I do not list a ranking if there are less than 3 data points.
RECR = 1999-2007, current school only, excludes 1st year at school, up to 9 years
RS = 2002/3-2006/7, last 5 years any school
TOUR = 1998-2007, last 10 years any school (average over tournament appearances)
WPA = Wins plus appearances
RECR = WPA earned in recruiting
RS = WPA earned in regular season through better seed
TOUR = WPA earned by exceeding (or not living up to) seed in the tournament
How many wins are expected for each seed? I calculate an expected value using data from past NCAA tournaments.
3.36 - 1
2.43 - 2
1.79 - 3
1.52 - 4
1.17 - 5
1.26 - 6
0.87 - 7
0.67 - 8
0.59 - 9
0.63 - 10
0.50 - 11
0.48 - 12
0.24 - 13
0.18 - 14
0.04 - 15
0.00 - 16
TOUR takes actual wins and subtracts off expected wins given seed. I average this for all years that the coach makes the NCAA tournament. If this number is positive, the coach has exceeded seed on average. If this number is negative, the coach has not lived up to seed on average.
The separation of wins earned in recruiting (RECR) and wins earned in the regular season (RS) is more complicated and is explained in the concept section.
Big East Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
Connecticut Jim Calhoun 0.76 2.15 0.78 3.69
Syracuse Jim Boeheim 0.78 1.41 0.35 2.53
Pittsburgh Jamie Dixon 0.42 2.13 -0.09 2.47
Georgetown John Thompson III 0.84 1.01 0.62 2.47
Louisville Rick Pitino 0.80 1.16 0.27 2.23
Villanova Jay Wright 0.81 1.12 -0.11 1.82
Marquette Tom Crean 0.34 1.00 -0.13 1.22
Notre Dame Mike Brey 0.58 0.33 -0.11 0.80
Providence Tim Welsh 0.14 0.32 -0.76 -0.29
St. John's Norm Roberts 0.26 -0.21
West Virginia Bob Huggins 1.28 -0.78
South Florida Stan Heath 0.48 0.41
DePaul Jerry Wainwright -0.07 0.07
Cincinnati Mick Cronin 0.26
Seton Hall Bobby Gonzalez 0.05
Rutgers Fred Hill
FYI: Jim Boeheim gets better recruits than Jamie Dixon. Lately, Dixon has done a better job at winning regular season games and earning a high seed. But Boeheim has had more tournament success. Rick Pitino's rank may seem a little low, but remember this doesn't go back to his days at Kentucky. Pitino has had only one deep tournament run since taking over at Louisville. A few years ago, John Thompson's profile would have looked like Mick Cronin's, but a Big East title and Final Four run can do a lot for you. Notice that Norm Robert's regular season ranking is negative. He's had some talent, albeit a small amount, but hasn't turned that talent into an NCAA bid yet.
Recent Hires: Bob Huggins is a proven winner, at least in the regular season.
Hot Seat: Tim Welsh takes his team to the tournament every few years but hasn't won a tournament game. Could a 4th straight year without an NCAA tournament appearance do him in?
Big 12 Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
Kansas Bill Self 1.38 2.20 -0.01 3.57
Texas Rick Barnes 0.85 2.19 -0.26 2.79
Baylor Scott Drew 0.47 -0.18
Missouri Mike Anderson 0.58 0.44
Iowa State Greg McDermott 0.59 -0.44
Nebraska Doc Sadler 0.25
Texas A&M Mark Turgeon 0.10
Oklahoma Jeff Capel III -0.06
Colorado Jeff Bzdelik
Oklahoma State Sean Sutton
Kansas State Frank Martin
Texas Tech Pat Knight
FYI: Scott Drew has a real shot to make the tournament and turn his regular season rating positive this year. His recruiting is nothing short of phenomenal given the situation he inherited at Baylor.
Recent Hires: Of the new coaches, some have proven themselves and won in the tournament before, like Mike Anderson, but many others have inherited their first major coaching job. Jeff Bzdelik has more experience, but he has only recently left the NBA and turned to college coaching.
Hot Seat: Bill Self’s tournament performance looks a little better when you go back 10 years, but he has yet to have a Final Four run at Kansas, and that’s the expectation.
ACC Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
North Carolina Roy Williams 1.31 2.61 0.26 4.18
Duke Mike Krzyzewski 1.42 2.66 -0.19 3.89
Georgia Tech Paul Hewitt 0.87 0.86 0.30 2.03
Maryland Gary Williams 0.58 0.87 0.48 1.93
Boston College Al Skinner 0.13 1.76 -0.24 1.64
Florida State Leonard Hamilton 0.75 -0.49 -0.40 -0.13
Virginia Tech Seth Greenberg 0.32 0.36
Clemson Oliver Purnell 0.22 0.28
Miami Frank Haith 0.35 -0.17
Virginia Dave Leitao 0.46
NC State Sidney Lowe
Wake Forest Dino Gaudio
FYI: Were it not for some recent tournament failures, Coach K would be the top rated coach. Leonard Hamilton has struggled to turn top recruits into victories (as discussed extensively in the spring.) On the other hand, Al Skinner doesn't get the top recruits but he still competes at the highest level in the ACC. Oliver Purnell is still living off the reputation of earning a #4 seed with Dayton, but if he doesn't make the tournament with Clemson this year, he could be in serious trouble.
Recent Hires: Compared to the Big 12, the ACC has very few new coaches. Dino Gaudio has some very talented young players and a great chance to prove himself in the coming years.
Hot Seat: This is a key year for Purnell, Haith, and Hamilton.
Big 10 Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
Ohio State Thad Matta 1.13 1.94 0.34 3.42
Michigan State Tom Izzo 0.86 1.22 0.70 2.78
Wisconsin Bo Ryan 0.49 2.09 0.10 2.68
Illinois Bruce Webber 0.34 1.89 0.41 2.64
Penn State Ed DeChellis 0.04 0.04
Northwestern Bill Carmody 0.00 -0.02
Minnesota Tubby Smith 2.38 0.32
Indiana Kelvin Sampson 1.86 -0.21
Michigan John Beilein 0.73 1.23
Purdue Matt Painter 0.90
Iowa Todd Lickliter 0.45
FYI: Tom Izzo has struggled a bit in the regular season in recent years with some very talented teams. This year he has a chance to move his regular season ranking back up.
Recent Hires: Five terrific hires have been made in the last few years. Tubby Smith was a huge upgrade for Minnesota. Kelvin Sampson's recruiting at Indiana has been outstanding so far. No recent coach has been better at exceeding seed in the NCAA tournament than John Beilein. Todd Lickliter has also been good in the tournament, but he has only made two appearances. And if this season is any indication, Matt Painter might be the best coach of the bunch.
Hot Seat: What exactly has Bill Carmody added to Northwestern? The team had more talent when he started.
Pac10 Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
UCLA Ben Howland 1.03 1.81 0.56 3.40
Washington Lorenzo Romar 0.61 1.31 -0.45 1.47
Stanford Trent Johnson 0.56 0.57 0.07 1.20
Oregon Ernie Kent 0.37 0.45 0.06 0.89
California Ben Braun 0.43 0.36 -0.37 0.42
Arizona State Herb Sendek 1.02 0.10
USC Tim Floyd
Washington State Tony Bennett
Arizona Kevin O'Neill
Oregon State Kevin Mouton
FYI: Ernie Kent saved his job with a great tournament run last season.
Recent Hires: Herb Sendek is a proven winner, but Tony Bennett proves that sometimes it is worth taking a chance on someone new. Tim Floyd is only in his 3rd year at USC after returning from the NBA, but the early returns have been terrific.
Hot Seat: Jay John is already gone as I predicted in last spring's column.
SEC Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
Florida Billy Donovan 1.09 2.27 0.70 4.07
Vanderbilt Kevin Stallings 0.33 0.59 0.63 1.56
Alabama Mark Gottfried 0.68 0.94 -0.19 1.43
Mississippi State Rick Stansbury 0.47 1.14 -0.75 0.86
Georgia Dennis Felton 0.34 -0.03 -0.34 -0.03
South Carolina Dave Odom 0.23 0.08
Auburn Jeff Lebo 0.32 -0.39
Tennessee Bruce Pearl 1.42 0.11
Kentucky Billy Gillispie 0.85 0.16
Arkansas John Pelphrey -0.25
Mississippi Andy Kennedy
Louisiana State Butch Pierre
FYI: If you want to argue that Donovan is the best coach in the country right now, I wouldn't disagree. Consider that in the last 9 years, Donovan has never earned worse than a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. Much of the rest of the SEC remains unsettled however. Stansbury has been inconsistent at Mississippi St. Dennis Felton was great at Western Kentucky but hasn't been able to make anything of the disaster Jim Harrick left behind. Jeff Lebo isn't making any progress. And Odom is retiring after failing to revive South Carolina.
Recent Hires: Bruce Pearl has lived up to his reputation. Billy Gillispie looked good on paper, but has struggled early at Kentucky.
Hot Seat: John Brady was just let go. There have been a shocking number of mid-season coaching changes this year.
Notable Non-BCS Coach Recr RS Tour Rating
Memphis CUSA John Calipari 0.74 1.69 -0.13 2.29
Gonzaga WCC Mark Few 0.24 2.04 -0.08 2.20
S. Illinois MVC Chris Lowery 0.03 1.67 0.04 1.73
Nevada WAC Mark Fox 0.00 1.55 -0.21 1.34
George Mason CAA Jim Larranaga 0.00 0.02 1.05 1.07
Saint Joe’s A10 Phil Martelli 0.05 0.94 -0.27 0.72
UNLV MWC Lon Kruger 0.25 0.27 0.15 0.66
Pacific BW Bob Thomason 0.00 0.41 0.20 0.62
George Wash. A10 Karl Hobbs 0.09 0.60 -0.22 0.47
Creighton MVC Dana Altman 0.06 0.81 -0.41 0.45
Utah State WAC Stew Morrill 0.00 0.46 -0.13 0.33
Valparaiso Hor Homer Drew 0.07 -0.05 0.29 0.30
Charlotte A10 Bobby Lutz 0.21 0.11 -0.36 -0.04
Xavier A10 Sean Miller 0.30 0.35
UAB CUSA Mike Davis 0.38 0.55
New Mexico MWC Steve Alford 0.53 -0.19
Wright State Hor Brad Brownell 0.52 -0.42
Wichita St. MVC Gregg Marshall 0.27 0.01
Temple A10 Fran Dunphy 0.30 -0.34
BowlingGreen MAC Louis Orr 0.51
Saint Louis A10 Rick Majerus 0.26
Many of these schools have better reputations than the lower tier BCS schools. For example, it is probably easier to recruit at UNLV than it is to recruit to Northwestern. Some of these coaches may move to a BCS gig eventually, but others like Dana Altman, aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. At the end of the year, I'll discuss some of the coaching vacancy candidates with less experience (such as Keno Davis.)