If you are like me and have been distracted by college football and ignoring college basketball, I have good news. Today’s column is all about catching up on the early part of the basketball season. First off, you haven’t necessarily missed that much this year. There have been about 1600 games played so far, but only 89 of those were between BCS teams. (To put this in perspective, in January or February it only takes about 10 days to get in this many BCS vs BCS games.) Here are a few highlights:
Best Comeback: Villanova defeats LSU after trailing by 21 with 9 minutes left.
Biggest Upset: Mercer defeats USC
Best Coaching Move: Tim Floyd uses the triangle and two to slow down Memphis (but still loses.)
Most Impressive Win: Texas at UCLA
Best Player: DJ Augustin. His impressive 126.6 ORtng isn’t even the best on his own team, but he had one of his best nights (19 points) at UCLA. Scoring in the big game is the sign of a true star.
USC’s loss to Mercer probably won’t matter at the end of the year. But what if USC ends up 9-9 in Pac10 play and 4-6 in the last 10? Then that loss might be the factor that keeps them out of the tournament. Again, it is a long shot, but you never know which games will matter at the end of the year. With this in mind, here’s a snapshot of 22 of the biggest upsets on the season to date:
The Bad Losses
11/17 Alaska Fairbanks 62 Oregon St. 60
11/23 Rider 82 Penn St. 73
11/10 Mercer 96 Southern California 81
11/25 St. Peter's 65 Rutgers 58
11/09 NC Greensboro 83 Georgia Tech 74
11/24 North Carolina A&T 96 DePaul 93
11/07 Gardner Webb 84 Kentucky 68
12/01 Harvard 62 Michigan 51
12/01 Centenary 70 Texas Tech 66
11/30 Louisiana Monroe 72 Iowa 67
11/24 Brown 73 Northwestern 67
12/08 Stephen F. Austin 66 Oklahoma 62
11/17 Siena 79 Stanford 67
11/18 Winthrop 79 Georgia Tech 73
11/14 North Texas 82 Oklahoma St. 73
11/14 Sam Houston St. 56 Texas Tech 54
11/18 New Orleans 65 North Carolina St. 63
12/12 New Orleans 67 Colorado 65
11/09 Belmont 86 Cincinnati 75
11/19 Belmont 85 Alabama 83
12/05 Western Kentucky 69 Nebraska 62
11/24 Western Kentucky 73 Michigan 69
-Doug Gottlieb said at the time that Rider was more talented than Penn St. I’m not quite buying that. But because of Penn St.’s poor defense and good offense, they will definitely be a high variance team.
-Georgia Tech really misses Crittenton and Young, but this team can still be a factor in the ACC.
-What was Michigan thinking playing former coach Tommy Amaker at Harvard?
-Bob Knight felt flu-like symptoms in Texas Tech’s loss at Centenary. But how did he really feel after the game? (What’s the craziest part about the loss? It actually suggests that Bob Knight makes a difference. His team led at halftime, but with Knight no longer on the sidelines in the second half, Texas Tech lost the lead and the game.)
-Is Sam Houston St. really this good? No. Don't look at the RPI yet. Remember Appalachian St. last year? They beat Virginia and Vanderbilt and were #7 in the RPI. Then they lost to Elon and it was all over.
-Is Winthrop really this good? Yes, but this is still a bad loss for Georgia Tech. The sad fact for all of the winners listed above is that they play in conferences that are RPI killers. The Sun Belt is having a better year, but Western Kentucky’s RPI is going to plummet just for playing half the teams in its league. And if the Hilltoppers should lose to some of weaker teams in their league, good night.
For mid-majors on the other hand, wins against BCS teams are priceless. A top 3 finish in a mid-major league coupled with a pair of marquee wins against BCS opponents is often a ticket to the big dance. With that in mind, let's take a look at the mid-major conferences making some noise in the early going:
Mid-Major Wins to Brag About
WAC
11/24 Utah St. 75 Iowa 62
CAA
12/02 Virginia Commonwealth 85 Maryland 76
11/22 George Mason 87 Kansas St. 77
11/25 George Mason 69 South Carolina 68
MAC
11/11 Bowling Green 69 Cincinnati 67
11/13 Buffalo 76 South Florida 69
12/12 Ohio 61 Maryland 55
11/25 Miami OH 67 Mississippi St. 60
MWC
11/09 New Mexico 54 Colorado 47
12/08 Wyoming 73 Colorado 64
11/15 Colorado St. 69 Oregon St. 56
11/23 Brigham Young 78 Louisville 76
MVC
11/27 Northern Iowa 61 Iowa St. 48
12/08 Illinois St. 62 Cincinnati 52
11/23 Southern Illinois 63 Mississippi St. 49
12/05 Drake 79 Iowa St. 44
12/14 Drake 56 Iowa 51
11/14 Bradley 65 Iowa St. 56
11/23 Bradley 67 Iowa 56
11/09 Creighton 74 DePaul 62
11/24 Creighton 74 Nebraska 62
Horizon
11/17 Cleveland St. 69 Florida St. 68
11/09 Cleveland St. 73 South Florida 70
11/23 Butler 84 Virginia Tech 78
11/21 Butler 79 Michigan 65
12/01 Butler 65 Ohio St. 46
11/24 Butler 81 Texas Tech 71
WCC
11/20 St. Mary's 99 Oregon 87
12/01 St. Mary's 85 Seton Hall 70
11/24 Gonzaga 82 Virginia Tech 64
12/01 Gonzaga 85 Connecticut 82
A10
12/01 Saint Joseph's 79 Penn St. 67
11/29 Charlotte 63 Wake Forest 59
12/08 Dayton 70 Louisville 65
12/12 Massachusetts 83 Boston College 80
11/28 Massachusetts 107 Syracuse 100
11/16 Rhode Island 74 South Florida 67
12/04 Rhode Island 77 Providence 60
12/08 Rhode Island 91 Syracuse 89
12/12 Xavier 64 Cincinnati 59
11/24 Xavier 80 Indiana 65
CUSA
12/08 East Carolina 75 North Carolina St. 69
12/01 UAB 73 Cincinnati 54
11/09 Tulane 77 Auburn 62
11/25 Central Florida 70 Penn St. 59
11/15 Memphis 63 Oklahoma 53
11/16 Memphis 81 Connecticut 70
12/04 Memphis 62 Southern California 58
Utah St. has very little shot at an at-large bid because the WAC has fallen apart this year. The league remained strong even after the defection of the MWC teams 7 years ago, but things have gone completely wrong this year. The WAC is currently 26th in conference RPI, and the lack of quality wins is a key reason. Other than the win over Iowa listed above, the best win for the conference is probably New Mexico St.’s victory over #116 New Mexico. Uggh.
One factor in the WAC’s struggles may be coaching turnover. There are three new coaches in the WAC this year in Bob Nash at Hawaii, Kerry Rupp at Louisiana Tech, and Marvin Menzies at New Mexico St. While these coaches may need some time to build their programs, other teams are just disappointing. Stew Morrill’s Utah St. team brought back a talented senior guard in Jaycee Carroll, but despite Carroll’s incredibly efficient play (129.6 ORtng while taking 22.9% of his teams shots), Utah St. has a disappointing 5-5 record.
Nevada lost Sessions and Fazekas in the off-season and can be forgiven for a slow WAC start this year, but without them, no one is winning. Consider that last year the league had 5 teams with RPIs in the Top 100. Right now Nevada leads the way at #107. If the WAC teams don’t start winning some non-conference games, they could be a one-bid league with the winner earning a 14 or 15 seed. Ouch.
Better news elsewhere, particularly the Atlantic 10. I’ve already seen several articles touting that the league is back. That A10 still has way too many teams for my liking, but with some very good teams at the top, at least the A10 will be back in the discussion this year.
Finally, Wright St. may have beaten Butler already in Horizon play, but Cleveland St. is the Horizon team picking up the quality non-conference victories.
Again, I can’t promise all of these wins are going to be meaningful, but some of them will turn out to be critical when making decisions on selection Sunday. Any true prognosticator of the tournament field should have the above games emblazoned in their head come March.
Besides the Small Conference teams and Mid-Major teams, the BCS teams also played a few games against each other. Through Friday Dec. 14th, there were 88 non-conference games between BCS teams. To no one’s surprise, the ACC is leading the way in the BCS showdowns.
BCS vs BCS
22-12 ACC
18-13 Big12
15-14 BigEast
12-12 Pac10
12-20 Big10
09-17 SEC
I should probably break these wins apart by level of quality. After all, a win over Indiana is a lot different from a win over Iowa this year. That said, I still think it is way to early to start drawing conclusions about teams based on the RPI. Consider what we saw last year. The following teams all had non-conference RPIs in the top 30 and none of them made the tournament: Clemson, Florida St., Alabama, Oklahoma St., Utah St., Air Force, Dayton, Bradley, Drexel, and Appalachian St. On the other hand, the following teams all had non-conference RPIs over 90 and still made the tournament: Stanford, USC, Texas, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Virginia.
In other words, there is still a lot to be determined. But for those of you interested in the first 88 games, here's the rest of my early season cheat sheet:
11/28 Maryland 69 Illinois 61
11/19 Georgia Tech 70 Notre Dame 69
11/26 Wake Forest 56 Iowa 47
11/28 Boston College 77 Michigan 64
11/17 Virginia 75 Arizona 72
11/27 Virginia 94 Northwestern 52
11/23 North Carolina St. 63 South Carolina 61
11/25 North Carolina St. 69 Villanova 68
11/23 Florida St. 65 Florida 51
11/27 Florida St. 75 Minnesota 61
12/01 North Carolina 86 Kentucky 77
11/28 North Carolina 66 Ohio St. 55
11/27 Clemson 61 Purdue 58
11/15 Clemson 84 Mississippi St. 82
12/01 Clemson 85 South Carolina 74
12/02 Miami FL 66 St. John's 47
11/18 Miami FL 64 Providence 58
12/13 Miami FL 64 Mississippi St. 58
11/21 Duke 77 Marquette 73
12/08 Duke 95 Michigan 67
11/27 Duke 82 Wisconsin 58
11/20 Duke 79 Illinois 66
11/20 Minnesota 68 Iowa St. 58
11/21 Ohio St. 79 Syracuse 65
12/08 Penn St. 89 Seton Hall 86
11/28 Penn St. 66 Virginia Tech 61
11/21 Illinois 65 Oklahoma St. 49
11/19 Illinois 77 Arizona St. 54
11/17 Wisconsin 78 Colorado 52
11/24 Wisconsin 68 Georgia 49
12/08 Indiana 70 Kentucky 51
11/27 Indiana 83 Georgia Tech 79
11/28 Michigan St. 81 North Carolina St. 58
11/19 Michigan St. 86 Missouri 83
12/08 Georgia 72 Wake Forest 50
11/17 Florida 88 Rutgers 63
11/28 Arkansas 94 Missouri 91
11/23 Tennessee 74 West Virginia 72
11/22 South Carolina 74 Penn St. 67
12/06 South Carolina 68 Providence 67
12/01 Vanderbilt 92 Georgia Tech 79
12/12 Vanderbilt 91 DePaul 85
12/05 Vanderbilt 83 Wake Forest 80
12/09 Kansas St. 82 California 75
11/18 Baylor 68 Notre Dame 64
12/09 Nebraska 63 Rutgers 51
12/02 Nebraska 62 Arizona St. 47
11/30 Iowa St. 71 Oregon St. 64
12/08 Iowa St. 56 Iowa 47
11/19 Oklahoma St. 83 Louisiana St. 77
12/01 Oklahoma St. 96 Washington 71
11/20 Missouri 84 Maryland 70
12/08 Missouri 73 Purdue 63
11/28 Texas A&M 76 Alabama 63
11/21 Texas A&M 77 Washington 63
11/23 Texas A&M 70 Ohio St. 47
12/08 Kansas 84 DePaul 66
11/25 Kansas 76 Arizona 72
12/02 Kansas 59 Southern California 55
11/24 Texas 97 Tennessee 78
12/02 Texas 63 UCLA 61
11/17 DePaul 54 Northwestern 53
11/18 South Florida 68 Florida St. 67
12/05 West Virginia 88 Auburn 59
11/24 Seton Hall 74 Virginia 60
12/08 Pittsburgh 75 Washington 74
12/04 Notre Dame 68 Kansas St. 59
12/06 Villanova 68 Louisiana St. 67
12/01 Providence 98 Boston College 89
11/16 Providence 67 Arkansas 51
12/05 Syracuse 70 Virginia 68
11/23 Syracuse 91 Washington 85
12/08 Marquette 81 Wisconsin 76
11/20 Marquette 91 Oklahoma St. 61
12/05 Georgetown 70 Alabama 60
11/15 Georgetown 74 Michigan 52
11/21 Arizona St. 87 Louisiana St. 84
12/01 California 86 Missouri 72
11/29 Oregon 80 Kansas St. 77
11/30 Washington St. 67 Baylor 64
11/15 Stanford 71 Northwestern 60
12/02 Stanford 67 Colorado 43
11/17 Southern California 85 South Carolina 75
11/29 Southern California 66 Oklahoma 55
12/02 Arizona 78 Texas A&M 67
12/08 Arizona 78 Illinois 72
11/19 UCLA 71 Maryland 59
11/20 UCLA 68 Michigan St. 63
I haven’t been able to adequately rant about how impressive Duke looks to me this season. Duke may be younger and smaller than North Carolina, but they have more McDonald’s All-Americans, and the hype for this team is only getting started. Duke’s also the only team listed above with 4 wins against other BCS teams. Not a bad start for a team that lost in the first round last year. I had Duke at #5 in my preseason tournament predictions, but I felt so embarrassed about this at the time that I simply listed them as one of the Elite Eight teams without revealing their actual rank. I feel a lot better about that prediction today.