Ken Pomeroy’s removal of the RPI has actually done wonders for my health. I no longer feel the need to track my teams’ RPI on a daily basis and that’s a good thing. In fact, it wasn’t until mid-January that I even looked at the full RPI for the full time.
But as much as I enjoy predictive ratings (Pomeroy, Sagarin), at a certain point, I need to see the committee’s measure of accomplishment. I need to see the record vs the RPI Top 50 and vs the RPI Top 100.
Case in point, South Carolina upset Kentucky over the weekend. I found myself ready to write a post about South Carolina, and yet I had no idea what to make of that game. Was South Carolina in the discussion for an NCAA berth? Were they already in? Were they out due to the SEC’s futility this year?
Finding that no one had a free “vs RPI top 50” that was easy to access, I decided to download the full schedule and merging this with the NCAA’s weekly report on the RPI, I wrote a program to calculate each team’s accomplishments. I basically did this for myself, but figuring there are other people who like free stuff, I’ll try to share this on a semi-regular basis on Monday nights through the rest of the season.
Of course, by the time you read this, you’ll see UConn is leading Louisville meaning these numbers are about to become obsolete. Look, if you want up-to-date stuff, go to ESPN and sign up for insider. Or go to statsheet.com and look up your own team. But if you want a free comparative conference-by-conference look, you came to the right place.
Three Reasons the Nitty Gritty is better than a Bracket Projection
1) Do you really want to depend on someone else to tell you where your team ranks? Look at the numbers and decide for yourself how many teams have a better profile.
2) Most people who project brackets count the last 12 as if the season ended today. Guess what? Games in the first week of January are never part of the last 12. Assuming most teams play at least one game in the conference tournament, I start counting with the 11th to final regular season game. Most major conference teams have only played 1-3 games in the Last 12.
3) It really sucks to look at seed projections because 9 out of 10 times you are going to feel like your team got robbed on Selection Sunday. That’s just the way it is. Just look at these numbers and don’t get your hopes up too much.
CR is conference Record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses.
RPI is the NCAA’s official figures post on web1.ncaa.org.
L11+ is the teams record starting with the 11th to last regular season game.
Games through Sunday, February 1st
I’m only listing teams that are currently in the RPI top 100.
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-0 Marquette 4-2 4-0 0 W 5-2 13
8-0 Louisville 5-2 3-1 0 W 5-2 10
9-1 Connecticut 5-1 5-0 0 WW 10-0 6
7-2 Pittsburgh 5-2 3-0 0 W 6-2 2
6-3 Providence 1-5 3-2 0 WL 3-5 63
5-3 Villanova 2-4 4-0 0 W 6-3 12
5-4 Syracuse 3-3 3-2 0 LL 5-3 24
4-4 West Virginia 2-5 4-1 0 L 8-4 16
4-5 Cincinnati 3-6 0-2 0 WL 4-5 58
3-6 Georgetown 3-5 4-2 1 LL 3-6 18
3-6 Notre Dame 2-7 0-0 1 L 4-6 76
I’ve seen some smart people say that Providence only needs 3 more Big East wins to make the tournament, but that seems overly optimistic to me. If the Friars only beat Rutgers twice and South Florida from here on out, they would have a horrible record against the RPI top 100. The Friars deserve respect for how they’ve started, but they still have work to do.
CR ACC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
6-1 Duke 6-1 4-1 0 W 6-2 1
5-2 North Carolina 4-1 5-1 0 WW 9-1 4
4-2 Wake Forest 5-1 2-0 1 L 8-1 14
4-2 Clemson 5-2 1-0 0 W 8-1 8
5-3 Boston College 3-4 3-0 2 WWW 5-3 51
4-3 Virginia Tech 2-4 3-1 2 LL 7-5 38
3-3 Florida St. 2-4 4-1 0 L 8-2 27
3-4 Maryland 2-5 3-1 1 LW 2-5 80
3-5 Miami (Fla.) 1-5 4-1 1 LLL 5-4 49
1-5 Virginia 0-7 0-1 2 L 1-5 97
7 wins against the RPI top 100 is not quite the resume of a 1 seed, but wins against UNC and Duke may be all Wake needs.
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-0 Oklahoma 9-0 5-1 0 WW 9-1 3
6-0 Kansas 5-2 2-1 1 W 4-3 23
5-2 Missouri 4-2 1-2 0 LW 4-4 28
4-2 Texas 5-2 1-3 0 L 6-4 29
3-4 Texas A&M 2-4 3-1 0 WW 4-4 36
3-4 Baylor 2-6 3-0 0 LL 4-4 43
3-4 Kansas St. 2-3 2-3 1 W 3-5 78
3-4 Nebraska 1-4 2-0 3 LW 2-4 81
2-4 Oklahoma St. 2-7 3-0 0 L 4-5 26
If you are in the camp that says the ACC and Big East deserve all the 1 seeds, take a long look at Oklahoma’s numbers. No one has more quality wins than the Sooners and they are certainly on pace to take one of the number 1 seeds.
CR Big 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-2 Michigan St. 7-1 4-3 0 WL 10-2 5
6-2 Purdue 4-3 4-1 0 W 6-2 25
6-3 Minnesota 4-2 5-1 0 WW 5-1 22
6-3 Illinois 4-3 3-1 0 LW 6-3 17
6-3 Penn St. 2-4 3-1 0 WW 5-3 66
5-4 Ohio St. 2-5 4-0 0 WW 4-3 33
4-5 Northwestern 4-4 0-3 0 W 2-5 56
4-6 Michigan 3-6 3-2 0 LL 3-6 54
3-6 Wisconsin 1-7 4-2 0 LL 4-6 37
2-7 Iowa 1-6 2-3 1 LL 2-8 89
I really have no basis for this, but remembering past seasons when Michigan St. would shock everyone with a 1 seed with 7 losses, I can definitely still see a scenario where the Spartans earn a top overall seed. If the Spartans can win the Big Ten regular season and conference title they will have a boatload of quality wins. Of course Purdue will have something to say about that before all is said and done.
CR Pac 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-2 Washington 4-3 3-1 1 W 4-4 21
7-2 UCLA 2-3 5-1 0 W 6-3 31
6-3 USC 2-4 4-0 2 WW 3-5 42
5-4 California 4-4 3-1 1 LL 4-5 41
5-4 Arizona St. 2-4 5-1 0 LL 7-3 45
4-5 Arizona 3-7 2-1 0 WW 3-6 62
4-5 Washington St. 1-7 1-2 0 WL 5-3 94
3-6 Stanford 1-4 2-1 1 L 3-4 69
Despite a hot start, Arizona St. probably has the 5th best profile in the Pac 10 right now. Despite a cold start, Arizona is still in good shape to be in the discussion. Now all Arizona needs is a few road wins.
CR SEC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
5-1 LSU 2-3 3-0 1 W 2-3 55
4-2 Tennessee 5-5 0-2 0 W 6-3 19
5-2 South Carolina 2-2 2-1 1 WW 3-3 47
5-2 Florida 1-4 3-0 0 WL 6-4 35
5-2 Kentucky 2-4 1-1 1 LL 6-3 68
3-4 Mississippi 0-5 2-3 1 WW 3-7 65
1-5 Arkansas 2-1 1-2 3 L 2-4 82
And finally we come to South Carolina, the team from the introduction. Prior to the win against Kentucky, they had just 3 wins against the Top 100 and hardly looked like a tournament team. Now they have arguably a better profile than Florida and Kentucky. What a crazy year.
CR MWC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
5-2 UNLV 3-1 5-1 2 WW 7-2 46
5-2 Utah 2-4 5-1 2 WW 5-5 15
5-2 San Diego St. 1-3 1-2 0 WW 5-4 53
4-3 Brigham Young 1-4 4-1 0 LW 6-3 34
4-3 New Mexico 1-2 2-4 3 WL 3-7 83
3-4 Wyoming 0-5 2-1 1 WL 4-7 93
UNLV’s win at Louisville is looking all the more impressive.
CR A10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-0 Xavier 3-2 5-0 0 WW 9-1 7
6-1 Dayton 1-0 3-1 1 WW 6-2 32
5-1 St. Josephs 0-4 2-2 2 L 6-5 67
4-2 Temple 1-3 1-3 2 W 7-7 48
4-3 Rhode Island 1-4 3-2 1 WW 6-6 64
Xavier and Dayton are in good shape, but with only one Top 50 win, Dayton is no lock. St. Joe’s has a nice conference record, but no NCAA profile yet.
CR MVC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
10-1 Northern Iowa 0-1 4-2 3 WWWW 7-4 73
7-4 Creighton 1-0 4-3 3 WLWW 6-4 74
7-4 Illinois St. 0-0 3-2 2 LWLW 6-4 59
7-4 Bradley 0-3 1-3 3 LWWL 5-7 91
6-5 Evansville 0-2 2-3 2 LWW 2-5 70
Unfortunately, the Bracket Busters games weren’t readily available the last time I checked so the last 11+ is actually the last 12+ for these teams. I assume you can manually erase the first L or W for anyone in the Bracket Busters. As discussed previously, the MVC picked up few BCS wins this year and with no conference teams in the RPI top 50, the conference champ is no lock for an NCAA bid. Northern Iowa better keep winning.
CR CUSA T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-0 Memphis 2-3 5-0 0 W 6-2 11
5-2 Tulsa 2-5 2-0 2 WW 5-5 72
4-3 UTEP 1-4 2-1 3 WW 6-5 86
4-3 UAB 0-4 2-3 1 LW 5-8 44
3-3 Southern Miss 0-1 1-4 2 L 5-5 85
Tulsa would look a lot better if they had a one point win over Memphis instead of a one point loss.
CR Horizon T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
10-0 Butler 2-1 5-0 0 WWW 8-1 9
9-2 Green Bay 0-3 1-0 3 LWWW 7-4 79
6-5 Cleveland St. 1-3 0-2 3 LLWW 5-6 95
Everyone likes Butler.
CR WCC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-0 Gonzaga 4-2 2-1 1 WW 8-3 39
5-2 St. Marys 0-1 2-1 1 WWLL 10-3 50
Everyone likes Gonzaga.
CR Team T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
11-0 Siena 0-4 7-0 1 WWWW 6-5 20
11-0 Davidson 1-3 0-0 0 WW 8-3 30
9-0 Utah St. 1-1 3-0 0 WWW 9-1 39
5-2 Miami (Ohio) 1-5 0-1 1 WW 7-5 52
10-1 Northeastern 0-1 4-3 2 WWWW 9-4 57
8-3 George Mason 0-1 1-2 3 LLWL 5-6 60
9-2 VCU 0-1 5-2 3 WWLW 7-5 61
6-1 Buffalo 1-2 1-2 1 WW 8-3 71
7-3 Niagara 0-2 2-0 4 LWW 10-4 75
8-2 W. Kentucky 1-1 0-1 5 LW 4-7 77
I said in a previous post that I wasn’t going to show any other mid-majors, but the above teams are all worth keeping an eye on. Siena would probably get an at-large even without a Top 50 win if the season ended today. Meanwhile, if your favorite team beat any of the teams listed below, you better hope they keep winning, because they could fall out of the Top 100 in a heartbeat:
CR Team T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
5-3 Boise St. 0-3 1-1 2 WLW 4-5 84
6-1 St. F. Austin 0-1 1-1 3 WW 5-5 87
7-5 Fairfield 0-6 2-0 3 LLLWW 6-7 88
6-2 Nevada 0-4 1-0 4 WLW 5-4 90
5-1 American 0-2 0-2 3 LWW 7-6 92
4-0 Cornell 0-3 0-1 2 W 5-6 96
10-1 N. Dakota St 0-2 0-1 2 WWWW 6-5 98
6-5 Hofstra 0-1 1-5 2 WWWL 8-5 99
8-3 Drexel 0-2 3-4 2 WWWW 6-5 100
Note: I know Statsheet has a listing of the record vs the RPI Top 50 and Top 100, but my teams’ were always wrong when I looked. That probably has to do with the timing of when he ran the summary statistics relative to the daily RPI fluctuations, but I decided to just program this myself.
With the full schedule I can actually calculate the RPI myself, but I don’t want to deal with the home/away distinctions. Just to give you some idea of how annoying this is, RealtimeRPI has Southern Miss at 90th this morning, while the NCAA’s official list has Southern Miss at 85th. There are actually 22 differences between those two RPI measures this evening, using what I believe to be the exact same set of games. This is highly irritating, so I’m just going to use the NCAA’s official numbers. Unless I change my mind and decide to get the RPI some other way, the only time you should look for these charts is on selected Monday Nights between now and the end of the season.