Here’s how I see it. Feel free to look at the numbers and draw a different conclusion. I list the order of the last 11 games for teams that are still alive in their conference tournaments.
CW-L In Conf T50 N50 BL Final 12 NCSOS RN
12-2 St. Mary’s WCC 2-3 5-3 0 8-4 32 10-5
11-7 W. Virginia BE 3-8 2-1 1 8-4 140 11-8
12-4 Miss. St. SEC 3-7 1-2 0 LWWWLWWWLWW 124 10-6
12-4 Kentucky SEC 4-6 1-4 1 WWWLWWWWLWW 98 4-7
9-7 Baylor B12 3-8 4-1 1 5-7 131 9-6
10-6 Kansas St. B12 3-6 3-4 1 5-7 88 5-9
12-4 UNLV MWC 1-3 8-3 1 LWWLWWWLWWW 57 6-5
16-2 S. Alabama SB 3-2 1-1 3 9-3 68 9-5
13-5 Ill. St. MVC 2-5 3-0 4 9-3 118 9-8
9-7 St. Joe’s A10 4-4 4-3 4 LWLWLLWLWWW 117 13-6
11-5 Temple A10 3-4 4-4 4 WWLWLWWWWWW 30 10-8
9-9 Oregon P10 4-9 4-2 2 6-6 168 6-10
11-5 New Mexico MWC 1-4 5-2 2 8-4 266 8-6
9-9 Villanova BE 3-7 4-1 4 7-5 157 8-9
CW-L Out Conf T50 N50 BL Final 12 NCSOS RN
8-10 Arizona P10 5-8 5-4 2 4-8 6 8-8
9-9 Ariz. St. P10 5-7 2-3 2 5-7 304 6-8
10-6 UMass A10 1-4 5-3 3 8-4 93 10-7
9-7 V. Tech ACC 1-6 5-2 4 WWLLLWWWWLW 137 7-10
CW-L No Chance Conf T50 N50 BL Final 12 NCSOS RN
9-9 Syracuse BE 3-8 3-3 2 6-6 21 5-8
10-8 Ohio St. B10 2-10 5-1 2 5-7 14 5-10
8-8 Florida SEC 2-8 1-1 2 4-8 273 6-7
15-3 VCU CAA 0-2 3-1 4 9-3 89 12-6
CW-L If Only Conf T50 N50 BL Final 12 NCSOS RN
8-8 Dayton A10 3-4 6-2 4 6-6 31 7-7
7-9 Miss. SEC 5-4 2-0 6 5-7 130 7-8
Let’s start with the “in” teams. West Virginia really needed that win against UConn to feel comfortable, because the RPI top 100 wins just aren’t there. (To be fair, there are quite a few Big East teams just outside the Top 100.)
If the committee were truly conference color blind, you could see Mississippi St. or Kentucky getting left out. But the 12-4 conference record is too much to ignore.
Baylor and Kansas St. have not played well down the stretch. And Kansas St. hasn’t been good in road/neutral games. Yes, I have them in, but not as easily as most people.
UNLV just has a slew of top 100 wins, and they might win the MWC title anyhow. South Alabama and Illinois St. also have enough wins, but barely.
Real Questions
Then things get interesting. I think St. Joe’s and Temple would be in today, but if Temple loses, will they hold that slot?
The real question is how to treat the Pac10. There is no question that the Pac10 teams have more quality wins than anyone on the list. But there is also no question that the Pac10 bubble teams have not been winning many games lately.
I think most people I have spoken to feel like Arizona St. is the best team of the three, Oregon next, and Arizona at the bottom. (Some people also have Oregon at the bottom.) But does Arizona St., with a horrible NCSOS, get in over an Arizona team that goes out and plays tough teams every year? After all, the non-conference schedule has given Arizona more top 100 wins than Arizona St. This will be a critical decision for the committee. Given that Arizona finished 4-8 in the final 12, I think it could be very difficult to build a consensus to include them. So I’m projecting Arizona and Arizona St. out, but I don’t feel good about it.
I changed my mind on New Mexico. Utah finished in the top 100, giving them two more top 100 wins, and the win against UTEP also ended up looking better than I anticipated. So I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, but I won’t be surprised if they get left out.
Similarly, Villanova could easily be out, but they didn’t collapse like Arizona and Arizona St., so I have them in for now.
Sorry Charlie
It looks like UMass got squeezed out with Temple and St. Joe’s winning, but they played much better down the stretch than some of the other bubble teams.
Virginia Tech can still earn their way in, but I think they have to beat UNC.
I don’t see Syracuse getting in over Villanova at this point, so I think they are done. Ohio St. may have picked up two nice wins in the last week, but they also finished 5-7. I don’t see Florida or Ohio St. having a chance thanks to the finishing stretch. VCU just doesn’t have the RPI top 50 wins. And Dayton and Ole Miss had to show a little more in the conference tournaments to overcome their poor conference records.
Three Things to Fear
Besides Virginia Tech earning a slot, Villanova and New Mexico have two more things to fear. The Minnesota/Illinois winner could steal a bid by winning on Sunday. And Akron could steal a bid by upsetting Kent St.