The ultimate goal is to qualify for the NCAA tournament and win in the NCAA tournament. These rankings separate out how coaches earn their NCAA wins. The model determines whether the wins were earned in the recruiting process, the regular season by developing players, or in the post-season.
I felt it was important to develop this model to have a metric when evaluating coaching moves. Was the coach hired by a major school good at developing players? Did he have a system that was sucessful in the post-season? These rankings can answer these questions and also point out the coaches that are on the hot-seat.
Check out the April archive for a complete description of how the coach rating was developed.
If you find this website over the summer and want to email me, try the blog email firstname.lastname@example.org. (Remember the second letter is an “L” and not a one.) I won’t check it everyday, but I will respond eventually. Otherwise, see you this Fall!
W+A is NCAA tournament wins and appearances over the last 5 years.
Last 5 Years Recruiting:
A = Enough Talent to Win Multiple Games in the Tournament
B = Enough Talent to Win in the Tournament
C = Enough Talent to Make the Tournament
D = Enough Talent to Make the NIT
F = Non NIT Talent
While some coaches win by recruiting the top talent, coaches can also win tournament games by developing players and earning wins beyond those expected by talent. I take "actual wins" minus "wins expected from talent" and determine whether the extra wins were earned in the regular season by earning a higher than expected tournament seed (REG), or in the post-season by winning more games than predicted by seed (POST).
The REG and POST ratings reflect ALL colleges where the individual coached in the last 5 years. The RECR rating is the rating at the current college only. I throw out the first year at the current college for coaches that moved. I do not list a recruiting rank for coaches that have moved in the last three years since recruiting is likely to be different in the new job.
ACC TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Roy Williams N. Carolina 21 A+ 3.06 3.80
Mike Krzyzewski Duke 15 A 1.86 -3.13
Al Skinner B. College 9 D 7.24 -0.17
Paul Hewitt G. Tech 9 B -1.41 2.41
Gary Williams Maryland 7 B -0.86 -0.30
Skip Prosser W. Forest 7 C+ 2.31 -2.38
Dave Leitao Virginia 4 -0.60 -0.39
Seth Greenberg V. Tech 2 D 0.27 -0.17
Oliver Purnell Clemson 1 C- -0.45 -1.52
Sidney Lowe NC State 0 -1.47 0.00
Frank Haith Miami (FL) 0 -2.22 0.00
Leonard Hamilton Florida St. 0 B- -7.81 0.00
Some of the best recruiters in the country (Coach K, Roy Williams, Gary Williams, and Paul Hewitt) and one of the best coaches at developing diamonds in the rough (Al Skinner). Skip Prosser has had some good years and some bad, but plenty of disappointing tournaments. The jury is still out on the rest.
Hot Seat in 2008: Leonard Hamilton has had too much talent to not make the NCAA tournament.
Big 10 TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Thad Matta Ohio St. 14 6.83 1.55
Tubby Smith Minnesota 14 4.93 -1.49
Tom Izzo Mich. St. 13 B+ -2.18 3.24
Bruce Webber Illinois 13 C- 6.06 0.97
Bo Ryan Wisconsin 12 C 7.26 0.29
Kelvin Sampson Indiana 9 5.94 -2.28
John Beilein Michigan 7 1.44 2.87
Todd Lickliter Iowa 6 2.66 2.35
Matt Painter Purdue 3 2.01 -0.18
Ed DeChellis Penn St. 1 F -0.61 -0.04
Bill Carmody Northwestern 0 D -2.83 0.00
The Big Ten has 5 great regular season coaches (Matta, Smith, Webber, Ryan, and Sampson) and 3 great tournament coaches (Izzo, Beilein, Lickliter).
Hot Seat in 2008: Bill Carmody hasn't been the worst coach in the Big Ten, but now that Amaker and Monson are gone, the spotlight could be on him.
Big 12 TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Rick Barnes Texas 15 B+ 3.71 0.23
Bill Self Kansas 12 A 2.68 -2.71
Bob Knight Texas Tech 6 D 3.68 0.44
Mike Anderson Missouri 6 2.12 1.32
Mark Turgeon Texas A&M 3 0.92 1.13
Greg McDermott Iowa St. 3 2.60 -1.31
Jeff Bzdelik Colorado 1 0.86 -0.24
Doc Sadler Nebraska 1 0.47 -0.50
Jeff Capel III Oklahoma 1 -0.99 -0.24
Sean Sutton Oklahoma St. 0 -1.50 0.00
Scott Drew Baylor 0 C -2.14 0.00
Frank Martin Kansas St. 0 0.00 0.00
Two of the best recruiters in the country (Barnes and Self), one of the best regular season coaches (Knight), and a bunch of newcomers. When Scott Drew of Baylor is one of the longest tenured coaches in the conference, you know there have been a lot of changes lately.
Hot Seat: Most coaches are too new to get rid of, but Bill Self's tournament record could hurt his longevity.
Big East TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Jim Calhoun Connecticut 16 B 4.19 2.61
Jim Boeheim Syracuse 12 B 0.88 2.35
Rick Pitino Louisville 10 B 0.86 1.07
John Thompson 3 Georgetown 9 3.73 2.52
Jamie Dixon Pittsburgh 9 C 5.91 -0.34
Jay Wright Villanova 8 C+ 0.83 -0.12
Tom Crean Marquette 7 C 2.32 0.67
Bob Huggins W. Virginia 5 2.53 -1.06
Mike Brey Notre Dame 4 B- -3.23 -0.43
Bobby Gonzalez Seton Hall 3 0.69 0.34
Mick Cronin Cincinnati 2 1.28 -0.66
Stan Heath S. Florida 2 -0.86 -1.15
Tim Welsh Providence 1 D -0.20 -1.17
Jerry Wainwright DePaul 1 -1.47 -0.50
Fred Hill Rutgers 0 -0.70 0.00
Norm Roberts St. John's 0 -1.97 0.00
Three HOF-level coaches (Calhoun, Boeheim, Pitino), a young star (Thompson III), three good regular season coaches (Dixon, Crean, Huggins), and a good recruiter (Brey). But the bottom of the conference has a number of unproven new coaches. I'm a litte surprised that Jay Wright isn't rated higher, but I'm probably over-valuing 2006 in my head. While Jay Wright did earn a 1 seed in 2006, he also fell short of the Final Four.
Hot Seat: Mike Brey is depending entirely on his recruited offensive talent. By not valuing defense, he is giving up a lot of tournament wins.
Pac 10 TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Ben Howland UCLA 15 B+ 4.04 3.21
Lute Olson Arizona 12 B 2.55 -0.08
Herb Sendek Arizona St. 8 0.90 0.36
Lorenzo Romar Washington 7 C 3.66 -1.20
Trent Johnson Stanford 5 0.79 0.20
Ernie Kent Oregon 5 C -1.92 0.54
Tim Floyd USC 3 0.10 0.83
Ben Braun California 3 C -2.47 -0.54
Tony Bennett Wash. St. 2 2.55 -0.79
Jay John Oregon St. 0 D -1.83 0.00
Good regular season coaches in Olson, Romar, and Bennett. But the only post-season heroics have come from Ben Howland who may soon be the best all-around coach. His recruiting is trending upward and will be even better in 2008 which is not yet included in these rankings.
Hot Seat: Not only has Jay John been a poor recruiter, but as I mentioned yesterday, a number of his top players left the school this spring.
SEC TEAM W+A REC REG POST
Billy Donovan Florida 19 A- 2.85 3.73
Bruce Pearl Tennessee 9 6.33 0.44
Mark Gottfried Alabama 8 B -0.91 0.90
John Brady LSU 7 B- -1.10 0.55
Billy Gillispie Kentucky 6 2.80 0.49
Kevin Stallings Vanderbilt 6 C 0.24 1.48
Rick Stansbury Miss. St. 5 C 2.22 -2.19
John Pelphrey Arkansas 1 -0.05 -0.18
Dennis Felton Georgia 1 C- -1.77 -0.24
Dave Odom S. Carolina 1 D+ -1.84 -0.63
Andy Kennedy Mississippi 0 -1.22 0.00
Jeff Lebo Auburn 0 -3.07 0.00
Only Roy Williams can challenge the all-around success of Billy Donovan over the last 5 years
plus two good regular season coaches (Pearl, Gillispie) and two good recruiters (Gottfried, Brady).
Hot Seat: A few years ago Rick Stansbury was a good regular season coach, who kept losing early in the tournament. But the last two years his young team didn't even make the tournament. He could use some forward progress this year.
Next I list the top coaches at Non-BCS schools. Non-BCS schools face a much harder time recruiting, so even a D recruiting rating is impressive.
NonBCS with 3+ TEAM W+A REC REG POST
John Calipari Memphis 11 C+ 4.54 -0.53
Mark Few Gonzaga 10 D 9.82 -2.23
Chris Lowery S. Illinois 6 5.23 0.11
Mark Fox Nevada 5 4.69 -0.63
Phil Martelli St. Joseph's 5 D- 4.91 -1.23
Bob Thomason Pacific 5 F 3.44 0.61
Jim Larranaga George Mason 5 F 0.55 3.50
Pat Flannery Bucknell 4 F 1.82 1.23
Gregg Marshall Wichita St. 4 2.59 0.28
Karl Hobbs George Wash. 4 D 2.94 -0.65
Mike Davis UAB 4 -2.55 -0.13
Stew Morrill Utah St. 3 F 2.75 -0.70
Lon Kruger UNLV 3 0.88 1.13
Jim Les Bradley 3 D- 0.20 1.76
Dana Altman Creighton 3 D- 4.34 -2.52
Fran Dunphy Temple 3 2.51 -0.78
Brad Brownell Wright St. 3 2.98 -1.27
Sean Miller Xavier 3 0.58 0.23
Louis Orr Bowl. Green 3 -1.17 -0.30
Bobby Lutz Charlotte 2 C- -0.24 -1.46
Steve Fisher San Diego St 1 D -1.65 -0.50
Fired/Left this Year
Ray Giacoletti Fired 4 0.80 0.70
Steve Alford New Mexico 2 0.04 -2.42
Ricardo Patton N. Illinois 1 -1.17 -0.63
Dan Monson L. Beach St. 1 -3.00 -0.67
Robert McCullum Fired 0 -1.81 0.00
Tommy Amaker Harvard 0 -7.21 0.00
Which conference has the best coaches?
The addition of John Beilein, Tubby Smith, and Todd Lickliter have at least temporarily swung things in the Big 10's favor.
NCAA Wins and Appearances: Big 10 leads with 92 while the Big 12 has only 48.
NCAA Recruiting: The ACC has more A level and B level recruiters while the Big 12 has too many unproven newcomers.
NCAA Regular Season: Big 10 coaches earned 31 extra tournament wins by developing less recruited players over the last 5 years while the ACC and SEC each have 7 coaches who have under-performed in the regular season.
NCAA Tournament: Were it not for the newcomers, the SEC would lead. But Beilein gives the Big 10 the best mark. Bill Self and Coach K bring the Big 12 and ACC to the back of the pack.