Pac 12 Player Development

The Pac-12 has really been hit with the injury bug this year. Injuries to Stanford's Reid Travis and Oregon's Dylan Ennis have significantly changed the makeup of those teams. Arizona has lost two critical freshmen in Ray Smith and Alonzo Trier, and Elliot Pitts is also out. Utah's Kenneth Ogbe and Washington St.'s Valentine Izundu have missed time. UCLA's Gyorgy Goloman and Oregon St.'s Daniel Gomis have only recently returned and Oregon St.'s Jarmal Reid was out due to injury and then because he was suspended for tripping a referee. None of these players are shown below.  

But I will show the stats for Cal's Tyrone Wallace because he played 18 games and the team is hoping to have him back before the Pac-12 tournament. I also show the numbers for Arizona's Kaleb Tarczewski and Oregon's Jordan Bell who have returned to the lineup for their respective teams. But before we get to the returning Pac-12 players, let's start with the debuts:

Pac 12 Freshmen

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

15.8, 67%, 33%, 99.4, *+Jaylen Brown, California

14.6, 80%, 25%, 96.7, *+Dejounte Murray, Washington

13.5, 72%, 22%, 115.1, *+Tyler Dorsey, Oregon

12.5, 70%, 21%, 121.0, *+Ivan Rabb, California

12.4, 67%, 24%, 108.1, *Tres Tinkle, Oregon St.

12.2, 61%, 22%, 112.1, *Bennie Boatwright, USC

12.0, 55%, 23%, 109.7, *Marquese Chriss, Washington

11.1, 79%, 20%, 98.1, *Aaron Holiday, UCLA

9.9, 49%, 25%, 100.2, *+Stevie Thompson, Oregon St.

Players marked with a * were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.

The recruiting rankings for the Pac-12 were pretty much spot-on. Brown, Murray, Dorsey, and Rabb were viewed by all scouting services to be instant impact guys and all four have delivered. Brown could improve his game by taking a few less threes and making a higher percentage of his free throws, but he has been a huge part of Cal's offense. I'm surprised a freshman averaging 16 points and 6 boards per game barely gets mentioned on national telecasts.

 

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

9.4, 58%, 19%, 101.5, David Crisp, Washington

8.6, 57%, 19%, 96.0, *+Noah Dickerson, Washington

7.9, 53%, 19%, 107.7, Drew Eubanks, Oregon St.

7.1, 43%, 20%, 103.5, *Chimezie Metu, USC

7.0, 43%, 24%, 101.1, Marcus Sheffield, Stanford

6.0, 57%, 14%, 100.0, Matisse Thybulle, Washington

4.4, 30%, 19%, 88.4, *+Prince Ali, UCLA

4.1, 50%, 13%, 101.2, *+Jonah Bolden, UCLA

Jonah Bolden was a partial qualifier last year so technically he only has 3 years of eligibility left, but this is his first year playing college basketball, so I think it is best to compare him to the group of freshmen. It is fascinating to me how a year away from college basketball makes some players better, but hurts other players. After a year of ineligibility, Jonah Bolden and Florida's Brandone Francis-Ramirez have looked rusty. Meanwhile Providence's Rodney Bullock has returned from two years away from basketball to play great.

At SI we thought Prince Ali and Jonah Bolden would both get ample opportunity to earn playing time given UCLA's lack of depth. Ali and Bolden were both ranked 36th by RSCI (in 2014 and 2015 respectively). But their lack of production just goes to show that outside the Top 30, recruits don't always play well right away.  If you are looking for a reason that UCLA has a losing record in conference play, most people want to complain about Bryce Alford's inconsistency or the team's lack of defense. But it would help a lot of UCLA was getting more out of its bench.

There are not a lot of surprises in the Pac-12 as most of the freshmen that are producing were consensus Top 100 recruits. David Crisp is probably the biggest surprise in the Pac-12. He was viewed as somewhere between the 4th and 6th best recruit in Washington's recruiting class and he wasn't a consensus Top 100 player. His ORtg may not be spectacular, but it is fair to say the rest of the freshmen in the Pac-12 would like to be posting that level of efficiency:

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

3.6, 39%, 15%, 98.7, Thomas Akyazili, Colorado

2.7, 21%, 21%, 86.1, Robert Franks, Washington St.

2.6, 20%, 21%, 88.5, *Justin Simon, Arizona

2.4, 23%, 15%, 89.5, Dominic Green, Washington

2.2, 25%, 16%, 89.9, Kendall Small, Oregon

2.0, 24%, 16%, 85.7, Derrick Bruce, Oregon St.

1.6, 20%, 15%, 91.6, Alex Olesinski, UCLA

1.3, 21%, 13%, 84.1, Cameron Walker, Stanford

Arizona's Justin Simon was a Top 100 recruit, but he's stuck as the team’s #3 PG. I think it is too early to call him a bust given his limited playing time at his natural position.  Arizona's Chance Comanche and Oregon's Trevor Manuel were also Top 100 recruits and they have not even cracked the rotation for their respective teams. At SI, we also pegged Josh Sharma as a possible breakout player given how much he played on Stanford's summer overseas tour, but he has barely played and didn't even crack the 20% minutes threshold for the above table.

Pac 12 JUCOs

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

12.7, 66%, 21%, 121.6, Chris Boucher, Oregon

10.3, 66%, 20%, 118.3, Lorenzo Bonam, Utah

9.5, 55%, 21%, 109.9, Obinna Oleka, Arizona St.

9.0, 62%, 21%, 110.3, Kadeem Allen, Arizona, Jr

7.8, 58%, 21%, 97.1, Charles Callison, Washington St.

6.7, 52%, 13%, 119.9, Malik Dime, Washington

6.4, 37%, 27%, 90.5, Renard Suggs, Washington St.

5.5, 48%, 18%, 94.7, Andre Spight, Arizona St.

3.6, 28%, 21%, 86.5, Derrien King, Washington St.

No one is great at projecting how JUCOs will do at the college level. I say this to note the curious case of Arizona's Kadeem Allen. Allen was viewed as one of the top shooting guards and a top scorer when he played JUCO ball. But in this year's early practices he became Arizona’s most consistent ball-handler and one of the team's best perimeter defenders. And suddenly despite the presence of elite prospects Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Justin Simon, Allen became Arizona’s starting PG. Allen is good, but for completely different reasons than what the initial JUCO scouting reports said.

The reason it is so hard to scout JUCO players is because the change in competition from JUCO basketball to D1 basketball is huge. But if you had to pick someone to find a quality JUCO recruit, you would probably want to choose Oregon's Dana Altman. Altman just has an eye for identifying players that have skills that will translate to the D1 level. And Chris Boucher is one of the only JUCOs to really become a star this year.

Of course, Lorenzo Bonam has been pretty productive too. You might not think these performances are that special, but Bonam and Boucher are more efficient and scoring at a higher rate than any of the JUCOs we saw in the Big 12 and SEC in Part 1 and 2 of this series.

Pac-12 D1 Transfers

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team, Last PPG, Last Team

15.2, 72%, 23%, 121.3, Ryan Anderson, Arizona, 14.3, Boston College

10.6, 58%, 24%, 105.4, Josh Fortune, Colorado, 8.4, Providence

8.4, 61%, 14%, 134.5, Mark Tollefsen, Arizona, 14.0, San Francisco

7.0, 33%, 23%, 114.2, Conor Clifford, Washington St., 2.5, UC Irvine

2.0, 30%, 11%, 111.4, Stephen Domingo, California, 0.5, Georgetown

Not counting Oregon's Dylan Ennis who ended up injured, Arizona's Ryan Anderson was the Pac-12 transfer expected to have the biggest impact. And Anderson has lived up to the hype. Overall, the D1 transfers in the Pac-12 have all performed about as expected.

Finally Playing

This group of players were technically on the roster last year, but they didn't play meaningful minutes:

PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg, Player, Team

14.7, 62%, 25%, 112.5, George King, Colorado

11.5, 73%, 20%, 114.0, Dorian Pickens, Stanford

11.4, 58%, 26%, 106.7, Kyle Kuzma, Utah

8.1, 59%, 18%, 106.1, Kodi Justice, Arizona St.

5.4, 37%, 21%, 97.1, Tory Miller, Colorado

4.6, 55%, 16%, 95.0, Christian Sanders, Stanford

2.8, 38%, 12%, 115.0, Kameron Rooks, California

2.3, 27%, 17%, 74.3, Malcolm Allen, Stanford

2.3, 28%, 13%, 103.3, Grant Verhoeven, Stanford

George King makes me happy to be a college basketball fan. King was a player who was lightly recruited out of high school. He played sparingly as an emergency reserve as a freshmen. Then he red-shirted last year. If he had scored 2 PPG this year, no one would have thought anything of it. Instead King has become a major scorer. And thanks to his emergence, Josh Scott is playing in meaningful games as a senior.

Returning Players

As noted in part 1 and 2, when interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and opponent defense. Oregon and Oregon St. have actually played a tougher slate of defenses so far this year than they face on the whole year last year, while Colorado and UCLA's schedule has been slightly easier. Meanwhile, Washington's games have had nearly 12 more possessions than their games had on the full year last year. Obviously that is going to inflate scoring totals.

ChOppDef, team, ChRawPace

2.7, Colorado, 6.1

2.6, UCLA, 4.9

2.2, Arizona, 2.9

1.8, Washington St., 4.1

1.6, USC, 5.6

1.6, Washington, 11.9

1.4, Utah, 5.5

1.2, Arizona St., 4.8

1.1, California, 1.4

0.8, Stanford, 1.7

-1.0, Oregon, 2.4

-1.1, Oregon St., 6.6

 

Here are the biggest changes in PPG:

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

8.5, 31%, 3%, 21.4, Thomas Welsh, UCLA, So, 12.3

8.3, 15%, 5%, 17.2, Tra Holder, Arizona St., So, 15.4

8.2, 16%, 4%, 13.3, Jakob Poeltl, Utah, So, 17.3

7.9, 27%, 5%, 11.1, Rosco Allen, Stanford, Sr, 15.1

7.4, 44%, 0%, 29.0, Willie Atwood, Arizona St., Sr, 10.3

7.1, 37%, 7%, -7.6, Michael Humphrey, Stanford, So, 10.2

6.1, 1%, 3%, 13.3, Isaac Hamilton, UCLA, Jr, 16.6

6.0, -3%, 4%, 10.6, Andrew Andrews, Washington, Sr, 21.0

5.9, 10%, 5%, 6.4, +Ike Iroegbu, Washington St., Jr, 14.9

5.9, 27%, 5%, -4.2, Marcus Allen, Stanford, Jr, 12.3

5.4, 24%, 4%, -7.8, Gabe York, Arizona, Sr, 14.5

5.2, 14%, 3%, 7.0, Dillon Brooks, Oregon, So, 16.6

4.9, 23%, 6%, -8.4, Dusan Ristic, Arizona, So, 8.2

4.3, 11%, 0%, 26.0, Elijah Stewart, USC, So, 10.8

4.0, 14%, 1%, 9.4, Que Johnson, Washington St., Jr, 10.1

3.9, 17%, 2%, 24.7, +Dominique Collier, Colorado, So, 8.6

Arizona St. senior Willie Atwood has had the biggest jump in efficiency in the conference. He has improved his shooting across the board. USC's Elijah Stewart is next as he has improved his shooting and his turnover rate. But Dominique Collier and Thomas Welsh's improvement in efficiency is arguably more impressive given that they are both using more possessions for their teams as well.

Stanford's Michael Humphrey, Stanford's Marcus Allen, Arizona's Gabe York, and Arizona's Dusan Ristic have something in common. They are all being more aggressive, but they have had to sacrifice some efficiency in the process.

 

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

3.6, 9%, 2%, 13.2, Julian Jacobs, USC, Jr, 12.1

2.9, 20%, 1%, 0.8, Josh Scott, Colorado, Sr, 17.4

2.9, -5%, 5%, 2.3, Gary Payton II, Oregon St., Sr, 16.3

2.5, 22%, 0%, 13.9, Casey Benson, Oregon, So, 6.0

2.1, 29%, -2%, -7.7, +Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Arizona, So, 5.0

2.0, -7%, 8%, -10.7, Jordan Bell, Oregon, So, 7.1

1.8, 10%, 0%, 0.7, Tony Parker, UCLA, Sr, 13.4

1.6, 8%, 1%, -0.6, +Tre'Shaun Fletcher, Colorado, Jr, 7.0

At SI, we viewed Iroegbu, Collier, Fletcher, and Jackson-Cartwright as breakout scorers, but George King has been a huge suprise for Colorado supplanting some of Collier and Fletcher's shots. And as noted earlier, Kadeem Allen became the Arizona starting PG taking playing time away from Jackson-Cartwright. Some of that is based on Allen, but it also appears that Parker Jackson-Cartwright wasn't totally ready for a larger role. Jackson-Cartwright's efficiency and usage are down this season.

The biggest increase in usage in the Pac-12 belongs to Oregon's Jordan Bell, but again, he's sacrificed efficiency with his increased aggressiveness.

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

1.6, 3%, 0%, 2.6, Bryce Alford, UCLA, Jr, 17.0

1.3, -2%, 1%, -1.5, Josh Hawkinson, Washington St., Jr, 16.0

1.2, 9%, -2%, 4.8, Jordan Loveridge, Utah, Sr, 11.2

1.2, -3%, 1%, 13.1, Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona, Sr, 10.5

0.7, 13%, -1%, -8.4, Junior Longrus, Washington St., Sr, 2.2

0.7, -1%, -4%, 19.1, Jordan McLaughlin, USC, So, 12.8

0.5, 4%, 0%, -1.7, Elgin Cook, Oregon, Sr, 13.5

0.4, 3%, 0%, -14.6, Isaiah Wright, Utah, So, 2.3

0.2, 4%, -1%, -6.1, Dwayne Benjamin, Oregon, Sr, 8.7

0.1, -7%, -2%, 15.0, Nikola Jovanovic, USC, Jr, 12.4

0.1, 1%, 0%, -8.2, Wesley Gordon, Colorado, Jr, 6.7

Bryce Alford and Josh Hawkinson may be close to their ceiling. They haven't shown any meaningful improvement from last year. That said, they are still plenty good.

 

ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss, ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG

-0.1, -1%, -3%, 13.5, Katin Reinhardt, USC, Jr, 12.4

-0.3, -8%, 0%, 1.0, Sam Singer, California, Jr, 4.2

-0.3, 10%, -5%, 4.1, Gerry Blakes, Arizona St., Sr, 10.9

-0.3, -4%, -1%, 5.6, Jordan Mathews, California, Jr, 13.2

-0.4, -13%, 0%, 15.7, Xavier Talton, Colorado, Sr, 3.8

-0.9, -15%, 0%, 6.0, Eric Jacobsen, Arizona St., Sr, 7.4

-0.9, -15%, -1%, 13.8, Olaf Schaftenaar, Oregon St., Sr, 6.9

-0.9, -5%, -3%, -17.4, Kingsley Okoroh, California, So, 1.1

-1.0, -8%, -2%, 12.2, Donaven Dorsey, Washington, So, 2.8

-1.0, -26%, 4%, 6.9, Malik Marquetti, USC, So, 2.3

-1.0, 7%, 0%, 1.2, Savon Goodman, Arizona St., Jr, 10.2

-1.1, 5%, 0%, -19.2, Brandon Taylor, Utah, Sr, 9.5

-1.3, -17%, 1%, 7.2, Chris Reyes, Utah, Jr, 3.0

-1.5, -4%, -1%, 0.3, Brekkott Chapman, Utah, So, 4.3

-1.6, -5%, -4%, 9.3, Tyrone Wallace, California, Sr, 15.4

-1.9, 15%, -4%, 2.7, Jabari Bird, California, Jr, 8.5

-1.9, -4%, -3%, -0.5, Dakarai Tucker, Utah, Sr, 5.2

-2.5, -17%, -3%, -1.0, Brett Boese, Washington St., Sr, 1.8

-2.8, -25%, -1%, 5.0, Darion Clark, USC, Jr, 2.8

-3.1, -21%, -6%, -17.9, Ny Redding, Washington St., So, 1.0

-3.2, -25%, -2%, 3.6, Langston Morris-Walker, Oregon St., Sr, 6.1

-4.3, -22%, -7%, 1.8, Malcolm Duvivier, Oregon St., Jr, 6.4

Ty Wallace and Jabari Bird have had to sacrifice possessions (sacrifice shots) to their talented freshmen teammates.

If you think these drops in minutes are significant, consider that three players UCLA's Noah Allen, USC's Malik Martin and USC's Srahinja Gavrilovic have essentially all fallen out of the rotation after being rotation players last year. USC's resurgence is based on a number of things. The freshmen have played well; players like Elijah Stewart have become more efficient. But one symptom of that is inefficient players are no longer being forced into playing time. A year ago Martin and Gavrilovic were needed for their size. That is no longer the case.