Today’s post hopes to answer two questions:
1) Which good teams have the weakest resumes thus far?
Call them John Gasaway favorites. Example: “Someone needs to explain to me how UCLA is being overlooked right now.” Well, UCLA has about the same profile as Villanova:
Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
UCLA 8-2 Pac-10 WWW 3-4 5-0 0
Villanova 7-3 Big East WWW 3-4 6-0 0
I think UCLA is a legitimate Final Four team. (I’ll have more on that in the coming weeks.) But the Pac10 posted one of those head-scratcher non-conference slates, dominating some games but losing a lot of close games to bad teams. The net result is that while the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings for the Pac10 are strong, the RPI is terrible. And now all the Pac-10 teams are going to be under-seeded in the NCAA tournament.
2) Which weaker teams have posted the strongest resumes thus far?
On the flip side, you can pretty much put the whole Big Ten here. As I stated a few weeks ago, the Big Ten avoided the bad non-conference losses and the net result is that the RPI is great. Even teams like Wisconsin, that seemed dead in the water, have quality resumes, assuming the last 12 works out. Let’s get to the numbers.
First the key for new visitors:
RPI is the NCAA’s official figures posted Mondays on web1.ncaa.org.
RN is road/neutral from the same RPI post.
I calculated the rest of the figures for games through Sunday, February 8th.
CR is conference Record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses to teams outside the top 100.
L11+ is the teams record starting with the 11th to last regular season game.
And in today’s post only, PO is Pomeroy Rank.
Weak Resumes, Good Teams
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
21 Brigham Young 5-3 MWC LWW 2-3 2-2 0
25 San Diego St. 7-2 MWC WWWW 1-2 2-2 1
38 New Mexico 6-3 MWC WLWW 1-2 3-4 3
42 Davidson 13-1 Southern WWWL 1-3 0-0 1
BYU currently has a Pomeroy rating of 21, but I don’t think anyone is confusing them with a 6 seed.
I told you these were John Gasaway favorites. Last week John mentioned that New Mexico was criminally under-rated. But where was their PPP dominance in a home loss to Central Florida or against a terrible Texas Tech team? New Mexico’s improvement may ultimately lead them to be an NCAA team, but they have a lot of work to do to make up for those 3 bad losses.
Davidson got completely unlucky with how their Non-Conference schedule broke. They now hold just 1 win against the RPI top 100. I have a hard time believing they’d be left out of the tournament, but those numbers are brutal.
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
31 Kentucky 5-3 SEC LLL 2-4 2-2 1
7 West Virginia 5-5 Big East LLW 2-6 7-1 0
24 Georgetown 4-7 Big East LLWL 3-5 3-4 0
26 Miami (Fla.) 4-6 ACC LLLWL 3-6 3-1 1
When Kentucky wins, they look great. But they keep finding ways to lose the close games this year and the net result is a team without an NCAA quality resume yet. Against a weak SEC, they don’t have much more room for slip-up.
Can a top 7 efficiency team be a bubble team? That’s what a 2-6 record against the RPI top 50 means for West Virginia.
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
10 Gonzaga 8-0 WCC WWWL 3-3 3-1 1
12 Arizona St 7-4 Pac-10 LLWW 3-3 4-2 0
5 Memphis 8-0 CUSA WWW 3-3 6-0 0
6 UCLA 8-2 Pac-10 WWW 3-4 5-0 0
All of the above teams look like deep NCAA tournament contenders to me, but none of them have an elite resume.
I know I’ve seen Gonzaga play well this year, but they’ve seemingly thrown away their great Pomeroy ranking and richly talented team with a mediocre non-conference season.
Good Resumes, Weaker Teams
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
11 Michigan St 9-2 Big 10 WLWW 8-1 3-3 0
17 Wake Forest 5-3 ACC LLW 6-2 2-0 1
18 Oklahoma 9-0 Big 12 WWWW 9-0 6-1 0
The committee is going to love these teams. Is it right? Is it fair? Are they really the best? All I know is that all of these teams can make a case for a 1 or a 2 seed.
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
20 Xavier 8-1 A-10 WWWL 4-2 5-1 0
23 Marquette 9-1 BEast WWL 4-2 4-0 1
Marquette and Xavier still have sensational profiles despite borderline Pomeroy ranks. But how crushing was Marquette’s loss to South Florida? A week ago, there was no way you could even argue that UCLA deserved a higher seed than Marquette. And while the overall profile still looks good, that one loss is going to be all the ammunition people need to start knocking them down.
One piece of good news for Marquette? According to Hoya Prospectus’ latest Big East aerial, South Florida is the most improved team in Big East play.
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
22 Illinois 7-4 Big Ten LWLW 6-5 3-0 0
40 Ohio St. 7-4 Big Ten WWWW 6-5 2-0 0
48 Minnesota 6-5 Big Ten WWLL 4-4 4-1 0
I said there would be a lot of Big Ten teams who have great resumes.
PO Team CR Conf L11+ T50 N50 BL
35 Syracuse 6-5 BEast LLWL 4-4 3-2 0
41 Tennessee 5-3 SEC WWL 5-5 2-2 1
52 Florida St. 5-3 ACC LWW 3-4 4-1 0
65 Boston College 6-4 ACC WWWWL 3-5 4-0 2
62 Virginia Tech 5-3 ACC LLW 3-5 2-1 1
81 Dayton 7-2 A10 WWWL 1-0 4-1 2
There are not nearly as many Top 100 recruits on Boston College and Virginia Tech as other ACC schools and sometimes they get blown out. But to have winning records in the ACC at this point in the season? I don’t care what the efficiency stats say, these are teams deserving of NCAA bids.
At the end of the day, both the resume and the margin of victory matter. Whether you prefer to cheer for the Type 1 Gasaway favorites, or the Type 2 marginal teams who just get the job done, there’s always something to argue about.
Everyone
I only list teams in the Top 100:
CR ACC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-2 Duke 8-3 4-0 0 WLW 6-3 1
7-2 North Carolina 4-2 6-0 0 WWWW 9-1 6
6-4 Boston College 3-5 4-0 2 WWWWL 6-4 49
5-3 Wake Forest 6-2 2-0 1 LLW 8-2 14
5-3 Clemson 6-3 1-0 0 WWL 8-1 8
5-3 Florida St. 3-4 4-1 0 LWW 9-2 19
5-3 Virginia Tech 3-5 2-1 1 LLW 7-5 40
4-5 Maryland 3-7 2-0 1 LWLW 3-6 68
4-6 Miami (Fla.) 3-6 3-1 1 LLLWL 5-5 41
1-7 Virginia 0-9 0-1 2 LLL 1-6 100
CR Big East T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
10-1 Connecticut 7-1 6-0 0 WWWW 11-0 4
9-1 Marquette 4-2 4-0 1 WWL 6-3 24
9-1 Louisville 5-2 3-2 0 WLW 6-2 11
8-2 Pittsburgh 5-2 4-0 0 WWW 7-2 2
7-3 Villanova 3-4 6-0 0 WWW 7-3 12
6-5 Syracuse 4-4 3-2 0 LLWL 5-4 23
6-5 Cincinnati 3-6 3-2 0 WLWW 5-5 51
6-5 Providence 1-6 4-3 0 WLLL 3-6 67
5-5 West Virginia 2-6 7-1 0 LLW 8-5 16
4-6 Seton Hall 3-5 0-2 2 WWW 4-5 94
4-7 Georgetown 3-5 3-4 0 LLWL 3-6 38
3-7 Notre Dame 2-8 1-1 1 LLL 4-8 78
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
9-0 Oklahoma 9-0 6-1 0 WWWW 9-1 3
8-0 Kansas 6-2 3-1 1 WWW 5-3 17
7-2 Missouri 4-2 2-2 0 LWWW 6-4 22
5-4 Kansas St. 3-2 2-4 1 WWW 4-5 70
5-4 Nebraska 2-4 2-0 3 LWWW 3-4 66
4-4 Texas 4-3 2-4 0 LLL 6-5 45
3-5 Oklahoma St. 2-7 3-1 0 LWL 4-6 31
3-6 Texas A&M 1-5 4-2 0 WWLL 4-5 46
3-6 Baylor 2-7 3-0 1 LLLL 4-5 54
CR Big 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
9-2 Michigan St. 8-1 3-3 0 WLWW 10-2 7
7-4 Illinois 6-5 3-0 0 LWLW 6-4 15
7-4 Ohio St. 6-5 2-0 0 WWWW 4-3 20
6-4 Purdue 6-5 2-1 0 WLL 6-4 37
6-5 Minnesota 4-4 4-1 0 WWLL 5-3 25
6-5 Penn St. 3-6 2-1 0 WWLL 5-4 84
5-6 Wisconsin 3-7 4-2 0 LLWW 5-6 28
5-6 Michigan 3-7 4-2 0 LLWL 3-7 48
4-6 Northwestern 4-5 0-3 0 WWL 2-6 62
3-8 Iowa 1-8 3-1 2 LLLW 2-9 92
CR Pac 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-2 UCLA 3-4 5-0 0 WWW 6-3 26
8-3 Washington 4-4 4-1 1 WLW 5-5 18
7-4 California 4-4 4-1 1 LLWW 4-5 29
7-4 Arizona St. 3-3 4-2 0 LLWW 9-3 39
6-4 USC 2-5 4-1 1 WWL 3-6 42
6-5 Arizona 4-6 2-2 0 WWWW 5-6 53
4-7 Stanford 1-5 3-1 1 LWL 3-4 82
4-7 Washington St. 1-7 2-4 0 WLLL 5-5 96
CR SEC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-1 LSU 2-3 4-0 1 WWW 3-3 52
6-2 Florida 2-4 3-0 0 WLW 6-4 30
6-2 Mississippi St 0-0 6-4 3 LWW 5-4 79
6-3 South Carolina 1-3 4-1 1 WWLW 3-4 43
5-3 Tennessee 5-5 2-2 1 WWL 7-4 21
5-3 Kentucky 2-4 2-2 1 LLL 6-3 74
4-5 Vanderbilt 0-4 2-2 2 LWWW 5-4 93
4-5 Mississippi 0-5 3-4 1 WWWL 3-8 63
1-7 Arkansas 2-2 1-4 2 LLL 2-5 99
CR MWC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
7-2 Utah 2-4 4-1 2 WWWW 7-5 13
7-2 San Diego St. 1-2 2-2 1 WWWW 6-4 47
6-3 New Mexico 1-2 3-4 3 WLWW 3-7 75
5-3 Brigham Young 2-3 2-2 0 LWW 7-3 34
5-4 UNLV 3-2 3-2 2 WWLL 6-3 55
CR A10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-1 Xavier 4-2 5-1 0 WWWL 9-2 5
7-1 St. Josephs 0-4 2-1 3 LWW 7-5 72
7-2 Dayton 1-0 4-1 2 WWWL 7-3 33
6-3 Duquesne 1-4 0-1 2 WWLW 6-4 89
5-3 Temple 1-4 2-3 2 WLW 7-8 44
5-4 Rhode Island 1-5 3-2 1 WWWL 7-7 65
CR CUSA T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-0 Memphis 3-3 6-0 0 WWW 8-2 9
7-2 Tulsa 2-5 3-0 2 WWWW 6-4 69
6-3 UAB 0-5 3-3 0 LWWW 6-8 32
5-3 Houston 1-1 2-4 2 LWW 5-5 91
4-4 UTEP 0-3 4-4 2 WWL 6-6 87
3-5 Southern Miss 0-2 2-4 3 LLL 5-6 97
CR MVC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
11-2 Northern Iowa 0-1 3-2 4 WWWWL 8-4 83
9-4 Creighton 1-0 4-3 3 LWWWW 8-4 60
8-5 Illinois St. 0-0 2-1 4 WLWWL 7-4 77
7-6 Evansville 0-2 2-3 3 WWLW 2-6 81
CR Horizon T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
12-1 Butler 2-1 4-1 0 WWLWW 10-2 10
11-2 Green Bay 1-3 1-0 3 WWWWW 7-4 58
8-5 Cleveland St. 1-3 0-2 3 LWWWW 7-6 86
CR WCC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-0 Gonzaga 3-3 3-1 1 WWWL 9-4 36
6-3 St. Marys 1-1 1-1 2 WLLWL 10-4 59
CR WAC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
11-0 Utah St. 1-1 1-0 0 WWWW 9-1 35
6-3 Boise St. 0-3 0-0 3 LWW 5-5 80
CR CAA T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
11-2 Northeastern 0-2 4-2 3 WWWLW 9-5 64
10-3 VCU 0-1 4-3 3 WLWLW 7-6 73
9-4 George Mason 0-1 1-2 4 LWLWL 5-7 57
7-6 Hofstra 0-1 1-4 4 WWLLW 8-6 98
CR MAAC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
12-1 Siena 0-4 6-0 2 WWWWL 7-6 27
10-3 Niagara 0-2 2-0 4 WWWWW 11-4 71
8-6 Fairfield 0-6 1-1 3 LLWWWL 7-8 88
CR MAC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
8-1 Buffalo 1-2 1-2 1 WWW 8-3 76
7-2 Miami (Ohio) 1-5 0-1 1 WWW 8-5 56
CR OTHER T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI
13-1 Davidson 1-3 0-0 1 WWWL 9-3 50
11-2 Western Kentucky 1-1 0-3 3 LWWWW 6-7 61
7-1 American 0-2 0-2 3 LWWWW 8-6 85
7-2 S. F. Austin 0-1 1-1 4 WWLW 5-6 90
12-1 North Dakota St. 0-2 0-1 2 WWWWW 8-5 95