon fans. The injury to Dennis Dixon was critical. It now appears that the winner of the Big 12 quasi-playoff should have the inside track to face LSU in the national title game. Missouri vs Kansas, Winner vs Oklahoma. It's almost like a bracket.
Inside the Hoyas
Let's face it. Even if I'm trying to be a national blog, I'm still going to cover the team I have season tickets to more carefully then say a Pac 10 team that is never on while I'm awake. And like any actual fan, I get most excited by "my" teams preview. So despite several worthwhile previews on Basketball Prospectus, let me focus you in on the Big East preview. In particular, the Georgetown preview.
Last year the Hoyas had a lot of turnovers and a lot of high percentage shots. Obviously Georgetown could improve on their turnover percentage by throwing fewer risky post passes and taking bad shots earlier in the shot clock. But since that isn't exactly an appealing idea, Georgetown appears to be trying something different. BP recommended that Jonathan Wallace turn the ball over less. And the plan is in action through two games. To cut down on turnovers Jonathon Wallace has passed his primary point guard duties to Rivers, freshman Chris Wright, and even Jesse Sapp. Wallace is no longer taking the ball up the court, and while he will still try to create for others in the flow of the offense, he is focusing more on being a spot up shooter and 2 guard. Stats observant coach John Thompson the 3rd, I salute you. (As a side note, SI's preview issue discusses this exact move. Nice eye Ted Keith.)
Factoid that May Only Interest Me
College basketball, how I lover your random traditions. Last year the Hoya student section had a mid-game salute that involved clapping for Jeff Green's mom. Thursday Night, she once again took her seat in the stands, but she was now wearing a green and white Sonics jersey. It didn't matter that her son had now moved on to the NBA, she still received the same honorary salute. Attention loving and deserving moms everywhere take note, send your son to Georgetown!
Factoid that May Only Interest Big 10 Fans
Michigan doesn't quite have the three point shooting prowess to run Beilein's system yet. There were at least three bad air-balls shot in the loss to the Hoyas. Georgetown's experience and depth really showed in this game as Michigan looked intimidated from the start. (Box score here.)
Monday, November 12, 2007
Here in a nutshell is my sports obssessed weekend:
Georgetown Home Opener
College Football Saturday
Direct TV NFL Ticket
Fantasy Team pulls ahead during Sunday Night Football
Arrghh. Despite all my good intentions to blog about the start of the basketball season, I may have to wait until next weekend before I delve into the early basketball box scores. But here's a quick nugget:
2 Points: Number of points scored by newcomers and returning bench players.
66 Points: Number of points scored by Georgetown’s 4 returning starters in Georgetown’s 68-53 win over William and Mary.
I know experience is more important early in the year, but this is ridiculous. Those 2 points were scored by freshman McDonald’s All-American Austin Freeman. Fellow freshman McDonald’s All-American Chris Wright scored 0 points in the opener. Last year's bench scored 0 points.
Later this week, I’d like to do a feature on the debuts of all the McDonald’s All-Americans if I get time. But now onto the Football.
A Happy BCS?
Though I haven’t written much about college football in the last few weeks, I did have time to make one set of predictions here. Not only did I predict that Ohio St. would lose one if its final games, I also said, “For BC, even Maryland is no gimme.” On Saturday, Illinois defeated #1 Ohio St and Maryland defeated #8 BC. Go me.
The experts have pretty much been saying for weeks that LSU and Oregon are the best two teams in the country. (See ESPN GameDay wrapup shows, Stewart Mandel Bullet Point #5) And they may actually get their wish this year as LSU and Oregon have moved up to the top 2 spots in the BCS standings.
While LSU could have a tough game in the SEC Championship and schizophrenic UCLA or rival Oregon St. could give Oregon a scare, LSU and Oregon should be favored to win out. The real question is what happens in the Big 12. The Saturday after Thanksgiving one loss Missouri travels to undefeated Kansas and the winner should face one loss Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game. There are really three scenarios.
1) If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 championship game, I think the poll voters will remember Oklahoma’s poor BCS Title game performance in the 2005 Orange Bowl and not jump the Sooners over a dominant Oregon team. (Remember Oregon’s only loss came in a game they could have easily won. Check out this depressed fan’s recap.)
2) If Missouri wins the Big 12 championship game, much like West Virginia, I think they will not be able to overtake Oregon in the human polls.
3) But, if Kansas wins the Big 12 championship game, then all hell is going to break loose. Not only will several of the computers have to move Kansas up after beating two one loss teams, but the poll voters will have an emotional time leaving an undefeated Kansas team out of one of the top spots.
Keep an eye out for people accusing the poll voters of preseason bias with regards to Kansas. The idea is that if Kansas had started as a ranked team like Ohio St., they’d already be #1. The reason I mention this is that BOTH Kansas AND Oregon were not ranked to start the season, but Oregon moved up earlier, in part because they went on the road and beat Michigan. Meanwhile Kansas was beating up on the weakest of non-conference schedules (Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International). So Kansas is a victim of its own scheduling as much as preseason bias.
Other BCS Bowls
Lot’s of places are going to have BCS predictions over the next few weeks, but there are still too many permutations for me to invest too much energy. But I highly suggest Stewart Mandel’s bowl predictions, because he usually explains how he makes his decisions. The key thing is to understand the BCS selection process which you can read about here.
If I remember correctly from past readings, the selection process goes something like this.
1) Slot Big 10, Pac 10, SEC, ACC, and Big 12 Champions in the obvious bowls.
2) The two bowls that lose their “home” teams pick next.
3) Then, this year, the Orange Bowl picks.
4) Then the Fiesta Bowl picks.
5) Then the Sugar Bowl picks.
Because there are some automatic qualifiers, the Sugar Bowl actually just gets stuck with a team. They don’t really have a choice. For awhile, it looked like the Sugar Bowl was going to get stuck with Hawaii, but either because of injury or simply the juggernaut known as Boise St., that is seeming less likely. But the Sugar Bowl will still probably end up stuck with some sort of automatic qualifier that they don’t want, we just don’t know who yet. The Fiesta Bowl might get stuck with someone too, particularly if we get a wacky outcome like UConn winning the Big East.
But, what makes things interesting is that this could be the first year that an at-large BCS selection has 3 losses! Just take a look around the leagues:
ACC: This Saturday, Clemson takes on Boston College for the ACC Atlantic title. The day after Thanksgiving, Virginia takes on Virginia Tech for the ACC Coastal title. The winners will meet in the ACC title game. All four teams already have 2 losses, and three of the teams are guaranteed to lose once, so the BCS will have to take a 3 loss team to take a 2nd team from the ACC.
Big East: West Virginia faces 2 loss Cincinnati and 2 loss UConn over the next two weeks. I will be shocked if West Virginia does not win both games easily. So all at large candidates will have 3 losses here.
Big Ten: If Ohio St. wins, everyone else already has 3 losses. If Michigan upsets Ohio St. and takes the auto-bid, would a BCS Bowl want an Ohio St. team that had lost its final 2 games of the year?
SEC: Georgia would have to get past Kentucky, Georgia Tech, and LSU in the SEC title game for the SEC to have two teams with 2 losses. The SEC is almost guaranteed to have a 3 loss team earn an at-large bid and it will probably be Florida.
The Big 12 was reviewed above and should have multiple teams with less than 2 losses, especially when you add in Texas.
The Pac-10 still has multiple teams with less than 2 losses. The USC vs Arizona St. game on Thanksgiving could very well be for one of those BCS at large bids. Moreover, assuming Oregon earns a BCS title game slot, USC vs Arizona St. could be a game for a trip to the Rose Bowl!
Middling Teams Fight For Bowl Berths
OK, the other thing I love about the next few weeks is the last minute shuffling for bowl slots. Consider this:
10 of the 11 Big Ten Teams are Bowl eligible.
10 of the 12 SEC Teams are Bowl eligible. (Vanderbilt will be an 11th if they can upset Tennessee or Wake Forest)
What kind of sick world rewards a 10th place conference team with Bowl eligibility? Oh, the kind of world where you can play 4 cupcakes and go 2-6 in conference and still be eligible. Woo-hoo we’re 2-6! Let’s celebrate. Ah, but the fates have stepped in. With so many teams eligible, there are not enough bowl partnerships. The Big Ten only has 7 affiliations unless it somehow steals a 2nd BCS bid. The SEC only has 8 affiliations, and while it almost certainly will get 2 BCS teams this year, that’s still 9 affiliations for possibly 11 teams.
I was going to break this down game by game, but almost every game matters next weekend in these conferences. Remember, teams can be skipped in the bowl pecking order if the lower team has a more attractive fan base. And if the Motor City Bowl is mean-spirited, Indiana might even have 7 wins this year and still not earn a bowl bid! The drought may continue.
Oh, and don’t expect the other conferences to give a bid up.
ACC: At least 8, and possibly 9 teams are eligible with only 8 affiliations. (Miami could be a 10th if they could upset Virginia Tech or BC, but given that Miami just lost 48-0 to Virginia, I think they won’t be eligible this year.) Key Game: Maryland vs NC State
Big 12: Probably 9 teams with only 8 affiliations. The Big 12 is almost guaranteed to get a BCS at large though, so they’ll be OK. Key Game: Colorado vs Nebraska, winner is bowl-less.
Big East: 5 or 6 teams with 5 affiliations. The wild card is Louisville. Will Louisville beat Rutgers or South Florida?
Pac 10: Five are qualified already with 5 affiliations. Assuming they get a BCS bid that opens up one more slot, but Washington St., UCLA, and Arizona can still keep it within the Pac10 by finishing strong. Washington St. may actually have the best shot at that since UCLA and Arizona each finish with 2 ranked teams.
Oh, and don't forget the MWC. BYU has been on a roll, but here comes Utah. In CUSA..., OK I'm going to stop and go to bed now. Can't wait for next weekend!