Every year, the biggest snub for the NCAA tournament is a team that plays well, but has a weak NCSOS. Last year the victim was Arizona St. who had a NCSOS above 300. But the more I look at the actual Team Sheets that the NCAA committee uses, I no longer think the perfect measure of weak scheduling is “NCSOS”. Yes, it predicts some weak non-conference schedules, see Penn St. and Kansas St., but NCSOS isn’t emphasized on the team sheets the NCAA committee uses. (Go to Crashing the Dance for examples.) Instead the committee breaks down opponents by RPI 1-50, 51-100 and highlights non-conference games in blue. And when you look at these sheets, the thing you mentally calculate is how many quality non-conference games each team played.
As a result, this week I’m adding two columns to the Nitty Gritty, total non-conference games against the RPI 1-50, and total non-conference games against RPI 51-100. What you immediately see is that some teams (like Minnesota) essentially didn’t schedule anyone. Minnesota avoided the really bad 300+ level teams, so the overall NCSOS is decent, but the lack of quality opponents for Minnesota is glaring.
Key
CR is conference record.
T50 is record vs the RPI Top 50.
N50 is record vs the next group, RPI 51-100.
BL is bad losses.
RN is road / neutral record.
RPI is RPI.
All the above figures are from Warren Nolan’s website.
L11+ is the teams record starting with the 11th to last regular season game. I provide this because I assume that each team will play at least one conference tournament game.
NCS is non-conference strength-of-schedule from RPI forecast.
T is the number of non-conference games against the RPI Top 50.
N is the number of non-conference games against the next group, RPI 51-100.
This week I decided to guess the tournament field. Remember, I’m not counting the “current” last 12, only the “actual” last 12 and this can cause my projections to look different from other websites. Teams I project as in are listed in green, but feel free to look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions.
CR ACC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
11-3 North Carolina 6-2 7-1 0 WWWWWWWLW 11-2 3 90 1 4
10-4 Duke 7-5 8-0 0 WLWLLWWWW 9-4 2 33 5 3
9-5 Wake Forest 7-2 3-2 1 LLWLWWLWW 9-4 17 285 1 2
9-5 Florida St. 5-6 5-1 0 LWWWLWWLW 10-4 16 105 3 3
8-6 Clemson 6-4 4-1 1 WWLWLWWLL 10-3 14 99 3 1
8-6 Boston College 4-6 4-1 2 WWWWLLWLW 6-5 49 212 2 1
7-7 Maryland 4-9 4-0 1 LWLWWLWLW 4-7 52 126 4 2
7-7 Virginia Tech 4-7 1-1 3 LLWWLLLWL 8-7 59 173 2 0
6-8 Miami (Fla.) 4-7 2-3 0 LLLWLLLWW 6-6 44 208 2 1
The ACC has 9 legitimate at large candidates. Look at how much more impressive Maryland’s non-conference schedule is than the other ACC teams. They played 6 RPI Top 100 teams from other conferences, while Virginia Tech sits at 2. Based on the finishing schedule and the non-conference schedule, it is hard to see a scenario where Virginia Tech makes the field.
CR Big East T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
15-2 Connecticut 9-2 4-0 0 WWWWWWLWWW 13-0 6 91 4 0
14-2 Louisville 7-2 5-3 0 WLWLWWWWW 8-3 10 32 2 4
13-3 Pittsburgh 7-2 6-1 0 WWWWWWWLW 9-3 1 22 2 4
12-4 Marquette 5-5 5-0 1 WWLLWWWLL 7-5 27 152 3 2
11-5 Villanova 5-6 5-0 0 WWWWLWWWL 9-4 15 176 2 3
10-7 Providence 2-7 3-4 0 WLLLWWLLWW 5-7 68 158 1 4
9-7 Syracuse 5-6 2-2 0 LLWLLWLWW 6-5 23 38 3 1
9-7 West Virginia 3-6 6-3 0 LLWLWWWLW 10-7 20 62 1 6
8-8 Cincinnati 4-9 3-2 0 WLWWWLLWL 4-7 53 86 4 2
7-9 Notre Dame 3-10 1-1 1 LLLWWLWWL 5-10 69 227 4 0
6-10 Georgetown 4-8 3-3 1 LLWLLWLLW 5-7 40 10 3 2
The Big East will probably get some outstanding seeds in the tournament, produce a great number of Sweet Sixteen teams, but not get nearly as many tournament teams as some people expect. The Big East looks a lot like the ACC from past years where Duke and UNC would get 1 seeds, but none of the bubble teams from the ACC would make the field.
Providence’s resume is better than it appears here. The two wins against #53 Cincinnati mean the record against top level teams is slightly better than the 2-7 would indicate. But right now, I still think Providence, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame still have work to do.
A lot of people are going to jump on West Virginia for a 3-6 record against the Top 50, and that will hurt their seeding. But with 9 wins against the Top 100, they are in pretty solid shape.
One thing you can say for the Big East bubble teams, no one played fewer than 4 quality non-conference opponents.
CR Big 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-3 Michigan St 11-2 3-3 0 WLWWWLWWW 12-3 4 25 4 2
11-5 Purdue 7-6 3-1 0 WLLWWWWLW 7-5 24 179 3 1
11-6 Illinois 8-6 2-1 0 LWLWWWLWWL 9-4 19 131 2 1
9-7 Wisconsin 4-8 5-1 1 LLWWWWWLW 6-7 31 28 3 2
9-7 Penn St 5-8 1-1 0 WWLLLWWLW 6-6 64 325 1 1
8-8 Ohio St 6-8 2-1 0 WWWWLLLWL 4-6 42 125 3 1
8-8 Minnesota 4-6 3-2 0 WWLLWLLWL 5-6 37 220 1 1
8-9 Michigan 5-9 4-2 1 LLWLLWWLWL 4-9 48 61 4 2
7-9 Northwestern 5-8 0-1 2 WWLLLWLWW 3-7 81 251 2 0
Weak non-conference scheduling will ultimately keep the Big Ten from grabbing a lot of bids. Penn St., Minnesota, and Northwestern each only played 2 teams in the RPI Top 100, while Illinois only played 3 quality non-conference foes.
Now, you can’t always blame a team for weak non-conference scheduling. Illinois didn’t know Vanderbilt and Georgia were going to be terrible. (Well, maybe they did.) But I do find it unfortunate that the committee doesn’t consider the intent in scheduling, only the result.
I’d love to put Michigan in the field based on the overall profile, but 6 losses already in the final 12, and a horrible road record (see loss at Iowa), and Michigan is going to get dinged unless they get hot quick.
CR Pac 10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-4 Washington 5-6 4-0 1 WLWWWLWWW 6-6 12 41 3 1
11-5 UCLA 4-6 6-1 0 WWWLLWLWW 8-5 26 186 2 3
10-6 Arizona St 6-3 3-4 0 LLWWWWWLL 9-5 33 141 2 3
10-6 California 5-4 5-1 3 LLWWWWLWL 5-6 36 100 3 2
8-8 Arizona 5-7 4-3 1 WWWWWWLLL 5-9 47 67 5 3
8-9 Wash. St. 4-8 1-3 2 WLLLWLLWWW 6-6 86 164 3 2
7-9 USC 3-9 3-0 3 WWLLLWLLL 3-10 58 70 2 1
Once again for Arizona, it is all about the non-conference schedule. A sprinkling of wins in 8 quality non-conference games is the only thing that makes up for a questionable road record.
USC has two winnable home games against the Oregon schools to end the year, but it may be too little too late.
CR Big 12 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-1 Kansas 8-4 5-0 1 WWWLWWWWW 7-5 7 46 7 0
12-2 Oklahoma 7-2 9-0 1 WWWWWWLLW 11-2 5 66 3 5
11-3 Missouri 4-3 4-2 0 LWWWWWWWL 7-5 13 101 3 1
8-6 Texas 6-5 2-3 1 LLLWWLWWL 7-7 38 120 4 2
8-6 Oklahoma St 3-8 4-1 0 LWLLWWWWW 6-7 30 42 4 2
8-6 Kansas St. 3-4 2-3 2 WWWWLWWLW 6-6 73 315 0 2
7-7 Texas A&M 4-5 3-3 0 WWLLLWWWW 6-6 35 162 2 2
6-8 Nebraska 3-7 1-1 3 LWWWLWLLL 3-7 74 194 2 0
5-9 Baylor 3-9 3-0 2 LLLLLWLLW 4-7 63 94 3 2
Kansas amazingly played 7 top 50 teams in the non-conference schedule. No wonder we all thought they were rebuilding. They were just playing a brutal schedule. And, against the weaker Big 12 competition, they’ve delivered.
Kansas St. is the obvious bubble candidate to be dinged for a weak non-conference schedule. Two non-conference games against the RPI top 100 may have made sense with Michael Beasley leaving, but it is going to hurt them in the committee’s final evaluation.
CR SEC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
13-1 LSU 3-3 7-0 1 WWWWWWWWW 6-3 25 250 3 1
9-5 Tennessee 6-6 1-4 0 WWLWWLLWW 8-6 21 1 8 0
9-5 South Carolina 1-4 5-1 2 WWLWWLWWL 4-6 43 282 1 1
8-6 Florida 2-6 4-1 1 WLWLLWWLL 6-7 50 243 3 2
8-6 Kentucky 4-6 2-2 2 LLLWWLWLL 7-5 66 177 4 1
Kentucky has 6 losses already in the Final 12 and could very well be out.
With only 2 quality non-conference games, South Carolina could really use a win against Tennessee this week. I know South Carolina’s 1-4 record against the RPI Top 50 looks bad, but the 5 wins against the next group makes up for it to some degree.
I could very well see the SEC getting only 4 teams in the field.
CR MWC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
11-3 Utah 4-5 7-1 1 WWWWWWWWL 8-6 9 8 5 3
10-4 BYU 4-3 5-3 0 LWWWWWLWW 9-4 22 73 3 3
10-4 New Mexico 2-4 3-3 3 WLWWWLWWW 5-8 71 153 1 3
9-5 San Diego St 1-5 3-3 0 WWWWLWLLW 7-6 46 117 2 1
8-6 UNLV 5-3 4-3 2 WWLLWWLWL 6-5 51 147 3 3
At what point does UNLV fall out of the field? Not yet.
CR A10 T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
11-3 Xavier 4-3 6-1 1 WWWLLWLWW 10-4 11 2 5 4
11-4 Rhode Island 2-5 4-2 1 WWWLWWWWWW 10-7 54 139 3 4
10-4 Dayton 3-1 5-1 3 WWWLWWLLW 7-5 28 122 2 3
9-5 Temple 1-5 4-2 4 WLWWWWWLL 9-9 45 35 4 2
If you want to attack my projections, why don’t you start with Rhode Island? Hey, they even lost to Providence. But here’s the deal. Not only is Rhode Island on fire, losing only one game in the final stretch so far, but no one has more quality losses than Rhode Island. In fact, only one of Rhode Island’s losses was by more than 6 points. They had a 3 point loss at Duke, a one point loss at Providence, a 4 point loss against Oklahoma St., a 3OT loss to St. Joe’s, a 2 point loss to Xavier, a bad 3 point loss at Richmond, and a 6 point loss at Temple. I think someone on the committee will see the close losses early, see a team playing well lately, and want to put them in field. But they need about 3 more wins (including the A10 tournament) to have a shot at an argument.
CR CUSA T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-0 Memphis 4-3 7-0 0 WWWWWWWWW 11-2 8 18 5 3
10-4 Tulsa 2-6 3-0 3 WWWWLLWWW 7-6 62 103 5 0
10-4 UAB 1-6 1-3 0 LWWWWWWLW 8-8 41 43 5 1
Why do I even bother to list Tulsa and UAB? Eh, let’s just list one for the Horizon League:
CR Horizon T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
15-3 Butler 2-1 7-1 2 WWLWWWLLWWW 11-3 18 13 3 4
CR MVC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-4 Creighton 1-0 9-4 2 LWWWWWWWWWW 10-4 39 146 1 5
14-4 Northern Iowa 1-3 7-1 6 WWWWLWLLLWW 9-6 70 111 2 2
Northern Iowa’s 6 bad losses can’t be overcome, but 8 wins against the Top 100 is impressive.
CR WCC T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS T N
14-0 Gonzaga 3-4 4-0 1 WWWLWWWWWW 13-3 34 16 7 2
10-4 St. Marys 2-2 1-1 2 WLLWLLWWWWW 12-4 55 95 2 2
CR OTHER T50 N50 BL L11+ RN RPI NCS
13-2 Utah St. 1-1 4-3 0 WWWWWLWLWL 10-4 32 182
16-2 Siena 0-4 4-1 2 WWWWLWWWWLW 9-7 29 3
15-3 W. Kent. 1-1 2-3 4 WLWWWWLWWWW 8-8 57 69
14-4 VCU 0-1 4-3 5 WLWLWWLWLWW 8-8 65 60
17-2 Davidson 1-4 1-0 2 WWWLWWLLWW 11-3 67 11
The teams in the "Other" category are only in as automatic qualifiers.