Saturday, March 20, 2010

Friday’s log5 Winners and Losers

After Round 1, here are the conference win-loss records:

2-0 Pac10
2-0 WCC
4-1 Big10
5-2 Big 12
4-2 ACC
4-4 Big East
2-2 SEC
2-2 MWC
1-2 A10
0-2 WAC
0-2 CUSA
6-13 Other

The big winner is the Big 12 with 5 teams advancing to the second round. But how did each conference’s total Final Four odds change on Friday?

Initial = Probability of reaching Final Four after Thursday
Self = Self-inflicted change on Friday
Other = Change in odds based on other results Friday
New = Probability of reaching Final Four after Friday

These odds use’s pre-tournament Pythagorean Winning Percentage. It does not include an adjustment for the Hummel injury or any other factor.

On the surface, the 3-2 day for the ACC wasn’t too bad. But Duke and Maryland were prohibitive favorites, and their wins did little to change the conference’s expectations of a Final Four bid. Instead, Clemson and Florida St., two teams with the power numbers to be real “sleepers” went down. The ACC also fell because Duke’s draw suddenly got worse. We can argue whether Louisville, Siena, and Utah St. are really better teams, but the season-long numbers say the advancement of California, Purdue, and Texas A&M means a harder draw for the Blue Devils. The ACC’s cumulative odds fell to 4th overall.

The Big East went 3-1 on Friday, but the main gains came because Syracuse won’t have to face the sensational defense of Florida St. on Sunday. Maybe Gonzaga is under-rated in Ken Pomeroy’s current formula, but the stats believe Gonzaga is a much better matchup for Syracuse.

The Big Ten also continues to make up ground. Not only did the four top teams advance, but with Cornell upsetting Temple, Wisconsin gets a much easier opponent in round 2.

Kentucky is also among the days biggest losers for the same reason. It is now much more likely the Wildcats will face Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen.