A little over a month ago, on January 6th, I made some predictions of who would move up in the Pomeroy rankings. Let’s see if the teams I picked have actually improved. I list the change in Pomeroy Rank in parentheses.
Miami (30th to 26th): I liked the idea of shortening the rotation, and whether by choice or fate, Eddie Rios was cut loose.
Washington (18th to 16th): Again, I liked the promise of a shortened rotation. This was a really tough call given that Washington was already 18th.
UCLA (14th to 6th): Ben Howland is very good.
Michigan St. (25th to 11th): This one was easy.
Wisconsin (48th to 36th): The day after I made this prediction, Wisconsin blew out Northwestern by 29. That moved the Badgers up and they’ve stayed up despite a massive losing streak.
Syracuse (33rd to 35th): It takes the Orange to let a Hoya fan down.
Louisville (19th to 7th): Louisville’s offense had nowhere to go but up, and the defense has held strong.
So I was basically right about 6 of the 7 teams improving, although some of these changes are pretty trivial.
What Can Change in a Month?
A couple days after making these predictions and bashing the sample size for the Pomeroy Rankings, I made a screen shot of the Pomeroy Rankings. I hoped to be able to document how much things changed in conference play. And while some teams’ fortunes have definitely changed, surprisingly only 15 of 73 BCS teams have moved up or down more than 20 spots in the rankings. Is that because few teams change their spots? Or is it because the non-conference slate still occupies more than half of the season total? Either way, I’m thinking of being more cautious when I attack these ratings for small sample sizes in January.
Let’s take a look at the BCS teams Pomeroy Ranking on games through January 8th, on games through February 9th, and the change:
Jan Feb Ch Team
1 1 0 Duke
5 2 3 Connecticut
4 3 1 North Carolina
3 4 -1 Pittsburgh
13 6 7 UCLA
16 7 9 Louisville
2 8 -6 West Virginia
11 9 2 Missouri
The more things change, the more things stay the same. Duke is still on top.
Jan Feb Ch Team
27 11 16 Michigan St.
7 12 -5 Arizona St.
19 13 6 Kansas
32 14 18 Villanova
15 15 0 Clemson
23 16 7 Washington
9 17 -8 Wake Forest
18 18 0 Oklahoma
20 19 1 Purdue
At about the time I made this screen shot, Spartans Weblog said something similar to this. “Well, Pomeroy predicts us to go 11-7 in conference play and lose several of the upcoming games. Time to change those numbers.” Indeed the Spartans have risen up to become a legitimate Final Four team.
Jan Feb Ch Team
24 22 2 Illinois
29 23 6 Marquette
6 24 -18 Georgetown
31 26 5 Miami FL
22 27 -5 Texas
21 30 -9 California
26 31 -5 Kentucky
46 32 14 Southern California
14 34 -20 Kansas St.
35 35 0 Syracuse
34 36 -2 Wisconsin
41 37 4 Florida
84 39 45 Louisiana St.
28 40 -12 Tennessee
Has anyone improved more than LSU? Kansas St. probably fits the description of “falling back to earth”, but they are still in competition for an NCAA tournament spot.
Jan Feb Ch Team
44 41 3 Ohio St.
50 43 7 Arizona
30 45 -15 Baylor
42 46 -4 Oklahoma St.
54 48 6 Minnesota
77 51 26 Florida St.
52 53 -1 South Carolina
60 54 6 Washington St.
36 55 -19 Notre Dame
40 56 -16 Stanford
75 59 16 Nebraska
89 62 27 Virginia Tech
55 63 -8 Northwestern
66 65 1 Boston College
90 66 24 Cincinnati
62 68 -6 Michigan
51 69 -18 Maryland
Did anyone expect Virginia Tech, Florida St., Nebraska, and Cincinnati to pull together and get this much better?
Jan Feb Ch Team
87 73 14 Texas A&M
67 76 -9 Penn St.
86 78 8 Mississippi St.
80 80 0 Providence
57 81 -24 Vanderbilt
53 85 -32 Iowa
79 89 -10 North Carolina St.
70 90 -20 Auburn
103 93 10 Seton Hall
92 94 -2 Mississippi
99 96 3 Georgia Tech
88 102 -14 Virginia
148 104 44 South Florida
109 108 1 Texas Tech
73 112 -39 Arkansas
Iowa has lost players to injury/suspension, but what is Arkansas’ excuse. Actually, prior to the Oklahoma and Texas games, Arkansas was performing at about this level. Those two wins appear to be flukes.
Jan Feb Ch Team
111 118 -7 St. John's
105 124 -19 Iowa St.
122 125 -3 Alabama
130 138 -8 Rutgers
173 145 28 Colorado
126 148 -22 Oregon
207 153 54 Oregon St.
157 187 -30 Georgia
160 189 -29 DePaul
217 208 9 Indiana
Indiana was performing at such a low level, they had to improve.
Note the biggest improvements:
Oregon St. – New coach, takes time to learn system
LSU – New coach, takes time to learn system
South Florida – Some mid-season transfers joined the team
And here are some notable non-BCS teams:
Jan Feb Ch Team
10 5 5 Memphis
8 10 -2 Gonzaga
17 20 -3 Xavier
12 21 -9 Brigham Young
38 25 13 San Diego St.
33 28 5 Utah
25 29 -4 Butler
49 33 16 UAB
78 38 40 New Mexico
37 42 -5 Davidson
64 44 20 Temple
61 47 14 Nevada Las Vegas
43 49 -6 Utah St.
65 50 15 Houston
68 52 16 Tulsa
59 57 2 St. Mary's
My instinct was that these teams would suffer in conference play. For example, in order to maintain its spot, Davidson has to blow out most conference opponents by 20 points. And I don’t care how good you are, blowing a team out game-after-game is hard. But lo and behold, most of the notable non-BCS teams have held strong. And as mentioned yesterday, John Gasaway favorite New Mexico has been on fire.
Jan Feb Ch Team
83 58 25 North Dakota St.
48 60 -12 Rhode Island
39 61 -22 Cleveland St.
58 64 -6 Miami OH
74 67 7 Creighton
76 70 6 George Mason
71 71 0 Texas El Paso
56 72 -16 Virginia Commonwealth
97 74 23 Akron
95 75 20 Wisconsin Green Bay
69 77 -8 Siena
63 79 -16 Niagara
93 82 11 Oral Roberts
45 83 -38 Dayton
101 84 17 Wright St.
47 86 -39 Illinois St.
118 87 31 Vermont
100 88 12 Northeastern
106 91 15 Saint Joseph's
102 92 10 Buffalo
141 95 46 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa’s dominance in the MVC has raised them up significantly, but Siena actually looked better in losing to elite teams than they do against their conference opponents. I find that pretty surprising given that Siena has dominated the MAAC this year.
Jan Feb Ch Team
168 265 -97 Air Force
198 274 -76 Harvard
167 241 -74 San Francisco
129 200 -71 Virginia Military Inst
161 229 -68 Jacksonville St.
163 230 -67 Southern Utah
196 263 -67 Florida Atlantic
156 221 -65 Lamar
218 277 -59 Georgia Southern
72 129 -57 Belmont
85 140 -55 Middle Tennessee
216 270 -54 Missouri Kansas City
82 134 -52 Drake
174 225 -51 Texas St.
Just before the January number, Harvard upset Boston College. And VMI won at Kentucky this year. It was a nice run.
Jan Feb Ch Team
186 136 50 Massachusetts
154 101 53 Kent St.
276 222 54 The Citadel
199 142 57 Tennessee Martin
247 183 64 Nicholls St.
185 109 76 Sam Houston St.
266 188 78 Troy
190 106 84 Robert Morris
246 160 86 Arkansas Little Rock
235 147 88 Holy Cross
268 176 92 Princeton
228 131 97 Boston University
279 180 99 Texas A&M CC
Thank goodness for conference play!