Once again, I like to start championship week with the Nitty Gritty. I post this so that you understand my frame of reference. If on Thursday I say, “Virginia Tech’s quest for an NCAA tournament bid is officially over”, it is based on these numbers. But don’t take my opinion as fact. And don’t take Joe Lunardi’s as fact either. Look at the numbers and make up your own mind.
Key
CR is conference record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the next group, RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses.
RN is road / neutral record.
RPI is RPI.
All the above figures are from Warren Nolan’s website.
L11+ is the teams record starting with the 11th to last regular season game. I provide this because I assume that each team will play at least one conference tournament game.
NCS is non-conference strength-of-schedule from RPI forecast.
T is the number of non-conference games against the RPI Top 50.
N is the number of non-conference games against the next group, RPI 51-100.
Teams I project in the field are listed in green.
CR Big East T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
16-2 Louisville 8-2 6-3 0 WLWLWWWWWWW 9-3 9 32 2 4
15-3 Pittsburgh 9-2 7-1 0 WWWWWWWLWWW 9-3 1 18 2 4
15-3 Connecticut 8-3 8-0 0 WWWWWWLWWWL 13-1 4 92 3 2
13-5 Villanova 5-6 8-0 0 WWWWLWWWLWW 10-4 14 165 2 3
12-6 Marquette 5-7 5-0 1 WWLLWWWLLLL 7-6 30 152 3 1
11-7 Syracuse 6-6 3-2 0 LLWLLWLWWWW 7-5 17 29 3 1
10-8 West Virginia 3-7 7-3 0 LLWLWWWLWWL 10-7 26 56 1 6
10-8 Providence 2-8 4-4 0 WLLLWWLLWWL 5-8 70 171 1 4
8-10 Cincinnati 4-9 3-3 1 WLWWWLLWLLL 4-8 74 86 4 2
8-10 Notre Dame 3-11 2-1 1 LLLWWLWWLLW 5-10 72 225 4 0
7-11 Georgetown 4-8 3-4 1 LLWLLWLLWLW 5-8 48 10 3 2
Wins against the RPI Top 50 matter, but so do wins against RPI 51-100. That’s why West Virginia is in pretty good shape.
The bubble picture looks incredibly clear right now in the Big East and in several other leagues. I can’t remember the distinction between the “in” and “out” teams ever being so clear across the board.
CR ACC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-3 North Carolina 5-1 8-2 0 WWWWWWWLWWW 12-2 2 89 1 4
11-5 Duke 7-5 8-1 0 WLWLLWWWWWL 9-5 3 42 5 3
11-5 Wake Forest 6-1 6-2 2 LLWLWWLWWWW 10-4 10 275 1 3
10-6 Florida St. 4-5 6-3 0 LWWWLWWLWLW 10-5 16 101 3 3
9-7 Clemson 4-5 4-1 1 WWLWLWWLLWL 10-4 19 115 3 0
9-7 Boston College 4-4 3-3 3 WWWWLLWLWLW 6-6 57 224 2 1
7-9 Miami (Fla.) 2-7 4-2 2 LLLWLLLWWLW 6-7 53 218 2 1
7-9 Maryland 3-8 4-2 2 LWLWWLWLWLL 4-8 67 125 4 2
7-9 Virginia Tech 2-8 2-3 2 LLWWLLLWLLL 8-8 62 166 2 1
North Carolina has only 5 RPI Top 50 wins. That’s 3 fewer than Louisville, 4 fewer than Kansas, and 7 fewer than Michigan St. But at the very top, wins against other elite teams matter. And North Carolina has beaten Michigan St. and swept Duke.
I really thought the ACC was going to get 8 teams this year, but the bottom of the league came up and bit Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech.
Maryland’s tournament draw (facing Wake Forest in the quarters) is a great opportunity to get in, especially given how close Maryland played Wake last week. Winning a couple of games in the ACC tournament could solve all of Maryland’s flaws (late season losses, poor record away from home.)
Virginia Tech is virtually done at this point. They already have 8 losses in the final 12 and at 2-8 against the Top 50, I’m not even sure a win against North Carolina would be enough.
CR Big 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
15-3 Michigan St 12-2 3-3 0 WLWWWLWWWWW 13-3 6 24 4 2
11-7 Illinois 8-6 3-2 0 LWLWWWLWWLL 9-5 20 110 2 2
11-7 Purdue 6-7 4-2 0 WLLWWWWLWLL 7-6 31 200 2 2
10-8 Ohio St. 5-8 4-1 0 WWWWLLLWLWW 5-6 36 129 2 2
10-8 Wisconsin 4-9 5-1 1 LLWWWWWLWLW 6-8 38 35 3 2
10-8 Penn St. 6-8 1-1 1 WWLLLWWLWWL 6-7 63 311 1 1
9-9 Minnesota 5-7 3-2 0 WWLLWLLWLWL 5-6 41 193 1 1
9-9 Michigan 6-9 4-2 1 LLWLLWWLWLW 5-9 42 59 4 2
8-10 Northwestern 6-9 0-1 2 WWLLLWLWWWL 4-8 71 219 2 0
Despite projecting 8 in the field right now, I’m convinced the Big Ten won’t get more than 7 bids. I think at some point the committee is going to say the numbers are a little skewed and punish one of a number of teams for late season slide or weak NCSOS.
Either Penn St., Minnesota, or Michigan will likely be left out of the field, and it all depends who looks the worst this weekend. Since Minnesota plays a losable game against Northwestern, and then a Michigan St. team that has blown the Gophers out twice, I think the Gophers are the most likely to miss the field.
As far as the NCAA 1 seeds, I think the Big East gets two of them, North Carolina gets one, and the other one is clearly up for grabs this weekend. I don’t think Memphis can win out when the BCS conferences are as deep and strong as they are this year. (Michigan St. has 12 RPI Top 50 wins!) I can always be wrong, but I think Michigan St., Kansas, or Oklahoma will get the final 1 seed, in that order. I think if Michigan St. wins the Big Ten tournament, they’ll get it, and if they slip up the winner of the Big 12 tournament will get it.
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-2 Kansas 9-3 5-1 2 WWWLWWWWWLW 7-6 7 33 6 1
13-3 Oklahoma 8-3 9-0 1 WWWWWWLLWLW 11-3 5 79 3 5
12-4 Missouri 5-4 4-2 0 LWWWWWWWLWL 7-6 12 107 3 1
9-7 Texas A&M 4-5 4-3 0 WWLLLWWWWWW 7-6 28 161 1 3
9-7 Texas 6-6 3-3 1 LLLWWLWWLWL 7-8 35 117 4 2
9-7 Oklahoma St 3-9 5-1 0 LWLLWWWWWWL 6-8 25 37 4 2
9-7 Kansas St. 3-5 2-3 2 WWWWLWWLWLW 6-7 76 314 0 2
8-8 Nebraska 3-7 2-1 3 LWWWLWLLLWW 4-7 68 206 2 0
Do 2 losses outside the top 100 disqualify you from a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament? I don’t think so. I think if you look at the body of work for Kansas and combine a Big 12 tournament title with the Big 12 regular season title, they definitely have an argument. I’m more concerned that Kansas is only 7-6 away from home this year. But again, 3 wins in the Big 12 tournament would solve that problem.
At the risk of redundancy I think the difference between Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. is colossal at this point. Oklahoma St. has only 1 loss to teams above 50 in the RPI and a great non-conference schedule. Kansas St. has 5 losses to teams above 50 in the RPI and one of the weakest non-conference schedules.
CR Pac 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-4 Washington 4-5 6-1 1 WLWWWLWWWWW 6-6 13 41 3 1
13-5 UCLA 3-5 6-2 0 WWWLLWLWWWW 8-5 29 196 2 2
11-7 Arizona St 5-3 5-4 1 LLWWWWWLLLW 9-5 32 138 2 3
11-7 California 4-5 7-1 3 LLWWWWLWLWL 6-7 33 112 3 2
9-9 Arizona 5-8 4-3 1 WWWWWWLLLLW 5-9 52 63 5 3
9-9 USC 2-8 4-2 2 WWLLLWLLLWW 3-10 60 67 2 2
8-10 Wash. St. 3-8 2-4 2 WLLLWLLWWWL 6-7 89 160 3 2
I tried to make a case for USC on Saturday, but it just isn’t there. Really, it seems like the most intriguing story is the 4/5 game between Arizona and Arizona St. A loss would leave Arizona with 5 losses in the last 6 and only a 5-10 record away from home.
CR SEC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-3 LSU 3-3 7-2 1 WWWWWWWWWLL 6-4 37 258 3 1
10-6 Tennessee 7-6 3-4 1 WWLWWLLWWWL 9-6 24 1 8 0
10-6 South Carolina 1-5 6-2 1 WWLWWLWWLLW 5-6 50 288 1 1
10-6 Auburn 2-5 3-4 1 LLWWWWLWWWW 5-7 64 213 2 1
9-7 Florida 2-6 6-2 1 WLWLLWWLLLW 6-8 49 244 3 1
9-7 Mississippi St 2-3 5-5 4 LWWLLWLLLWW 6-7 82 185 0 4
8-8 Vanderbilt 2-6 4-2 3 LWWWLWLLWWW 6-7 85 295 1 1
8-8 Kentucky 4-6 3-4 2 LLLWWLWLLLL 7-6 80 181 3 2
Kentucky has 8 losses in the final 12 in a weak SEC. That more than makes up for a 4-6 record against the RPI top 50. This is a league I really can’t peg. I like South Carolina’s 6 wins against the RPI 51-100, but that’s about the only good thing on their resume. Will Florida still sneak in there? This tournament is wide open.
CR MWC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
12-4 Utah 4-5 5-2 2 WWWWWWWWLLW 8-7 11 6 5 3
12-4 BYU 4-3 3-3 0 LWWWWWLWWWW 10-4 21 72 3 2
12-4 New Mexico 3-4 2-3 3 WLWWWLWWWWW 6-8 58 164 1 3
11-5 San Diego St 1-5 3-2 1 WWWWLWLLWWW 7-6 43 118 2 1
9-7 UNLV 4-4 4-2 3 WWLLWWLWLWL 6-6 55 150 2 4
OK, UNLV is in serious trouble now. They are 6-5 in the last 12 and they are likely to fall to 6-6 if they don’t win the MWC tournament. That might be OK in the ACC, but that’s not going to cut in the MWC. And New Mexico still has only 5 quality wins to go with 10 losses on the year. So why are these teams in? Well, because there really isn’t anyone listed above with a good enough profile to merit a bid.
CR A10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
12-4 Xavier 5-3 6-1 2 WWWLLWLWWWL 10-5 15 3 5 4
11-5 Dayton 4-2 5-1 3 WWWLWWLLWLW 7-6 23 134 3 2
11-5 Rhode Island 2-5 4-2 2 WWWLWWWWWWL 10-7 65 128 3 4
11-5 Temple 1-5 5-3 3 WLWWWWWLLWW 10-9 40 23 4 3
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. If you believe in the power of the Pomeroy Rankings, you absolutely positively want to see your team facing Dayton in the NCAA tournament.
CR WCC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS
14-0 Gonzaga 6-3 2-1 1 11-1 15-3 34 16
10-4 St. Marys 2-3 1-1 2 LWLLWWWWWWL 13-5 45 91
CR MVC T50 N50 BL L12 RN RPI NCS
14-4 Northern Iowa 4-3 6-0 7 8-4 12-6 56 113
14-4 Creighton 3-2 7-3 2 11-1 11-5 39 145
11-7 Illinois St. 2-1 5-5 3 7-5 11-7 47 208
Northern Iowa and Gonzaga have earned their way in.
As of Monday afternoon, Joe Lunardi had Creighton out and St. Mary’s in. And while I understand the Patrick Mills argument for St. Mary’s, he was only 2 of 16 in the WCC final tonight. The committee has said that injured players need to not only come back, but that they have to demonstrate a strong contribution to the team. See Chris Wright of Dayton last year. In other words, I’m not holding my breath. Note that St. Mary’s does play a bonus game later this week.
Creighton still looks solid to me. 11 straight wins was impressive, even in a down MVC. If you want to put St. Mary’s in and knock someone out, why don’t you pick one of those Big Ten teams?
CR ALSO T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS
16-0 Memphis 4-3 9-0 0 WWWWWWWWWWW 12-2 8 19
15-3 Butler 2-1 10-1 2 WLWWWLLWWWW 12-3 18 17
14-2 Utah St 1-2 2-1 1 WWWWWLWLWLW 10-4 27 182
Will these leagues get one bid or two? Bubble teams everywhere are nervous. And I’m still not sure if Utah St. is in or not.
Utah St. should make like Siena and VCU and eliminate any doubt. Don’t be a Davidson and lose in your conference semifinals.
CR NEED AUTO T50 N50 BL L12 RN RPI NCS
16-2 Siena 0-4 5-1 2 10-2 12-7 22 2
14-4 VCU 2-1 1-4 4 9-3 9-8 59 50
18-2 Davidson 1-4 0-0 3 8-4 13-4 69 13
I'll be back with Big East tournament coverage after Tuesday's afernoon session. The major conference tournaments are here!