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As Basketball Prospectus has said from the beginning, Duke’s defense is predicated on denying three point shots and dunks and forcing teams to make intermediate jumpers. Few teams are equipped to win by taking two point jumpers, but the 2008-09 Illinois team might be the rare team that can win with this strategy. Illinois is dead last in free throw rate among BCS schools, shoots many more twos than threes, but is finding a way to win.
And thanks to two lanky big men in Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis, the jump shot is here to stay in Illini country. I don’t know that Illinois can win on a consistent basis with this strategy, but on a night where the shooters couldn't seem to figure out where the three-point line was on Purdue’s floor, (it was the blue line, not the white line), Illinois surprised the Purdue defense scoring 46 of its first 47 points on two pointers. (And thanks to ESPN for catching this stat-geek gem).
Again, I hardly recommend this strategy. In the long haul, I think Illinois needs to learn to draw some fouls. But don’t think that great teams can’t employ the two point jumper in their arsenal. I’ve been watching some of the 2005 Illini season on the Big Ten Network’s Greatest Games feature, and we tend to forget that Dee Brown, Deron Williams, and Luther Head were not just great three point shooters, they all had a solid intermediate game as well. You saw it in big games against Wake Forest, Gonzaga, and at Michigan St. where the 2005 Illini squad shocked the other team by pulling up short of the paint, and knocking down wide-open 8 foot jumpers.
Update: Big Ten Geeks actually predicted this in the pre-game. Yep, that earns a LHS link. And Spartans Weblog had a nice graphic of the tempo free stats showing that Illinois should not be a surprise team. Note to self: Read more of other blogs.
Here we go again. But not this time.
Illinois was the unluckiest team in the nation last year, losing numerous close games. But further analysis revealed it was not just bad luck. Illinois couldn’t make free throws and therefore couldn’t finish any of the close games last season. This year, most of the poor free throw shooters are graduated, (and as noted above, Illinois isn’t taking any free throws this year), but Illinois still had a major chance to blow a late lead against Purdue.
After committing a foul in the final seconds to allow the game to be tied, and after giving up the first 4 points in overtime, Illinois could have easily hung their heads and lost again.
After Demetri McCamey (an 89% free throw shooter) missed three foul shots, Illinois could have easily caved in and kept the streak of close losses intact.
But not on this night. Illinois was playing too smooth. (See 6 turnovers.) Illinois was playing too unselfishly (See 21 assists.) And on back-to-back nights, a conference favorite went down at home. UConn, Purdue, who's next? This is college basketball.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
Georgetown defeats #2 Connecticut
Over a decade ago, Minneapolis North product Khalid El-Amin, one of the most exciting high school guards in Minnesota high school basketball history, decide to attend UConn. He helped win a national championship for Jim Calhoun in 1999 and I spent much of the next decade resenting UConn basketball. Like most people, I cheered when George Mason upset the Huskies a few years ago, and after a mass exodus of UConn players left for the NBA, I was happy to watch players like Jeff Adrien suffer through a 17-14 season just two years ago.
But as much as I’ve become obsessed with college basketball over the past few years, I’ve learned you have to respect quality coaches. And Jim Calhoun has not only put UConn on the map, he’s earned my respect. Yes, his teams still go for too many blocks instead of making the simple defensive play. But there is something to be said for a team that thinks dunk first and not lay-up. Jim Calhoun’s teams not only win basketball games, they do it with style.
And the more I’ve respected Jim Calhoun, and seniors like AJ Price and Jeff Adrien, the more a victory like this one is all the sweeter. Here was a game where AJ Price ended an early Georgetown run with a pair of threes, where Jeff Adrien would not be denied in the second half, where Hasheem Thabeet was diving on the floor for loose balls, and where much-maligned Stanley Robinson was making a crazy put-back dunk. And yet Georgetown would not be denied.
UConn fans will blame the fouls, (see the early steal by Greg Monroe which followed a clear bump by Monroe), or the lack of effort on backdoor cuts. But this was not about a lack of effort by UConn.
This was about Georgetown flat-out refusing to lose. There was Chris Wright hitting multiple buzzer beating jumpers. There was Austin Freeman with his new-found aggressiveness taking it to the basket earning numerous lay-ups and free throws. There was DaJuan Summers hammering home the offensive rebound dunk. There was Jesse Sapp hitting a clutch three pointer to extend the lead in the second half. There was Jason Clark making a pair of key free throws. There was Julian Vaughn coming in and playing defense on Hasheem Thabeet.
But there was only one Greg Monroe.
Freshman are not supposed to go on the road and dominate the number 2 team in the country. Freshman are not supposed to have this kind of all-around game. At the end of the day, heck at the end of the year, the PPG stats aren't going to be the best because Monroe is a team player. But Greg Monroe showed on Monday why he is one of the most talented freshmen in the country, opening the game with a three pointer, a hook shot over Hasheem Thabeet, 3 assists, and 3 steals. (Oh, and did I mention that he leads the Hoyas in steals, as a forward?) Monroe's performance in the first 6 minutes of the game, not only gave the Hoyas a 15-1 and then a 18-3 lead, it proved that there still are a few freshman worth watching this year.
Look Greg Monroe might cool off under the grind of Big East play. He may get schooled by DeJuan Blair on Saturday. But it is games like this one that make a Georgetown fan want to bask in the moment. Enjoy this season while you can Hoya fans, because if Monroe wants to go pro, he’ll have that option.
But as much as I’ve become obsessed with college basketball over the past few years, I’ve learned you have to respect quality coaches. And Jim Calhoun has not only put UConn on the map, he’s earned my respect. Yes, his teams still go for too many blocks instead of making the simple defensive play. But there is something to be said for a team that thinks dunk first and not lay-up. Jim Calhoun’s teams not only win basketball games, they do it with style.
And the more I’ve respected Jim Calhoun, and seniors like AJ Price and Jeff Adrien, the more a victory like this one is all the sweeter. Here was a game where AJ Price ended an early Georgetown run with a pair of threes, where Jeff Adrien would not be denied in the second half, where Hasheem Thabeet was diving on the floor for loose balls, and where much-maligned Stanley Robinson was making a crazy put-back dunk. And yet Georgetown would not be denied.
UConn fans will blame the fouls, (see the early steal by Greg Monroe which followed a clear bump by Monroe), or the lack of effort on backdoor cuts. But this was not about a lack of effort by UConn.
This was about Georgetown flat-out refusing to lose. There was Chris Wright hitting multiple buzzer beating jumpers. There was Austin Freeman with his new-found aggressiveness taking it to the basket earning numerous lay-ups and free throws. There was DaJuan Summers hammering home the offensive rebound dunk. There was Jesse Sapp hitting a clutch three pointer to extend the lead in the second half. There was Jason Clark making a pair of key free throws. There was Julian Vaughn coming in and playing defense on Hasheem Thabeet.
But there was only one Greg Monroe.
Freshman are not supposed to go on the road and dominate the number 2 team in the country. Freshman are not supposed to have this kind of all-around game. At the end of the day, heck at the end of the year, the PPG stats aren't going to be the best because Monroe is a team player. But Greg Monroe showed on Monday why he is one of the most talented freshmen in the country, opening the game with a three pointer, a hook shot over Hasheem Thabeet, 3 assists, and 3 steals. (Oh, and did I mention that he leads the Hoyas in steals, as a forward?) Monroe's performance in the first 6 minutes of the game, not only gave the Hoyas a 15-1 and then a 18-3 lead, it proved that there still are a few freshman worth watching this year.
Look Greg Monroe might cool off under the grind of Big East play. He may get schooled by DeJuan Blair on Saturday. But it is games like this one that make a Georgetown fan want to bask in the moment. Enjoy this season while you can Hoya fans, because if Monroe wants to go pro, he’ll have that option.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Final Old Spice Post
With no college basketball on Christmas, I decided it was time to clean out my notebook with some final thoughts on Thanksgiving's Old Spice Classic.
Inside Wichita St.
The Shockers didn’t have the most fans in Orlando (more like 4th most), but the fans they brought sure seemed to know how to make the most noise. The Key: the mid-major foot-stomp. On bleachers, this creates much more noise than clapping.
Against Georgetown, Sienna, and Michigan St. in the Old Spice Classic, Wichita St. had a simple strategy: Slow the pace down, lull your opponent to sleep, and hope that Clevin Hannah can get hot and win the game at the end. It worked against Siena (in the biggest comeback in the tournament), and the strategy certainly gave Georgetown and Michigan St. a big scare. But will it work over the course of a season? It is hard to say. I’m still big on Gregg Marshall who did wonderful things at Winthrop, but it is a lot harder to win on a consistent basis in the MVC. Huge game this Sunday (Dec. 28th) when Wichita St. takes on Creighton.
Random Thought: It looks like former Missouri Tiger Stefhon Hannah and Wichita State’s Clevin Hannah are not related. I thought with Missouri and Wichita St. being in close proximity that they both might be local, but Stefhon was from Illinois and Clevin is from Mississippi. Trust me, you wonder these things when you watch 12 games live in 4 days.
Inside Michigan St.
Spartan fans like to claim they have lots of depth, but in the case of Michigan St. seniors Marquise Gray and Idon Ibok, what they really have is two warm bodies. To be fair, Gray is off to a decent start this year, but no one thinks the team is getting to Ford Field this year on the backs of its senior forwards.
The result in Orlando was that Tom Izzo rushed Delvon Roe back into the lineup. I was very excited to see Roe in person, and in warm-ups I could see why people are excited about the redshirt freshman. He seemed big, mobile, athletic, and a force to be reckoned with. But he was tentative when he got in the game, and the injury seems to have taken away some of his aggressiveness. With mostly Roe and Gray in the lineup (Sutton – injured, Morgan – fouls), Michigan St. lost the opener of the Old Spice Classic to Maryland. So maybe Michigan St. isn’t quite as deep as we thought.
Certainly, Michigan St. proved against Texas that if Sutton is healthy, and if one of the emerging guards (Allen or Summers) can make plays in the half-court, Michigan St. can be one of the best teams in the country. But the main feeling I got from Michigan St. fans in Orlando was that of impatience. The fans want the team to be dominant now, and while watching Roe develop sounds good on paper, it sure isn’t as much fun as winning right now.
Inside Tennessee
I’m going to be honest, it is hard for me to evaluate Tennessee vs Georgetown from a non-Georgetown perspective. Going into the game, I was wondering if Georgetown would even be able to compete with a Top 25 team, especially a run-and-gun team, on day 2 of a tournament, when Georgetown doesn’t have much depth beyond the starting five. But despite this lack of depth, despite facing tough full court pressure, Georgetown overcame several runs and the Hoyas were in position to knock off Tennessee. But that’s when the Vols hit some late threes to take the lead. Tennessee was 10-15 on 3’s in the game. Were it not for that fabulous outside shooting, I don’t think Tennessee wins. But that’s not really fair to Tennessee. The Vols deserve a lot more credit than that, and Bruce Pearl deserves every bit of praise he’s getting in Knoxville. Sometimes, it is just hard to write that you got beat by the better team.
By the way, the Tennessee fans were easily the nicest fans we met at the tournament. They were humble, gracious, and excited to be part of a new winning era in Knoxville.
Random Notes
-On Sunday of the Old Spice Classic, there was a rain delay due to rain blowing in an exhaust vent in the building. This reminded me of the time Michigan St.’s ACC-Big Ten challenge game was cancelled due to a wet floor, and it reminded some nearby Tennessee fans of last year’s SEC tournament.
-I spoke to some Volunteer fans who remember Georgetown’s Omar Wattad from high school. Wattad has yet to win me over, but he had a career day against his home state school, hitting 3 three pointers.
Inside Wichita St.
The Shockers didn’t have the most fans in Orlando (more like 4th most), but the fans they brought sure seemed to know how to make the most noise. The Key: the mid-major foot-stomp. On bleachers, this creates much more noise than clapping.
Against Georgetown, Sienna, and Michigan St. in the Old Spice Classic, Wichita St. had a simple strategy: Slow the pace down, lull your opponent to sleep, and hope that Clevin Hannah can get hot and win the game at the end. It worked against Siena (in the biggest comeback in the tournament), and the strategy certainly gave Georgetown and Michigan St. a big scare. But will it work over the course of a season? It is hard to say. I’m still big on Gregg Marshall who did wonderful things at Winthrop, but it is a lot harder to win on a consistent basis in the MVC. Huge game this Sunday (Dec. 28th) when Wichita St. takes on Creighton.
Random Thought: It looks like former Missouri Tiger Stefhon Hannah and Wichita State’s Clevin Hannah are not related. I thought with Missouri and Wichita St. being in close proximity that they both might be local, but Stefhon was from Illinois and Clevin is from Mississippi. Trust me, you wonder these things when you watch 12 games live in 4 days.
Inside Michigan St.
Spartan fans like to claim they have lots of depth, but in the case of Michigan St. seniors Marquise Gray and Idon Ibok, what they really have is two warm bodies. To be fair, Gray is off to a decent start this year, but no one thinks the team is getting to Ford Field this year on the backs of its senior forwards.
The result in Orlando was that Tom Izzo rushed Delvon Roe back into the lineup. I was very excited to see Roe in person, and in warm-ups I could see why people are excited about the redshirt freshman. He seemed big, mobile, athletic, and a force to be reckoned with. But he was tentative when he got in the game, and the injury seems to have taken away some of his aggressiveness. With mostly Roe and Gray in the lineup (Sutton – injured, Morgan – fouls), Michigan St. lost the opener of the Old Spice Classic to Maryland. So maybe Michigan St. isn’t quite as deep as we thought.
Certainly, Michigan St. proved against Texas that if Sutton is healthy, and if one of the emerging guards (Allen or Summers) can make plays in the half-court, Michigan St. can be one of the best teams in the country. But the main feeling I got from Michigan St. fans in Orlando was that of impatience. The fans want the team to be dominant now, and while watching Roe develop sounds good on paper, it sure isn’t as much fun as winning right now.
Inside Tennessee
I’m going to be honest, it is hard for me to evaluate Tennessee vs Georgetown from a non-Georgetown perspective. Going into the game, I was wondering if Georgetown would even be able to compete with a Top 25 team, especially a run-and-gun team, on day 2 of a tournament, when Georgetown doesn’t have much depth beyond the starting five. But despite this lack of depth, despite facing tough full court pressure, Georgetown overcame several runs and the Hoyas were in position to knock off Tennessee. But that’s when the Vols hit some late threes to take the lead. Tennessee was 10-15 on 3’s in the game. Were it not for that fabulous outside shooting, I don’t think Tennessee wins. But that’s not really fair to Tennessee. The Vols deserve a lot more credit than that, and Bruce Pearl deserves every bit of praise he’s getting in Knoxville. Sometimes, it is just hard to write that you got beat by the better team.
By the way, the Tennessee fans were easily the nicest fans we met at the tournament. They were humble, gracious, and excited to be part of a new winning era in Knoxville.
Random Notes
-On Sunday of the Old Spice Classic, there was a rain delay due to rain blowing in an exhaust vent in the building. This reminded me of the time Michigan St.’s ACC-Big Ten challenge game was cancelled due to a wet floor, and it reminded some nearby Tennessee fans of last year’s SEC tournament.
-I spoke to some Volunteer fans who remember Georgetown’s Omar Wattad from high school. Wattad has yet to win me over, but he had a career day against his home state school, hitting 3 three pointers.
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