Sunday, March 28, 2010

And now those of us who picked Kentucky look silly too

Under-rated: Home Depot gift cards. I had no idea how cool these things were until I owned a townhouse. There’s nothing fun about spending $30 on a garden hose or a can of paint, but these things help. Also amusing: the apron-shaped gift card holder.

Over-rated: U-shaped staircases. I like the flow of the staircase, but these things are impossible to paint. What is the wall? What is the ceiling? Why are there 37 separate sections? I spend most of Sunday night taping one, and I haven’t even started painting yet.

Under-rated: Butler’s defense. You mean all you had to do to shut down Jacob Pullen was trap him coming off a screen until the initial defender could catch back up? Crazy.

Over-rated: Matt Howard picking up his 2nd foul. You knew it was inevitable. Kansas St. draws fouls and Matt Howard loves to pick them up. Early in the season, it spelled disaster as Howard spent every big game on the bench. But somewhere along the way, the rest of his teammates learned to play without him.

Under-rated: A curl screen at the top of the free throw line. It seemed like West Virginia ran this play over and over in the second half. Kentucky had no answer for the barrage of late game lay-ups.

Over-rated: First half two pointers. West Virginia led without making a single interior bucket in the first half.

Updated log5 odds

Initial = Odds of winning a national title after Friday
Self = Change in odds based on own game Saturday
Other = Change in odds based on other results Saturday
New = New odds of winning the national title after Saturday

(You’ll notice a slight change in the initial probability from what I had last night because I’m now using Friday’s Pythagorean Winning Percentage and Baylor crushed Saint Mary’s to improve their overall profile.)

Kentucky and Kansas St. were two of the most likely teams to win it all, so everyone who didn’t play today saw their odds improve.

Is it now finally plausible that Duke is the favorite to win it all?
Well, let’s wait to make that statement until after Sunday.