ACC Player Development

Part 5 of the series looks at every player in the ACC playing roughly 20% of his team's minutes when active.

ACC Freshmen

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

17.4, 73%, 24%, 121.6, *Malik Beasley, Florida St.

17.0, 81%, 24%, 119.1, *+Brandon Ingram, Duke

16.4, 72%, 28%, 102.8, *+Dwayne Bacon, Florida St.

13.5, 76%, 26%, 97.1, *Bryant Crawford, Wake Forest

13.4, 83%, 22%, 102.6, *+Malachi Richardson, Syracuse

12.6, 83%, 19%, 105.7, *Maverick Rowan, North Carolina St.

11.9, 62%, 21%, 125.9, *Luke Kennard, Duke

11.6, 82%, 23%, 90.2, Jerome Robinson, Boston College

8.9, 74%, 15%, 121.3, *Tyler Lydon, Syracuse

8.5, 63%, 20%, 104.3, *+Derryck Thornton, Duke

7.6, 50%, 19%, 119.3, *+Donovan Mitchell, Louisville

7.2, 35%, 23%, 117.1, John Collins, Wake Forest

6.8, 48%, 18%, 106.4, Kerry Blackshear, Jr., Virginia Tech

5.9, 69%, 14%, 90.9, +A.J. Turner, Boston College

Players marked with a * were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.

A few notable players are missing from this list. Virginia Tech's Chris Clarke was off to a nice start before he fractured his foot, but since he played so few games, I am not listing his stats. Two consensus Top 100 recruits are barely playing and didn't meet my minutes cut-off, Wake Forest's Doral Moore and North Carolina's Kenny Williams.

Let's start off by noting that Malik Beasley is putting up numbers very similar to Duke's Brandon Ingram. This is extremely impressive because unlike Ingram, Beasley didn't enroll at Florida St. with the expectation that he would be the go-to-player. The team brought in Dwayne Bacon, who was more highly rated, and the team brought back nearly all its starters from last year. Beasley had to practice hard to earn his large role, and he has not only delivered in practice, he has delivered on the court.

The second thing I want to discuss is how critical the injury was to transfer Terry Henderson for NC State. With Henderson out, Anthony Barber and Maverick Rowan have had to log huge minutes. Cat Barber has been phenomenal, but Maverick Rowan has been the typical quality freshman. Rowan has a great game and then he has a bad game. In a normal season if Rowan wasn't playing well, Mark Gottfried could put him on the bench. But this season he doesn't really have a choice; he has to keep Rowan on the floor.

Syracuse's Franklin Howard and Kaleb Johnson have scored 26 points and 16 points respectively on the season. I find this pretty shocking, but even with Howard playing a little bit more in a few games, Michael Gbinije has pretty much become the full-time PG. I thought he might be the part-time PG, but as the full-time PG that has opened the door for Malachi Richardson to play a ton at the wing and he has made the most of his opportunity.

Duke has been on an incredible roll with freshmen point-guards that are highly ranked out of high school. Tyus Jones, Austin Rivers, and Kyrie Irving were all highly ranked recruits that received major playing time when healthy and were eventually selected in the first round of the NBA draft after their freshman season. But this time Derryck Thornton has to count as a mild disappointment. Thornton was the RSCI #13 recruit, and despite the team having an open slot at point-guard, he is only starting sporadically. He is also Duke's least efficient regular rotation player. He isn't bad by any normal standard, but by elite prospect Duke standards, he isn't great. And Chase Jeter has been even worse. In the preseason at SI we projected Duke's Chase Jeter to be the 40th most impactful freshman, despite the fact that he was the RSCI #14 recruit, but even that seemingly pessimistic projection was way too optimistic:

 

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

5.8, 53%, 18%, 98.1, *Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech

5.7, 42%, 15%, 124.4, Matt Ryan, Notre Dame

5.6, 43%, 18%, 109.4, *Raymond Spalding, Louisville

4.6, 28%, 18%, 133.7, Anthony Lawrence Jr., Miami FL

4.5, 40%, 16%, 104.4, Terance Mann, Florida St.

4.5, 36%, 14%, 116.7, Matt Milon, Boston College

4.3, 28%, 21%, 88.9, Sammy Barnes-Thompkins, Boston College

4.0, 28%, 20%, 108.1, Damon Wilson, Pittsburgh

3.5, 48%, 13%, 88.0, Ervins Meznieks, Boston College

3.0, 22%, 24%, 86.4, *+Deng Adel, Louisville

2.5, 30%, 10%, 142.5, Rex Pflueger, Notre Dame

2.3, 26%, 15%, 82.1, Idy Diallo, Boston College

1.9, 19%, 19%, 91.9, Jack Salt, Virginia

1.7, 19%, 17%, 85.6, *+Chase Jeter, Duke

1.4, 23%, 18%, 82.9, *Franklin Howard, Syracuse

Boston College has played a lot of freshman, but only Matt Milon (over 50% of his threes) has been efficient and Milon is a role player who rarely plays or shoots. Don't knock Deng Adel for his low production; he is recovering from an injury. Notre Dame plays its starters a lot of minutes, but Matt Ryan has somehow earned his way into the rotation with some great shooting.

 

ACC Guys Who Sat Out 2 Years Due to Injury

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

4.0, 34%, 18%, 90.8, Darryl Hicks, Boston College

It is brutal to be injured for two years and then get healthy in time to play for such a depleted team.

ACC JUCOs

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

3.5, 25%, 18%, 102.1, Benji Bell, Florida St.

2.2, 20%, 17%, 105.7, Johnny Hamilton, Virginia Tech

Benji Bell picked the wrong year to join Florida St. The guard and wing positions are just too loaded for him to earn playing time.

ACC D1 Transfers

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam

17.0, 81%, 21%, 128.4, Damion Lee, Louisville, 21.4, Drexel

16.8, 82%, 33%, 92.0, Eli Carter, Boston College, 8.8, Florida

15.8, 76%, 25%, 117.1, Zach LeDay, Virginia Tech, 3.5, South Florida

14.6, 70%, 29%, 96.0, Seth Allen, Virginia Tech, 13.4, Maryland

14.5, 72%, 21%, 120.8, Adam Smith, Georgia Tech, 13.4, Virginia Tech

12.1, 70%, 21%, 116.5, Trey Lewis, Louisville, 16.3, Cleveland St.

11.5, 56%, 25%, 108.1, Nick Jacobs, Georgia Tech, 8.4, Alabama

9.8, 76%, 19%, 107.9, Avry Holmes, Clemson, 12.5, San Francisco

6.6, 55%, 13%, 124.2, Sterling Smith, Pittsburgh, 14.1, Coppin St.

5.9, 57%, 15%, 102.7, Kamari Murphy, Miami FL, 6.1, Oklahoma

5.7, 54%, 15%, 114.7, Darius Thompson, Virginia, 2.5, Tennessee

3.9, 36%, 17%, 105.3, James White, Georgia Tech, 11.9, Arkansas Little Rock

2.5, 34%, 13%, 111.8, Rafael Maia, Pittsburgh, 9.9, Brown

1.9, 24%, 13%, 100.9, Alonzo Nelson-Ododa, Pittsburgh, 6.6, Richmond

Damion Lee was pushed pretty hard by Deng Adel in the preseason and when Adel went down, Lee was more than ready to be one of the nation's best wing-players. Eli Carter has had to score by default for Boston College, as expected. Thus the transfer that has probably surprised the most is Virginia Tech's Zach LeDay. My model thought he might get the most playing time in Virginia Tech's front-court, but he wasn't a very physical player at South Florida, and it wasn't clear he could be this good. Instead he's raised his rebounding rates substantially, he's increased his block rate, and he is shooting better across the board to boot.

The Pittsburgh frontcourt transfers have been a bit of a bust. After the team struggled to defend the paint last year they were supposed to fill the gap, but instead the team has looked in-house at players like Sheldon Jeter and Ryan Luther.

Finally Playing

The following players were not rotation players last year and have finally cracked the lineup:

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

6.3, 60%, 16%, 108.9, Cody Martin, North Carolina St.

5.4, 49%, 19%, 89.5, Gabe DeVoe, Clemson

5.2, 42%, 18%, 108.4, Jaylen Johnson, Louisville

5.0, 41%, 18%, 106.3, DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse

4.8, 24%, 21%, 122.6, Cameron Johnson, Pittsburgh

3.8, 37%, 12%, 130.2, Ben Lammers, Georgia Tech

3.7, 27%, 17%, 111.6, Ryan Luther, Pittsburgh

3.5, 33%, 18%, 96.9, Anas Mahmoud, Louisville

3.1, 37%, 13%, 95.5, Rondale Watson, Wake Forest

2.2, 29%, 13%, 108.7, Matt Farrell, Notre Dame

1.8, 38%, 9%, 80.1, Trent VanHorn, Wake Forest

Players who have barely played don’t typically become high scorers. Jumping back to the Pac-12 column, that is why what George King is doing at Colorado is so impressive.

Syracuse's DaJuan Coleman isn’t a major scorer, but his defense seems pretty critical to me at this point. There are a lot of times when he is on the bench that Syracuse looks over-matched in the paint.

Returning Players

Once again, when interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and opponent defense. Louisville's schedule has been significantly easier defensively this year than it was on the whole season last year. Meanwhile, Florida St.’s games have had almost 8 more possessions per game than their games had on the full year last year. Obviously that is going to inflate scoring totals.
 

ChOppDef, Team, ChRawPace

5.1, Louisville, 2.3

4.3, Boston College, 4.1

4.3, North Carolina, 3.5

3.7, North Carolina St., 3.9

3.7, Pittsburgh, 6.9

2.9, Virginia Tech, 7.1

2.8, Duke, 3.3

2.4, Miami FL, 5.5

2.3, Notre Dame, 2.0

2.2, Clemson, 1.2

2.0, Syracuse, -1.3

1.7, Georgia Tech, 4.7

1.2, Wake Forest, 3.5

0.6, Virginia, 3.4

0.3, Florida St., 7.7

 

Here are the biggest changes in PPG:

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

16.1, 66%, 3%, 11.6, +Grayson Allen, Duke, So, 20.6

11.3, 19%, 6%, 10.6, Anthony Barber, North Carolina St., Jr, 23.4

8.1, 50%, 3%, 4.3, Joel Berry, North Carolina, So, 12.3

7.9, 26%, 6%, 20.4, Ja'Quan Newton, Miami FL, So, 11.9

7.2, 14%, 10%, 16.7, Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville, So, 10.2

6.6, 40%, 0%, -1.2, +Bonzie Colson, Jr., Notre Dame, So, 12.2

6.4, 20%, 5%, 5.9, Abdul-Malik Abu, North Carolina St., So, 12.7

6.2, 38%, 1%, 0.7, Caleb Martin, North Carolina St., So, 11.1

6.1, 30%, 2%, 8.0, Matt Jones, Duke, Jr, 12.1

6.0, 49%, 3%, -8.8, Marshall Plumlee, Duke, Sr, 8.2

5.9, 45%, -2%, 7.7, +V.J. Beachem, Notre Dame, Jr, 11.8

5.5, 31%, 2%, 25.5, Quentin Snider, Louisville, So, 9.6

5.3, 22%, 3%, 10.3, +Amile Jefferson, Duke, Sr, 11.4

4.8, 2%, 4%, 17.0, London Perrantes, Virginia, Jr, 11.3

4.5, 3%, 8%, 19.8, Mangok Mathiang, Louisville, Jr, 7.1

Players marked with a + are players we projected as breakout players at SI.com. We were 4 for 4 in the ACC as Allen, Colson, Beachem, and Jefferson have all scored at a much higher level than last year when healthy.

As discussed earlier, Terry Henderson’s injury opened the door for Anthony Barber to be even more aggressive for North Carolina St. Joel Berry also benefited from Marcus Paige missing the start of the season. He’s become a confident polished player as a sophomore.

Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku is the ACC player to show the biggest increase in aggressiveness. Onuaku used just 13% of his team’s possessions last year. This year he uses 23%. And he’s lowered his turnovers and improved slightly at his free throw shooting at the same time which is a great accomplishment. Mangok Mathiang was making similar progress though an injury interrupted that. Meanwhile Quentin Snider has become a much more efficient player this year. Rick Pitino is mostly winning because he is a dominant defensive coach, but he knows a thing or two about developing players too.

Ja’Quan Newton has an argument for the most improved player in the ACC as he is tied for third with a huge 6% jump in aggressiveness, and his efficiency has jumped by 20 points. Newton’s turnover rate, free throw shooting, and two point percentage are all much better than last year.

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

4.5, 10%, 4%, 6.1, Michael Gbinije, Syracuse, Sr, 17.2

4.2, 7%, 0%, 13.6, Devin Thomas, Wake Forest, Sr, 16.3

4.1, 6%, 1%, 11.7, Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson, Jr, 17.2

3.9, 12%, 4%, 16.0, Sheldon Jeter, Pittsburgh, Jr, 8.6

3.8, 5%, 0%, 14.4, Brice Johnson, North Carolina, Sr, 16.7

3.8, 2%, 2%, 8.7, Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia, Sr, 17.8

3.7, -8%, 6%, 2.9, Mike Young, Pittsburgh, Jr, 17.0

3.6, 1%, 6%, -0.4, Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame, Jr, 16.0

3.1, 9%, -1%, 22.2, Isaiah Hicks, North Carolina, Jr, 9.8

3.0, 32%, -4%, 17.7, Jordan Roper, Clemson, Sr, 9.7

3.0, 9%, 0%, 1.3, Anthony Gill, Virginia, Sr, 14.6

3.0, 10%, 6%, 8.1, Sidy Djitte, Clemson, Jr, 5.1

2.6, 23%, 1%, 17.5, Devon Hall, Virginia, So, 4.4

2.6, 8%, 3%, -0.5, Steve Vasturia, Notre Dame, Jr, 12.6

2.5, 28%, -2%, 27.5, Isaiah Wilkins, Virginia, So, 4.2

2.5, 30%, 2%, 0.2, Theo Pinson, North Carolina, So, 5.4

Virginia's Isaiah Wilkins turnover rate has plummeted this year leading to the biggest jump in efficiency in the ACC, but he is such a low-usage role player that it matters less than you might think.

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

2.1, 13%, 3%, -9.4, Davon Reed, Miami FL, Jr, 10.3

2.0, 2%, 1%, 7.4, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Georgia Tech, Sr, 15.6

1.8, -8%, 3%, 2.4, Jamel Artis, Pittsburgh, Jr, 15.5

1.7, -2%, -1%, 11.1, Sheldon McClellan, Miami FL, Sr, 16.1

1.6, 13%, 2%, 4.2, Tyler Roberson, Syracuse, Jr, 9.8

1.5, 7%, -1%, 9.8, Donte Grantham, Clemson, So, 10.3

1.4, 10%, -4%, -2.8, Jalen Hudson, Virginia Tech, So, 8.3

1.3, 3%, 6%, -18.9, Dennis Clifford, Boston College, Sr, 8.2

1.2, 2%, 1%, -0.3, Justin Jackson, North Carolina, So, 12.0

1.2, 5%, 1%, -1.0, Nate Britt, North Carolina, Jr, 6.7

1.1, 9%, -3%, 8.3, Charles Mitchell, Georgia Tech, Sr, 10.9

1.1, 14%, 1%, -8.7, Zach Auguste, Notre Dame, Sr, 13.9

1.0, -10%, 0%, 12.6, James Robinson, Pittsburgh, Sr, 9.9

0.9, 3%, -2%, 20.2, Ivan Cruz Uceda, Miami FL, Sr, 6.1

0.9, -7%, 3%, 5.5, Landry Christ Nnoko, Clemson, Sr, 8.5

Dennis Clifford has had to take a larger role in the Boston College offense this year and he has seen the biggest drop in efficiency in the ACC. And certainly, the increase in shot volume explains his increase in turnover rate and lower shooting percentage. But what explains his drop in free throw percentage?

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

0.8, 4%, 0%, 0.1, Kostas Mitoglou, Wake Forest, So, 10.5

0.8, 11%, -8%, 27.5, Justin Bibbs, Virginia Tech, So, 12.2

0.7, 4%, 1%, -6.2, Boris Bojanovsky, Florida St., Sr, 5.8

0.6, 7%, 3%, -4.9, Garland Owens, Boston College, Jr, 4.0

0.4, 1%, 2%, 1.1, Joel James, North Carolina, Sr, 2.9

0.3, -8%, 1%, 13.0, Greg McClinton, Wake Forest, So, 3.7

0.3, 9%, -2%, 6.7, Lennard Freeman, North Carolina St., Jr, 3.9

0.2, -3%, -1%, 5.1, Mike Tobey, Virginia, Sr, 7.1

0.2, -1%, 1%, 2.8, Trevor Cooney, Syracuse, Sr, 13.5

0.1, 8%, 0%, 0.3, Mitchell Wilbekin, Wake Forest, So, 7.3

0.1, -1%, 0%, 5.5, Marial Shayok, Virginia, So, 3.9

0.1, -3%, 0%, 6.9, James Palmer, Miami FL, So, 3.8

0.1, 0%, -4%, 4.6, Shane Henry, Virginia Tech, Sr, 2.4

0.0, -1%, -1%, 4.1, Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina, Jr, 11.3

Justin Bibbs is tied with the biggest jump in efficiency in the ACC, but that is largely because he has become a more passive player. He is taking less bad two point jumpers this season.

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

-0.1, 9%, -1%, -9.3, BeeJay Anya, North Carolina St., Jr, 4.4

-0.3, 12%, -5%, 10.7, Angel Rodriguez, Miami FL, Sr, 11.7

-0.3, 0%, -4%, 9.5, Tadric Jackson, Georgia Tech, So, 5.1

-0.6, 1%, -3%, 3.1, Tonye Jekiri, Miami FL, Sr, 8.0

-0.7, 4%, 1%, -12.6, Cornelius Hudson, Wake Forest, So, 6.8

-0.8, -2%, -2%, -6.0, Josh Smith, Clemson, Sr, 1.6

-0.9, -12%, 0%, 14.2, Devon Bookert, Florida St., Sr, 9.1

-1.0, 3%, -4%, 13.3, Josh Heath, Georgia Tech, Jr, 3.3

-1.0, -13%, -3%, 23.5, Travis Jorgenson, Georgia Tech, Jr, 2.7

-1.1, -7%, -1%, 8.8, Quinton Stephens, Georgia Tech, Jr, 4.9

-1.6, -7%, -1%, 0.9, Marcus Paige, North Carolina, Sr, 12.4

-1.7, -22%, 3%, -17.8, Evan Nolte, Virginia, Sr, 1.4

-2.0, -9%, -1%, -13.4, Jarquez Smith, Florida St., Jr, 4.1

-2.7, -26%, 0%, 4.4, Chris Jones, Pittsburgh, Jr, 5.8

-3.1, -26%, -4%, 14.0, Phil Cofer, Florida St., So, 3.8

-3.2, -10%, -4%, 5.9, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida St., So, 11.7

-4.1, -20%, -7%, -15.5, Devin Wilson, Virginia Tech, Jr, 2.4

-7.3, -4%, -8%, -14.3, Codi Miller-McIntyre, Wake Forest, Sr, 7.2

-8.1, -32%, -7%, -11.2, Montay Brandon, Florida St., Sr, 3.7

Several Florida St. players, most notably Montay Brandon, have seen their playing time and shot volume squeezed out by Florida St.’s elite recruiting class. Wake Forest’s Codi Miller-McIntyre hasn’t been the same player since returning from his injury. It is sad to see the senior go out like this.