Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Offense is Entertaining

For past NCAA tournaments, I’ve said this:

Based on Notre Dame’s offensive firepower and lack of defense, Greg Gumbel is going to say this, “Well your game between the Fighting Irish and their opponent has gotten out of hand. It’s a 17 point lead so we’re going to shift coverage to this other game.” And then, 2 minutes later “Things have tightened up between the Fighting Irish and their opponent. Let’s take you back to that game.”

And even though West Virginia ended up winning tonight, the Big East tournament second round match-up between Notre Dame and West Virginia delivered exactly that kind of game. West Virginia leads by 20. Now it is 9 points. Now West Virginia is up by 20. Now it is 7 points. Rarely does a 7 point lead seem so precarious.

Now that Notre Dame is officially out of the NCAA tournament field, which team is most likely to repeat this type of performance? Well, let’s find an NCAA tournament team with a close scoring margin, lots of offense, no defense, and a non-Big Ten pace.

To find the top candidates let’s take John Gasaway’s conference efficiency ratings and add up the offense and defense.

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.08 1.09 2.17 Notre Dame

1.08 1.11 2.19 BC
1.10 1.09 2.19 Arizona
1.12 1.04 2.16 Marquette
1.09 1.07 2.16 Oklahoma St
1.09 1.07 2.16 Cal

I throw Marquette in there despite a larger scoring margin because without Dominic James, the scoring margin is likely to be less. (Hey moron, didn’t you see the St. John’s game today. Oh, right.)

Oklahoma St. is also a likely candidate due to their strong 3 point shooting and lack of a post presence. Hey, speaking of Oklahoma St., they were also in action tonight.

Notice how this post covers three conference tournament games from today without saying anything about the action? Well here’s a real comment on Oklahoma St.’s comeback win over Iowa St:

“How can there be that many mo-hawks in one game?”

Illinois is the Least Entertaining Team in the Nation

Not only do high offense, bad defense teams make for big comebacks, they can also make for fun games. Offense is exciting. Let’s add the total efficiency rating for all 73 BCS teams.

By this measure, UCLA is the most entertaining team in the nation. And Illinois is the least entertaining team. (Hmm, seems about right to me.)

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.17 1.04 2.21 UCLA
1.08 1.11 2.19 BC
1.10 1.09 2.19 Arizona
1.17 1.01 2.18 Pitt
1.16 1.01 2.17 NorthCarolina
1.08 1.09 2.17 NotreDame
1.07 1.10 2.17 Providence
1.06 1.11 2.17 Stanford
1.05 1.11 2.16 NCState
1.12 1.04 2.16 Marquette

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.09 1.07 2.16 OklahomaSt.
1.09 1.07 2.16 Cal
1.05 1.10 2.15 Baylor
1.13 1.02 2.15 Oklahoma
0.97 1.17 2.14 Oregon
1.06 1.07 2.13 Miami
1.08 1.05 2.13 TexasA&M
1.02 1.11 2.13 TexasTech
1.10 1.03 2.13 Florida
1.09 1.04 2.13 Tennessee

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.04 1.08 2.12 VirginiaTech
1.10 1.02 2.12 Syracuse
1.02 1.10 2.12 Cincinnati
1.07 1.05 2.12 OhioSt.
1.05 1.07 2.12 OleMiss
1.10 1.01 2.11 Villanova
1.03 1.08 2.11 SetonHall
1.09 1.01 2.10 Clemson
1.03 1.07 2.10 Northwestern
1.07 1.03 2.10 Texas

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.10 1.00 2.10 Washington
1.09 1.01 2.10 ArizonaSt.
0.92 1.17 2.09 DePaul
1.07 1.01 2.08 WakeForest
1.08 1.00 2.08 Wisconsin
1.03 1.05 2.08 Alabama
1.02 1.05 2.07 KansasSt.
1.04 1.03 2.07 USC
0.98 1.09 2.07 Arkansas
1.08 0.98 2.06 Duke

OE, DE, Total, Team
0.99 1.07 2.06 Iowa
1.03 1.03 2.06 MississippiSt.
1.02 1.04 2.06 Vanderbilt
0.93 1.12 2.05 Indiana
0.99 1.06 2.05 Maryland
1.10 0.95 2.05 Connecticut
0.96 1.09 2.05 OregonSt.
1.08 0.97 2.05 LSU
1.06 0.98 2.04 WestVirginia
1.01 1.03 2.04 Georgetown

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.01 1.03 2.04 Michigan
1.00 1.04 2.04 PennSt.
1.08 0.96 2.04 Missouri
1.09 0.94 2.03 Kansas
1.01 1.02 2.03 WashingtonSt.
0.96 1.06 2.02 Virginia
0.95 1.07 2.02 St.John's
0.95 1.07 2.02 IowaSt.
0.92 1.10 2.02 Colorado
1.04 0.98 2.02 Auburn

OE, DE, Total, Team
1.02 0.99 2.01 SouthCarolina
1.02 0.98 2.00 Kentucky
1.06 0.93 1.99 MichiganSt.
1.00 0.98 1.98 FloridaSt.
1.06 0.92 1.98 Louisville
0.93 1.05 1.98 S.Florida
0.92 1.06 1.98 Rutgers
1.02 0.95 1.97 Purdue
0.98 0.98 1.96 Minnesota
0.97 0.98 1.95 Nebraska
0.92 1.02 1.94 GeorgiaTech
0.88 1.06 1.94 Georgia
0.98 0.93 1.91 Illinois