Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Revisiting Predictions

A little over a month ago, on January 6th, I made some predictions of who would move up in the Pomeroy rankings. Let’s see if the teams I picked have actually improved. I list the change in Pomeroy Rank in parentheses.

Miami (30th to 26th): I liked the idea of shortening the rotation, and whether by choice or fate, Eddie Rios was cut loose.

Washington (18th to 16th): Again, I liked the promise of a shortened rotation. This was a really tough call given that Washington was already 18th.

UCLA (14th to 6th): Ben Howland is very good.

Michigan St. (25th to 11th): This one was easy.

Wisconsin (48th to 36th): The day after I made this prediction, Wisconsin blew out Northwestern by 29. That moved the Badgers up and they’ve stayed up despite a massive losing streak.

Syracuse (33rd to 35th): It takes the Orange to let a Hoya fan down.

Louisville (19th to 7th): Louisville’s offense had nowhere to go but up, and the defense has held strong.

So I was basically right about 6 of the 7 teams improving, although some of these changes are pretty trivial.

What Can Change in a Month?

A couple days after making these predictions and bashing the sample size for the Pomeroy Rankings, I made a screen shot of the Pomeroy Rankings. I hoped to be able to document how much things changed in conference play. And while some teams’ fortunes have definitely changed, surprisingly only 15 of 73 BCS teams have moved up or down more than 20 spots in the rankings. Is that because few teams change their spots? Or is it because the non-conference slate still occupies more than half of the season total? Either way, I’m thinking of being more cautious when I attack these ratings for small sample sizes in January.

Let’s take a look at the BCS teams Pomeroy Ranking on games through January 8th, on games through February 9th, and the change:

Jan Feb  Ch Team
  1   1   0 Duke
  5   2   3 Connecticut
  4   3   1 North Carolina
  3   4  -1 Pittsburgh
 13   6   7 UCLA
 16   7   9 Louisville
  2   8  -6 West Virginia
 11   9   2 Missouri


The more things change, the more things stay the same. Duke is still on top.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 27  11  16 Michigan St.
  7  12  -5 Arizona St.
 19  13   6 Kansas
 32  14  18 Villanova
 15  15   0 Clemson
 23  16   7 Washington
  9  17  -8 Wake Forest
 18  18   0 Oklahoma
 20  19   1 Purdue


At about the time I made this screen shot, Spartans Weblog said something similar to this. “Well, Pomeroy predicts us to go 11-7 in conference play and lose several of the upcoming games. Time to change those numbers.” Indeed the Spartans have risen up to become a legitimate Final Four team.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 24  22   2 Illinois
 29  23   6 Marquette
  6  24 -18 Georgetown
 31  26   5 Miami FL
 22  27  -5 Texas
 21  30  -9 California
 26  31  -5 Kentucky
 46  32  14 Southern California
 14  34 -20 Kansas St.
 35  35   0 Syracuse
 34  36  -2 Wisconsin
 41  37   4 Florida
 84  39  45 Louisiana St.
 28  40 -12 Tennessee


Has anyone improved more than LSU? Kansas St. probably fits the description of “falling back to earth”, but they are still in competition for an NCAA tournament spot.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 44  41   3 Ohio St.
 50  43   7 Arizona
 30  45 -15 Baylor
 42  46  -4 Oklahoma St.
 54  48   6 Minnesota
 77  51  26 Florida St.
 52  53  -1 South Carolina
 60  54   6 Washington St.
 36  55 -19 Notre Dame
 40  56 -16 Stanford
 75  59  16 Nebraska
 89  62  27 Virginia Tech
 55  63  -8 Northwestern
 66  65   1 Boston College
 90  66  24 Cincinnati
 62  68  -6 Michigan
 51  69 -18 Maryland


Did anyone expect Virginia Tech, Florida St., Nebraska, and Cincinnati to pull together and get this much better?

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 87  73  14 Texas A&M
 67  76  -9 Penn St.
 86  78   8 Mississippi St.
 80  80   0 Providence
 57  81 -24 Vanderbilt
 53  85 -32 Iowa
 79  89 -10 North Carolina St.
 70  90 -20 Auburn
103  93  10 Seton Hall
 92  94  -2 Mississippi
 99  96   3 Georgia Tech
 88 102 -14 Virginia
148 104  44 South Florida
109 108   1 Texas Tech
 73 112 -39 Arkansas


Iowa has lost players to injury/suspension, but what is Arkansas’ excuse. Actually, prior to the Oklahoma and Texas games, Arkansas was performing at about this level. Those two wins appear to be flukes.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
111 118  -7 St. John's
105 124 -19 Iowa St.
122 125  -3 Alabama
130 138  -8 Rutgers
173 145  28 Colorado
126 148 -22 Oregon
207 153  54 Oregon St.
157 187 -30 Georgia
160 189 -29 DePaul
217 208   9 Indiana


Indiana was performing at such a low level, they had to improve.

Note the biggest improvements:
Oregon St. – New coach, takes time to learn system
LSU – New coach, takes time to learn system
South Florida – Some mid-season transfers joined the team

And here are some notable non-BCS teams:

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 10  5   5 Memphis
  8 10  -2 Gonzaga
 17 20  -3 Xavier
 12 21  -9 Brigham Young
 38 25  13 San Diego St.
 33 28   5 Utah
 25 29  -4 Butler
 49 33  16 UAB
 78 38  40 New Mexico
 37 42  -5 Davidson
 64 44  20 Temple
 61 47  14 Nevada Las Vegas
 43 49  -6 Utah St.
 65 50  15 Houston
 68 52  16 Tulsa
 59 57   2 St. Mary's


My instinct was that these teams would suffer in conference play. For example, in order to maintain its spot, Davidson has to blow out most conference opponents by 20 points. And I don’t care how good you are, blowing a team out game-after-game is hard. But lo and behold, most of the notable non-BCS teams have held strong. And as mentioned yesterday, John Gasaway favorite New Mexico has been on fire.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
 83 58  25 North Dakota St.
 48 60 -12 Rhode Island
 39 61 -22 Cleveland St.
 58 64  -6 Miami OH
 74 67   7 Creighton
 76 70   6 George Mason
 71 71   0 Texas El Paso
 56 72 -16 Virginia Commonwealth
 97 74  23 Akron
 95 75  20 Wisconsin Green Bay
 69 77  -8 Siena
 63 79 -16 Niagara
 93 82  11 Oral Roberts
 45 83 -38 Dayton
101 84  17 Wright St.
 47 86 -39 Illinois St.
118 87  31 Vermont
100 88  12 Northeastern
106 91  15 Saint Joseph's
102 92  10 Buffalo
141 95  46 Northern Iowa


Northern Iowa’s dominance in the MVC has raised them up significantly, but Siena actually looked better in losing to elite teams than they do against their conference opponents. I find that pretty surprising given that Siena has dominated the MAAC this year.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
168 265 -97 Air Force
198 274 -76 Harvard
167 241 -74 San Francisco
129 200 -71 Virginia Military Inst
161 229 -68 Jacksonville St.
163 230 -67 Southern Utah
196 263 -67 Florida Atlantic
156 221 -65 Lamar
218 277 -59 Georgia Southern
 72 129 -57 Belmont
 85 140 -55 Middle Tennessee
216 270 -54 Missouri Kansas City
 82 134 -52 Drake
174 225 -51 Texas St.


Just before the January number, Harvard upset Boston College. And VMI won at Kentucky this year. It was a nice run.

Jan Feb  Ch Team
186 136  50 Massachusetts
154 101  53 Kent St.
276 222  54 The Citadel
199 142  57 Tennessee Martin
247 183  64 Nicholls St.
185 109  76 Sam Houston St.
266 188  78 Troy
190 106  84 Robert Morris
246 160  86 Arkansas Little Rock
235 147  88 Holy Cross
268 176  92 Princeton
228 131  97 Boston University
279 180  99 Texas A&M CC


Thank goodness for conference play!