Thursday, March 19, 2009

PASE Expectations

I've talked a lot in the past about PASE, Performance Against Seed Expectations. The idea is that better seeds are more likely to win more games in the NCAA tournament. For example, 1 seeds win 3.42 games on average, 2 seeds win 2.41 games on average, ect.

And this year, even though the Big Ten and Big East each earned 7 bids, they obviously weren't of equal quality. Here's a look at how many wins each conference is expected to earn based on the seeds its teams received.

ExpW, Bids, Conference
16.38, 7, Big East
10.88, 7, ACC
8.18, 6, Big 12
7.18, 7, Big 10
5.99, 6, Pac10
2.47, 3, A-10
2.41, 1, CUSA
1.83, 2, MWC
1.50, 3, SEC
1.49, 1, WCC
0.83, 2, Horizon

That leaves a total of slightly less than 4 wins expected for the other 1 bid conferences in the field.

Obvious Note: Memphis is expected to win more games than the SEC and MWC.

I'm expecting the Big 10 to flame out pretty bady this weekend, but realize that it won't take very many wins for the Big 10 to meet expectations.