Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The Numbers

Time Frame:
I do not list a ranking if there are less than 3 data points.
RECR = 1999-2007, current school only, excludes 1st year at school, up to 9 years
RS = 2002/3-2006/7, last 5 years any school
TOUR = 1998-2007, last 10 years any school (average over tournament appearances)

WPA = Wins plus appearances
RECR = WPA earned in recruiting
RS = WPA earned in regular season through better seed
TOUR = WPA earned by exceeding (or not living up to) seed in the tournament

How many wins are expected for each seed? I calculate an expected value using data from past NCAA tournaments.

EW Seed
3.36 - 1
2.43 - 2
1.79 - 3
1.52 - 4
1.17 - 5
1.26 - 6
0.87 - 7
0.67 - 8
0.59 - 9
0.63 - 10
0.50 - 11
0.48 - 12
0.24 - 13
0.18 - 14
0.04 - 15
0.00 - 16

TOUR takes actual wins and subtracts off expected wins given seed. I average this for all years that the coach makes the NCAA tournament. If this number is positive, the coach has exceeded seed on average. If this number is negative, the coach has not lived up to seed on average.

The separation of wins earned in recruiting (RECR) and wins earned in the regular season (RS) is more complicated and is explained in the concept section.

Big East      Coach             Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
Connecticut   Jim Calhoun       0.76  2.15  0.78  3.69
Syracuse      Jim Boeheim       0.78  1.41  0.35  2.53
Pittsburgh    Jamie Dixon       0.42  2.13 -0.09  2.47
Georgetown    John Thompson III 0.84  1.01  0.62  2.47
Louisville    Rick Pitino       0.80  1.16  0.27  2.23
Villanova     Jay Wright        0.81  1.12 -0.11  1.82
Marquette     Tom Crean         0.34  1.00 -0.13  1.22
Notre Dame    Mike Brey         0.58  0.33 -0.11  0.80
Providence    Tim Welsh         0.14  0.32 -0.76 -0.29
St. John's    Norm Roberts      0.26 -0.21  
West Virginia Bob Huggins             1.28 -0.78 
South Florida Stan Heath              0.48  0.41 
DePaul        Jerry Wainwright       -0.07  0.07 
Cincinnati    Mick Cronin             0.26  
Seton Hall    Bobby Gonzalez          0.05  
Rutgers       Fred Hill    

FYI: Jim Boeheim gets better recruits than Jamie Dixon. Lately, Dixon has done a better job at winning regular season games and earning a high seed. But Boeheim has had more tournament success. Rick Pitino's rank may seem a little low, but remember this doesn't go back to his days at Kentucky. Pitino has had only one deep tournament run since taking over at Louisville. A few years ago, John Thompson's profile would have looked like Mick Cronin's, but a Big East title and Final Four run can do a lot for you. Notice that Norm Robert's regular season ranking is negative. He's had some talent, albeit a small amount, but hasn't turned that talent into an NCAA bid yet.

Recent Hires: Bob Huggins is a proven winner, at least in the regular season.

Hot Seat: Tim Welsh takes his team to the tournament every few years but hasn't won a tournament game. Could a 4th straight year without an NCAA tournament appearance do him in?

Big 12         Coach          Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
Kansas         Bill Self      1.38  2.20 -0.01  3.57
Texas          Rick Barnes    0.85  2.19 -0.26  2.79
Baylor         Scott Drew     0.47 -0.18  
Missouri       Mike Anderson        0.58  0.44 
Iowa State     Greg McDermott       0.59 -0.44 
Nebraska       Doc Sadler           0.25  
Texas A&M      Mark Turgeon         0.10  
Oklahoma       Jeff Capel III      -0.06  
Colorado       Jeff Bzdelik    
Oklahoma State Sean Sutton    
Kansas State   Frank Martin    
Texas Tech     Pat Knight    

FYI: Scott Drew has a real shot to make the tournament and turn his regular season rating positive this year. His recruiting is nothing short of phenomenal given the situation he inherited at Baylor.

Recent Hires: Of the new coaches, some have proven themselves and won in the tournament before, like Mike Anderson, but many others have inherited their first major coaching job. Jeff Bzdelik has more experience, but he has only recently left the NBA and turned to college coaching.

Hot Seat: Bill Self’s tournament performance looks a little better when you go back 10 years, but he has yet to have a Final Four run at Kansas, and that’s the expectation.

ACC            Coach            Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
North Carolina Roy Williams     1.31  2.61  0.26  4.18
Duke           Mike Krzyzewski  1.42  2.66 -0.19  3.89
Georgia Tech   Paul Hewitt      0.87  0.86  0.30  2.03
Maryland       Gary Williams    0.58  0.87  0.48  1.93
Boston College Al Skinner       0.13  1.76 -0.24  1.64
Florida State  Leonard Hamilton 0.75 -0.49 -0.40 -0.13
Virginia Tech  Seth Greenberg   0.32  0.36  
Clemson        Oliver Purnell   0.22  0.28  
Miami          Frank Haith      0.35 -0.17  
Virginia       Dave Leitao            0.46  
NC State       Sidney Lowe    
Wake Forest    Dino Gaudio    

FYI: Were it not for some recent tournament failures, Coach K would be the top rated coach. Leonard Hamilton has struggled to turn top recruits into victories (as discussed extensively in the spring.) On the other hand, Al Skinner doesn't get the top recruits but he still competes at the highest level in the ACC. Oliver Purnell is still living off the reputation of earning a #4 seed with Dayton, but if he doesn't make the tournament with Clemson this year, he could be in serious trouble.

Recent Hires: Compared to the Big 12, the ACC has very few new coaches. Dino Gaudio has some very talented young players and a great chance to prove himself in the coming years.

Hot Seat: This is a key year for Purnell, Haith, and Hamilton.

Big 10         Coach          Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
Ohio State     Thad Matta     1.13  1.94  0.34  3.42
Michigan State Tom Izzo       0.86  1.22  0.70  2.78
Wisconsin      Bo Ryan        0.49  2.09  0.10  2.68
Illinois       Bruce Webber   0.34  1.89  0.41  2.64
Penn State     Ed DeChellis   0.04  0.04  
Northwestern   Bill Carmody   0.00 -0.02  
Minnesota      Tubby Smith          2.38  0.32 
Indiana        Kelvin Sampson       1.86 -0.21 
Michigan       John Beilein         0.73  1.23 
Purdue         Matt Painter         0.90  
Iowa           Todd Lickliter       0.45  

FYI: Tom Izzo has struggled a bit in the regular season in recent years with some very talented teams. This year he has a chance to move his regular season ranking back up.

Recent Hires: Five terrific hires have been made in the last few years. Tubby Smith was a huge upgrade for Minnesota. Kelvin Sampson's recruiting at Indiana has been outstanding so far. No recent coach has been better at exceeding seed in the NCAA tournament than John Beilein. Todd Lickliter has also been good in the tournament, but he has only made two appearances. And if this season is any indication, Matt Painter might be the best coach of the bunch.

Hot Seat: What exactly has Bill Carmody added to Northwestern? The team had more talent when he started.

Pac10            Coach         Recr  RS  Tour  Rating
UCLA             Ben Howland   1.03 1.81  0.56  3.40
Washington       Lorenzo Romar 0.61 1.31 -0.45  1.47
Stanford         Trent Johnson 0.56 0.57  0.07  1.20
Oregon           Ernie Kent    0.37 0.45  0.06  0.89
California       Ben Braun     0.43 0.36 -0.37  0.42
Arizona State    Herb Sendek        1.02  0.10
USC              Tim Floyd
Washington State Tony Bennett    
Arizona          Kevin O'Neill    
Oregon State     Kevin Mouton    

FYI: Ernie Kent saved his job with a great tournament run last season.

Recent Hires: Herb Sendek is a proven winner, but Tony Bennett proves that sometimes it is worth taking a chance on someone new. Tim Floyd is only in his 3rd year at USC after returning from the NBA, but the early returns have been terrific.

Hot Seat: Jay John is already gone as I predicted in last spring's column.

SEC               Coach           Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
Florida           Billy Donovan   1.09  2.27  0.70  4.07
Vanderbilt        Kevin Stallings 0.33  0.59  0.63  1.56
Alabama           Mark Gottfried  0.68  0.94 -0.19  1.43
Mississippi State Rick Stansbury  0.47  1.14 -0.75  0.86
Georgia           Dennis Felton   0.34 -0.03 -0.34 -0.03
South Carolina    Dave Odom       0.23  0.08  
Auburn            Jeff Lebo       0.32 -0.39  
Tennessee         Bruce Pearl           1.42  0.11 
Kentucky          Billy Gillispie       0.85  0.16 
Arkansas          John Pelphrey        -0.25  
Mississippi       Andy Kennedy    
Louisiana State   Butch Pierre    

FYI: If you want to argue that Donovan is the best coach in the country right now, I wouldn't disagree. Consider that in the last 9 years, Donovan has never earned worse than a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. Much of the rest of the SEC remains unsettled however. Stansbury has been inconsistent at Mississippi St. Dennis Felton was great at Western Kentucky but hasn't been able to make anything of the disaster Jim Harrick left behind. Jeff Lebo isn't making any progress. And Odom is retiring after failing to revive South Carolina.

Recent Hires: Bruce Pearl has lived up to his reputation. Billy Gillispie looked good on paper, but has struggled early at Kentucky.

Hot Seat: John Brady was just let go. There have been a shocking number of mid-season coaching changes this year.

Notable  Non-BCS Coach          Recr  RS   Tour  Rating
Memphis     CUSA John Calipari  0.74  1.69 -0.13  2.29
Gonzaga      WCC Mark Few       0.24  2.04 -0.08  2.20
S. Illinois  MVC Chris Lowery   0.03  1.67  0.04  1.73
Nevada       WAC Mark Fox       0.00  1.55 -0.21  1.34
George Mason CAA Jim Larranaga  0.00  0.02  1.05  1.07
Saint Joe’s  A10 Phil Martelli  0.05  0.94 -0.27  0.72
UNLV         MWC Lon Kruger     0.25  0.27  0.15  0.66
Pacific       BW Bob Thomason   0.00  0.41  0.20  0.62
George Wash. A10 Karl Hobbs     0.09  0.60 -0.22  0.47
Creighton    MVC Dana Altman    0.06  0.81 -0.41  0.45
Utah State   WAC Stew Morrill   0.00  0.46 -0.13  0.33
Valparaiso   Hor Homer Drew     0.07 -0.05  0.29  0.30
Charlotte    A10 Bobby Lutz     0.21  0.11 -0.36 -0.04
Xavier       A10 Sean Miller    0.30  0.35  
UAB         CUSA Mike Davis           0.38  0.55 
New Mexico   MWC Steve Alford         0.53 -0.19 
Wright State Hor Brad Brownell        0.52 -0.42 
Wichita St.  MVC Gregg Marshall       0.27  0.01 
Temple       A10 Fran Dunphy          0.30 -0.34 
BowlingGreen MAC Louis Orr            0.51
Saint Louis  A10 Rick Majerus               0.26

Many of these schools have better reputations than the lower tier BCS schools. For example, it is probably easier to recruit at UNLV than it is to recruit to Northwestern. Some of these coaches may move to a BCS gig eventually, but others like Dana Altman, aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. At the end of the year, I'll discuss some of the coaching vacancy candidates with less experience (such as Keno Davis.)