Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Nitty Gritty Bubble Watch

When I make comments about the conference tournaments over the next few days, such as “Ohio St. is out of the field for good now,” here are the numbers that form the basis for my conclusions. Of course, you are entitled to reach different conclusions and that’s why I’m uploading the numbers instead of just telling you what I think.

In my tables, T50 is record vs RPI 1-50, N50 is record vs RPI 51-100, and BL are bad losses to RPI 100+. (I have adjusted team’s records to reflect Monday’s games, but I am still using Sunday’s RPI rank.) I also include the order of wins and losses in the last 11 games for teams that are still alive in their conference tournaments.

CW-L ACC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 UNC          9-1 10-1  0 WWLWWWWWWWW  23 15-0
13-3 Duke         6-3  9-1  0 WWWWLLWWWWL  65 11-3
10-6 Clemson      3-5  7-3  0 LWWLWWLWWLW 178  7-6

 9-7 VirginiaTech 0-6  5-3  3 WWWLLLWWWWL 133 6-10
 8-8 Miami FL     3-3  6-4  2 LLLWWWWLWWL 135  7-7

 8-8 Maryland     1-5  6-5  3 WWWWLWLLWLL  71  5-7
 7-9 Florida St.  4-5  4-7  1 LLLWLLWWWLW 123  5-9
 7-9 WakeForest   3-3  4-7  2 WLLWWWLLLLW 270 2-10

We all know that Maryland and Virginia Tech are missing wins against the RPI top 50, but it is worth noting that their records vs 50-100 aren’t so dominant as to make up for it.

Miami (FL) had the ideal order for an 8-8 bubble team. While they started 2-6 in conference, they finished 6-2. And thanks to some nice non-conference victories, they look solid. Still, I wouldn’t want to lose that first round ACC game.

Florida St.’s top 50 wins include a sweep of Miami, a win over UAB, and a win over Clemson. But unless Florida St. or Wake Forest can upset North Carolina in the quarterfinals, I don’t see either team making it in.

CW-L Big 12       T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
13-3 Texas       10-3  5-1  1 WWWWWWWWLWW  27  9-4
13-3 Kansas       6-2  6-1  0 LWWWLWLWWWW 152  9-3
10-6 Kansas St.   3-5  3-4  1 LWWLWLLLLWW  79  5-8
 9-7 Oklahoma     6-7  4-2  1 LLLWWWLLWWW  67  7-7
 9-7 Baylor       3-8  4-1  0 LWLLLLWWWLW 147  9-5
 8-8 Texas A&M    4-6  3-3  0 WWWWLLLWLWL 222  6-5

 7-9 Texas Tech   4-9  2-4  1 WLLWLWWLWLL  28 2-12
 7-9 Oklahoma St. 3-9  2-2  3 LLWLWWWWWLL 130 3-11
 7-9 Nebraska     3-6  3-2  3 WLWLLWWWLLW 312  3-8

Outside of Texas and Kansas, none of the “in-the-field” teams have played well down the stretch. For that reason, they would all be well served to win at least one game in the conference tournament.

CW-L Pac 10       T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
16-2 UCLA         9-2  8-0  1 WWWLWWWWWWW 104 12-1
13-5 Stanford     5-3  6-3  0 WWWWLWWWWLL 299  8-5
11-7 WashingtonSt 4-6  6-1  0 LLLWWWWLWLW 199 14-3
11-7 USC          4-7  7-2  1 LWWLLWWWWWW  97 10-5
 9-9 Oregon       4-8  3-2  2 LWLWWLLLWWW 159  6-9
 9-9 Arizona St.  5-6  2-3  2 LLWWLLWLWLW 306  6-7
8-10 Arizona      5-7  5-4  2 WLLWLLWLLWL   7  7-7

7-11 Washington  2-11  4-4  0 LLLWLWWLLWL 224  4-9
6-12 California   2-9  3-3  2 WWWLLWLLLLL 180  5-6

Thanks to some nice wins at home, Oregon now looks a little more solid.

Arizona St. has enough nice wins that they deserve to be in the tournament , but if they lose the opener to USC, they could still be in trouble. A loss would leave Arizona St. at 5-7 in the last 12 and with a NCSOS of 300+, and the committee would have two strong discussion points to argue to exclude them.

CW-L Big East     T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
15-3 Georgetown   6-4  4-0  0 WWWLWLWWWWW 127  9-4
14-4 Louisville   9-5  3-1  1 LWWWWWWWWWL  21  9-5
14-4 Notre Dame   6-5  3-1  0 WWWLWWWLWWW 274  7-6
13-5 Connecticut  7-4  2-3  0 WWWWWWLWWLW  54  8-6
11-7 Marquette    3-8  6-0  0 WLLWWWWWLWL 156  6-6
11-7 WestVirginia 3-7  4-1  1 LWLWWLWWLWW 136  9-7
10-8 Pittsburgh   4-6  4-1  2 WLWWLLLWWLW  86  6-7
 9-9 Villanova    4-6  4-2  3 LLWLWWWLLWW 168  7-8

 9-9 Syracuse     2-8  6-2  2 WWWLLWLLLWW  16  5-7

Syracuse is probably my last team out, but be careful about their NCSOS. It looks good but that’s mainly because they avoided the terrible teams. They’ve played one team with an RPI over 200. The loser of the Villanova/Syracuse Big East tournament game will be 6-6 in the last 12 and in serious trouble.

CW-L SEC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 Tennessee   11-3  3-0  0 WWWWWWWLWWW   3 12-3
12-4 Miss. St.    3-7  1-2  0 LLWWWLWWWLW 131  9-6
12-4 Kentucky     4-7  1-3  1 WWWLWWWWLWW  92  4-7
10-6 Vanderbilt   5-4  6-1  1 LWWWWWWWLWL  87  6-6
 9-7 Arkansas     4-5  3-1  4 WWWLLWLLWLW  88  5-9

 8-8 Florida      2-8  1-1  1 WLLWLLWWLLL 275  6-6
 7-9 Mississippi  5-4  2-0  5 LLWLLWLLWWW 122  7-7

I’m done arguing that Mississippi St. and Kentucky don’t have the resumes to make it in. Despite losing records vs the RPI top 100, they’ve both made it to 12 conference wins and that is still impressive no matter how you slice it.

Take a moment to compare the profiles of Florida and Syracuse. Syracuse is 6-2 vs RPI 50-100, while Florida is 1-1. The culprit is Florida’s weak NCSOS. I don’t see the Gators getting in without a deep run in the SEC tournament.

On the other hand, Ole Miss is an interesting case. Let’s say they beat Georgia and Kentucky and lose to Mississippi St. in the SEC semis. They’d be 7-5 in the last 12, they’d have a nice profile vs the Top 50 and Top 100, and if the committee was truly conference color blind, you’d have to say they have a chance. So why do I think they are going to lose to Georgia?

CW-L Big Ten      T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
16-2 Wisconsin    5-4  3-0  0 WWWLWWWWWWW  66 10-2
15-3 Purdue       5-4  1-0  3 WWWWWWLWWLW 256  8-6
14-4 Indiana      6-5  4-0  1 WWWLWWWWLWL  85  8-4
12-6 Michigan St. 5-5  3-0  2 WLWLLWWLWWL  45  7-7

10-8 Ohio St.     3-9  4-1  2 WLWLWLLLLWW  13  5-9

Ohio St. just won its two biggest games of the year, but you can’t overlook the 4 game losing streak that came before that. If they lose to Michigan St. and finish 5-7 in the last 12, they are out.

CW-L Atlantic 10  T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 Xavier       6-1  5-4  0 WWWWWWWWWLW  15 10-4

11-5 Temple       2-3  4-6  3 WLWWLWLWWWW  29  8-8
10-6 UMass        2-2  4-4  3 WLWLLWWWWWW  84 10-6

 9-7 Saint Joe’s  3-4  4-3  4 WWLLWLWLLWL 117 10-6
 9-7 Charlotte    2-3  5-3  6 LLWLLLWLWWW 100  5-9
 8-8 Dayton       2-3  7-2  4 WLWLLWLLWWW  41  6-6

St. Joe’s finished the regular season with 6 losses in the final 9 games and I can no longer project them in the field. But for a team playing on the first day of the A10 tournament, they actually got a very favorable draw.

Will Chris Wright return for Dayton? Could I have built him up anymore by this point? Will this be enough for Dayton to beat Xavier in the second round? Or will the Flyers lose to Rick Majerus in the first round? Hey, I don’t know if Dayton is really a bubble team or not anymore, but at least there is something to watch for.

CW-L MVC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
15-3 Drake        4-1  4-1  2    9-3      132 13-3
13-5 Illinois St. 0-5  5-0  4    9-3      114  9-8

11-7 S. Illinois  4-6  2-2  6    8-4        4 5-11
10-8 Creighton    0-6  4-1  3    7-5      103  6-8

Illinois St. has zero RPI top 50 wins now that Southern Illinois and Creighton have fallen outside the top 50. Illinois St. was also blown out by Drake in the MVC final. In other words, the Redbirds should be scoreboard watching all week.

So what does history look like for teams with 0 top 50 wins? Well, the record isn’t good for teams from the major conferences. But for teams from the best of the non-BCS conferences, things look a little better. See Air Force in 2006 and UAB in 2005. Since the MVC had the 8th best conference RPI, I think 13 conference wins will get Illinois St. in, but it will be close.

Southern Illinois might look good if you just look at these numbers, but at 17-14 overall, they aren’t getting in.

CW-L MWC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 BYU          2-3  3-2  1 WWWWWWLWWWW 138  9-6
12-4 UNLV         1-3  6-2  2 WWLWWLWWWLW  56  6-5

11-5 New Mexico   1-4  3-1  2 LLWWWWWWLWW 264  8-5
 9-7 San Diego St 1-5  3-2  4 LWWLLLWWLWL 197  8-8

Steve Alford thinks New Mexico is in. The problem is with a weak NCSOS his team’s profile isn’t as strong as he thinks. New Mexico may need to beat UNLV in the conference tournament (in Las Vegas) to earn a bid.

CW-L CUSA         T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
16-0 Memphis      8-1  4-0  0 WWWWWWLWWWW   9 13-0

12-4 UAB          1-2  1-2  5 WLWWLWWWWWL 151  8-8

Joe Lunardi (among others) has been pretty high on UAB, but I think they have no chance because the quality wins just aren’t there. It is one thing to have only one win against the RPI top 50, but having only two wins against the RPI top 100 is killer.

CW-L Horizon      T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
16-2 Butler       1-1  8-2  0 WWWWWWWLWWW 105 15-2

12-6 Cleveland St 1-3  5-2  6 LLLWWWLWWWW  46  9-8

Will Cleveland St. take a bubble slot away by defeating Butler on Tuesday?

CW-L MAC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
13-3 Kent St.     2-2  7-1  3 WLWWWWWWLWW  63  9-6


I think Kent St. has locked up an at-large berth, but it is never good to lose early in the conference tournament.

CW-L CAA          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
15-3 VCU          0-2  3-1  4    9-3       80 12-6
12-6 George Mason 2-1  2-2  7    8-4       37 10-9

George Mason got in the old fashioned way; they won the CAA tournament. I’m sad to say I no longer see a scenario where VCU makes the field.

CW-L WCC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
13-1 Gonzaga      3-5  4-2  0   10-2       12 12-6
12-2 St. Mary's   2-3  6-3  0    8-4       31 10-5
11-3 San Diego    4-6  0-4  3   10-2       32  8-8


San Diego wins the auto bid to make the WCC a 3-bid league.

CW-L Sun Belt     T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
16-2 S. Alabama   3-2  1-1  3    9-3       75  9-5
16-2 WKU          0-4  1-1  1 WWWWWLWWWWW  99 12-5

11-7 Mid. Tenn.   2-5  1-3  6 WWWLWLWLWWW   1  5-8

I’ve still got South Alabama in the field, but I may re-evaluate that in a few days. Remember, South Alabama now has 3 losses to teams outside the top 100 in the final 12. Western Kentucky is now in position to take the automatic bid.

Auto CW-L Team    T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
BSth 10-4 Winthrp 1-4  2-0  7    8-4       38 10-8
MAAC 13-5 Siena   1-2  0-2  6    9-3       19  9-6
Ivy  14-0 Cornell 0-2  1-1  2 WWWWWWWWWW  190 10-4
OVC  16-4 A. Peay 0-2  2-3  5   11-1       10 10-9
ASun 14-2 Belmont 0-1  0-3  4   12-0       72 14-7
SC   20-0 Davidsn 0-3  0-2  1   12-0        8 14-4


Ten other one bid conferences will join these to round out the field.