I love the NCAA tournament and its one-and-done format. The only thing I love more is a burst-your-bubble game. That’s a situation where a team from a major conference can only get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. For that team, it is win or go home. But if they win the automatic bid, the eliminated team is unknown. And so millions of random fans across the country need to bite their fingernails and cheer for the juggernaut over the plucky underdog.
Today features several of these games, and tomorrow might too.
CR Bid Stealing? T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
16-0 Memphis 4-2 11-1 0 WWWWWWWWWWW 12-2 8 19 4 6
12-4 Tulsa 3-6 3-0 3 WWLLWWWWWWW 10-6 57 121 5 0
12-4 Missouri 7-4 4-2 0 WWWWWWLWLWW 9-6 10 107 4 1
5-11 Baylor 5-9 4-2 2 LLWLLWLLWWW 7-8 55 97 2 3
11-7 Arizona St. 7-4 5-3 1 WWWWWLLLWWW 11-5 24 138 2 3
9-9 USC 4-8 4-2 2 LLLWLLLWWWW 5-10 45 67 2 2
13-3 LSU 1-3 10-2 1 WWWWWWWWLLW 7-4 33 258 3 1
10-6 Tennessee 2-6 8-4 1 WLWWLLWWWLW 10-6 22 1 7 1
10-6 Auburn 2-3 4-6 1 LWWWWLWWWWW 6-7 58 213 2 1
9-7 Mississippi St. 1-3 7-5 4 WLLWLLLWWWW 8-7 72 185 1 3
Plus Temple and Duquense have already crashed the party by defeating Xavier and Dayton in the A-10 yesterday. So how are things going to shake out over the next two days?
Well, let me start by posting my projected tournament teams below in green. The key for these charts can be found at the end of this post. And I also see several contingency scenarios.
If Mississippi St. wins today, the committee will likely set up a contingency bracket for tomorrow where if Miss St. wins, Auburn is out.
If USC, Baylor, or Tulsa win, New Mexico is out. If multiple teams from that group win and San Diego St. does not win in the MWC final, San Diego St. is out. And if multiple teams win and San Diego St. wins, Michigan and Wisconsin may be out as well.
CR ACC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-3 North Carolina 6-2 8-1 0 WWWWWWLWWWW 13-2 3 89 1 4
11-5 Duke 8-5 8-1 0 LWLLWWWWWLW 10-5 2 42 4 4
11-5 Wake Forest 7-2 5-2 2 7-5 10-5 15 275 1 3
10-6 Florida St. 5-5 5-3 0 WWWLWWLWLWW 11-5 17 101 3 3
9-7 Clemson 4-5 4-1 2 6-6 10-5 29 115 2 1
9-7 Boston College 5-5 2-3 3 7-5 7-7 60 224 2 1
7-9 Maryland 4-7 4-3 2 LWWLWLWLLWW 6-8 49 125 3 3
7-9 Miami (Fla.) 3-8 3-2 2 4-8 6-8 64 218 2 1
7-9 Virginia Tech 2-10 4-2 2 4-8 9-9 61 166 2 2
I wouldn’t be shocked if Maryland missed the field, (no team with a sub-.500 record is automatic), but they’ve beaten Michigan St., North Carolina, and Wake Forest and I think they are in regardless of what happens the rest of the weekend.
CR Big 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
15-3 Michigan St 13-3 3-2 0 LWWWLWWWWWW 14-3 4 24 5 1
11-7 Illinois 9-6 3-2 0 WLWWWLWWLLW 10-5 19 110 2 2
11-7 Purdue 6-7 5-2 0 LLWWWWLWLLW 8-6 30 200 2 2
10-8 Ohio St. 6-8 4-1 0 WWWLLLWLWWW 6-6 35 129 2 2
10-8 Wisconsin 4-10 5-1 1 7-5 6-9 44 35 3 2
9-9 Michigan 6-11 4-1 1 6-6 6-10 42 59 5 1
10-8 Penn St. 6-9 1-1 1 6-6 7-8 68 311 1 1
9-9 Minnesota 5-8 4-2 0 5-7 6-7 40 193 1 1
8-10 Northwestern 6-10 0-1 2 6-6 4-9 76 219 2 0
Nowhere is going to be more controversial than the Big 10. I really think it comes down to two things that knock Minnesota and Penn St. out. First, they didn’t play anyone in the non-conference schedule. Minnesota’s NCSOS isn’t 300+ like Penn St., but they only played 2 teams in the RPI top 100 in the non-conference. And when you add in a 5-7 record down the stretch for the Gophers, I have them out. Michigan’s big non-conference wins, and 3 more wins against the RPI top 100 allow them to leap a very similar Penn St. team.
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-2 Kansas 9-3 5-2 2 9-3 7-7 9 33 6 1
13-3 Oklahoma 10-4 7-0 1 8-4 11-4 5 79 5 3
12-4 Missouri 7-4 4-2 0 WWWWWWLWLWW 9-6 10 107 4 1
9-7 Texas 6-6 3-4 1 7-5 9-9 38 117 4 1
9-7 Texas A&M 4-5 4-3 1 8-4 7-7 37 161 1 3
9-7 Oklahoma St 4-10 5-1 0 8-4 8-9 20 37 4 2
9-7 Kansas St 3-6 2-3 2 8-4 6-8 81 314 0 2
5-11 Baylor 5-9 4-2 2 LLWLLWLLWWW 7-8 55 97 2 3
No controversy here. Kansas St. has a terrible NCSOS. Case closed. Will Baylor give the Big 12 seven bids?
CR Big East T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
16-2 Louisville 8-3 8-2 0 WLWWWWWWWWW 11-3 7 32 3 3
15-3 Connecticut 8-3 9-1 0 9-3 13-2 6 92 3 3
15-3 Pittsburgh 8-3 8-1 0 10-2 9-4 1 18 2 4
13-5 Villanova 6-6 7-1 0 9-3 11-5 13 165 2 2
12-6 Marquette 3-8 7-0 1 5-7 8-7 36 152 3 1
11-7 Syracuse 6-5 6-3 0 LLWLWWWWWWW 10-5 11 29 2 2
10-8 West Virginia 3-8 9-3 0 8-4 12-8 21 56 1 6
10-8 Providence 2-8 4-5 0 5-7 6-9 73 171 1 4
8-10 Cincinnati 2-9 5-3 2 5-7 4-9 86 86 4 2
8-10 Notre Dame 2-12 3-1 1 6-6 6-11 77 225 4 0
7-11 Georgetown 5-8 2-4 2 4-8 5-9 62 10 4 1
Again, no controversy here. Back in January I thought this about my team Georgetown, “Wow, no matter what happens, we’re going to have 2 really nice wins over Memphis and UConn on our profile. You just can’t take those wins away from us.” Well, thanks for ending 4-8 in the last 12 guys, I guess you can make those wins obsolete after all.
CR Pac 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-4 Washington 6-5 4-2 1 9-3 7-7 14 41 2 2
13-5 UCLA 5-6 5-2 0 8-4 9-6 32 196 2 2
11-7 Arizona St 7-4 5-3 1 WWWWWLLLWWW 11-5 24 138 2 3
11-7 California 5-7 6-0 3 6-6 6-8 39 112 3 2
9-9 Arizona 6-10 2-2 1 7-5 5-10 63 63 5 2
9-9 USC 4-8 4-2 2 LLLWLLLWWWW 5-10 45 67 2 2
8-10 Wash. St. 3-11 2-2 2 5-7 7-8 90 160 3 2
I find it really hard to leave Arizona out. But that 7-5 last 12 mark masks 5 losses in the final 6. Plus, Arizona has been genuinely terrible away from home this year. Based on their tough Non-Conference scheduling, Arizona usually gets the benefit of the doubt with the committee, but with the situation in the A-10 yesterday, I have to drop them out.
CR SEC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-3 LSU 1-3 10-2 1 WWWWWWWWLLW 7-4 33 258 3 1
10-6 Tennessee 2-6 8-4 1 WLWWLLWWWLW 10-6 22 1 7 1
10-6 Auburn 2-3 4-6 1 LWWWWLWWWWW 6-7 58 213 2 1
10-6 South Carolina 0-4 7-4 1 7-5 5-7 59 288 1 1
9-7 Mississippi St 1-3 7-5 4 WLLWLLLWWWW 8-7 72 185 1 3
9-7 Florida 1-5 7-4 1 5-7 7-9 53 244 3 1
8-8 Vanderbilt 2-3 4-5 4 7-5 6-8 93 295 2 0
8-8 Kentucky 3-4 5-7 2 4-8 8-7 78 181 3 2
You have no idea how many conversations I’ve had with people where I have defended South Carolina over the last few weeks. The 0-4 mark against the RPI top 50 is not everything. But South Carolina could not afford to lose their opening tournament game and they did, and now they are headed to the NIT.
Florida and Kentucky have simply been unable to win down the stretch in a weaker than normal SEC.
As stated above, Auburn is in for now, but if Mississippi St. wins the tournament, Auburn is likely out.
CR MWC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
12-4 Utah 4-5 4-2 1 WWWWWWLLWWW 10-7 12 6 5 2
12-4 BYU 4-4 2-3 0 10-2 11-5 27 72 3 1
12-4 New Mexico 3-5 2-2 4 9-3 6-9 66 164 2 2
11-5 San Diego St 2-5 4-2 1 WWLWLLWWWWW 9-6 31 118 2 1
9-7 UNLV 4-5 4-2 3 6-6 6-6 65 150 2 4
UNLV falls to 6-6 down the stretch and that’s not going to get it done in the MWC. New Mexico simply could not afford to lose to Wyoming in the MWC tournament. I have them in now, but as I said at the start, I think by the end of the weekend, New Mexico is out.
CR A10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
12-4 Xavier 5-4 5-1 2 7-5 11-6 16 3 5 4
11-5 Dayton 3-2 5-2 3 7-5 8-7 28 134 2 3
11-5 Temple 2-5 3-3 3 WWWWWLLWWWW 12-9 34 23 4 3
11-5 Rhode Island 3-5 3-2 3 9-3 10-8 67 128 4 3
9-7 Duquesne 2-6 1-2 3 WLLWWLWLWWW 11-6 71 209 3 1
With Xavier and Dayton losing, the conference is now going to get 3 bids. But Temple only gets in if they beat Duquesne today.
CR CUSA T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
16-0 Memphis 4-2 11-1 0 WWWWWWWWWWW 12-2 8 19 4 6
12-4 Tulsa 3-6 3-0 3 WWLLWWWWWWW 10-6 57 121 5 0
CR WAC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS
14-2 Utah St 1-2 1-1 1 WWWLWLWLWWW 12-4 25 184
11-5 Nevada 2-3 0-1 7 LLWWWLWWWWW 10-5 80 78
Will CUSA get one bid or two?
I don’t see Utah St. getting in if they don’t win tonight.
CR Lost T50 N50 BL L12 RN RPI NCS
15-3 Butler 2-1 10-2 2 8-4 12-3 23 17
14-4 Creighton 2-2 7-3 2 11-1 11-5 41 145
10-4 St. Mary’s 2-3 1-1 2 8-4 13-5 47 91
18-2 Davidson 1-4 0-0 3 8-4 13-4 69 13
CR Won T50 N50 BL L12 RN RPI NCS
14-0 Gonzaga 7-3 1-1 1 11-1 15-3 26 16
14-4 Northern Iowa 4-3 6-0 7 8-4 12-6 56 113
16-2 Siena 0-4 7-1 2 10-2 12-7 18 2
Key
CR is conference record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the next group, RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses.
RN is road / neutral record.
RPI is RPI.
All the above figures are from Warren Nolan’s website.
L11+ is the teams record in the last 11 games for teams that are still alive in their conference tournaments.
NCS is non-conference strength-of-schedule from RPI forecast.
T is the number of non-conference games against the RPI Top 50.
N is the number of non-conference games against the next group, RPI 51-100.
I end with two caveats:
-I provide all the numbers, so form your own opinion.
-I haven’t looked at anyone’s bracket projections since Thursday. And I have purposely been flipping away anytime Joe Lunardi comes on TV. For some strange reason, (the same illogic that leads me to try to calculate NFL playoff scenarios myself), I prefer to look at the numbers myself rather than listen to Joe Lunardi or other experts. I provide these because I spent the time to look at them and figure some of you might want a 37th opinion.