Tuesday, March 16, 2010

My New Log5 Odds

The initial log5 numbers didn’t pass the "eye test", but with my Kentucky adjustment and Ohio St. adjustment, here’s what I get:

I also post the South region with my adjustments, but I laugh at my own numbers here. I think the sample size is too small to really know that Purdue is this bad. And I’m particularly skeptical that slow-paced Notre Dame is really this good. Heck, if I ran a split for Minnesota for their last 5 games, it would say they were a Final Four contender too. But if you really believe Notre Dame has learned to play defense, this might not be far off.

I’ve made no changes to the West so you can still read that at BP.