Friday, November 2, 2007

The Terrific 10

Before I present my season basketball preview, let me catch up on the college football. We’re now down to 5 undefeated and 7 one-loss teams. Assuming Hawaii and Boise St. have no real chance at the national title game, that’s 4 undefeated teams, and 6 one-loss teams.

Ohio St. – Wisconsin, Illinois, at Michigan
Boston College – Florida St., at Maryland, at Clemson, Miami, ACC Champ?
Arizona St. – at Oregon, at UCLA, USC, Arizona
Kansas – Nebraska, at Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Missouri, Big 12 Champ?

LSU – at Alabama, Louisiana Tech, at Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Champ?
Oregon – Arizona St., at Arizona, at UCLA, Oregon St.
Oklahoma – Texas A&M, Baylor, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., Big 12 Champ?
West Virginia – Louisville, at Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh
Missouri – at Colorado, Texas A&M, at Kansas St., at Kansas, Big 12 Champ?
Connecticut – Rutgers, at Cincinnati, Syracuse, at West Virginia

I don’t see any of the undefeated teams staying undefeated. Ohio St. plays the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th place teams in the Big Ten. For BC, Miami and Florida St. aren’t what they once were, but even Maryland is no gimme. Arizona St. still plays the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place team in the Pac 10. And Kansas may have to beat two one-loss teams to win the Big 12.

That said, I do see the one loss teams having some success. If LSU wins at Alabama, there’s a very good chance they are playing for the national title game in the SEC title game. And even though Oregon plays some tough games, if they beat Arizona St. this weekend, they’d have to be considered a favorite to face LSU in that game. Oklahoma and West Virginia may find that it doesn’t matter what they do from here on out, but Oklahoma will have a better chance to impress the computers than West Virginia. Looks like controversy ahead as usual.

Even more fun than the national title race is the bowl race. It looks like a record number of teams could be qualified for bowls. I’ll have a more detailed looks in the upcoming weeks, but last week’s victory by Iowa could have sealed a bowl for Iowa while costing Michigan St. Michigan St. will not be favored in any of its remaining games and could easily end up 5-7. Meanwhile, Iowa plays Minnesota and a MAC team and should have a pretty clear path to 6-6. But if 9 or 10 teams reach 6 wins, who gets the bids? It should be fun to sort it all out.