I also started this series to check in on our impact freshmen and breakout scorers lists from SI.com. For that reason, I wish I had time to show all the high major leagues we previewed at SI. But due to time constraints, I am going to wrap this up with the Big Ten. Part 6 of the series looks at every player in the Big Ten playing roughly 20% of is team's minutes when active.
Big Ten Freshmen
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team
15.9, 82%, 27%, 98.8, *Corey
Sanders, Rutgers
12.9, 54%, 29%, 115.9, *+Diamond
Stone, Maryland
12.3, 70%, 24%, 108.1, +Ethan
Happ, Wisconsin
12.1, 56%, 22%, 125.1, *+Thomas
Bryant, Indiana
10.7, 59%, 24%, 105.5,
Jordan Murphy, Minnesota
9.9, 70%, 25%, 94.6, *+JaQuan
Lyle, Ohio St.
9.8, 66%, 24%, 94.1, *+Caleb
Swanigan, Purdue
9.8, 59%, 19%, 103.7, *+Jalen
Coleman, Illinois
9.1, 50%, 19%, 127.4,
Dererk Pardon, Northwestern
9.0, 61%, 17%, 116.7,
Aaron Falzon, Northwestern
8.8, 55%, 20%, 113.7,
Michael Finke, Illinois
8.6, 56%, 22%, 104.5, *+Glynn
Watson, Nebraska
7.8, 45%, 19%, 117.6, *+Deyonta
Davis, Michigan St.
Players marked with a * were consensus Top 100 recruits. Players marked with a + were players we picked as instant impact freshmen at SI.com.
I am still kicking
myself about our SI Corey Sanders projection. The stats model loved Sanders to be
a major scorer in the preseason. He was Rutgers best player by far. But our SI
scouting said that Sanders was attempting to be a pass-first PG. And that might
have been true at first. But there is only so many times you can pass someone
the ball and watch them miss a wide open shot. At some point in the season, the
team just decided to give Sanders the ball and get out of the way, as seen by
his team freshman record 39 points in a recent game.
And even if the scouting
led us astray on Sanders, scouting has substantially improved the projections. Despite
the fact that he was just a 3-star prospect, Luke Winn's personal scouting said
that Ethan Happ was going to be a star. And my limited scouting moved
Minnesota's Jordan Murphy up in the preseason. Murphy's recruiting rank suggested
he would barely play, but I at least moved him up into Minnesota's Top 7. So
even though the scouting caused us to miss on Sanders, if you look across the
board at all the teams, 95% of the time scouting made our projection better. A few other notes:
-The big question for Indiana's
Thomas Bryant wasn't whether or not he would score. The question was whether or
not he could improve Indiana's defense. And he has delivered as Indiana's two
point defense has improved from 283rd nationally to 137th. Overall, Indiana's defense
has improved from 214th to 49th.
-A lot of people thought
this might be the year that Northwestern finally made the NCAA tournament, but
in a down year in the Big Ten, their performance isn't quite good enough. And
distressingly, a lot of points will likely graduate along with Tre Demps and
Alex Olah. But that's why Dererk Pardon's story is so awesome. His 28 point, 12
rebound performance soon after debuting mid-season bring a lot of hope for next
year.
-Illinois' Michael Finke
was a 3-star red-shirt player, the kind you might not expect that much from. In
fact, among Illinois forwards he had the 6th best statistical expectation when
I first ran the team's numbers this summer. But as three other big men left the
team or were injured, he moved up. Finke's development is one of the only
things that has gone right for Illinois this year.
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team
6.7, 54%, 17%, 96.3, Jonathan Jean Laurent, Rutgers
6.7, 45%, 25%, 85.9, Kevin Dorsey, Minnesota
5.7, 56%, 20%, 84.6, Josh Reaves, Penn St.
5.1, 37%, 15%, 124.9, Nicholas Baer, Iowa
4.9, 53%, 19%, 83.8,
Dupree McBrayer, Minnesota
4.9, 41%, 17%, 106.7,
Jack McVeigh, Nebraska
4.5, 41%, 14%, 121.2,
Michael Jacobson, Nebraska
4.2, 29%, 17%, 118.1,
Ogugua Anunoby, Indiana
4.1, 46%, 16%, 86.4, *Daniel
Giddens, Ohio St.
4.0, 31%, 16%, 106.5,
Aaron Jordan, Illinois
3.9, 41%, 14%, 113.2, *Matt
McQuaid, Michigan St.
3.8, 34%, 15%, 113.4,
Ryan Cline, Purdue
3.8, 34%, 17%, 98.9, *Ed
Morrow, Nebraska
3.5, 35%, 15%, 104.6,
Deividas Zemgulis, Penn St.
3.1, 28%, 18%, 93.4,
Charlie Thomas, Wisconsin
3.0, 35%, 15%, 90.9,
Khalil Iverson, Wisconsin
2.9, 33%, 17%, 88.5, *A.J.
Harris, Ohio St.
2.9, 22%, 19%, 100.4, *Victor
Wagner, Michigan
2.8, 24%, 13%, 128.2,
Ahmad Wagner, Iowa
2.8, 27%, 14%, 118.1,
Alex Illikainen, Wisconsin
2.0, 37%, 9%, 96.3,
Justin Goode, Rutgers
1.9, 25%, 12%, 111.3,
Kenny Goins, Michigan St.
1.8, 22%, 18%, 82.5,
Mickey Mitchell, Ohio St.
1.7, 22%, 17%, 70.5, *D.J.
Williams, Illinois
1.5, 20%, 11%, 102.5,
Juwan Morgan, Indiana
Four names I am not
listing above: Wisconsin's Brevin Pritzl, a Top 100 recruit forced to redshirt
due to injury; Ohio St.'s Austin Grandstaff, a Top 100 recruit who is
transferring; Penn St.'s Mike Watkins, a 4-star prospect who was not eligible,
and Rutger's Ibrahima Diallo, who played quite a bit early, but was injured.
Big Ten D3 Transfer
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team
12.1, 70%, 18%, 132.0,
Duncan Robinson, Michigan
There are not many players
that transition from D3 to D1, so I can't really show you comps to explain how
special Duncan Robinson's season has been. But there is no question he is very
unique. The experts were right that he is a lights out three point shooter. But
I'm not quite sure they were right about his ability to play in the paint.
Michigan's interior defense has been pretty poor this year and teams expose
Robinson inside when they can. I think Michigan views him as a stretch-four,
but I think he would be better off as a true-wing. Or perhaps he will be a
better interior defender and rebounder with another year of bulking up in the
weight room.
Big Ten JUCO
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team
2.1, 19%, 15%, 114.4,
Jaylen Brantley, Maryland
No debuting JUCOs have played a big role in the Big Ten this
year. Rutger's DeShawn Freeman and Iowa's Dale Jones might have made a bigger impact but they both
got hurt.
Big Ten D1 Transfers
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team, LastPPG, LastTeam
17.2, 72%, 24%, 123.3,
Andrew White, Nebraska, 2.6, Kansas
13.1, 65%, 24%, 116.7,
Robert Carter, Jr., Maryland, 11.4, Georgia Tech
10.9, 80%, 18%, 114.1,
Rasheed Sulaimon, Maryland, 7.5, Duke
9.7, 51%, 25%, 110.6,
Eron Harris, Michigan St., 17.2, West Virginia
7.9, 43%, 20%, 123.7,
Max Bielfeldt, Indiana, 5.1, Michigan
7.9, 52%, 18%, 107.4,
Omari Grier, Rutgers, 7.9, Bradley
6.5, 42%, 19%, 113.0,
Trevor Thompson, Ohio St., 5.0, Virginia Tech
5.3, 45%, 18%, 114.9,
Johnny Hill, Purdue, 9.6, UT Arlington
4.1, 33%, 20%, 96.3,
Joey van Zegeren, Northwestern, 9.8, Virginia Tech
3.5, 56%, 14%, 88.9,
Khalid Lewis, Illinois, 5.8, La Salle
1.8, 29%, 10%, 100.4,
Alex Austin, Illinois, 7.0, Eastern Illinois
Andrew
White was expected to be a major scorer for Nebraska, but he has done more than
that. He has become the efficient superstar Nebraska needed to have a top
flight offense again. (According to Kenpom.com, this is the best Nebraska
offense since 2004.) Unfortunately for Cornhusker fans the defense has fallen
off. The best news I can give is that Nebraska's two point defense has been
better than its three point defense and free throw defense. And two point
defense tends to have more predictive power going forward. (FYI: the same 2Pt/3Pt/FT
defense split holds true for Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Penn St.)
I saw
people in the preseason saying that Rasheed Sulaimon could average 15 to 20
PPG. And of course he could if he was the only good player on his team. The
problem is that on a good team, shots are at a premium. That is why my model
tries to account for the number of possessions available to each player.
Sulaimon has not been a statistical disappointment; he is just one part of an
offense with a lot of good players.I am not listing Mike Thorne from Illinois due to his injury, but the play of Illinois' two guard transfers makes me think the team really does miss Tracy Abrams. Khalid Lewis and Alex Austin are just not as versatile. The losses at forward and point-guard have clearly caused Illinois to drop from a bubble team to a team that is just hanging on.
Finally Playing
This group of players were technically on the roster last
year, but they didn't play meaningful minutes.
PPG, Min%, Poss%, ORtg,
Player, Team
10.2, 71%, 22%, 99.2,
Payton Banks, Penn St.
8.6, 57%, 22%, 102.1,
Vitto Brown, Wisconsin
7.5, 79%, 13%, 115.8,
Zak Showalter, Wisconsin
5.0, 50%, 14%, 102.9,
Bakary Konate, Minnesota
4.8, 44%, 16%, 104.6,
Julian Moore, Penn St.
4.3, 51%, 13%, 103.2,
Devin Foster, Penn St.
3.7, 34%, 17%, 106.1,
Javon Bess, Michigan St.
3.5, 19%, 24%, 105.2,
D.J. Wilson, Michigan
3.3, 26%, 14%, 112.4,
Brady Ellingson, Iowa
3.0, 27%, 17%, 107.1,
Gavin Skelly, Northwestern
3.0, 36%, 13%, 101.3,
Jordan Hill, Wisconsin
2.6, 18%, 20%, 111.1,
Alvin Ellis III, Michigan St.
2.4, 20%, 18%, 102.2,
Nick Fuller, Nebraska
2.3, 27%, 16%, 94.7,
Jake Hammond, Nebraska
1.9, 23%, 19%, 69.9,
Isaiah Washington, Penn St.
Banks and Brown are the
leading scorers in this group, but I'm not convinced either is playing well.
Banks misses way too many threes and Brown is neither the outside shooter nor
defensive rebounder that Wisconsin could really use.
Returning Players
Once again, when
interpreting changes in PPG, you should keep in mind the changes in pace and
opponent defense. Indiana's schedule has been easier defensively this year than
it was on the whole season last year. Meanwhile, Rutgers games have had over 6
more possessions than their games had on the full year last year. Obviously
that is going to inflate scoring totals.
ChOppDef, Team,
ChRawPace
3.4, Indiana, 3.2
2.6, Rutgers, 6.4
2.5, Michigan, 5.7
2.5, Minnesota, 0.2
2.4, Northwestern, 4.8
2.2, Wisconsin, 5.1
1.8, Michigan St., 4.5
1.8, Nebraska, 4.3
1.5, Purdue, 4.4
1.4, Iowa, 5.4
1.3, Illinois, 4.8
0.9, Penn St., 0.6
0.7, Ohio St., 2.2
0.6, Maryland, 2.5
Here are the biggest changes in PPG:
ChPPG, ChMin, ChPoss,
ChORtg, Player, Team, Class, CurrentPPG
8.4, 15%, 4%, 19.8,
Peter Jok, Iowa, Jr, 15.5
7.9, 52%, 1%, -6.4, +Keita
Bates-Diop, Ohio St., So, 11.7
7.5, 17%, 8%, 10.7, +Brandon
Taylor, Penn St., Sr, 16.6
6.0, 23%, 3%, 19.3, Tai
Webster, Nebraska, Jr, 10.0
6.0, -1%, 5%, 6.6,
Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa, Sr, 18.4
5.7, 17%, 5%, 7.0, Mike
Williams, Rutgers, So, 12.1
5.7, 3%, 4%, 12.2, Bryn
Forbes, Michigan St., Sr, 14.3
5.6, 11%, 3%, -0.1,
Kendrick Nunn, Illinois, Jr, 16.7
5.2, 22%, 3%, 31.2,
Dominique Uhl, Iowa, So, 7.3
4.7, 8%, 7%, -13.6,
Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin, Jr, 17.1
4.7, 14%, 3%, -11.4, +Bronson
Koenig, Wisconsin, Jr, 13.4
4.5, 11%, 3%, -3.1,
Malcolm Hill, Illinois, Jr, 18.9
4.4, 15%, 4%, -1.1, +Shep
Garner, Penn St., So, 13.6
4.4, 22%, 1%, 1.3,
Maverick Morgan, Illinois, Jr, 7.0
4.1, 22%, 2%, 6.9,
Anthony Clemmons, Iowa, Sr, 8.9
4.1, -2%, 4%, 9.6,
Denzel Valentine, Michigan St., Sr, 18.6
Players marked with a +
are players we projected as breakout scorers at SI.com. With DJ Newbill
graduating, Brandon Taylor seemed like a good bet to increase his workload and
he has. Taylor has increased his usage rate more than any other player in the
Big Ten. Nigel Hayes has the next biggest increase in usage, but unlike Taylor,
Hayes has seen his efficiency plummet now that he has a larger role in the
offense.
There are not a ton of
players in the Big Ten who have seen big improvements in efficiency (at least
relative to the other top 5 conferences). But most of the big improvements are
on Iowa. Dominique Uhl has had the biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten,
Adam Woodbury (next table) has had the third biggest jump in efficiency in the
Big Ten, Peter Jok has had the fifth biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten
along with a big jump in usage, and Jarrod Uthoff has seen his efficiency
improve slightly despite the third biggest jump in usage in the Big Ten. Even
Anthony Clemmons is passing better and finishing better around the rim.
Don't let anyone tell
you we should have seen this coming with the Hawkeyes because they have a
veteran team. Iowa had a veteran team last year and they didn't become elite.
The difference this year is that Iowa's players have put in the work and
improved across the board.
I am a little nervous
about Iowa's defense going forward. Their three point and free throw defense
looks a little unsustainable given that they are not a dominant team at
defending two point shots. But that is just my way of saying I am not sure Iowa
is the #1 team in the country (the current Kenpom.com rank). Because of massive
offensive improvements by multiple players, Iowa is miles better than their
preseason bubble status.
3.7, 26%, 0%, 4.5, D.J.
Foreman, Rutgers, So, 7.5
3.6, 16%, 4%, -4.8, +Nate
Mason, Minnesota, So, 13.4
3.5, 20%, 3%, -1.1, Mark
Donnal, Michigan, So, 7.0
3.5, 28%, 4%, -19.8,
Marc Loving, Ohio St., Jr, 13.0
3.4, 5%, 2%, 8.9, Bryant
McIntosh, Northwestern, So, 14.8
3.4, 26%, 0%, 40.9, P.J.
Thompson, Purdue, So, 5.8
2.8, 5%, 4%, 2.8, Matt
Costello, Michigan St., Sr, 9.8
2.6, -1%, 0%, 9.9, A.J.
Hammons, Purdue, Sr, 14.5
2.6, 1%, -1%, 19.9,
Isaac Haas, Purdue, So, 10.2
2.5, 26%, -1%, -8.8,
Charles Buggs, Minnesota, Jr, 6.1
2.4, 14%, 1%, -2.2, +Kam
Williams, Ohio St., So, 7.8
2.4, 16%, 1%, -6.3, +Jae'sean
Tate, Ohio St., So, 11.2
2.2, 10%, 0%, 0.6, Tre
Demps, Northwestern, Sr, 14.8
2.0, 11%, 0%, 12.3,
Scottie Lindsey, Northwestern, So, 6.4
2.0, 17%, -2%, 19.0,
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan, So, 6.5
1.9, 8%, -3%, 21.2, Adam
Woodbury, Iowa, Sr, 8.5
1.9, 13%, 2%, 16.7, Tum
Tum Nairn, Jr., Michigan St., So, 4.1
Other than Iowa, the
other big jumps in efficiency are concentrated on the Purdue Boilermakers. PJ
Thompson has seen the biggest jump in efficiency in the Big Ten. Thompson still
isn't consistent and he and Johnny Hill have split starts this year, but
Thompson's huge drop in turnover rate and improved shooting have been a great
asset for the team. And Isaac Haas has improved his free throw percentage from
55% to 69% allowing him to become an efficient player.
Meanwhile Ohio St.'s
Marc Loving has had the biggest drop in efficiency in the Big Ten. Loving has had
to take on a larger role in his team's offense and he has struggled.
1.7, 2%, 1%, 10.6, Joey
King, Minnesota, Sr, 11.4
1.6, 0%, 3%, -0.1, Vince
Edwards, Purdue, So, 10.4
1.2, -4%, 2%, 10.4,
Aubrey Dawkins, Michigan, So, 8.1
1.0, 10%, -1%, 9.5, Mike
Gesell, Iowa, Sr, 8.4
0.9, 3%, 0%, 10.2,
Derrick Walton, Jr., Michigan, Jr, 11.7
0.9, -2%, 2%, 0.6, Yogi
Ferrell, Indiana, Sr, 17.3
0.5, -7%, 1%, 12.1,
Benny Parker, Nebraska, Sr, 4.7
0.5, 0%, 2%, -8.9,
Donovon Jack, Penn St., Sr, 4.0
0.4, 8%, 2%, -8.4,
Nathan Taphorn, Northwestern, Jr, 4.5
0.4, 1%, 0%, 8.3, Jordan
Dickerson, Penn St., Sr, 3.0
0.3, -2%, 0%, 16.5,
Dakota Mathias, Purdue, So, 5.1
0.3, 10%, -1%, 1.1,
Bishop Daniels, Rutgers, Sr, 8.7
0.2, -12%, 1%, 7.5,
Shavon Shields, Nebraska, Sr, 15.7
0.0, 4%, 0%, -0.2,
Sanjay Lumpkin, Northwestern, Jr, 4.4
0.0, -1%, 1%, -9.7, Nick
Zeisloft, Indiana, Sr, 6.6
These tables do not
include Michigan's Caris LeVert, Indiana's James Blackmon, Illinois' Leron Black, and Michigan's Spike Albrecht. Injuries have kept all of these players
out of a significant number of games. LeVert and Blackmon were projected to be
stars and Black was one of our projected breakout players at SI.com, meaning
all three injuries were critical. The injury to Albrecht has been tempered by
Derrick Walton's big improvement in efficiency this year. Walton was really hampered
by injuries last year but he is back to being an efficient and effective PG this season.
I really thought heading
into the season that Penn St.'s front-court would be an asset, but it hasn't
been. First super-frosh Mike Watkins was declared ineligible. Meawnhile Donovan
Jack stopped making his free throws and started turning the ball over more
leading to the 9 point drop in efficiency you see here. But my biggest
disappointment is Penn St. senior Jordan Dickerson. A lot of big men are late
bloomers and the 7 footer seemed like he was making strides last year. It seemed
quite possible he would anchor the defense and provide some surprising offense
in his final season. The best I can say is that he has remained a solid
rim-protector and shot-blocker. But he has been too foul prone and he hasn't
been able to stay on the floor and take that next step.
-0.1, 6%, 1%, -12.3,
Collin Hartman, Indiana, Jr, 4.8
-0.3, -3%, 2%, -5.4,
Michal Cekovsky, Maryland, So, 2.3
-0.3, -2%, 1%, -5.9,
Troy Williams, Indiana, Jr, 12.8
-0.6, -2%, -2%, -10.0,
Damonte Dodd, Maryland, Jr, 3.4
-0.7, 4%, -2%, -6.9,
Jared Nickens, Maryland, So, 5.4
-0.8, 1%, 0%, -11.6,
Carlos Morris, Minnesota, Sr, 10.3
-0.9, -11%, 2%, -4.8,
Gavin Schilling, Michigan St., Jr, 4.2
-1.0, -7%, 0%, 3.9,
Marvin Clark Jr., Michigan St., So, 3.5
-1.1, -7%, 1%, -14.9,
Greg Lewis, Rutgers, Sr, 4.2
-1.1, -17%, -2%, 8.2,
Alexandru Olah, Northwestern, Sr, 10.6
-1.1, -6%, -1%, 9.0,
Robert Johnson, Indiana, So, 7.8
-1.3, 0%, -4%, -3.0,
Jaylon Tate, Illinois, Jr, 2.3
-1.5, -4%, 0%, 2.0, Melo
Trimble, Maryland, So, 14.8
-1.6, -16%, 0%, 3.6,
Kendall Stephens, Purdue, Jr, 7.2
-1.6, -9%, -3%, 1.0,
Rapheal Davis, Purdue, Sr, 9.1
-2.0, 2%, -6%, 2.3, Jake
Layman, Maryland, Sr, 10.5
-2.2, -12%, -1%, -11.3,
Ricky Doyle, Michigan, So, 4.0
-3.1, -10%, -2%, 3.5,
Zak Irvin, Michigan, Jr, 11.2
Maryland's Jake Layman has had to sacrifice a lot of shots
with the additions of Robert Carter and Rasheed Sulaimon. Layman has seen the
biggest drop in usage rate in the Big Ten.