Monday, March 3, 2008

Nitty Gritty (Through Sunday)

Before I can start discussing what to watch for in the conference tournaments, it helps to have a baseline of where teams stand. Today I’m uploading my version of the nitty-gritty report.

In my tables, T50 is record vs RPI 1-50, N50 is record vs RPI 51-100, and BL are bad losses to RPI 100+ . The one nice feature about my tables is that I include the order of wins and losses in the Final 12. I start with the 11th to last regular season game since each team should play at least one conference tournament game. Let’s take Creighton as an example:

CW-L MVC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN              
10-8 Creighton    1-6  3-1  2 LLWWWLLWWLW 114  5-7


If Creighton loses their first MVC tournament game, they’ll finish 6-6 in the last 12. (Hardly anything to write home about, especially since the NIT crunches the numbers pretty heavily these days too.) On the other hand, if Creighton wins its first MVC tournament game, you can cross that first L off the beginning. And if Creighton makes it to the MVC final, you can cross off the first two L’s.

My projected tournament teams are listed in green, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

CW-L ACC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
12-2 UNC          6-1 10-1  0 WWLWWWWWW    25 14-0
12-2 Duke         6-2  9-1  0 WWWWLLWWW    65 10-3
 9-5 Clemson      3-5  6-2  0 LWWLWWLWW   171  7-5

 8-6 VirginiaTech 0-5  4-3  3 WWWLLLWWW   135  6-9
 8-7 Maryland     1-6  6-4  2 WWWWLWLLWL   78  5-6
 7-7 Miami(FL)    4-3  5-3  2 LLLWWWWLW   148  7-6

 6-8 WakeForest   3-3  3-6  2 WLLWWWLLL   270  2-9
 6-8 FloridaSt    2-4  5-7  1 LLLWLLWWW   107  5-8

How weak is the bubble? I have to project Maryland as “in” despite only one RPI top 50 win. But at 0-5 vs the RPI top 50, Virginia Tech is out.

Miami has some quality non-conference wins to supplement its resume. Wake Forest has a losing record vs the RPI top 100, two bad losses, a horrible NCSOS, 3 straight losses, and most importantly, a terrible road record. They aren’t in right now despite the nice win over Duke.

CW-L Big 12       T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
11-3 Texas       11-4  2-1  0 WWWWWWWWL    24  9-4
11-3 Kansas       5-2  5-1  0 LWWWLWLWW   150  8-3
 8-6 Baylor       4-7  2-1  0 LWLLLLWWW   183  8-5
 8-6 Kansas St    3-6  3-3  1 LWWLWLLLL    82  4-8
 7-7 Oklahoma     8-7  1-1  2 LLLWWWLLW    73  6-7
 7-7 TexasA&M     3-6  4-1  1 WWWWLLLWL   225  5-5

 7-7 Texas Tech   4-7  3-3  2 WLLWLWWLW    27 2-11
 7-7 Oklahoma St  4-8  1-1  3 LLWLWWWWW   127 3-10
 6-8 Nebraska     4-6  3-2  2 WLWLLWWWL   327  3-7

The Big 12 conference currently has seven teams in the RPI Top 50, but that probably won’t last. As some of the teams fall out of the Top 50, the quality wins will become scarcer. Having said that, I would not argue with anyone who wanted to put seven or even eight Big 12 teams in the field right today. I’m leaving Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. out because the road records are so poor.

I know Kansas St. seems like a lock for the tournament, but are they? Compare Oklahoma St. and Kansas St.’s profile. They both have poor road records, they basically have equivalent top 100 records. The difference is that Oklahoma St. has more bad losses, but I think that is easily offset by the fact that the Cowboys are getting hot. Oklahoma St. has won six of the last seven, while Kansas St. is on a 4 game losing streak and has already lost six of the last 12. As hard as it is to imagine, the Wildcats still have some work left to do.

CW-L Pac 10       T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 UCLA         8-2  7-0  1 WWWLWWWWW   105 12-1
13-3 Stanford     6-1  5-3  0 WWWWLWWWW   296  8-3
10-7 WashingtonSt 4-6  7-1  0 LLLWWWWLWL  214 14-3
 9-7 USC          4-7  4-2  1 LWWLLWWWW   101 10-5
 8-8 ArizonaSt    5-6  2-1  3 LLWWLLWLW   306  5-6
 7-9 Arizona      5-7  5-3  2 WLLWLLWLL     7  6-6
 7-9 Oregon       3-8  2-1  3 LWLWWLLLW   168  6-9

7-10 Washington   2-9  4-5  0 LLLWLWWLLW  224  4-8
6-10 California   2-7  4-3  2 WWWLLWLLL   189  5-4

It looks like California has finally played their way out of contention. Maybe they’ll upset UCLA and change my mind, but things don’t look good right now. And while Arizona can rely on some nice non-conference wins to supplement its resume, Oregon is dangerously close to being left out.

CW-L Big East     T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-3 Louisville   7-4  5-2  0 LWWWWWWWWW   22  9-4
14-3 Georgetown   4-3  5-1  0 WWWLWLWWWW  149  9-4
12-4 Connecticut  6-4  4-2  0 WWWWWWLWW    56  8-5
12-4 NotreDame    5-5  5-1  0 WWWLWWWLW   280  6-6
11-6 Marquette    3-7  7-0  0 WLLWWWWWL    98  6-5
 9-7 Pittsburgh   3-5  6-2  1 WLWWLLLWW    93  6-6
 9-7 WestVirginia 1-7  5-2  0 LWLWWLWWL   158  8-7

 8-8 Cincinnati   3-8  3-5  2 LWLWWWLLL    31  3-9
 7-9 Villanova    3-5  4-4  2 LLWLWWWLL   169  6-8
 7-9 Syracuse     1-7  5-4  1 WWWLLWLLL    20  4-7
 7-9 SetonHall    1-8  2-2  2 WLLLLLWWL   187  6-8

Villanova finishes with South Florida and Providence. (Before you assume that Villanova will win at Providence, remember that this is Providence’s Senior Day and the Friars may need that win for a top 12 finish and a chance to play in the Big East tournament.) If Villanova can win both games and get back to .500, the overall profile should be good enough. But if they lose one, the losing conference record and poor last 12 would give the committee plenty to discuss.

CW-L SEC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
12-2 Tennessee    9-2  4-1  0 WWWWWWWLW     4 11-3
11-3 Miss St      2-7  3-1  0 LLWWWLWWW   141  9-5

10-4 Kentucky     4-6  0-3  2 WWWLWWWWL    90  3-7
 9-5 Vanderbilt   3-3  7-2  0 LWWWWWWWL    99  6-5
 8-6 Arkansas     5-3  3-2  4 WWWLLWLLW    92  5-8

 8-6 Florida      1-5  2-2  1 WLLWLLWWL   281  6-5
 5-9 Mississippi  4-3  2-1  5 LLWLLWLLW   156  6-7

I feel a little guilty leaving Kentucky out when every indicator is that the team has turned the season around. But the Patrick Patterson injury is devastating, and the committee has to take into account how Kentucky played earlier in the year without Patterson on the floor.

Florida is probably good enough to be a tournament team, but with only 3 RPI top 100 wins, they haven’t shown anything yet. Meanwhile, Ole Miss threw away an incredible non-conference profile with a terrible run in the SEC.

CW-L Big 10       T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
14-2 Wisconsin    4-4  3-0  0 WWWLWWWWW    61  9-2
14-2 Purdue       4-3  2-1  2 WWWWWWLWW   244  7-5
13-3 Indiana      4-5  5-0  0 WWWLWWWWL    77  8-3
11-5 Michigan St  4-4  6-0  2 WLWLLWWLW    40  6-6

 8-8 Ohio St      0-9  5-1  2 WLWLWLLLL    13  5-9

0-9 vs the RPI top 50. 4 straight losses. The numbers speak for themselves.

CW-L A10          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
13-1 Xavier       7-1  5-3  0 WWWWWWWWW    16 10-3
 9-5 Temple       2-3  4-6  3 WLWWLWLWW    26  7-8
 8-6 UMass        1-2  5-4  3 WLWLLWWWW    86  9-6
 8-6 Saint Joes   2-3  4-3  4 WWLLWLWLL   133 10-5

 7-7 Charlotte    3-3  3-3  6 LLWLLLWLW    96  4-9
 7-8 RhodeIsland  1-4  3-2  3 WWLWLLLLLW  191 10-6
 6-8 Dayton       2-3  5-2  4 WLWLLWLLW    45  5-6

Umass is starting to play better and they hold a win over Syracuse so I put them in. But St. Joe’s swept UMass and beat Villanova who I have in the field, so they have to be in. And Temple just beat St. Joe’s. Oh, the vicious cycle. I’m sort of embarrassed to project four A10 teams in the field right now. Feel free to take one of these bids away and give it to Texas Tech or Kentucky.

Charlotte, Rhode Island, and Dayton have all thrown away once promising seasons. An interesting note about Dayton: Let’s say Chris Wright does return in time for the A10 tournament. Then let’s say Dayton knocks off Xavier, but loses in the A10 title game. Should the committee take into consideration that Dayton was clearly a different team with Wright in the lineup? After all, they beat Louisville and Pittsburgh with Wright playing a significant role. The answer is probably yes, but if the answer is yes, should the committee also lessen the importance of regular season wins over Dayton? For example, Xavier (twice), UMass, and Rhode Island have all padded their RPI top 50 wins by playing a weaker Flyer team. Should they really get full credit? Who has UMass really beaten if I throw out Dayton?

CW-L MVC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
15-3 Drake        6-2  1-1  1 WWWWWLWLWLW 117 10-3
13-5 Illinois St  4-4  3-1  3 WLWLWWLWWWW 109  7-7

11-7 S. Illinois  5-7  3-1  5 WWLWLWWWWWL   3 5-10
10-8 Creighton    1-6  3-1  2 LLWWWLLWWLW 114  5-7

An 8-2 showing in the bracket-busters gave the conference’s RPI numbers one last boost and it should mean that the Valley gets two bids even if Drake wins Arch Madness.

Southern Illinois has 5 RPI top 50 wins, but the numbers aren’t quite as impressive when you consider that those wins include Western Kentucky and Creighton who probably aren’t in the NCAA tournament field right now. Still Drake, St. Mary’s, and Mississippi St. are solid wins.

CW-L MWC          T50  N50 BL Final 12   NCSOS  RN
12-2 BrighamYoung 2-3  3-3  0 WWWWWWLWW   131  8-6
11-3 UNLV         1-3  5-1  2 WWLWWLWWW    55  6-4

 9-5 NewMexico    1-4  1-1  2 LLWWWWWWL   261  7-5
 9-6 SanDiegoSt   1-5  2-2  3 LWWLLLWWLW  182  8-7

New Mexico has an amazing Pomeroy rating, but they may need to win the MWC tournament to make it to the big dance.

CW-L CUSA         T50  N50 BL Final 12  NCSOS  RN
14-0 Memphis      6-1  6-0 0 WWWWWWLWW     9 12-0

11-3 UAB          0-1  3-2 5 WLWWLWWWW   143  8-7

So why do all those experts have UAB in the bracket? Because of one close loss to Memphis? I just don’t get it.

CW-L WCC          T50  N50 BL Final 12  NCSOS  RN
12-1 Gonzaga      3-6  2-0 0 LWWLWWWWWW   11 11-5
11-2 St Mary's    2-4  5-0 1 LWWWWWWLWL   30  9-4


St. Mary’s has been ranked, but Gonzaga is going to be the WCC champion again.

There are also 13 one-bid conferences that I’m not going to list here and I project the following 7 teams to get the only bid for their conference:

Conf CW-L WCC     T50  N50 BL Final 12  NCSOS  RN
Horz 16-2 Butler  2-1  6-2 0 WWWWWWWWLWW 102 15-2
MAC  11-3 Kent St 2-2  5-1 3 WLWWWWWWL    68  8-6
SB   16-2 S Alab. 3-2  0-1 2 WLWWWLWWWWW  81  9-5
CAA  15-3 VCU     0-2  4-1 3 WLWWWWLWWWW  79 11-5
Slnd 11-3 SFA     1-1  1-1 2 WWWWWWWWL   289 10-3
WAC  12-3 BoiseSt 1-1  2-2 4 WWWLWWWLWW  222 11-3
SC   20-0 Davidsn 0-3  0-2 1 WWWWWWWWWWW   8 11-4


These conferences could also get two bids if the favorite loses, but only Butler and Kent St. can say that with any degree of comfort.

For a long time, I didn't think the Sun Belt had any chance at an at large bid. Only two Sun Belt teams are in the top 100 which means quality wins are hard to find. Co-regular season champion Western Kentucky has 0 wins against the RPI top 100 and no legitimate shot at an at-large berth. But since South Alabama swept Western Kentucky and beat Mississippi St., they at least have a chance. But is a 1-3 record against the major conferences enough?

VCU has been dominant again in the CAA, but the league didn’t pick up the same number of BCS wins as last year. VCU probably needs to win the conference tournament for Eric Maynor to get another shot at the Big Dance. Stephen F. Austin has a nice overall record, but a NCSOS of 289 isn’t going to impress the committee. The WAC is having its worst season since the MWC/WAC split, and is not legitimately in the at large discussion.

Finally, Davidson has a sparkling 20-0 conference record, and there have been plenty of articles written about how they deserve to go to the Big Dance. But I’m fairly confident that the 0-3 record against Charlotte, NC State, and Western Michigan is going to prevent them from getting an at large bid.

Of these leagues, the Horizon and CAA once had a chance to earn two bids even if the favored team won the tournament. But thanks to a poor finish for George Mason, and Wright St.’s disappointing last three games, that is no longer likely.

Eleven days ago, Wright St. had an eleven game win streak and a legitimate shot to earn an at large bid by beating Illinois St and Butler. Instead, they lost both games, lost to Valparaiso, lost the Horizon league tie-breaker to Cleveland St., and now they have to play on the first night of the Horizon tournament. As is, Butler is the Horizon’s only legitimate at large candidate.