Monday, February 16, 2009

Bracket Buster Games That Matter and Can You Name Oklahoma's Best Win?

I find that if I have too many columns, 1-25, 26-50, 51-100, these tables become impossible to read, but this week I’m adding a new column for the best RPI wins for each team. (This way you can see that Boston College has two great wins against Duke and UNC.) My finding from past tournaments is that wins against the Top 10 really impact the seeding of the elite teams, but marquee wins have less impact for the final teams in the field. A single marquee victory cannot make up for a terrible overall profile. So give wins against the Top 10 some weight in your evaluation, but not too much weight.

Key
RPI is the NCAAs official figures posted Mondays on web1.ncaa.org.
RN is road/neutral from the same RPI post.

I calculated the rest of the figures for games through Sunday, February 15th
CR is conference Record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses.
L11+ is the teams record starting with the 11th to last regular season game. I do this because I assume that each team will play at least one conference tournament game.
BW(RPI) is a teams best RPI wins and the RPI rank of the defeated teams.

I only list teams in the Top 100.

CR  ACC            T50 N50 BL L11+   RN RPI BW(RPI)
9-2 North Carolina 6-1 7-1 0 WWWWWW  11-1 4 Duke(5)MichSt(6)Clemson(10)
7-4 Duke           7-3 5-2 0 WLWLL   6-4  5 Xavier(8)FlSt(20)Purdue(28)
6-4 Clemson        6-3 3-1 0 WWLWL   9-2 10 Duke(5)Illini(15)Temple(34)
6-4 Wake Forest    5-2 5-1 1 LLWLW   8-3 16 UNC(4)Duke(5)Clemson(10)
6-4 Florida St.    4-5 6-1 0 LWWWL   9-3 20 Clem.(10)Cal(23)Florida(45)
6-4 Virginia Tech  2-4 4-3 1 LLWWL   7-6 49 Wake(16)MiamiFL(47)BC(51)
7-5 Boston College 4-6 4-0 2 WWWWLLW 6-4 51 UNC(4)Duke(5)UAB(39)
5-5 Maryland       3-6 3-1 1 LWLWW   3-6 61 MichSt(6)MiaFL(47)VTech(49)
4-6 NC State       2-8 0-1 0 LWLWW   2-6 91 Wake(16)MiamiFL(47) 
4-7 Miami (FL)     2-7 3-2 0 LLLWLL  5-5 47 Wake(16)FloridaSt(20)BC(51)
2-8 Virginia       1-9 0-3 1 LLLLW   1-7 90 Clemson(10)


The ACC has wins against Michigan St., Xavier, Illinois, Purdue, and California that really show how dominant this conference has been. The only thing that’s going to stop the ACC from getting as many as 8 teams is that some of these teams are going to look pretty bad in the last 12 games of the year.

Would you rather face Miami (28th in the Pomeroy Rankings) or Boston College (58th in the Pomeroy Rankings)? Well Boston College has defeated Duke and UNC, while Miami has come up just short against Duke and UNC. The net result may be that Miami stays home while BC makes the NCAA field. Is it fair? Well, the results of the games do matter after all. As I mentioned on Saturday night, the only good news for Miami is that the Hurricanes have a favorable schedule to end the year.

CR   Big East     T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
12-1 Connecticut  8-1 8-0 0 WWWWWW 12-0 3 Nova(9)WestVirg(13)Louisv(17)
10-2 Pittsburgh   7-2 2-0 0 WWWWW  7-2  1 WVirg(13)WVirg(13)Syrcuse(19)
10-2 Marquette    5-3 4-0 1 WWLLW  6-4 24 Nova(9)WVirg(13)Wisconsin(29)
10-2 Louisville   5-2 3-3 0 WLWLW  6-3 17 Pitt(1)Nova(9)WestVirg(13)
8-4 Villanova     5-5 6-0 0 WWWWL  7-4  9 Pitt(1)Syrcuse(19)Marqtte(24)
8-5 Providence    3-5 2-4 0 WLLLWW 4-6 66 Syr(19)Cincin(48)Cincin(48)
7-6 Syracuse      5-5 3-2 0 LLWLLW 5-5 19 Memphis(7)Kansas(12)WVirg(13)
7-6 Cincinnati    3-7 3-2 0 WLWWWL 5-6 48 Gtown(37)Gtown(37)UAB(39)
6-6 West Virginia 3-7 5-1 0 LLWLW  8-6 13 Nova(9)OhioSt(26)Gtown(37)
5-7 Seton Hall    3-6 0-2 2 WWWWL  5-5 87 Gtown(37)USC(44)VirgTech(49)
5-7 Notre Dame    3-9 1-0 1 LLLWW  4-8 74 Louisv(17)Gtown(37)Texas(40)
4-8 Georgetown    3-8 3-2 0 LLWLL  3-7 37 UConn(3)Memphis(7)Syrcuse(19)


Everyone in the Big East has some fine individual victories, but how do the overall profiles look?

Syracuse is in fine shape thanks to non-conference wins away from home against Memphis and Kansas. (How odd is it to be applauding the Orange’s non-conference away schedule?)

The interesting case is obviously Providence, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. My read of these numbers has West Virginia at the head of that class (8-8 vs Top 100), with Providence (5-9 vs Top 100) edging Cincinnati (6-9 vs Top 100) thanks to a head-to-head sweep. In conferences like the Big East where the schedule is greatly imbalanced, I think you can almost throw out the conference record.

CR   Big 10      T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
10-2 Michigan St 8-1 3-3 0 WLWWW  11-2 6 Kansas(12)Illini(15)OhioSt(26)
9-4 Illinois     5-4 4-1 0 LWLWWW 8-4 15 Missou(14)OhioSt(26)Purdue(28)
8-4 Purdue       4-5 4-1 0 WLLWW  7-4 28 Wiscons(29)Wiscons(29)Minn(36)
7-5 Ohio St.     4-6 3-0 0 WWWWL  4-4 26 Butler(21)Purdue(28)Minn(36)
7-6 Minnesota    4-4 2-2 0 WWLLWL 5-4 36 Illini(15)Louisv(17)OhioSt(26)
7-6 Wisconsin    3-7 5-1 1 LLWWWW 5-6 29 Illi(15)OhioSt(26)VirgTech(49)
7-6 Penn St.     3-6 2-2 0 WWLLLW 5-5 70 MichSt(6)Purdue(28)Minn(36)
6-7 Michigan     3-8 4-2 0 LLWLLW 4-7 53 Duke(5)Illinois(15)UCLA(32)
4-8 Northwestern 4-5 0-4 1 WWLLL  2-6 82 MichSt(6)FloridaSt(20)Wisc(29)


What a difference two weeks makes. Wisconsin now looks to be on track for 10 or 11 conference wins and clearly has the makings of an NCAA tournament team.

Let’s say Michigan gets to 9-9 in the conference, wins a first round Big Ten tourney game and then loses in the second round. Is that an NCAA tournament team? Well, Michigan would likely be 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 9-10 against the Top 100 as a whole, and a critical 6-6 in the last 12 (because the first round win would give them another game and eliminate that L at the start of the last 12.) It will be close, but I think that will be good enough. Since the Wolverines play Minnesota twice at the end of the season, the Wolverines essentially need to steal the bid from the Gophers.

CR   Pac 10     T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
10-3 Washington 4-5 3-0 1 WLWWW  5-5 22 ArizonaSt(27)UCLA(32)OklSt(38)
9-4 Arizona St  6-3 3-1 1 LLWWWW 9-3 27 UCLA(32)UCLA(32)BYU(35)
8-4 California  5-4 2-1 1 LLWWW  4-5 23 Utah(11)Wash(22)Wash(22)
8-4 UCLA        4-5 3-1 0 WWWLL  6-5 32 Cal(23)Arizona(43)USC(44)
8-5 Arizona     6-5 2-3 0 WWWWWW 5-6 43 Kansas(12)Wash(22)Gonzaga(30)
6-6 USC         3-7 1-1 1 WWLLL  3-8 44 Cal(23)ArizonaSt(27)Arizona(43)
4-8 Stanford    2-6 1-0 2 LWLWL  3-5 86 Cal(23)Ariz(43)Northwestern(82)


Unlike the ACC, Big East, and Big Ten, the dearth of high RPI wins starts to show up in the Pac 10. All these teams are good, and the Pac10 might even get 6 bids, but will anyone distance themselves? Will a UCLA winning streak to end the season provide enough quality wins for a high seed?

USC should be able to get to 10-8 in conference play. They would only need to beat Stanford, Washington St., and the pair of Oregon schools to get there. But is that enough? Two more losses against the Top 50 might make things pretty dicey. The Trojans probably need to go 5-1 down the stretch and finish at least 11-7 to feel comfortable.

Look at that profile for Arizona! I still can’t believe the turnaround this team has made since the Houston game.

CR   Big 12     T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
11-0 Oklahoma   7-0 9-0 1 WWWWWW 10-1 2 Utah(11)Purdue(28)OklSt(38)
9-1 Kansas      5-4 5-0 1 WWWLW  6-4 12 Tenn(18)Washington(22)Siena(31)
9-2 Missouri    5-2 3-2 0 LWWWWW 6-4 14 Kansas(12)Cal(23)OklSt(38)
6-4 Texas       4-3 3-3 1 LLLWW  7-5 40 Villanova(9)Wisc(29)UCLA(32)
6-5 Kansas St   2-3 2-3 2 WWWWL  4-5 76 Missouri(14)Texas(40)TexA&M(52)
5-5 Nebraska    2-5 2-0 3 LWWWL  3-5 64 Missour(14)Tex(40)Creighton(56)
4-6 Oklahoma St 1-7 4-2 0 LWLLW  4-7 38 Siena(31)TexA&M(52)RhodIlnd(63)
4-7 Baylor      2-7 3-1 1 LLLLLW 4-5 54 ArizSt(27)OklSt(38)TexasA&M(52)
3-7 Texas A&M   3-5 1-3 0 WWLLL  4-6 52 OklSt(38)LSU(41)Arizona(43)


The only thing that could hurt Oklahoma’s seeding is the lack of wins against elite quality opponents. While North Carolina is claiming wins against Duke and Michigan St. and while the Big East teams are claiming wins against one another, the Sooners best victory is Utah. (And remember that Utah has a terrible non-division 1 loss that doesn’t hurt the RPI but does hurt their reputation.) The Sooners still need to beat Kansas and Missouri to hold onto a 1 seed.

The Big 12 would like to thank Oklahoma St. for providing a tough NCSOS and high RPI and then losing to all the elite Big 12 teams.

What does it say that the best wins for Kansas all came in the non-conference portion of the schedule? I think it say the middle of the Big 12 is very weak.

CR  SEC            T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI BW(RPI)
9-1 LSU            2-2 4-1 1 WWWWW 4-3 41 Tenn(18)SouthCar(42)Miss(68)
7-3 Tennessee      5-6 2-2 0 WWLWW 7-4 18 Marqtte(24)Siena(31)Gtown(37)
7-3 South Carolina 1-4 5-0 1 WWLWW 4-4 42 Flrda(45)Baylor(54)Kentky(59)
7-3 Kentucky       3-4 3-2 1 LLLWW 7-3 59 WestVirg(13)Tenn(18)Flrda(45)
6-4 Florida        2-4 4-1 1 WLWLL 6-6 45 Wash(22)SouthCar(42)Miss(68)
6-4 Mississippi St 0-3 4-2 4 LWWLL 5-5 85 Ktky(59)WstKtky(65)Houstn(88)
5-5 Auburn         1-4 2-4 1 LLWWW 2-6 93 Tenn(18)MissSt(85)Vrginia(90)
4-6 Vanderbilt     0-5 3-2 2 LWWWL 5-5 100 VCU(67)Miss(68)Auburn(93)
4-6 Mississippi    0-7 3-2 2 WWWLL 3-9 68 Ktky(59)MissSt(85)Auburn(93)


What does it say that the best wins for Tennessee all came in the non-conference portion of the schedule? Oh, I think we all know the answer to that one.

It is easy to look at the SEC standings and think “Maybe there are 6 NCAA tournament teams here.” After all, the four teams from the east, LSU, maybe even Mississippi St. But if you think that, you just aren’t looking at the numbers. Mississippi St. isn’t even close at this point.

LSU may be ranked now, but they still only have two wins against the RPI Top 50.

CR  MWC          T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
9-2 Utah         4-4 4-1 2 WWWWWW 7-5 11 Gonzaga(30)BYU(35)LSU(41)
8-3 San Diego St 1-4 2-1 1 WWWWLW 6-5 46 Utah(11)UNLV(55)NewMexico(75)
7-3 BYU          2-3 3-2 0 LWWWW  8-3 35 UtahSt(33)SDgoSt(46)Tulsa(71)
7-3 New Mexico   1-2 2-4 3 WLWWW  4-7 75 BYU(35)UNLV(55)Mississippi(68)
7-4 UNLV         4-3 2-1 2 WWLLWW 6-3 55 Utah(11)Louisville(17)BYU(35)

CR  A10          T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
9-2 Xavier       6-3 5-0 1 WWWLLW 9-3  8 Memphis(7)Missou(14)Temple(34)
9-2 Dayton       2-0 5-1 2 WWWLWW 7-3 25 Xavier(8)Marqtte(24)GMason(57)
7-3 Temple       1-4 4-3 2 WLWWW  9-8 34 Tenn(18)RhodIsld(63)PennSt(70)
7-3 St. Josephs  0-5 1-2 3 LWWLL  7-6 79 Rhode Island(63)
7-4 Rhode Island 1-5 4-2 1 WWWLWW 7-7 63 Temple(34)VCU(67) Penn St.(70)
5-5 La Salle     0-6 1-1 3 LLLWW  5-6 98 St. Josephs(79)  

CR   CUSA    T50 N50 BL L11+  RN RPI BW(RPI)
10-0 Memphis 4-3 7-0 0 WWWWW  9-2  7 Tennessee(18)Gonzaga(30)UAB(39)
7-3 Houston  1-2 2-2 3 LWWWW  6-5 88 UAB(39)WesternKentucky(65)UTEP(81)
7-3 UAB      1-5 1-3 0 LWWWW  6-8 39 Arizona(43)UTEP(81) 
7-4 Tulsa    1-6 3-0 3 WWWWLL 6-6 71 UAB(39)TexasA&M(52)UTEP(81)
6-4 UTEP     0-3 3-4 2 WWLWW  6-6 81 StMrys(60)NewMexico(75)Houston(88)


Memphis, Xavier, and Utah all have pretty strong profiles and all three could very likely be seeded ahead of LSU.

This week’s win against Xavier was huge for Dayton’s at large hopes.

Bracket Busters Thoughts

CR  MVC            T50 N50 BL L11+   RN RPI BW(RPI)
12-3 Northern Iowa 0-1 4-1 6 WWWWLWL 8-5 83 Creig(56)IllSt(58)Aubrn(93)
11-4 Creighton     1-0 4-4 2 LWWWWWW 9-4 56 Dytn(25)NewMex(75)StJoe(79)
10-5 Illinois St.  0-0 4-1 4 WLWWLWW 9-4 58 Creig(56)WrgtSt(94)Evns(97)
7-8 Evansville     0-2 2-4 4 WWLWLL  2-7 97 WestKentucky(65)Buffalo(84)

CR   MAAC      T50 N50 BL L11+    RN RPI BW(RPI)
14-1 Siena     0-4 6-0 2 WWWWLWW  7-6 31 Niagr(62)BoiseSt(78)StJoes(79)
12-3 Niagara   0-2 3-0 4 WWWWWWW 13-4 62 Buffalo(84)Fairf(95)Fairf(95)
8-8  Fairfield 0-6 1-2 4 LLWWWLLL 7-9 95 American(80)


The Missouri Valley is starting a challenge with the Mountain West next year, concluding that they aren’t really getting anything out of the Bracket Busters. Still, the MVC has the games I am most interested in watching this weekend.

Northern Iowa at Siena: Call me crazy, but I think Siena still has a chance at an at large bid. Sure, it might just be the affection I gained for Kenny Hasbrouck, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin down at the Old Spice Classic, but a win against Northern Iowa would give Siena 7 wins against the RPI top 100, with another win against Ivy league leading Cornell in their pocket as well. But Northern Iowa’s new guard trio has been playing well all year and Siena will have to earn it.

Illinois St. at Niagara: If Niagara can get a win here too and climb into the RPI top 50, the case for Siena starts to look plausible.

George Mason at Creighton: This is a legitimate resume opportunity for Creighton as George Mason has climbed up to 57th in the RPI. If the Blue Jays win their final 4 games, make it to the MVC final and lose to Northern Iowa, could the MVC get two bids? Oh, who am I kidding? Even though these are some of the best games, there isn’t much to cheer for this year.

CR   WCC      T50 N50 BL L11+   RN  RPI BW(RPI)
10-0 Gonzaga  3-4 3-0 1 WWWLWW  11-3 30 Tenn(18)Tenn(18)OklahomaSt(38)
7-4 St. Marys 1-2 1-1 2 WLLWLLW 10-4 60 SanDiegoSt(46)Providence(66) 

CR   WAC      T50 N50 BL L11+  RN  RPI BW(RPI)
12-1 Utah St. 1-1 2-1 0 WWWWWL 10-2 33 Utah(11)BoiseSt(78)WeberSt(96)
7-4 Boise St. 1-3 0-0 4 LWWLW  5-6  78 Utah St.(33)  


Probably the most important game of the weekend is Utah St. at St. Mary’s. Nobody needs a credibility boosting win more than Utah St. If Utah St. can’t win that game and loses to Boise St. in the conference tournament, they’ll fall to 3-4 against the Top 100, and I think the committee will find a way to punish them for a very questionable non-conference schedule. A win may not carry the same value because of the injury to Patrick Mills of St. Mary’s, but Utah St. absolutely needs this game if they want to have an argument for an at-large bid.

CR   CAA          T50 N50 BL L11+   RN RPI BW(RPI)
11-4 VCU          0-1 4-3 4 WLWLWWL 7-7 67 GMason(57)NewMex(75)Hofs(89)
11-4 Northeastern 0-1 4-4 4 WWWLWLL 9-6 77 GeorMason(57)Prov(66)VCU(67)
10-5 George Mason 0-1 2-2 5 LWLWLLW 5-8 57 Northeastern(77)Hofstra(89) 
9-6  Hofstra      0-1 1-4 4 WWLLWWW 9-6 89 Northeastern(77)  

CR  MAC       T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI BW(RPI)
9-2 Buffalo   1-2 1-2 2 WWWWL 9-4 84 Temple(34)Miami(OH)(69) 
8-3 Miami(OH) 1-5 2-1 2 WWWLW 8-6 69 Temple(34)WrightSt(94)WeberSt(96)

CR  Sun Belt          T50 N50 BL L11+    RN RPI BW(RPI)
12-2 Ark Little Rock  0-1 1-2 3 WLWWWWW 10-3 92 Creighton(56)  
11-3 Western Kentucky 1-1 1-3 4 LWWWWL   6-8 65 Louisville(17)ArkLR(92)


Heads they lose, tails they lose.

In the CAA, VCU travels to Nevada. That’s always a tough venue, and Nevada isn’t even in the RPI Top 100 right now. Northeastern gets a trip to Wright St. in the Bracket Busters, but if they win they’ll probably knock Wright St. out of the Top 100. Same story for Hofstra who travels to Fairfield and can knock them out of the Top 100 with a win. Good times.

Same story in the MAC, where Buffalo gets a team not in the Top 100 and Miami (OH) gets an Evansville team that will probably fall out of the Top 100 with a loss.

It is stuff like this that makes the Sun Belt say “Why bother?“ and not participate in the Bracket Busters.

CR   Horizon      T50 N50 BL L11+   RN  RPI BW(RPI)
13-2 Butler       2-1 6-1 1 WWLWWWL 10-2 21 Xav(8)UAB(39)GreenBay(72)
11-4 Green Bay    1-3 2-1 4 WWWWWLL 7-6  72 Butlr(21)ClvSt(73)WrgSt(94)
10-5 Cleveland St 1-3 2-3 2 LWWWWWW 7-6  73 Syr(19)GrBay(72)WrighSt(94)
10-5 Wright St    0-3 2-4 3 WWLWLWW 8-7  94 ClevSt(73)ArkLittleRock(92)

CR   OTHER      T50 N50 BL L11+    RN RPI BW(RPI)
15-1 Davidson   1-3 1-0 1 WWWLWW  11-3 50 WestVirginia(13)NCState(91)
9-1  American   0-2 0-2 3 LWWWWWW  9-6 80   
11-1 Weber St.  0-4 0-1 3 WWWWWWW  9-6 96   
10-3 Binghamton 0-0 0-0 8 WWLWWWWW 8-6 99   


The unofficial main event of the Bracket Busters is Butler at Davidson, but with Stephen Curry day-to-day, that match-up is a lot less exciting. Davidson did catch a big break this week with NC State moving back up into the Top 100, but it is clear that they still need another quality win to keep at large hopes alive. Butler is just playing for a better seed.