Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Coaching Summary

The ultimate goal is to qualify for the NCAA tournament and win in the NCAA tournament. These rankings separate out how coaches earn their NCAA wins. The model determines whether the wins were earned in the recruiting process, the regular season by developing players, or in the post-season.

I felt it was important to develop this model to have a metric when evaluating coaching moves. Was the coach hired by a major school good at developing players? Did he have a system that was sucessful in the post-season? These rankings can answer these questions and also point out the coaches that are on the hot-seat.

Check out the April archive for a complete description of how the coach rating was developed.

If you find this website over the summer and want to email me, try the blog email dlhanner@gmail.com. (Remember the second letter is an “L” and not a one.) I won’t check it everyday, but I will respond eventually. Otherwise, see you this Fall!

W+A is NCAA tournament wins and appearances over the last 5 years.

Last 5 Years Recruiting:
A = Enough Talent to Win Multiple Games in the Tournament
B = Enough Talent to Win in the Tournament
C = Enough Talent to Make the Tournament
D = Enough Talent to Make the NIT
F = Non NIT Talent

While some coaches win by recruiting the top talent, coaches can also win tournament games by developing players and earning wins beyond those expected by talent. I take "actual wins" minus "wins expected from talent" and determine whether the extra wins were earned in the regular season by earning a higher than expected tournament seed (REG), or in the post-season by winning more games than predicted by seed (POST).

The REG and POST ratings reflect ALL colleges where the individual coached in the last 5 years. The RECR rating is the rating at the current college only. I throw out the first year at the current college for coaches that moved. I do not list a recruiting rank for coaches that have moved in the last three years since recruiting is likely to be different in the new job.

ACC              TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Roy Williams     N. Carolina 21 A+  3.06  3.80    
Mike Krzyzewski  Duke        15 A   1.86 -3.13    
Al Skinner       B. College   9 D   7.24 -0.17    
Paul Hewitt      G. Tech      9 B  -1.41  2.41    
Gary Williams    Maryland     7 B  -0.86 -0.30    
Skip Prosser     W. Forest    7 C+  2.31 -2.38    
Dave Leitao      Virginia     4    -0.60 -0.39    
Seth Greenberg   V. Tech      2 D   0.27 -0.17    
Oliver Purnell   Clemson      1 C- -0.45 -1.52    
Sidney Lowe      NC State     0    -1.47  0.00    
Frank Haith      Miami (FL)   0    -2.22  0.00    
Leonard Hamilton Florida St.  0 B- -7.81  0.00    

Some of the best recruiters in the country (Coach K, Roy Williams, Gary Williams, and Paul Hewitt) and one of the best coaches at developing diamonds in the rough (Al Skinner). Skip Prosser has had some good years and some bad, but plenty of disappointing tournaments. The jury is still out on the rest.
Hot Seat in 2008: Leonard Hamilton has had too much talent to not make the NCAA tournament.

Big 10           TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Thad Matta       Ohio St.    14     6.83  1.55    
Tubby Smith      Minnesota   14     4.93 -1.49    
Tom Izzo         Mich. St.   13 B+ -2.18  3.24    
Bruce Webber     Illinois    13 C-  6.06  0.97    
Bo Ryan          Wisconsin   12 C   7.26  0.29    
Kelvin Sampson   Indiana      9     5.94 -2.28    
John Beilein     Michigan     7     1.44  2.87    
Todd Lickliter   Iowa         6     2.66  2.35    
Matt Painter     Purdue       3     2.01 -0.18    
Ed DeChellis     Penn St.     1 F  -0.61 -0.04    
Bill Carmody     Northwestern 0 D  -2.83  0.00

The Big Ten has 5 great regular season coaches (Matta, Smith, Webber, Ryan, and Sampson) and 3 great tournament coaches (Izzo, Beilein, Lickliter).
Hot Seat in 2008: Bill Carmody hasn't been the worst coach in the Big Ten, but now that Amaker and Monson are gone, the spotlight could be on him.

Big 12           TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Rick Barnes      Texas       15 B+  3.71  0.23    
Bill Self        Kansas      12 A   2.68 -2.71    
Bob Knight       Texas Tech   6 D   3.68  0.44    
Mike Anderson    Missouri     6     2.12  1.32    
Mark Turgeon     Texas A&M    3     0.92  1.13    
Greg McDermott   Iowa St.     3     2.60 -1.31    
Jeff Bzdelik     Colorado     1     0.86 -0.24    
Doc Sadler       Nebraska     1     0.47 -0.50    
Jeff Capel III   Oklahoma     1    -0.99 -0.24    
Sean Sutton      Oklahoma St. 0    -1.50  0.00    
Scott Drew       Baylor       0 C  -2.14  0.00    
Frank Martin     Kansas St.   0     0.00  0.00    

Two of the best recruiters in the country (Barnes and Self), one of the best regular season coaches (Knight), and a bunch of newcomers. When Scott Drew of Baylor is one of the longest tenured coaches in the conference, you know there have been a lot of changes lately.
Hot Seat: Most coaches are too new to get rid of, but Bill Self's tournament record could hurt his longevity.

Big East         TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Jim Calhoun      Connecticut 16 B   4.19  2.61    
Jim Boeheim      Syracuse    12 B   0.88  2.35    
Rick Pitino      Louisville  10 B   0.86  1.07    
John Thompson 3  Georgetown   9     3.73  2.52    
Jamie Dixon      Pittsburgh   9 C   5.91 -0.34    
Jay Wright       Villanova    8 C+  0.83 -0.12    
Tom Crean        Marquette    7 C   2.32  0.67    
Bob Huggins      W. Virginia  5     2.53 -1.06    
Mike Brey        Notre Dame   4 B- -3.23 -0.43    
Bobby Gonzalez   Seton Hall   3     0.69  0.34    
Mick Cronin      Cincinnati   2     1.28 -0.66    
Stan Heath       S. Florida   2    -0.86 -1.15    
Tim Welsh        Providence   1 D  -0.20 -1.17    
Jerry Wainwright DePaul       1    -1.47 -0.50    
Fred Hill        Rutgers      0    -0.70  0.00    
Norm Roberts     St. John's   0    -1.97  0.00    

Three HOF-level coaches (Calhoun, Boeheim, Pitino), a young star (Thompson III), three good regular season coaches (Dixon, Crean, Huggins), and a good recruiter (Brey). But the bottom of the conference has a number of unproven new coaches. I'm a litte surprised that Jay Wright isn't rated higher, but I'm probably over-valuing 2006 in my head. While Jay Wright did earn a 1 seed in 2006, he also fell short of the Final Four.
Hot Seat: Mike Brey is depending entirely on his recruited offensive talent. By not valuing defense, he is giving up a lot of tournament wins.

Pac 10           TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Ben Howland      UCLA        15 B+  4.04  3.21    
Lute Olson       Arizona     12 B   2.55 -0.08    
Herb Sendek      Arizona St.  8     0.90  0.36    
Lorenzo Romar    Washington   7 C   3.66 -1.20    
Trent Johnson    Stanford     5     0.79  0.20    
Ernie Kent       Oregon       5 C  -1.92  0.54    
Tim Floyd        USC          3     0.10  0.83    
Ben Braun        California   3 C  -2.47 -0.54    
Tony Bennett     Wash. St.    2     2.55 -0.79    
Jay John         Oregon St.   0 D  -1.83  0.00    

Good regular season coaches in Olson, Romar, and Bennett. But the only post-season heroics have come from Ben Howland who may soon be the best all-around coach. His recruiting is trending upward and will be even better in 2008 which is not yet included in these rankings.
Hot Seat: Not only has Jay John been a poor recruiter, but as I mentioned yesterday, a number of his top players left the school this spring.

SEC              TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
Billy Donovan    Florida     19 A-  2.85  3.73    
Bruce Pearl      Tennessee    9     6.33  0.44    
Mark Gottfried   Alabama      8 B  -0.91  0.90    
John Brady       LSU          7 B- -1.10  0.55    
Billy Gillispie  Kentucky     6     2.80  0.49    
Kevin Stallings  Vanderbilt   6 C   0.24  1.48    
Rick Stansbury   Miss. St.    5 C   2.22 -2.19    
John Pelphrey    Arkansas     1    -0.05 -0.18    
Dennis Felton    Georgia      1 C- -1.77 -0.24    
Dave Odom        S. Carolina  1 D+ -1.84 -0.63    
Andy Kennedy     Mississippi  0    -1.22  0.00    
Jeff Lebo        Auburn       0    -3.07  0.00    

Only Roy Williams can challenge the all-around success of Billy Donovan over the last 5 years
plus two good regular season coaches (Pearl, Gillispie) and two good recruiters (Gottfried, Brady).
Hot Seat: A few years ago Rick Stansbury was a good regular season coach, who kept losing early in the tournament. But the last two years his young team didn't even make the tournament. He could use some forward progress this year.

Next I list the top coaches at Non-BCS schools. Non-BCS schools face a much harder time recruiting, so even a D recruiting rating is impressive.

NonBCS with 3+   TEAM       W+A REC  REG  POST    
John Calipari    Memphis     11 C+  4.54 -0.53    
Mark Few         Gonzaga     10 D   9.82 -2.23    
Chris Lowery     S. Illinois  6     5.23  0.11    
Mark Fox         Nevada       5     4.69 -0.63    
Phil Martelli    St. Joseph's 5 D-  4.91 -1.23    
Bob Thomason     Pacific      5 F   3.44  0.61    
Jim Larranaga    George Mason 5 F   0.55  3.50    
Pat Flannery     Bucknell     4 F   1.82  1.23    
Gregg Marshall   Wichita St.  4     2.59  0.28    
Karl Hobbs       George Wash. 4 D   2.94 -0.65    
Mike Davis       UAB          4    -2.55 -0.13    
Stew Morrill     Utah St.     3 F   2.75 -0.70    
Lon Kruger       UNLV         3     0.88  1.13    
Jim Les          Bradley      3 D-  0.20  1.76    
Dana Altman      Creighton    3 D-  4.34 -2.52    
Fran Dunphy      Temple       3     2.51 -0.78    
Brad Brownell    Wright St.   3     2.98 -1.27    
Sean Miller      Xavier       3     0.58  0.23    
Louis Orr        Bowl. Green  3    -1.17 -0.30    

NonBCS Recruiters        
Bobby Lutz       Charlotte    2 C- -0.24 -1.46    
Steve Fisher     San Diego St 1 D  -1.65 -0.50    

Fired/Left this Year        
Ray Giacoletti   Fired        4     0.80  0.70    
Steve Alford     New Mexico   2     0.04 -2.42    
Ricardo Patton   N. Illinois  1    -1.17 -0.63    
Dan Monson       L. Beach St. 1    -3.00 -0.67    
Robert McCullum  Fired        0    -1.81  0.00    
Tommy Amaker     Harvard      0    -7.21  0.00    

Which conference has the best coaches?
The addition of John Beilein, Tubby Smith, and Todd Lickliter have at least temporarily swung things in the Big 10's favor.

NCAA Wins and Appearances: Big 10 leads with 92 while the Big 12 has only 48.

NCAA Recruiting: The ACC has more A level and B level recruiters while the Big 12 has too many unproven newcomers.

NCAA Regular Season: Big 10 coaches earned 31 extra tournament wins by developing less recruited players over the last 5 years while the ACC and SEC each have 7 coaches who have under-performed in the regular season.

NCAA Tournament: Were it not for the newcomers, the SEC would lead. But Beilein gives the Big 10 the best mark. Bill Self and Coach K bring the Big 12 and ACC to the back of the pack.