Notable college baseball tournaments this week:
8 Teams, Double Elimination
SEC
Big East
CUSA
Southern Conference
Sun Belt
Southland
The Southern Conference tournament could be the most exciting with at least 4 bubble teams and no dominant team. Any of the teams could either win the tournament title, do enough to secure an NCAA bid, or end their season early.
8 Teams, 2 Division Round Robin
ACC
Big 12
I understand why the ACC and Big 12 chose the round robin format. They have a lot of NCAA teams and this way everyone gets to play at least 3 games, regardless of outcome. But isn’t a double elimination format more fun? Nobody likes tie-breakers.
6 Teams, Double Elimination, No Byes
WAC
The traditional 6 team tournament looks a little confusing in scenario-bracket form. Do you see the loser advancing in game 9 in the bottom scenario? Let’s see if I can explain it more clearly in words, because the traditional 6 team tournament is my favorite random baseball tournament. After the first two rounds there are basically two scenarios:
Scenario 1: 2 teams at 2-0 and 2 teams at 1-1
This scenario is easy. You simply have a winner’s bracket and loser’s bracket.
Scenario 2: 1 team at 2-0 and 4 teams at 1-1
Having an odd number of teams is never ideal. The traditional format is to have the 1-1 teams pair up and play. This leaves you with a team at 2-0 and two teams at 2-1. Next the 2-0 team plays each of the 2-1 teams. If the 2-0 team beats both opponents, they are champ. If they lose one, they re-match with the team they lost to. If they lose both, they are out and the other two teams play for the title. That’s exactly what they have drawn and it seems a lot less confusing in word form.
6 Teams, Double Elimination, With Byes
Big Ten
MWC
The Big Ten and MWC are not quite at the elite level in college baseball. They have some very good teams, but they want to ensure their best teams advance. And much like the WCC and Horizon league in college basketball, they alter the 6 team format and give byes to the best teams to try to ensure that the best teams advance.
8 Teams
Big South
Now here’s a complicated tournament format.
Day 1 Single Elimination: 5 vs 8, 6 vs 7
Day 2+ Double Elimination, 6 Teams, No Additional Byes
Elsewhere
Once again, the WCC will feature a championship series instead of a tournament. Gonzaga faces Loyola Marymount for the second weekend in a row. And the Pac-10 and Big West are just playing regular season games this week.
Celebrate the Non-Championship Seasons
The Washington Capitals were blown out in game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, losing 6-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Capitals had a better regular season record than the Penguins, led the series 2-0, and now lost convincingly on their home ice to lose the series. And yet they received a standing ovation at the end of the game. It was one of those “Grinch who stole Christmas” moments. It didn’t matter that the Capitals lost and played poorly. The fans cheered just the same.
In pro sports in 2009, I didn’t know that kind of support was even possible. It speaks to the importance of expectations. The Capitals have perhaps the best young team they’ve ever fielded and they’ve surged from being one of the worst teams in the league to at least a good playoff team. And people will always cheer a team on the rise.
But it really brings me back to one of my college basketball themes. It is easy to be disgusted in March when your team loses. But remember to celebrate what a team has accomplished even if the last memory is painful. Certainly Villanova fans will remember this Final Four run for years to come. But I also hope Michigan St. fans can cherish this season even if it didn’t end in a national title. I mean, how often do you get to go to the Final Four in your home state?
Basketball Rankings
It is time for the annual tradition where I criticize people for making preseason rankings for 2009-10. This is something editors want to see, but presumably no one wants to write with so much information still up in the air. You see tiny things can make a big difference, like Patrick Paterson withdrawing his name from the NBA draft. Hmm. Where did you have Kentucky? Well, next year the draft soap opera could be over quicker. But I still prefer to wait until November before I take any ranking seriously.
See you in the fall for the college football kickoff!
Monday, May 18, 2009
Saturday, April 11, 2009
The Masters is on. (Basketball fans may have seen ads for this.)
Golf has a lot of dead airtime. Consider the long periods of time where they will just show the leaderboard. If ever there was a sport designed for Tivo, this is it.
And yet I’m amazed at how they only give us a snipet of the useful data that’s out there. For example, three players are tied but they are at different places on the golf course. They are undoubtedly not in equivalent position even though the TV leaderboard lists them as equal. One player may face only the final difficult hole, and have no chance to improve. One player may have just finished the hard part of the golf course, and have a favorable finishing stretch. One player may face a large mix of holes the rest of the way. Could we see a numerical representation of this?
Certainly the technology exists. We often see graphics that say, this par 3 hole has averaged 3.17, this par 4 has averaged 4.25, this part 5 has averaged 4.84. We could list each golfer’s current number of strokes plus the number of strokes it takes an average golfer to finish the course from that point on. The total would be the projected score for each player.
Would this be better than the leaderboard? Maybe not, but in 3 ½ hours of airtime, it would be something different to show. Of course there might be reasons to dislike this approach. Should the golfer playing the best golf in the field be projected to do as well as the average player? But I’d still like to see some of golf’s sabermetrics be used a little more heavily.
There’s been some great stuff happening in basketball, but I don’t have the time right now to post it on a daily basis, so you’ll have to look elsewhere for your early entry and coaching change gossip. Maybe I’ll have more later in the spring.
And yet I’m amazed at how they only give us a snipet of the useful data that’s out there. For example, three players are tied but they are at different places on the golf course. They are undoubtedly not in equivalent position even though the TV leaderboard lists them as equal. One player may face only the final difficult hole, and have no chance to improve. One player may have just finished the hard part of the golf course, and have a favorable finishing stretch. One player may face a large mix of holes the rest of the way. Could we see a numerical representation of this?
Certainly the technology exists. We often see graphics that say, this par 3 hole has averaged 3.17, this par 4 has averaged 4.25, this part 5 has averaged 4.84. We could list each golfer’s current number of strokes plus the number of strokes it takes an average golfer to finish the course from that point on. The total would be the projected score for each player.
Would this be better than the leaderboard? Maybe not, but in 3 ½ hours of airtime, it would be something different to show. Of course there might be reasons to dislike this approach. Should the golfer playing the best golf in the field be projected to do as well as the average player? But I’d still like to see some of golf’s sabermetrics be used a little more heavily.
There’s been some great stuff happening in basketball, but I don’t have the time right now to post it on a daily basis, so you’ll have to look elsewhere for your early entry and coaching change gossip. Maybe I’ll have more later in the spring.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
PASE
There’s just one game left and either the ACC or Big 10 will win it.
So how have the conferences performed in the tournament so far? I take the average number of historical wins for each seed. Then based on the seeds each conference received, I add up the expected number of wins for each conference. Then I compare actual performance to expected performance.
Diff Conf ActW ExpW
2.82 Big12 11 8.18
1.82 Big10 9 7.18
0.62 BigEa 17 16.38
0.53 A10 3 2.47
0.51 WCC 2 1.49
0.17 Horiz 1 0.83
0.01 Pac10 6 5.99
-0.41 CUSA 2 2.41
-0.50 SEC 1 1.50
-1.83 MWC 0 1.83
-2.88 ACC 8 10.88
The Big East had high expectations with so many 1 seeds, and despite not sending an entrant to the Championship game, still managed to exceed the expected number of wins in the tournament.
But the big story was the Big 12 where none of the teams flopped. The 7/8/9 seeds Texas, Oklahoma St., and Texas A&M all won in the first round; Kansas reached the Sweet Sixteen; and Missouri and Oklahoma reached the Regional Final. The casual fan probably was more impressed with the Big East’s 17 wins, but many of those wins were earned during the regular season when the top teams in the Big East put together fantastic resumes and earned easy tournament paths. The Big 12 had a lot of tough games early in the NCAA tournament and delivered.
The true flopping was happening in the ACC, where outside of Maryland’s first round W, the only thing to be proud of was North Carolina’s grand march. Many of the rating systems had the ACC ahead or equal to the Big East this year, but when it counted the most, the ACC teams couldn’t get it done.
Note: The conferences not listed in the chart above were also about 2 games under expectations as a whole. Not only were smaller schools not given at large bids to the NCAA tournament this year, they didn’t spring shocking upsets either.
Coaching Note: For various reasons, I’m not going to update the coach numbers until later this year. But one thing I want to emphasize is that Oliver Purnell of Clemson is becoming the anti-John Beilein. While Beilein continues to make deep runs with middling seeds in every NCAA tournament, Purnell has 0 NCAA tournament wins in 5 appearances, and his team has been favored in many of those games.
Long Season
This season was a season of excess for me. I went to the Old Spice Classic; had season tickets to Georgetown; followed virtually every game for 3 teams; blogged about numerous other games including doing stupid things like live-blogging “the ticker” on ESPN’s interactive Tuesday; and I went to the first and second round NCAA tournament games in Minnesota.
A few notes on this crazy season:
1) I’ve been in the building for 5 of Michigan St.’s games this year (and seen them beat Illinois and Minnesota 5 times on TV.) So I’ve seen at least 10 full Spartans games. That’s pretty insane for someone who isn’t a direct follower of the team.
2) It turns out there is such a thing as too much basketball. Next year I need to find a better way to ration my time so I don’t run out of blog posts in mid-March.
3) In retrospect, the best part of the season for me was probably attending the Old Spice Classic in person. That tournament seemed wide open at the time, and other than Michigan St. shockingly losing to Maryland, the field was wide open. The Old Spice Classic field had 6 NCAA tournament teams and 5 teams that went on to win a game in the NCAA tournament
Old Spice Redux
Champ – Gonzaga – Won two games in NCAA tournament
2nd – Tennessee – Lost in first round of NCAA tournament
3rd – Georgetown – Lost in first round of NIT
4th – Maryland – Won one game in NCAA tournament
5th – Michigan St. – Playing in National Championship Game
6th – Oklahoma St. – Won one game in NCAA tournament
7th – Wichita St. – Won one game in CBI tournament
8th – Siena – Won one game in NCAA tournament
I’d like to say I loved the Old Spice Classic because it was wide open. I’d love to say I love the beginning of the year because college basketball teams are new every fall. But I think there’s a more subtle reason that I look back fondly on that weekend. Georgetown went 2-1 in the tournament and raised my expectations. Winning against good teams is fun.
And to everyone who’s team won a game in March, be it DePaul in the Big East tournament, Marquette holding off Utah St. in the first round of the NCAA’s, or Baylor making it to the NIT final, try to look back and enjoy the victories.
Almost every team ends the season with a loss, but these are only losing seasons if you don’t appreciate the hard work and effort these athletes have given us.
So how have the conferences performed in the tournament so far? I take the average number of historical wins for each seed. Then based on the seeds each conference received, I add up the expected number of wins for each conference. Then I compare actual performance to expected performance.
Diff Conf ActW ExpW
2.82 Big12 11 8.18
1.82 Big10 9 7.18
0.62 BigEa 17 16.38
0.53 A10 3 2.47
0.51 WCC 2 1.49
0.17 Horiz 1 0.83
0.01 Pac10 6 5.99
-0.41 CUSA 2 2.41
-0.50 SEC 1 1.50
-1.83 MWC 0 1.83
-2.88 ACC 8 10.88
The Big East had high expectations with so many 1 seeds, and despite not sending an entrant to the Championship game, still managed to exceed the expected number of wins in the tournament.
But the big story was the Big 12 where none of the teams flopped. The 7/8/9 seeds Texas, Oklahoma St., and Texas A&M all won in the first round; Kansas reached the Sweet Sixteen; and Missouri and Oklahoma reached the Regional Final. The casual fan probably was more impressed with the Big East’s 17 wins, but many of those wins were earned during the regular season when the top teams in the Big East put together fantastic resumes and earned easy tournament paths. The Big 12 had a lot of tough games early in the NCAA tournament and delivered.
The true flopping was happening in the ACC, where outside of Maryland’s first round W, the only thing to be proud of was North Carolina’s grand march. Many of the rating systems had the ACC ahead or equal to the Big East this year, but when it counted the most, the ACC teams couldn’t get it done.
Note: The conferences not listed in the chart above were also about 2 games under expectations as a whole. Not only were smaller schools not given at large bids to the NCAA tournament this year, they didn’t spring shocking upsets either.
Coaching Note: For various reasons, I’m not going to update the coach numbers until later this year. But one thing I want to emphasize is that Oliver Purnell of Clemson is becoming the anti-John Beilein. While Beilein continues to make deep runs with middling seeds in every NCAA tournament, Purnell has 0 NCAA tournament wins in 5 appearances, and his team has been favored in many of those games.
Long Season
This season was a season of excess for me. I went to the Old Spice Classic; had season tickets to Georgetown; followed virtually every game for 3 teams; blogged about numerous other games including doing stupid things like live-blogging “the ticker” on ESPN’s interactive Tuesday; and I went to the first and second round NCAA tournament games in Minnesota.
A few notes on this crazy season:
1) I’ve been in the building for 5 of Michigan St.’s games this year (and seen them beat Illinois and Minnesota 5 times on TV.) So I’ve seen at least 10 full Spartans games. That’s pretty insane for someone who isn’t a direct follower of the team.
2) It turns out there is such a thing as too much basketball. Next year I need to find a better way to ration my time so I don’t run out of blog posts in mid-March.
3) In retrospect, the best part of the season for me was probably attending the Old Spice Classic in person. That tournament seemed wide open at the time, and other than Michigan St. shockingly losing to Maryland, the field was wide open. The Old Spice Classic field had 6 NCAA tournament teams and 5 teams that went on to win a game in the NCAA tournament
Old Spice Redux
Champ – Gonzaga – Won two games in NCAA tournament
2nd – Tennessee – Lost in first round of NCAA tournament
3rd – Georgetown – Lost in first round of NIT
4th – Maryland – Won one game in NCAA tournament
5th – Michigan St. – Playing in National Championship Game
6th – Oklahoma St. – Won one game in NCAA tournament
7th – Wichita St. – Won one game in CBI tournament
8th – Siena – Won one game in NCAA tournament
I’d like to say I loved the Old Spice Classic because it was wide open. I’d love to say I love the beginning of the year because college basketball teams are new every fall. But I think there’s a more subtle reason that I look back fondly on that weekend. Georgetown went 2-1 in the tournament and raised my expectations. Winning against good teams is fun.
And to everyone who’s team won a game in March, be it DePaul in the Big East tournament, Marquette holding off Utah St. in the first round of the NCAA’s, or Baylor making it to the NIT final, try to look back and enjoy the victories.
Almost every team ends the season with a loss, but these are only losing seasons if you don’t appreciate the hard work and effort these athletes have given us.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
NCAA Tournament, Fun With Numbers
Most of this has been summarized elsewhere, but it is fun to look back.
Through Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Games (58 games)
Fastest Paced Games
Possessions, Teams
87 North Carolina vs Radford
83 Memphis vs Missouri
81 UConn vs Chattanooga
78 North Carolina vs Gonzaga
75 UConn vs Missouri
Slowest Paced Games
56 Florida St vs Wisconsin
57 Arizona St. vs Temple
59 Marquette vs Utah St.
59 West Virginia vs Dayton
59 Gonzaga vs Akron
Interestingly, Gonzaga played a game in both categories.
Let’s now move to the PPP or points per 100 possessions.
Most Impressive Wins
Largest PPP Differential
69.1 UConn defeats Chattanooga
56.4 Louisville defeats Arizona
49.7 North Carolina defeats Radford
40.4 Oklahoma defeats Morgan St.
39.5 UConn defeats Texas A&M
Best Offense
Highest points PPP
148.9 Louisville vs Arizona
140.0 UConn vs Texas A&M
134.4 Memphis vs Maryland
132.2 Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St.
130.8 Gonzaga vs Akron
Worst Offense
Lowest PPP
57.9 Chattanooga vs UConn
60.0 Dayton vs Kansas
63.5 Stephen F. Austin vs Syracuse
67.0 Radford vs North Carolina
73.1 Duke vs Villanova
Who would have guessed that Duke would have had one of the worst offensive performances of the tournament?
Win without defense award
Highest PPP for loser
132.2 over 119.6 Pittsburgh defeats Oklahoma St
118.3 over 115.3 Oklahoma St. defeats Tennessee
117.1 over 114.1 Villanova defeats Pittsburgh
116.3 over 113.5 Gonzaga defeats Western Kentucky
116.8 over 111.1 Missouri defeats Marquette
Win without offense award
Lowest PPP for winner
83.8 over 60.0 Kansas defeats Dayton
85.2 over 63.5 Syracuse defeats Stephen F. Austin
89.3 over 86.9 Siena defeats Ohio St.
93.1 over 76.0 Xavier defeats Wisconsin
95.4 over 87.5 Pittsburgh defeats Xavier
The story of Pittsburgh has been the improved offense (through offensive rebounding). But in this tournament, Pittsburgh’s story was going from one extreme to the other. Pittsburgh won a “no offense” game and went 1-1 in games with “no defense”.
Best eFG%
68.2% Louisville vs Arizona
Worst eFG%
25.0% Dayton vs Kansas
Dayton really played tough in that game against Kansas, but they couldn’t buy a basket.
Best TO%
6.5% Missouri vs Cornell
Worst TO%
31.5% Kansas vs Michigan St.
Michigan St. fans have come to dread the word “turnovers”, but things went well against Kansas.
Best OR%
54.3% Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St.
Worst OR%
12.3% Gonzaga vs North Carolina
A lot of people felt Gonzaga was soft, and this number will back that up.
Best FTR
72.6 Missouri vs Memphis
Worst FTR
8.1 American vs Villanova
Memphis probably thought when the whistles came out early against Missouri that this was good news. How wrong they were.
Through Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Games (58 games)
Fastest Paced Games
Possessions, Teams
87 North Carolina vs Radford
83 Memphis vs Missouri
81 UConn vs Chattanooga
78 North Carolina vs Gonzaga
75 UConn vs Missouri
Slowest Paced Games
56 Florida St vs Wisconsin
57 Arizona St. vs Temple
59 Marquette vs Utah St.
59 West Virginia vs Dayton
59 Gonzaga vs Akron
Interestingly, Gonzaga played a game in both categories.
Let’s now move to the PPP or points per 100 possessions.
Most Impressive Wins
Largest PPP Differential
69.1 UConn defeats Chattanooga
56.4 Louisville defeats Arizona
49.7 North Carolina defeats Radford
40.4 Oklahoma defeats Morgan St.
39.5 UConn defeats Texas A&M
Best Offense
Highest points PPP
148.9 Louisville vs Arizona
140.0 UConn vs Texas A&M
134.4 Memphis vs Maryland
132.2 Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St.
130.8 Gonzaga vs Akron
Worst Offense
Lowest PPP
57.9 Chattanooga vs UConn
60.0 Dayton vs Kansas
63.5 Stephen F. Austin vs Syracuse
67.0 Radford vs North Carolina
73.1 Duke vs Villanova
Who would have guessed that Duke would have had one of the worst offensive performances of the tournament?
Win without defense award
Highest PPP for loser
132.2 over 119.6 Pittsburgh defeats Oklahoma St
118.3 over 115.3 Oklahoma St. defeats Tennessee
117.1 over 114.1 Villanova defeats Pittsburgh
116.3 over 113.5 Gonzaga defeats Western Kentucky
116.8 over 111.1 Missouri defeats Marquette
Win without offense award
Lowest PPP for winner
83.8 over 60.0 Kansas defeats Dayton
85.2 over 63.5 Syracuse defeats Stephen F. Austin
89.3 over 86.9 Siena defeats Ohio St.
93.1 over 76.0 Xavier defeats Wisconsin
95.4 over 87.5 Pittsburgh defeats Xavier
The story of Pittsburgh has been the improved offense (through offensive rebounding). But in this tournament, Pittsburgh’s story was going from one extreme to the other. Pittsburgh won a “no offense” game and went 1-1 in games with “no defense”.
Best eFG%
68.2% Louisville vs Arizona
Worst eFG%
25.0% Dayton vs Kansas
Dayton really played tough in that game against Kansas, but they couldn’t buy a basket.
Best TO%
6.5% Missouri vs Cornell
Worst TO%
31.5% Kansas vs Michigan St.
Michigan St. fans have come to dread the word “turnovers”, but things went well against Kansas.
Best OR%
54.3% Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St.
Worst OR%
12.3% Gonzaga vs North Carolina
A lot of people felt Gonzaga was soft, and this number will back that up.
Best FTR
72.6 Missouri vs Memphis
Worst FTR
8.1 American vs Villanova
Memphis probably thought when the whistles came out early against Missouri that this was good news. How wrong they were.
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